Modeling COVID-19 spread using multi-agent simulation with small-world network approach.

BACKGROUND: The rapid global spread of COVID-19 has seriously impacted people's daily lives and the social economy while also posing a threat to their lives. The analysis of infectious disease transmission is of significant importance for the rational allocation of epidemic prevention and control resources, the management of public health emergencies, and the improvement of future public health systems. METHODS: We propose a spatiotemporal COVID-19 transmission model with a neighborhood as an agent unit and an urban spatial network with long and short edge connections. The spreading model includes a network of defined agent attributes, transformation rules, and social relations and a small world network representing agents' social relations. Parameters for each stage are fitted by the Runge-Kutta method combined with the SEIR model. Using the NetLogo development platform, accurate dynamic simulations of the spatial and temporal evolution of the early epidemic were achieved. RESULTS: Experimental results demonstrate that the fitted curves from the four stages agree with actual data, with only a 12.27% difference between the average number of infected agents and the actual number of infected agents after simulating 1 hundred times. Additionally, the model simulates and compares different "city closure" scenarios. The results showed that implementing a 'lockdown' 10 days earlier would lead to the peak number of infections occurring 7 days earlier than in the normal scenario, with a reduction of 40.35% in the total number of infections. DISCUSSION: Our methodology emphasizes the crucial role of timely epidemic interventions in curbing the spread of infectious diseases, notably in the predictive assessment and evaluation of lockdown strategies. Furthermore, this approach adeptly forecasts the influence of varying intervention timings on peak infection rates and total case numbers, accurately reflecting real-world virus transmission patterns. This highlights the importance of proactive measures in diminishing epidemic impacts. It furnishes a robust framework, empowering policymakers to refine epidemic response strategies based on a synthesis of predictive modeling and empirical data.

Modeling Misinformation Spread in a Bounded Confidence Model: A Simulation Study.

Misinformation has posed significant threats to all aspects of people's lives. One of the most active areas of research in misinformation examines how individuals are misinformed. In this paper, we study how and to what extent agents are misinformed in an extended bounded confidence model, which consists of three parts: (i) online selective neighbors whose opinions differ from their own but not by more than a certain confidence level; (ii) offline neighbors, in a Watts-Strogatz small-world network, whom an agent has to communicate with even though their opinions are far different from their own; and (iii) a Bayesian analysis. Furthermore, we introduce two types of epistemically irresponsible agents: agents who hide their honest opinions and focus on disseminating misinformation and agents who ignore the messages received and follow the crowd mindlessly. Simulations show that, in an environment with only online selective neighbors, the misinforming is more successful with broader confidence intervals. Having offline neighbors contributes to being cautious of misinformation, while employing a Bayesian analysis helps in discovering the truth. Moreover, the agents who are only willing to listen to the majority, regardless of the truth, unwittingly help to bring about the success of misinformation attempts, and they themselves are, of course, misled to a greater extent.

The free energy landscape of small-world networks of cells.

The properties of organs, tissues, organoids, and other systems of cells, are influenced by the spatial localization and distribution of their elements. Here, we used networks to describe distributions of cells on a surface where the small-world coefficient (SW) of the networks was varied between SW~1 (random uniform distributions) and SW~10 (clustered distributions). The small-world coefficient is a topological measure of graphs: networks with SW>1 are topologically biased to transmit information. For each system configuration, we then determined the total energy U as the sum of the energies that describe cell-cell interactions - approximated by a harmonic potential. The graph of energy (U) across the configuration space of the networks (SW) is the energy landscape: it indicates which configuration a system of cells will likely assume over time. We found that, depending on the model parameters, the energy landscapes of 2D distributions of cells may be of different types: from type I to type IV. Type I and type II systems have high probability to evolve into random distributions. Type III and type IV systems have a higher probability to form clustered architectures. A great many of simulations indicated that cultures of cells with high initial density and limited sensing range could evolve into clustered configurations with enhanced topological characteristics. Moreover, the strongest the binding between cells, the greater the likelihood that they will assume configurations characterized by finite values of SW. Results of the work are relevant for those working the field of tissue engineering, regenerative medicine, the formation of in-vitro-models, the analysis of neuro-degenerative diseases.

The effective enhancement of information in 3D small-world networks of biological neuronal cells.

