Survival trends for left and right sided colon cancer using population-based SEER database: A forty-five-year analysis from 1975 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Survival differences between left-sided colon cancer (LSCC) and right-sided colon cancer (RSCC) has been previously reported with mixed results, with various study periods not accounting for other causes of mortality. PURPOSE: We sought to assess the trends in colon cancer cause- specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) based on sidedness. METHOD: Fine-Gray competing risk and Cox models were used to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cohort from 1975 to 2019. Various interval periods were identified based on the timeline of clinical adoption of modern chemotherapy (1975-1989, interval period A; 1990-2004, B; and 2005-2019, C). RESULTS: Of the 227,637 patients, 50.1% were female and 46.2% were RSCC. RSCC was more common for African Americans (51.5%), older patients (age ≥65; 51.4%), females (50.4%), while LSCC was more common among Whites (53.1%; p < 0.001), younger patients (age 18-49, 64.6%; 50-64, 62.3%; p < 0.001), males (58.1%; p < 0.001). The Median CSS for LSCC and RCC were 19.3 and 16.7 years respectively for interval period A (1975-1989). Median CSS for interval periods B and C were not reached (more than half of the cohort was still living at the end of the follow-up period). Adjusted CSS was superior for LSCC versus RSCC for the most recent interval period C (HR 0.89; 0.86-0.92; p < 0.001). LSCC consistently showed superior OS for all study periods. Stage stratification showed worse CSS for localized and regional LSCC in the earlier study periods, but the risk attenuated over time. However, left sided distant disease had superior CSS per stage for all interval periods. OS was better for LSCC irrespective of stage, with gradual improvement over time. CONCLUSION: LSCC was associated with superior survival compared to right sided tumors. With the adoption of modern chemotherapy regimens, prognosis between LSCC and RSCC became more divergent in favor of LSCC. Colon cancer clinical trials should strongly consider tumor sidedness as an enrollment factor.

Long-Term Mortality after Transcatheter Edge-to-Edge Mitral Valve Repair Significantly Decreased over the Last Decade: Comparison between Initial and Current Experience from the MiTra Ulm Registry.

(1) Objective: We aimed to assess whether the candidate profile, the long-term outcomes and the predictors for long-term mortality after transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair (M-TEER) have changed over the last decade; (2) Methods: Long-term follow-up data (median time of 1202 days) including mortality, MACCE and functional status were available for 677 consecutive patients enrolled in the prospective MiTra Ulm registry from January 2010 to April 2019. The initial 340 patients treated in our institution before January 2016 were compared with the following 337 patients; (3) Results: Patients treated after 2016 showed significantly less ventricular dilatation (left ventricular end-systolic diameter of 43 ± 13 mm vs. 49 ± 16 mm, p < 0.007), lower systolic pulmonary pressures (50 ± 15 mmHg vs. 57 ± 21 mmHg, p = 0.01) and a lower prevalence of severe tricuspid regurgitation (27.2% vs. 47.3%, p < 0.001) at baseline than patients treated before 2016. Compared to the cohort treated before 2016, patients treated afterwards showed a significantly lower all-cause 3-year mortality (29.4% vs. 43.8%, p < 0.001) and lower MACCE (38.6% vs. 54.1%, p < 0.001), without differences for MR etiology. While severe tricuspid regurgitation and NYHA class IV remained independently associated with an increased long-term mortality over the last decade, severe left ventricular dilatation (hazard ratio, HR 2.12, p = 0.047) and severe pulmonary hypertension (HR 2.18, p = 0.047) were predictors of long-term mortality only in patients treated before 2016. (4) Conclusions: The M-TEER candidates are currently treated earlier in the course of disease and benefit significantly in terms of a better long-term survival than patients treated at the beginning of the M-TEER era.

