On the Timing of Marriage and Childbearing: Family Formation Pathways Among Immigrants in Switzerland.

This paper examines childbearing in and outside of marriage as a manifestation of the Second Demographic Transition among immigrant populations in Switzerland. Based on full-population register data, we simultaneously analyse fertility and partnership changes at different stages of the migration process. Results from a multistate event history model show that most of the differences in family formation patterns between migrant groups and natives are in the sequencing of marriage and first birth among childless unmarried women. Out of wedlock family trajectories prove to be a common experience for European migrants, but a sustainable family pathway only among natives, as well as among immigrants from France, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Among married women, it is the risk of a third birth that marks the differences between groups; first and second birth rates are relatively similar across migrant groups. Distinguishing between the transition patterns of newly arrived immigrants and settled immigrants (characterised by various residence durations) support the disruption hypothesis among EU migrants and the interrelated life events hypothesis among non-EU groups. Family size and the partnership context of fertility highlight which family regime prevails in different population subgroups and the role that immigrants play in the Second Demographic Transition and family transformation in Europe.

The Global Decline in Human Fertility: The Post-Transition Trap Hypothesis.

Over the past half a century many countries have witnessed a rapid fall in total fertility rates, particularly in the world's most advanced economies including the industrial powerhouses of Eastern Asia and Europe. Such nations have now passed through the first and second demographic transitions and are currently exhibiting fertility rates well below the replacement threshold of 2.1, with no sign of recovery. This paper examines the factors responsible for driving these demographic transitions and considers their impact on both fertility and fecundity (our fundamental capacity to reproduce). I argue that because the first demographic transition was extremely rapid and largely driven by socioeconomic factors, it has had no lasting impact on the genetic/epigenetic underpinnings of human fecundity. However, the second demographic transition will be different. A series of conditions associated with low fertility societies, including relaxed selection pressure for high-fertility genotypes, the indiscriminate use of assisted reproductive technologies to treat human infertility, and environmental contamination with reproductive toxicants, may impact our genetic constitution in ways that compromise the future fecundity of our species. Since any fundamental change in the genetic foundations of human reproduction will be difficult to reverse, we should actively pursue methods to monitor human fecundity, as sub-replacement fertility levels become established across the globe.

Are Rural Areas Holdouts in the Second Demographic Transition? Evidence From Canada and the United States.

A central premise of the first demographic transition theory is that demographic change would occur more slowly in rural than urban areas. Few studies, however, have investigated whether rural areas remain holdouts during the second demographic transition. To address this gap, this study (1) examines trends among rural and urban families in Canada and the United States over a 30-year period and (2) determines whether compositional differences in demographic, socioeconomic, and religious factors explain current differences between rural and urban families. We find that rural Canadian women continue to have, on average, 0.6 more children than urban women. However, rural families do not trail behind urban families on any other indicator of family change. In fact, rural women in both countries are now significantly more likely to cohabit and roughly 10 percentage points more likely to have children outside of marriage than urban women. These differences are largely explained by lower levels of education and income among rural American women and fewer immigrants in rural Canada. Examining family change through a rural-urban lens fills important empirical gaps and yields novel insights into current debates on the fundamental causes of ongoing family change in high-income countries.

Stratified pathways to Italy's "latest-late" transition to adulthood.

During the last few decades, Western societies have undergone substantial social and demographic changes, and the transition to adulthood progressively moved from an early, contracted, and simple pattern to a late, protracted, and complex one. These trends have been extensively analyzed under the Second Demographic Transition framework, emphasizing the role of individual agency and ideational change. A growing parallel literature underlines social stratification, the gender revolution, and contextual opportunities as driving forces. This paper builds on this emerging literature to analyze trends of the transition to adulthood in Italy, a salient social and demographic context among the "lowest-low" fertility countries. Drawing from the European Social Survey 2018 data, I use Sequence Analysis to compute a taxonomy of ideal types of transition to adulthood and analyze their evolution across cohorts. These analyses show that the emergence of a late and protracted transition to adulthood, associated with "lowest-low" fertility levels, is stratified by gender and socioeconomic background. This study contributes to the growing literature on the social stratification of life course trajectories and the relevance of contextual opportunities and constraints by analyzing the transition to adulthood in a low-opportunity context from a longitudinal, stratified perspective.