The cardiovascular system, the kidney, or the brain, are examples of complex systems - where the properties of the systems arise because of the layout of cells in those systems. One way to characterize systems is using networks, where elements and interactions of the systems are represented as nodes and links of a graph. Network's topology can be, in turn, measured by the small-world coefficient. Small world networks feature increased clustering and shorter paths compared to random or periodic networks of the same size. This suggests that systems with small world attributes can also efficiently transport signals, nutrients, or information within their body. While several reports in literature have illustrated that real biological systems are small-world, yet little is known about how information varies as a function of the small-world-ness (sw) of three dimensional graphs. Here, we used a model of the brain to estimate quantitatively the information processed in 3D networks. In the model, nodes of the graph are neuronal units capable to receive, integrate and transmit signals to other neurons of the system in parallel. The information encoded in the signals was then extracted using the techniques of information theory. In simulations where the topology of networks of400nodes was varied over large intervals, we found that in the0-9swrange information scales linearly with the small world coefficient, with a five-fold increase. Results of the paper and review of the existing literature on model organisms suggest that a small-world architecture may offer an evolutionary advantage to biological systems.

Hierarchical Wilson-Cowan Models and Connection Matrices.

This work aims to study the interplay between the Wilson-Cowan model and connection matrices. These matrices describe cortical neural wiring, while Wilson-Cowan equations provide a dynamical description of neural interaction. We formulate Wilson-Cowan equations on locally compact Abelian groups. We show that the Cauchy problem is well posed. We then select a type of group that allows us to incorporate the experimental information provided by the connection matrices. We argue that the classical Wilson-Cowan model is incompatible with the small-world property. A necessary condition to have this property is that the Wilson-Cowan equations be formulated on a compact group. We propose a p-adic version of the Wilson-Cowan model, a hierarchical version in which the neurons are organized into an infinite rooted tree. We present several numerical simulations showing that the p-adic version matches the predictions of the classical version in relevant experiments. The p-adic version allows the incorporation of the connection matrices into the Wilson-Cowan model. We present several numerical simulations using a neural network model that incorporates a p-adic approximation of the connection matrix of the cat cortex.

Human Cancer Cell Radiation Response Investigated through Topological Analysis of 2D Cell Networks.

Clonogenic assays are routinely used to evaluate the response of cancer cells to external radiation fields, assess their radioresistance and radiosensitivity, estimate the performance of radiotherapy. However, classic clonogenic tests focus on the number of colonies forming on a substrate upon exposure to ionizing radiation, and disregard other important characteristics of cells such their ability to generate structures with a certain shape. The radioresistance and radiosensitivity of cancer cells may depend less on the number of cells in a colony and more on the way cells interact to form complex networks. In this study, we have examined whether the topology of 2D cancer-cell graphs is influenced by ionizing radiation. We subjected different cancer cell lines, i.e. H4 epithelial neuroglioma cells, H460 lung cancer cells, PC3 bone metastasis of grade IV of prostate cancer and T24 urinary bladder cancer cells, cultured on planar surfaces, to increasing photon radiation levels up to 6 Gy. Fluorescence images of samples were then processed to determine the topological parameters of the cell-graphs developing over time. We found that the larger the dose, the less uniform the distribution of cells on the substrate-evidenced by high values of small-world coefficient (cc), high values of clustering coefficient (cc), and small values of characteristic path length (cpl). For all considered cell lines, [Formula: see text] for doses higher or equal to 4 Gy, while the sensitivity to the dose varied for different cell lines: T24 cells seem more distinctly affected by the radiation, followed by the H4, H460 and PC3 cells. Results of the work reinforce the view that the characteristics of cancer cells and their response to radiotherapy can be determined by examining their collective behavior-encoded in a few topological parameters-as an alternative to classical clonogenic assays.

A SEIARQ model combine with Logistic to predict COVID-19 within small-world networks.

Since the COVID-19 epidemic, mathematical and simulation models have been extensively utilized to forecast the virus's progress. In order to more accurately describe the actual circumstance surrounding the asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 in urban areas, this research proposes a model called Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Asymptomatic-Recovered-Quarantine in a small-world network. In addition, we coupled the epidemic model with the Logistic growth model to simplify the process of setting model parameters. The model was assessed through experiments and comparisons. Simulation results were analyzed to explore the main factors affecting the spread of the epidemic, and statistical analysis that was applied to assess the model's accuracy. The results are consistent well with epidemic data from Shanghai, China in 2022. The model can not only replicate the real virus transmission data, but also anticipate the development trend of the epidemic based on available data, so that health policy-makers can better understand the spread of the epidemic.

Evaluating the Alterations Induced by Virtual Reality in Cerebral Small-World Networks Using Graph Theory Analysis with Electroencephalography.