Sex Differences in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Survival Trends.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survival rates have improved over time. This study established whether improvements were similar for women and men, and to what extent resuscitation characteristics or in-hospital procedures contributed to sex differences in temporal trends. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective cohort study included 3386 women and 8564 men from North Holland, the Netherlands, who experienced an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from a cardiac cause in 2005 to 2017. Yearly rates of 30-day survival and secondary outcomes were calculated. Sex differences in temporal trends were evaluated with age-adjusted Poisson regression analysis, including interaction for sex and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest year. Resuscitation characteristics and in-hospital procedures were added to the model, and a spline at 2013 was considered. During the study period, the average 30-day survival was 24.9% in men and 15.7% in women. The 30-day survival rate increased in men (20% to 27.2%; P<0.001) but not in women (15.0% to 11.6%; P=0.40). The increase in the 30-day survival rate was 3% higher per year in men than in women (rate ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.00-1.05]), with a stronger difference after 2013. Men had a larger increase in survival rate to the hospital arrival than women in 2005 to 2013, and, after 2013, an advantage over women in survival rate after hospital arrival. The sex differences were partly explained by differing trends in shockable initial rhythm (eg, adjusted rate ratio, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.99-1.03] for 30-day survival) and provision of in-hospital procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in rates of 30-day survival, survival to hospital arrival, and, after 2013, survival from hospital arrival to 30 days were more beneficial in men than women. The differences in trends were partly explained by shockable initial rhythm and in-hospital procedures.

Survival difference between secondary and de novo acute myeloid leukemia by age, antecedent cancer types, and chemotherapy receipt.

BACKGROUND: This study compared the survival of persons with secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML) to those with de novo AML (dnAML) by age at AML diagnosis, chemotherapy receipt, and cancer type preceding sAML diagnosis. METHODS: Data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 17 Registries were used, which included 47,704 individuals diagnosed with AML between 2001 and 2018. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compare AML-specific survival between sAML and dnAML. Trends in 5-year age-standardized relative survival were examined via the Joinpoint survival model. RESULTS: Overall, individuals with sAML had an 8% higher risk of dying from AML (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.11) compared to those with dnAML. Disparities widened with younger age at diagnosis, particularly in those who received chemotherapy for AML (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.10-1.19). In persons aged 20-64 years and who received chemotherapy, HRs were greatest for those with antecedent myelodysplastic syndrome (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.83-2.28), ovarian cancer (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.19-3.08), head and neck cancer (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02-2.36), leukemia (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.12-1.89), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20-1.69). Among those aged ≥65 years and who received chemotherapy, HRs were highest for those with antecedent cervical cancer (HR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.15-5.10) and myelodysplastic syndrome (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.19-1.38). The 5-year relative survival improved 0.3% per year for sAML slower than 0.86% per year for dnAML. Consequently, the survival gap widened from 7.2% (95% CI, 5.4%-9.0%) during the period 2001-2003 to 14.3% (95% CI, 12.8%-15.8%) during the period 2012-2014. CONCLUSIONS: Significant survival disparities exist between sAML and dnAML on the basis of age at diagnosis, chemotherapy receipt, and antecedent cancer, which highlights opportunities to improve outcomes among those diagnosed with sAML.

Primary treatment and recent survival trends in patients with primary diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of central nervous system, 1995-2016: A population-based SEER analysis.

This retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate primary treatment and recent survival trends in patients with primary diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of central nervous system (CNS) from 1995 to 2016. Using the SEER data, patients diagnosed with non-HIV-associated primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL)-diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) aged ⩾18 years between 1995 and 2016 were identified. The year of diagnosis was divided into the time period-1 (1995-2002), the time period-2 (2003-2012), and the time period-3 (2013-2016). Chi-square tests, the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox regression model were used in the analysis. Overall, 3760 patients were included. Both the use of radiotherapy alone and the application of combined chemoradiotherapy decreased significantly, following the wider use of chemotherapy alone during 1995-2016. There was a significant improvement in PCNSL cause-specific survival (CSS) (period-1: 13 months vs. period-2: 19 months vs. period-3: 41 months, p < 0.001). Survival of patients aged above 70 years did not change from the time period-1 to the time period-2 (p = 0.101). However, there was an increase in CSS from the time period-2 to the time period-3 in the elderly patients (period-2: 5 months vs. period-3: 9 months, p < 0.001). On multivariable analyses, diagnosed in the time period-3 was significantly and independently associated with better CSS (hazard ratio 0.577, 95% confidence interval 0.506-0.659, p < 0.001). Our analysis shows the use of radiotherapy in the treatment of PCNSL has waned over the study span. There was a significant improvement in CSS during 1995-2016, which reflected developments in treatment over time. The elderly patient population also gained a significant CSS benefit in the most recent period.