Implications of the Theory of Basic Human Values for the Second Demographic Transition: Interdependence and Individualism in the Era of Self-Fulfillment.

I examine the implications of a modern psychological theory of values for the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). The SDT derives its values theory and measurement from Maslow, who noted that resource-rich environments cause value shifts towards personal-focused growth values. However, Maslow has been replaced by the theory of basic human values (TBHV) which distinguishes person and social-focused growth values. This distinction has two important implications for the SDT. First, some individualistic and self-expressive values identified by the SDT are not growth but basic need motivated and therefore functions of resource-poor environments. Second, the TBHV values on interdependence and independence are strongly influenced by gender and reflect preferences for family and care or career. Therefore, these values can be used to address critiques of the SDT based on the stalled gender revolution. I show that distinguishing values as described in the TBHV can be useful for the SDT. I find that benevolence (interdependence) is positively and openness to change (autonomy/stimulation) is negatively related to marriage in the Netherlands using longitudinal panel data and discrete event history models.

The changing social gradient of marriage and cohabitation in seven Latin American countries.

While research shows that cohabitation has increased significantly among highly educated individuals in Latin America, much less is known about how the relationship between educational attainment and first union formation has changed over time and across the region's countries. Accordingly, this paper describes the changes across cohorts in the type of first union (marriage or cohabitation) entered by women from seven Latin American countries. It also analyzes trends in the relationship between women's education and the type of first union within and between these countries. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, life tables, discrete-time event history models, and predicted probabilities were estimated to analyze the changing determinants of first-union formation. The results pointed to an overall increase in first-union cohabitation over time, with some important differences across countries. The multivariate analysis suggested that women's education influences the type and sequencing of the first union, with socioeconomically disadvantaged women increasingly likely to transition to early unions and enter cohabitation rather than marriage.

A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia, Indonesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation. This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition (SDT) theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility, marriage and family change in Indonesia. Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998, we found emerging demographic features typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition. These include fertility below replacement in some regions; increasing age at first marriage, non-marriage, and divorce rates; and growing diversity in household/family forms. As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically, culturally, and demographically heterogeneous, these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner. Further, these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multiple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change pertaining to marriage and the family. We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage, fertility, and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature. Emerging ideational change embodying individualism, secularism, and post-materialism-originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe-can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions. As a demographic framework, the SDT theory is an important and useful starting point. But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition, as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.

Is there a Chinese pattern of the second demographic transition?

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a useful theoretical framework for explaining the recent trend in many countries of very low fertility combined with alternative union and family types. Although past studies have observed the SDT in many Western societies, whether it is applicable to East Asia remains unclear. Capitalizing on data from the Chinese Census and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of key behavioral and ideational indicators of the SDT. We find that union formation in China has trended increasingly toward patterns commonly observed in the West, including delayed age of marriage and the common practice of premarital cohabitation. While having a lowest-low fertility rate, China has not experienced rising nonmarital childbirths, a key component of the SDT. However, we observe growing tolerance toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Marriages remain relatively stable in China, especially among couples with children. Taken together, our analysis suggests that typically coincident changes in patterns of family behavior associated with the SDT are not occurring simultaneously in China. Moreover, ideational changes are preceding behavioral changes, particularly in attitudes toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Our research suggests a different pattern of the SDT in China, which has been heavily influenced by Confucian culture.

Childbearing Biographies as a Method to Examine Diversity and Clustering of Childbearing Experiences: A Research Brief.

Due to increasing heterogeneity in if, when, and under what conditions women have children, the timing, spacing, and other demographic aspects of childbearing have drastically changed in the US over the past century. Existing science tends to examine demographic aspects of childbearing separately, creating an incomplete understanding of how childbearing patterns are distributed at the population level. In this research brief, we develop the concept of childbearing biographies to emphasize that multiple childbearing characteristics cluster together. We analyze nationally representative US data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79; N=4,052). Using eight childbearing variables (e.g., age at first birth, number of children, whether unmarried at any birth), we use Mixed-Mode Latent Class Analysis (MM-LCA) and identify five classes, or childbearing biographies: (1) early compressed childbearing, (2) staggered childbearing, (3) extended high parity childbearing, (4) later childbearing, and (5) married planned childbearing. A childbearing biography approach highlights the increasingly heterogeneous contexts of parenthood today, showing how women with similar characteristics around one aspect of childbearing (e.g., early age at first birth) can also be highly divergent from each other when taking into consideration other childbearing characteristics. In showing this complexity, we highlight that a childbearing biography approach has the potential to shed new light on widening inequality among contemporary midlife women, with implications for aging and population health and well-being.