Virtual reality (VR), a rapidly evolving technology that simulates three-dimensional virtual environments for users, has been proven to activate brain functions. However, the continuous alteration pattern of the functional small-world network in response to comprehensive three-dimensional stimulation rather than realistic two-dimensional media stimuli requires further exploration. Here, we aimed to validate the effect of VR on the pathways and network parameters of a small-world organization and interpret its mechanism of action. Fourteen healthy volunteers were selected to complete missions in an immersive VR game. The changes in the functional network in six different frequency categories were analyzed using graph theory with electroencephalography data measured during the pre-, VR, and post-VR stages. The mutual information matrix revealed that interactions between the frontal and posterior areas and those within the frontal and occipital lobes were strengthened. Subsequently, the betweenness centrality (BC) analysis indicated more robust and extensive pathways among hubs. Furthermore, a specific lateralized channel (O1 or O2) increment in the BC was observed. Moreover, the network parameters improved simultaneously in local segregation, global segregation, and global integration. The overall topological improvements of small-world organizations were in high-frequency bands and exhibited some degree of sustainability.

What Drives the Assembly of Plant-associated Protist Microbiomes? Investigating the Effects of Crop Species, Soil Type and Bacterial Microbiomes.

In a field experiment we investigated the influence of the environmental filters soil type (i.e. three contrasting soils) and plant species (i.e. lettuce and potato) identity on rhizosphere community assembly of Cercozoa, a dominant group of mostly bacterivorous soil protists. Plant species (14%) and rhizosphere origin (vs bulk soil) with 13%, together explained four times more variation in cercozoan beta diversity than the three soil types (7% explained variation). Our results clearly confirm the existence of plant species-specific protist communities. Network analyses of bacteria-Cercozoa rhizosphere communities identified scale-free small world topologies, indicating mechanisms of self-organization. While the assembly of rhizosphere bacterial communities is bottom-up controlled through the resource supply from root (secondary) metabolites, our results support the hypothesis that the net effect may depend on the strength of top-down control by protist grazers. Since grazing of protists has a strong impact on the composition and functioning of bacteria communities, protists expand the repertoire of plant genes by functional traits, and should be considered as 'protist microbiomes' in analogy to 'bacterial microbiomes'.

Health behavior homophily can mitigate the spread of infectious diseases in small-world networks.

Research has repeatedly shown that the spread of infectious diseases is influenced by properties of our social networks. Small-world like structures with densely connected clusters bridged by only a few connections, for example, are not only known to diminish disease spread, but also to increase the chance for a disease to spread to any part of the network. Clusters composed of individuals who show similar reactions to avoid infections (health behavior homophily), however, might change the effect of such clusters on disease spread. To study the combined effect of health behavior homophily and small-world network properties on disease spread, we extend a previously developed ego-centered network formation model and agent-based simulation. Based on more than 80,000 simulated epidemics on generated networks varying in clustering and homophily, as well as diseases varying in severity and infectivity, we predict that the existence of health behavior homophilous clusters reduce the number of infections, lower peak size, and flatten the curve of active cases. That is because agents perceiving higher risks of infections can protect their cluster from infections comparatively quickly by severing only a few bridging ties. A comparison with epidemics in static network structures shows that the incapability to act upon risk perceptions and the low connectivity between clusters in static networks lead to diametrically opposed effects with comparatively large epidemics and prolonged epidemics. These finding suggest that micro-level behavioral adaptation to health risks mitigate macro-level disease spread to an extent that is not captured by static network models of disease spread. Furthermore, this mechanism can be used to design information campaigns targeting proxies for groups with lower risk perception.

How does government regulation promote green product diffusion in complex network? An evolutionary analysis considering supply side and demand side.

China has launched a series of regulation policies that promote the diffusion of green products to drive the green development of resources and environment. This study proposes an evolutionary game model of green product diffusion by providing a joint "supply side - demand side" regulatory framework. It simulates the effects of government regulation on green product diffusion in complex network, the related numerical simulation analysis is carried out through a case of electric vehicles diffusion. The study confirms that (1) On the supply side, green subsidies, environmental taxes, and carbon trading market can successfully increase green product diffusion to 0.84, 0.7, and 0.65. On the demand side, green consumption vouchers, as well as publicity and education can increase green product diffusion to 0.7 and 0.67. (2) Among the order-based regulatory instruments, high environmental taxes and poor participation in carbon trading market can inhibit the spread of green products, while low green consumption vouchers fail to stimulate the purchase of green products. It is crucial to enhance emotion-based regulatory instruments like publicity and education. (3) Neither order-based nor emotion-based regulation can achieve complete diffusion of green products. This study provides new insights of green product diffusion under government regulation and its implementation effects.