Survival trends and prognostic factors for patients with extramedullary plasmacytoma: A population-based study.

Background: Extramedullary plasmacytoma (EMP) is a localized plasma cell neoplasm that originates from tissues other than bone. The survival trends and prognostic factors of patients with EMP in recent years remain unreported. Methods: We used the SEER databases to extract the data. Survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and a nomogram was created based on the Cox's proportional hazards model. Results: A total of 1676 cases of EMP were identified. Patients in period-2 (2008-2016) show similar survival (p=0.8624) to those in period-1(1975-2007). Age, gender, race, and sites were prognostic of patient outcomes. And the use of surgery was associated with improved survival. The patients were randomly assigned to the training cohort and the validation cohort in a ratio of 2:1. Four factors including age, gender, race, and sites were identified to be independently predictive of the overall survival of patients with EMP. A prognostic model (EMP prognostic index, EMP-PI) comprising these four factors was constructed. Within the training cohort, three risk groups displayed significantly different 10-year survival rates: low-risk (73.0%, [95%CI 66.9-78.2]), intermediate-risk (39.3%, [95%CI 34.3-44.3]), and high-risk (22.6%, [95%CI 15.3-30.9]) (p<0.0001). Three risk groups were confirmed in the internal validation cohort. We also constructed a 5-factor nomogram based on multivariate logistic analyses. Conclusion: The survival of patients with EMP did not improve in recent years. The EMP-PI will facilitate the risk stratification and guide the risk-adapted therapy in patients with EMP.

Survival outcomes for cancer types with the highest death rates for adolescents and young adults, 1975-2016.

BACKGROUND: Five-year relative survival for adolescent and young adult (AYA) patients with cancer diagnosed at the ages of 15 to 39 years is 85%. Survival rates vary considerably according to the cancer type. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term survival trends for cancer types with the highest mortality among AYAs to determine where the greatest burden is and to identify areas for future research. METHODS: Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry and the National Center for Health Statistics, the authors examined the incidence, mortality, and survival for the 9 cancer types with the highest mortality rates in this age group from 1975 to 2016. JPSurv, new survival trend software, was used in the analysis. RESULTS: Results suggested significant improvements in 5-year relative survival for brain and other nervous system tumors, colon and rectum cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (all P values < .05). Limited or no improvement in survival was found for female breast cancer, cervical cancer, ovarian cancer, and bone and joint sarcomas. CONCLUSIONS: Five-year relative survival for multiple cancer types in AYAs has improved, but some common cancer types in this group still show limited survival improvements (eg, ovarian cancer). Survival improvements in colorectal cancer have been overshadowed by its rising incidence, which suggests a substantial disease burden. Future research should focus on female breast, bone, ovarian, and cervical cancers, which have seen minimal or no improvements in survival. LAY SUMMARY: Survival trends for adolescents and young adults with cancer are presented from a 40-year period. Although survival progress is noted for brain cancer, lung cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, and colon and rectum cancer, the incidence of colon and rectum cancer remains high. Minimal progress is evident for female breast, bone, ovarian, and cervical cancers, which are in need of renewed focus.

Survival trends for extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type from different anatomical sites: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (NKTCL), nasal type mostly involves the upper aerodigestive tract (UAT). NKTCLs derived from the UAT are referred to as nasal NKTCLs, while those without UAT involvement are referred to as extra-nasal NKTCLs. In this study, we aimed to investigate the outcomes and survival trends of NKTCLs from different anatomical sites. METHODS: Data from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database on NKTCL (diagnosed between 1987 and 2016) were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 714 patients with NKTCL were included. The median overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were 36 and 57 months, respectively. For the entire cohort, the OS was improved from era 1 to era 2 with marginal significance (P=0.0595), however, no improvement was shown in CSS. For nasal NKTCLs, the OS of patients from era 2 was significantly improved compared to that of patients from era 1 (P=0.0244). The OS was significantly improved in non-cavity nasal NKTCLs (P=0.031) but not in nasal cavity NKTCLs (P=0.2982). Significant improvements in OS (P=0.0025) and CSS (P=0.0176) were found in stage I/II non-cavity nasal NKTCLs. For patients with extra-nasal NKTCLs, no difference was found in survival outcomes between the 2 eras. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that the outcomes of non-cavity nasal NKTCLs, especially those in stage I/II, have improved in the new era, while the outcomes of nasal cavity NKTCLs and extra-nasal NKTCLs have not improved. Our study highlights the heterogeneity in clinical outcomes and biology among NKTCLs from different sites. More studies are warranted to define the optimal treatments for patients with NKTCLs.