The changing relationship between socio-economic background and family formation in four European countries.

Family formation, a process that includes union formation, fertility, and their timing and order, has become increasingly diverse and complex in Europe. We examine how the relationship between socio-economic background and family formation has changed over time in France, Italy, Romania, and Sweden, using first wave Generations and Gender Survey data. Competing Trajectories Analysis, a procedure which combines event-history analysis with sequence analysis, allows us to examine family formation as a process, capturing differences in both the timing of the start of family formation and the pathways that young adults follow. Regarding timing, socio-economic background differences in France and Sweden have remained relatively small, whereas in Italy and Romania higher parental education has become more strongly associated with postponement. Pathways tend to diverge by socio-economic background, particularly in Sweden and France. These results indicate that while family formation patterns have changed, they continue to be stratified by socio-economic background.

Higher parental socioeconomic status accelerates sexual debut: Evidence from university students in Italy.

In this paper we analyze how the timing and type (protected or unprotected) of sexual debut are influenced by parental socioeconomic status (SES). We argue that depending on whether a "parental control" or a "cultural openness" mechanism prevails, one could find a postponing or an anticipating effect of higher parental SES on children's timing of sexual debut. By applying event-history techniques to unique data from the two releases of the Sexual and Emotional Life of Youths survey (2000 and 2017), we found a clear accelerating effect of higher parental SES-parental education and father's social class-on the sexual debut of Italian university students. The effect is partly mediated by family characteristics related to the cultural openness mechanism, such as low parental religiosity, greater communication about sex, and parental permissiveness; on the contrary, we only found weak support for the parental control explanation. Higher parental education is associated with a higher likelihood of protected first sexual intercourse-and especially of condom use-even if more precocious. Our results dispute the North American- and Anglo-Saxon-driven finding that high-SES children postpone their sexual debut.

Consensual conjugal unions among higher educated women: understanding the heterogeneity in the Brazilian context / Uniões conjugais consensuais entre mulheres com educação de alto nível: entendendo a heterogeneidade do contexto brasileiro / Uniones consensuadas entre mujeres con mayor educación: comprender la heterogeneidad del contexto brasileño

Abstract Consensual unions have increased greatly in Brazil over the last few decades. Initially, restricted to less-educated groups, they have now been observed in all educational groups, leading some to suggest a diffusion of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in the country. In this paper, we examine the characteristics of women choosing consensual unions in Brazil between 1980 and 2010, with a focus on differentials by education. The results show that higher educated women, when compared to the least educated group, prefer marriage over consensual union both in 1980 and 2010. In addition, we show a growing difference between educational groups over time for choosing informal unions, as the probabilities for higher educated women to choose this type of union have increased less than for lower educated ones. For women with high educational levels in 2010, the likelihood of being in a consensual union is greater than among those from lower socioeconomic groups and among blacks, browns, and Catholics. Our results question the explanations given by the SDT for the expansion of consensual unions in upper socioeconomic groups in Brazil.

Resumo As uniões consensuais têm crescido muito no Brasil nas últimas décadas. Este aumento tem sido observado em todos os grupos educacionais, o que pode sugerir sinais da difusão da segunda transição demográfica (SDT) no país. Neste artigo, são examinadas as características das mulheres em uniões consensuais no Brasil, entre 1980 e 2010, com foco nos diferenciais segundo escolaridade. Os resultados mostram que as mulheres com maior nível de escolaridade preferem o casamento formal (e não a união consensual) tanto em 1980 quanto em 2010. Além disso, observou-se uma diferença crescente entre os grupos de escolaridade ao longo do tempo, ou seja, a chance de as mulheres mais escolarizadas escolherem a união consensual cresceu menos do que entre as menos escolarizadas. Para as mulheres com maior escolaridade em 2010, a chance de estar em união consensual é maior entre aquelas de grupos socioeconômicos mais baixos e entre pretas, pardas e católicas. Os resultados questionam as explicações dadas pela STD para a expansão das uniões consensuais entre grupos socioeconômicos com maior escolaridade no Brasil.