The Influence of a School Social Network Intervention on Adolescent's Health Behaviors: A Gender-Specific Agent-Based Model.

Introduction: Adolescence is a crucial stage for health behavior development, which is associated with health in adulthood. School closures caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have exposed adolescents to an increased risk of obesity due to a lack of physical activity. Although social network interventions provide an effective approach for promoting health-related behavior, current practices neglect gender differences in adolescent behavioral patterns and emotional preferences. The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of centrality-based methods integrated with of gender contexts in a social network intervention to improve adolescent's health behavior. Methods: We developed an agent-based model (ABM) that supports the small-world characteristics of adolescent social networks. Health-related data for junior middle school students (n = 234, 48% girls) were collected in November 2018, 2019 and 2020 in Tianjin, China. We simulated multiple network-based interventions with different criteria for influential agents (i.e., betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and PageRank) and a random condition. The rules for generating peer influence and accelerating behavioral changes were based on the diffusion of innovations theory, with gender specifications. Results: After the school closures, there was a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among adolescents, with a greater increase in girls than in boys (+8.85% vs. +1.65%, p < 0.001). Simulations showed that centrality-based network interventions were more effective than the random condition (average 6.17% per tick vs. 5.22% per tick, p < 0.05), with a higher efficiency in girls than boys (average 3.68% vs. 2.99% per tick, p < 0.05). PageRank outperformed other centrality conditions at the population level (6.37% per tick, p < 0.05). In girls, betweenness centrality was the best method (3.85% per tick, p < 0.05), while in boys, PageRank still had the greatest efficiency (3.21% per tick, p < 0.05). Conclusions: We found evidence for gender differences in the negative impact of COVID-19-related school closures and the potential for centrality-based social network interventions to affect adolescent health behavior. Therefore, we emphasize the importance of gender-specific targeting strategies to further promote health-related school programs in the post-pandemic era.

A new SEIAR model on small-world networks to assess the intervention measures in the COVID-19 pandemics.

A new susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatically infected-removed (SEIAR) model is developed to depict the COVID-19 transmission process, considering the latent period and asymptomatically infected. We verify the suppression effect of typical measures, cultivating human awareness, and reducing social contacts. As for cutting off social connections, the feasible measures encompass social distancing policy, isolating infected communities, and isolating hub nodes. Furthermore, it is found that implementing corresponding anti-epidemic measures at different pandemic stages can achieve significant results at a low cost. In the beginning, global lockdown policy is necessary, but isolating infected wards and hub nodes could be more beneficial as the situation eases. The proposed SEIAR model emphasizes the latent period and asymptomatically infected, thus providing theoretical support for subsequent research.

Simple mathematical models for controlling COVID-19 transmission through social distancing and community awareness.

The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. Also, its origin is still mysterious. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19 taking into consideration social distancing and community awareness. Both situations of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous population were considered. Based on the calculations, a sufficient degree of social distancing based on its reproductive ratio is found to be effective in controlling COVID-19, even in the absence of a vaccine. With a vaccine, social distancing minimizes the sufficient vaccination rate to control the disease. Community awareness also has a great impact in eradicating the virus transmission. The model is simulated on small-world networks and the role of social distancing in controlling the infection is explained.

Impacts of autapse on chaotic resonance in single neurons and small-world neuronal networks.

Chaotic resonance (CR) is a new phenomenon induced by an intermediate level of chaotic signal intensity in neuronal systems. In the current study, we investigated the effects of autapse on the CR phenomenon in single neurons and small-world (SW) neuronal networks. In single neurons, we assume that the neuron has only one autapse modelled as electrical, excitatory chemical and inhibitory chemical synapse, respectively. Then, we analysed the effects of each one on the CR, separately. Obtained results revealed that, regardless of its type, autapse significantly increases the chaotic resonance of the appropriate autaptic parameter's values. It is also observed that, at the optimal chaotic current intensity, the multiple CR emerges depending on autaptic time delay for all the autapse types when the autaptic delay time or its integer multiples match the half period or period of the weak signal. In SW networks, we investigated the effects of chaotic activity on the prorogation of pacemaker activity, where pacemaker neurons have different kinds of autapse as considered in single neuron cases. Obtained results revealed that excitatory and electrical autapses prominently increase the prorogation of pacemaker activity, whereas inhibitory autapse reduces or does not change it. Also, the best propagation was obtained when the autapse was excitatory. This article is part of the theme issue 'Vibrational and stochastic resonance in driven nonlinear systems (part 2)'.