Epidemiology and Trends in Survival of Systemic Sclerosis in Olmsted County (1980-2018): A Population-based Study.

Background/Purpose: To update the epidemiology of systemic sclerosis (SSc) and evaluate the performance of the ACR/EULAR 2013 vs. 1980 ARA classification criteria in a U.S. population-based cohort. Methods: An inception cohort of patients with incident SSc from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2018, in Olmsted County, Minnesota, was identified based on comprehensive individual medical record review. Incidence and prevalence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the 2010 US white population. Survival rates were compared with expected rates in the general population. Fulfillment of 1980 and 2013 classification criteria was ascertained. Results: A total of 85 incident cases of SSc (91% female, mean age 55.4 ± 16 y) and 49 prevalent cases on Jan 1, 2015 were identified. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence was 25 (95% CI 20-31) per million population, with no change in incidence over time. The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence was 436 (95% CI: 313-558) per 1,000,000 population. 77 (91%) patients fulfilled the 2013 classification criteria, and 38 (45%) fulfilled the 1980 criteria. Mortality among patients with SSc was significantly higher in comparison to the general population, with a standardized mortality ratio of 2.48 (95% CI:1.76-3.39) and no evidence of improvement over time. Conclusions: SSc developed in 25 persons/million/year with no change over the 39-year study period. The 2013 classification criteria perform significantly better than the 1980 criteria but failed to classify 9% of patients. SSc portends a 2.5-fold higher risk of mortality than the general population, with no evidence of improved survival over time.

Survival trends and prognostic factors in patients with solitary plasmacytoma of bone: A population-based study.

Solitary plasmacytoma of bone (SPB) is a single, isolated plasmacytoma originated from the bone. The survival trends of patients with SPB in recent years remain unknown. And the prognostic system of SPB may also need to be refined. The 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) databases of the National Cancer Institute in the United States were used to extract data for this study. The third edition of the International Classification of Disease for Oncology (ICD-O-3) code 9731 was used to identify cases of SPB. For each case, factors including age at the time of diagnosis, sex, race, marital status, insurance status, primary sites of tumors, and the use of surgery were collected. The outcomes of patients with SPB were compared between two groups. And the prognostic impacts of baseline characteristics and use of surgery was studied. A total of 4103 (from 1976 to 2016) cases of SPB were identified. The median age was 65 years old. Patients in time period-2 (2008-2016) show better survival as compared to those in time period-1(1976-2007) (median overall survival: 88 months vs. 73 months, p = 0.0332). Age ≤ 65 years and being male were associated with better outcomes. The widowed individuals had significantly inferior survival and myeloma-specific survival than the single, married, or divorced individuals (p values all <0.0001). Patients with lesions in bones of skull and face and associated joints had longer survival as compared with those with bone lesions in other sites (median overall survival: 107 months vs. 79 months, p = 0.0694). The use of surgery was significantly associated with improved survival (median survival: surgery performed 98 months vs. not performed 73 months, hazards ratio [HR]: 0.7623, 95% CI: 0.7009-0.8472; p < 0.0001) and myeloma-specific survival (median myeloma-specific survival: surgery 160.0 months vs. no surgery 143.0 months, HR: 0.8469, 95% CI: 0.7493-0.9572; p = 0.0078). Multivariable analysis revealed that surgery, marital status, and age were independent prognostic factors for overall survival in patients with SPB. The improvement in the survival of patients with SPB has been observed in recent years. And several potential prognostic factors were identified. Future prospective studies are warranted to explore the roles of novel agents, surgery, and systemic chemotherapy in the treatment of SPB.

Improved survival for individuals with common chronic conditions in the Medicare population.