Resumen Las uniones consensuadas han aumentado mucho en Brasil en las últimas décadas. Inicialmente restringidas a grupos menos educados, ahora se observan en todos los grupos educativos, lo que lleva a algunos a sugerir una difusión de la segunda transición demográfica (STD) en el país. En este artículo, examinamos las características de las mujeres que eligen uniones consensuadas en Brasil entre 1980 y 2010, con un enfoque en las diferencias por educación. Los resultados muestran que las mujeres con mayor educación, en comparación con el grupo menos educado, prefieren el matrimonio a la unión consensuada tanto en 1980 como en 2010. Además, mostramos una diferencia creciente entre los grupos educativos a lo largo del tiempo para elegir uniones informales, ya que las probabilidades de que las mujeres de mayor educación opten por este tipo de unión crecieron menos que para los de menor educación. Para las mujeres con altos niveles educativos en 2010, la probabilidad de estar en una unión consensuada es mayor entre las de grupos socioeconómicos más bajos, y entre los negras, morenas y católicas. Nuestros resultados cuestionan las explicaciones dadas por la STD para la expansión de las uniones consensuales a grupos socioeconómicos más altos en Brasil.

Three-Stage Transitional Theory: Egalitarian Gender Attitudes and Housework Share in 24 Countries.

How does the association between gender attitudes and housework share vary across countries and time? We examine the second demographic transition as it unmasks in the association between gender attitudes and housework participation. Using data of the 2002 and 2012 International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) for 24 countries, we find that the association between gender attitudes and housework share became stronger over time in most countries, signifying that the Second Demographic Transition was in place. The results also show that the association varied across the 24 countries, reaching an equilibrium in many but at different stages. Our findings suggest that equilibria in the domestic division of labour take various forms and paces in the ISSP countries.

Having a child within a cohabiting union in Europe and North America: What is the role of parents' socio-economic status?

The link between parental socio-economic status (SES) and the likelihood of having a birth in cohabitation or in marriage varies considerably across countries. Previous studies have referred to the pattern of disadvantage perspective and the second demographic transition theory to explain this cross-national variation. Yet no study has directly tested the explanatory power of both theories in this context. In the current study, hypotheses are formulated about the influence of economic inequality and norms regarding family formation on this relationship. The hypotheses are tested in 19 European and North American countries, using data of the Generations and Gender Survey and four other datasets. The analyses show that in societies that have more traditional family formation norms, women with lower parental SES are more likely to have a birth in cohabitation whereas such differences are not found in less traditional societies. The influence of economic inequality is less clear-cut.

"I have no idea:" Uncertainty in high school seniors' marital expectations.

Despite changes in marriage's role in young adulthood, youth in the United States report similar or higher expectations to marry than those from decades before, and very few report explicit expectations to not marry. Marital expectations may be one way to understand if the U.S. is indeed experiencing a second demographic transition, and uncertainty in those answers may provide additional information beyond simply yes and no. Using public-use data from 1976 to 2017 from the 12th Grade Monitoring the Future annual cross-sectional surveys, I found that young men and women were more likely to report uncertainty than explicitly expect not to marry, and that boys were generally more uncertain than girls. Slight changes in past decades suggest that boys are becoming more certain regarding marriage, however, and gender differences have diminished over time. Additionally, between 2008 and 2017, I found that boys with the greatest educational prospects were the least likely to report uncertainty about marriage. Uncertainty is common in adolescent marital expectations and should be considered as a possibly informative answer to questions about hypothetical marriages. Results suggest that marriage continues to hold strong meaning in adolescents' ideals.

A Nation of Bastards? Registered Cohabitation, Childbearing, and First-Marriage Formation in Iceland, 1994-2013.