Social network architecture and the tempo of cumulative cultural evolution.

The ability to build upon previous knowledge-cumulative cultural evolution-is a hallmark of human societies. While cumulative cultural evolution depends on the interaction between social systems, cognition and the environment, there is increasing evidence that cumulative cultural evolution is facilitated by larger and more structured societies. However, such effects may be interlinked with patterns of social wiring, thus the relative importance of social network architecture as an additional factor shaping cumulative cultural evolution remains unclear. By simulating innovation and diffusion of cultural traits in populations with stereotyped social structures, we disentangle the relative contributions of network architecture from those of population size and connectivity. We demonstrate that while more structured networks, such as those found in multilevel societies, can promote the recombination of cultural traits into high-value products, they also hinder spread and make products more likely to go extinct. We find that transmission mechanisms are therefore critical in determining the outcomes of cumulative cultural evolution. Our results highlight the complex interaction between population size, structure and transmission mechanisms, with important implications for future research.

The effect of social distancing on the reach of an epidemic in social networks.

How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible-infected-removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the 'global' level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.

On the effect of neuronal spatial subsampling in small-world networks.

The analysis of real-world networks of neurons is biased by the current ability to measure just a subsample of the entire network. It is thus relevant to understand if the information gained in the subsamples can be extended to the global network to improve functional interpretations. Here we showed how average clustering coefficient (CC), average path length (PL), and small-world propensity (SWP) scale when spatial sampling is applied to small-world networks. This extraction mimics the measurement of physical neighbors by means of electrical and optical techniques, both used to study neuronal networks. We applied this method to in silico and in vivo data and we found that the analyzed properties scale with the size of the sampled network and the global network topology. By means of mathematical manipulations, the topology dependence was reduced during scaling. We highlighted the behaviors of the descriptors that, qualitatively, are shared by all the analyzed networks and that allowed an approximated prediction of those descriptors in the global graph using the subgraph information. In contrast, below a spatial threshold, any extrapolation failed; the subgraphs no longer contain enough information to make predictions. In conclusion, the size of the chosen subgraphs is critical to extend the findings to the global network.

Revealing the Role of Divergent Thinking and Fluid Intelligence in Children's Semantic Memory Organization.

The current theories suggest the fundamental role of semantic memory in creativity, mediating bottom-up (divergent thinking) and top-down (fluid intelligence) cognitive processes. However, the relationship between creativity, intelligence, and the organization of the semantic memory remains poorly-characterized in children. We investigated the ways in which individual differences in children's semantic memory structures are influenced by their divergent thinking and fluid intelligence abilities. The participants (mean age 10) were grouped by their levels (high/low) of divergent thinking and fluid intelligence. We applied a recently-developed Network Science approach in order to examine group-based semantic memory graphs. Networks were constructed from a semantic fluency task. The results revealed that divergent thinking abilities are related to a more flexible structure of the semantic network, while fluid intelligence corresponds to a more structured semantic network, in line with the previous findings from the adult sample. Our findings confirm the crucial role of semantic memory organization in creative performance, and demonstrate that this phenomenon can be traced back to childhood. Finally, we also corroborate the network science methodology as a valid approach to the study of creative cognition in the developmental population.

Classification of pure conduct disorder from healthy controls based on indices of brain networks during resting state.

Conduct disorder (CD) is an important mental health problem in childhood and adolescence. There is presently a trend of revealing neural mechanisms using measures of brain networks. This study goes further by presenting a classification scheme to distinguish subjects with CD from typically developing healthy subjects based on measures of small-world networks. In this study, small-world networks were constructed, and feature data were generated for both the CD and healthy control (HC) groups. Two methods of feature selection, including the F-score and feature projection with singular value decomposition (SVD), were used to extract the feature data. Furthermore, and importantly, the classification performances were compared between the results from the two methods of feature selection. The selected feature data by SVD were employed to train three classifiers-least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), naive Bayes and K-nearest neighbour (KNN)-for CD classification. Cross-validation results from 36 subjects showed that CD patients can be separated from HC with a sensitivity, specificity and overall accuracy of 88.89%, 100% and 94.44%, respectively, by using the LS-SVM classifier. These findings suggest that the combination of the LS-SVM classifier with SVD can achieve a higher degree of accuracy for CD diagnosis than the naive Bayes and KNN classifiers. Graphical abstract.