It is well established that the United States lags behind peer nations in life expectancy, but it is less established that there is heterogeneity in life expectancy trends. We compared mortality trends from 2004 to 2014 for the United States with 17 high-income countries for persons under and over 65. The United States ranked last in survival gains for the young but ranked near the middle for persons over 65, the group with universal access to public insurance. To explore the over-65 mortality trend, we estimated Cox proportional hazards models for individuals soon after entering Medicare. These were estimated separately by race and sex, controlling for 26 chronic conditions and condition-specific time trends. The separate regressions enabled survival comparisons for the 2004 and 2014 cohorts by race and sex, conditional on baseline health. We predicted 5-year survival for all combinations of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and ischemic heart disease (IHD). All 16 combinations of these conditions showed survival gains, with diabetes as a key driver. Notably, survival improved and racial disparities narrowed for individuals with diabetes, hypertension, and IHD. White females, black females, white males, and black males gained 3.61, 3.90, 3.57, and 5.89 percentage points in 5-year survival, respectively.

Temporal trends in childhood cancer survival in Egypt, 2007 to 2017: A large retrospective study of 14 808 children with cancer from the Children's Cancer Hospital Egypt.

Childhood cancer is a priority in Egypt due to large numbers of children with cancer, suboptimal care and insufficient resources. It is difficult to evaluate progress in survival because of paucity of data in National Cancer Registry. In this study, we studied survival rates and trends in survival of the largest available cohort of children with cancer (n = 15 779, aged 0-18 years) from Egypt between 2007 and 2017, treated at Children's Cancer Hospital Egypt-(CCHE), representing 40% to 50% of all childhood cancers across Egypt. We estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) for 14 808 eligible patients using Kaplan-Meier method, and determined survival trends using Cox regression by single year of diagnosis and by diagnosis periods. We compared age-standardized rates to international benchmarks in England and the United States, identified cancers with inferior survival and provided recommendations for improvement. Five-year OS was 72.1% (95% CI 71.3-72.9) for all cancers combined, and survival trends increased significantly by single year of diagnosis (P < .001) and by calendar periods from 69.6% to 74.2% (P < .0001) between 2007-2012 and 2013-2017. Survival trends improved significantly for leukemias, lymphomas, CNS tumors, neuroblastoma, hepatoblastoma and Ewing Sarcoma. Survival was significantly lower by 9% and 11.2% (P < .001) than England and the United States, respectively. Significantly inferior survival was observed for the majority of cancers. Although survival trends are improving for childhood cancers in Egypt/CCHE, survival is still inferior in high-income countries. We provide evidence-based recommendations to improve survival in Egypt by reflecting on current obstacles in care, with further implications on practice and policy.

Long-term trends in glioblastoma survival: implications for historical control groups in clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Historical controls continue to be used in early-phase brain tumor trials. We aim to show that historical changes in survival trends for glioblastoma (GBM) call into question the use of noncontemporary controls. METHODS: We analyzed data from 46 106 primary GBM cases from the SEER database (1998-2016). We performed trend analysis on survival outcomes (2-year survival probability, median survival, and hazard ratios) and patient characteristics (age, sex, resection extent, and treatment type). RESULTS: In 2005-2016 (ie, the post-Stupp protocol era), fitting a parameter independently to each year, there was a demonstrable increase in median survival (R2 = 0.81, P < .001) and 2-year survival probability (R2 = 0.55, P = .006) for GBM. Trend analysis of the hazard ratio showed a significant time-dependent downward trend (R2 = 0.62, P = .002). When controlling, via multivariable Cox regression modeling, for age, sex, resection extent, and treatment type, there was a persistent downward trend in hazard ratios with increases in calendar time, especially in the most recent data. CONCLUSION: Contemporary GBM patients face a different overall hazard profile from their historical counterparts, which is evident in changes in measures of patient survival and parametric hazard modeling. Though there was a plateau in these measures before 2005 (pre-Stupp protocol), there is no evidence of a new plateau in recent years even when controlling for known prognostic factors (age, sex, resection extent, and treatment type), suggesting that it may be insufficient to match contemporary patients and noncontemporary controls on the basis of these factors.

Trends in survival based on treatment modality in patients with pancreatic cancer: a population-based study.