Nowhere in Europe is extramarital childbearing more pervasive than in Iceland. Roughly, 70% of children born in 2018 were conceived outside of marriage, thereof 83% of firstborn, which, on the surface, puts Iceland at the vanguard of a development often associated with a second demographic transition. In this study, we investigate the union formation behaviour of Icelandic women during a period of 20 years (1994-2013) with the objectives of gaining insight into the interplay of childbearing, registered cohabitation, and marriage and to enhance our understanding of the function of registered cohabitation in the family-building process. We use administrative population register data, covering the childbearing and marital history of the total female population born in Iceland during 1962-1997. The data are analysed by means of event history techniques and presented as annual indices of first-registered cohabitation and first-marriage formation, respectively. We find indications of forceful postponement of registering cohabitation over time, but a stable portion of around 80% of women registered cohabitation before any first marriage or age 46. Around 70% of women married before age 46, and the standardized marriage rates remained relatively stable during most of our study period. Our findings suggest that within a context such as the Icelandic one, most people tend to marry, regardless of the prevalence of cohabitation. We propose that registered cohabitation should be seen as providing a semi-regulated union status for prospective parents in relation to childbearing. Marriage on the other hand could be seen as providing an elevated union status to couples.

Country differences in the link between gender-role attitudes and marital centrality: Evidence from 24 countries.

This study investigates factors that could explain why the association between the egalitarian gender-role attitudes and the attitudes toward the importance of marriage (marital centrality) differs across societies. Using data from the International Social Survey Programme for 24 countries in 2002 and 2012 and multilevel modeling, we explore whether the Gender Revolution and the Second Demographic Transition frameworks could explain the country-level differences in the association between gender-role attitudes and marital centrality. We find that the negative association between the egalitarian gender-role attitudes and marital centrality is stronger in countries with a higher gender equality level and a higher fertility level. This work highlights the importance of considering the progress of the gender revolution and the second demographic transition to understand the relationship between gender equality and family formation.

Union Histories of Dissolution: What Can They Say About Childlessness?

This study investigates how the association between union dissolution and childlessness depends on life course context. Data on union histories and fertility are taken from the Norwegian GGS. To observe union histories up to age 45, I include men and women born 1927-1962. I further condition on having experienced at least one union dissolution before age 45, giving a study sample of 883 men and 1110 women. To capture the life course context of union dissolutions, I group union histories similar in timing, occurrence and ordering of events using sequence analysis. Eight well-clustered groups of union histories are distinguished. Four consist of life courses dominated by a long first or second union and display low levels of childlessness. The highest proportion childlessness is found among individuals who entered a first union late and dissolved it quickly. Groups characterised by long spells alone after a dissolution or many short unions also displayed a high proportion of childlessness. In contrast to findings from the USA, neither union trajectories nor their link with childlessness varies by educational attainment.

Cohabitation and Marital Expectations among Single Millennials in the U.S.

Cohabitation has surpassed marriage as the most common union experience in young adulthood. We capitalize on a new opportunity to examine both marital and cohabitation expectations among young single women in recently collected, nationally representative data (National Survey of Family Growth 2011-2015) (n=1,467). In the U.S. there appears to be a 'stalled' Second Demographic Transition as single young adult (ages 18-24) women have stronger expectations to marry than cohabit and the vast majority expects to, or has, already married. Among young women expecting to marry, the majority (68%) expect to cohabit with their future spouse but about one-third expect to follow a traditional relationship pathway into marriage (to marry without cohabiting first). In addition, women from disadvantaged backgrounds report the lowest expectations to marry, but there is no education gradient in expectations to cohabit. Marriage expectations follow a "diverging destinies" pattern, which stresses a growing educational divide, but this is not the case for cohabitation expectations. Our results, based on recently collected data, provide insight into the contemporary context of union formation decision-making for the millennial generation.

Cross-National Comparisons of Union Stability in Cohabiting and Married Families With Children.

Increases in cohabitation, nonmarital childbearing, and partnership dissolution have reshaped the family landscape in most Western countries. The United States shares many features of family change common elsewhere, although it is exceptional in its high degree of union instability. In this study, we use the Harmonized Histories to provide a rich, descriptive account of union instability among couples who have had a child together in the United States and several European countries. First, we compare within-country differences between cohabiting and married parents in education, prior family experiences, and age at first birth. Second, we estimate differences in the stability of cohabiting and married parents, paying attention to transitions into marriage among those cohabiting at birth. Finally, we explore the implications of differences in parents' characteristics for union instability and the magnitude of social class differences in union instability across countries. Although similar factors are associated with union instability across countries, some (prior childbearing, early childbearing) are by far more common in the United States, accounting in part for higher shares separating. The factors associated with union instability-lower education, prior childbearing, early childbearing-also tend to be more tightly packaged in the United States than elsewhere, suggesting greater inequality in resources for children.