Population ageing and social expenditure in Australia.

Questions concerning the impact of demographic aging on the dependency burden in Australia are examined. "This article shows that the social expenditure to GDP ratio is heavily dependent on assumptions made about real spending growth, productivity growth, unemployment and participation rates. It produces a framework that makes the assumptions underlying the projections clear and enables the results of changing the assumptions to be easily compared. The projected ratios are significantly higher than those obtained in previous Australian studies."

[Consequences of population aging on social expenditures]. / L'incidence du vieillissement demographique sur les depenses sociales.

The impact of demographic aging on social expenditures is examined, with particular reference to Canada. "The merits of four of the mechanisms or means that are proposed to alleviate the additional cost of aging are reviewed: economic growth, increase in the labour force participation rate, economies of scale and [restructuring] of social expenditures. We bring up many uncertainties regarding the mechanisms or means proposed. Therefore we should not take for granted that the effect of aging will be easily absorbed." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Aging and social expenditures in Italy: some issues associated with population projections.

"After describing the main results of the recent Italian population projections, and some possible consequences...aging may have on social expenditures, this paper focuses on attempts to improve the accuracy of development assumptions, with special regard to natural components. Emphasis is placed on the importance of applying specific methodological tools to define self-explanatory assumptions for fertility and mortality and to produce projections which could be considered, with reasonable limitations, as real forecasts."

The relative impact of demographic change on future social expenditure increases: an example from Cyprus.

"Taking the case of Cyprus, the authors examine the likely implications for social expenditure, under various scenarios of benefit and cost increases, of projected population changes up to the year 2020. The increased expenditure resulting solely from demographic changes could be easily absorbed if unit costs remain unchanged or rise no faster than overall productivity, but not if recent rapid increases in unit costs and in services continue."

The growing burden of an ageing population?

The author asserts that the problems posed by demographic aging in developed countries have been overstated, noting instead that "the transition to an older population will be gradual enough to allow time to plan. The importance of the shift in the so-called 'dependency ratio' is exaggerated because 'dependency' is unsatisfactorily defined. Nor is there clear evidence that as more people live to be older health and social service costs will rise accordingly: people are remaining fit to later ages and there is strong evidence that they can continue to make a positive contribution to the economy as workers and as consumers until relatively late ages. Social services can also be redesigned to maximize the independence of the elderly while minimizing costs."

[Demographic aging and social expenditures: a future crisis for the economies of the developed countries]. / Vieillissement demographique et depenses socials. Un futurible de crise pour les economies les plus developpees.

PIP: The main findings of a recent World Bank study on the impact of demographic aging on future social expenditures in developed countries up to the year 2025 are summarized.^ieng

[The Japanese economy and the aging of the population]. / L'economie japonaise face au vieillissement de sa population.

PIP: The consequences of the projected demographic aging that will occur in Japan in the coming years are reviewed. The author notes that although the process of demographic aging will begin later than in other developed countries, it is likely to accelerate faster and cause problems in the cost of social services. The legislation implemented in 1983 to protect the financial health of the pension fund and the health system from the consequences of these demographic trends is described. Consideration is also given to the likely effects of demographic aging on wage and saving rates.^ieng

[Socioeconomic consequences of the aging of the population]. / A nepesseg oregedesenek nehany tarsadalmi--gazdasagi osszefuggese

PIP: The author addresses some of the economic and social implications of the aging of the population in Hungary. The study is based on a paper prepared within the scope of the project on Economic and Social Implications of Changing Age Distribution in Selected ECE Eountries carried out by the Secretariat of the UN Economic Commission for Europe (Population Activities Unit, GEAD) with support from the UNFPA. The 1st part of this study outlines the demographic characteristics of the aging process. In the 2nd part of the paper, various kinds of dependency ratios are presented, and changes in the age distribution of the working age population are reviewed. To estimate the influence of aging on the level of total consumption, age profiles of consumption are applied, and changes in the costs of selected social services are assessed through age-cost profiles of education, health services, and old age pensions. (author's)^ieng

The effect of immigrants on natives' incomes through the use of capital.

"This paper deals with questions about the effects of immigrants on three types of capital: the private capital immigrants work with, the public (government) capital that immigrant workers use, and the public capital used for services by immigrants." The geographic focus is on the United States. The authors conclude that although the average cost to natives in 1975 dollars to provide services for immigrants is 4,172 dollars, this amount "is considerably smaller than the benefits of immigrants to natives through their relatively low use of welfare services and their relatively high contribution of taxes." Comments by Jacob Mincer (pp. 95-7) are included.