Background: Pancreatic cancer (pcc) is one of the most lethal types of cancer, and surgery remains the optimal treatment modality for patients with resectable tumours. The objective of the present study was to examine and compare trends in the survival rate based on treatment modality in patients with pcc. Methods: This population-based retrospective analysis included all patients with known-stage pcc in Ontario between 2007 and 2015. Flexible parametric models were used to conduct the survival analysis. Survival rates were calculated based on treatment modality, while adjusting for patient- and tumour-specific covariates. Results: The study included 6437 patients. We found no noticeable improvement in survival for patients with stage iii or iv tumours; however, for stage i disease, the 1-, 2-, and 5-year survival rates increased over time to 81% from 51%, to 71% from 35%, and to 61% from 22% respectively. Most improvements were seen for surgical modalities, with 2-year survivals increasing to 89% from 65% for distal pancreatectomy (dp) without radiation (rt) or chemotherapy (ctx), to 65% from 37% for dp plus rt or ctx, to 60% from 44% for Whipple-only, and to 50% from 36% for Whipple plus rt or ctx. Lastly, 5-year survival improved to 81% from 52% for dp only, to 41% from 12% for dp plus rt or ctx, to 49% from 25% for Whipple-only, and to 26% from 12% for Whipple plus rt or ctx. Conclusions: Most cases of pcc continue to be diagnosed at a late stage, with poor short-term and long-term prognoses. After adjustment for patient age, sex, and year of diagnosis, the survival for stage i tumours and for surgical modalities increased over time. Further research is needed to identify the reasons for improvement in survival during the study period.

Haemodialysis withdrawal in Australia and New Zealand: a binational registry study.

BACKGROUND: Withdrawal from dialysis is an increasingly common cause of death in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). As most published reports of dialysis withdrawal have been outside the Oceania region, the aims of this study were to determine the frequency, temporal pattern and predictors of dialysis withdrawal in Australian and New Zealand patients receiving chronic haemodialysis. METHODS: This study included all people with ESKD in Australia and New Zealand who commenced chronic haemodialysis between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2016, using data from the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant (ANZDATA) Registry. Competing risk regression models were used to identify predictors of dialysis withdrawal mortality, using non-withdrawal cause of death as the competing risk event. RESULTS: Among 40 447 people receiving chronic haemodialysis (median age 62 years, 61% male, 9% Indigenous), dialysis withdrawal mortality rates increased from 1.02 per 100 patient-years (11% of all deaths) during the period 1997-2000 to 2.20 per 100 patient-years (32% of all deaths) during 2013-16 (P < 0.001). Variables that were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of haemodialysis withdrawal were older age {≥70 years subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 1.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.66-1.89]; reference 60-70 years}, female sex [SHR 1.14 (95% CI 1.09-1.21)], white race [Asian SHR 0.56 (95% CI 0.49-0.65), Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander SHR 0.83 (95% CI 0.74-0.93), Pacific Islander SHR 0.47 (95% CI 0.39-0.68), reference white race], coronary artery disease [SHR 1.18 (95% CI 1.11-1.25)], cerebrovascular disease [SHR 1.15 (95% CI 1.08-1.23)], chronic lung disease [SHR 1.13 (95% CI 1.06-1.21)] and more recent era [2013-16 SHR 3.96 (95% CI 3.56-4.48); reference 1997-2000]. CONCLUSIONS: Death due to haemodialysis withdrawal has become increasingly common in Australia and New Zealand over time. Predictors of haemodialysis withdrawal include older age, female sex, white race and haemodialysis commencement in a more recent era.

Infection-Related Mortality in Recipients of a Kidney Transplant in Australia and New Zealand.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The burden of infectious disease is high among kidney transplant recipients because of concomitant immunosuppression. In this study the incidence of infectious-related mortality and associated factors were evaluated. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: In this registry-based retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, recipients of a first kidney transplant in Australia and New Zealand between 1997 and 2015 were included. Cumulative incidence of infectious-related mortality was estimated using competing risk regression (using noninfectious mortality as a competing risk event), and compared with age-matched, populated-based data using standardized incidence ratios. RESULTS: Among 12,519 patients, (median age 46 years, 63% men, 15% diabetic, 6% Indigenous ethnicity), 2197 (18%) died, of whom 416 (19%) died from infection. The incidence of infection-related mortality during the study period (1997-2015) was 45.8 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 41.6 to 50.4) per 10,000 patient-years. The incidence of infection-related mortality reduced from 53.1 (95% CI, 45.0 to 62.5) per 10,000 person-years in 1997-2000 to 43.9 (95% CI, 32.5 to 59.1) per 10,000 person-years in 2011-2015 (P<0.001) Compared with the age-matched general population, kidney transplant recipients had a markedly higher risk of infectious-related death (standardized incidence ratio, 7.8; 95% CI, 7.1 to 8.6). Infectious mortality was associated with older age (≥60 years adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 4.16; 95% CI, 2.15 to 8.05; reference 20-30 years), female sex (SHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.19 to 2.29), Indigenous ethnicity (SHR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.84 to 4.46; reference white), earlier transplant era (2011-2015: SHR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.76; reference 1997-2000), and use of T cell-depleting therapy (SHR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.36 to 4.33). Live donor transplantation was associated with lower risk of infection-related mortality (SHR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Infection-related mortality in kidney transplant recipients is significantly higher than the general population, but has reduced over time. Risk factors include older age, female sex, Indigenous ethnicity, T cell-depleting therapy, and deceased donor transplantation. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2019_08_27_CJN03200319.mp3.

Flexible and structured survival model for a simultaneous estimation of non-linear and non-proportional effects and complex interactions between continuous variables: Performance of this multidimensional penalized spline approach in net survival trend analysis.

Cancer survival trend analyses are essential to describe accurately the way medical practices impact patients' survival according to the year of diagnosis. To this end, survival models should be able to account simultaneously for non-linear and non-proportional effects and for complex interactions between continuous variables. However, in the statistical literature, there is no consensus yet on how to build such models that should be flexible but still provide smooth estimates of survival. In this article, we tackle this challenge by smoothing the complex hypersurface (time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and mortality hazard) using a multidimensional penalized spline built from the tensor product of the marginal bases of time, age, and year. Considering this penalized survival model as a Poisson model, we assess the performance of this approach in estimating the net survival with a comprehensive simulation study that reflects simple and complex realistic survival trends. The bias was generally small and the root mean squared error was good and often similar to that of the true model that generated the data. This parametric approach offers many advantages and interesting prospects (such as forecasting) that make it an attractive and efficient tool for survival trend analyses.

A mixed linear model controlling for case underascertainment across multiple cancer registries estimated time trends in survival.

OBJECTIVES: Large temporal and geographical variation in survival rates estimated from epidemiological cancer registries coupled with heterogeneity in death certificate only (DCO) notifications makes it difficult to interpret trends in survival. The aim of our study is to introduce a method for estimating such trends while accounting for heterogeneity in DCO notifications in a cancer site-specific manner. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used the data of 4.0 million cancer cases notified in 14 German epidemiological cancer registries. Annual 5-year relative survival rates from 2002 through 2013 were estimated, and proportions of DCO notifications were recorded. "DCO-excluded" survival rates were regressed on DCO proportions and calendar years using a mixed linear model with cancer registry as a random effect. Based on this model, trends in survival rates were estimated for Germany at 0% DCO. RESULTS: For most cancer sites and age groups, we estimated significant positive trends in survival. Age-standardized survival for all cancers combined increased by 7.1% units for women and 10.8% units for men. CONCLUSION: The described method could be used to estimate trends in cancer survival based on the data from epidemiological cancer registries with differing DCO proportions and with changing DCO proportions over time.

A National Study of Survival Trends and Conditional Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Analysis of the National Population-Based Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Registry.

PURPOSE: Conditional survival (CS) provides important information on survival for a period of time after diagnosis. Currently, information on CS patterns of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking. We aimed to analyze survival rate over time and estimate CS for NPC patients using a national population-based registry. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with NPC between 1973 and 2007 with at least 5-year follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimateswere calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method. RESULTS: registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimateswere calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method. RESULTS: For 7,713 patients analyzed, adjusted baseline 5-year overall survival improved significantly from 36.0% in patients diagnosed in 1973-1979, 41.7% in 1980-1989, 46.6% in 1990-1999, to 54.7% in 2000-2007 (p < 0.01). CS analysis demonstrated that for every additional year survived, adjusted probability of surviving the next 5 years increased from 66.7% (localized), 54.0% (regional), and 35.3% (distant) at the time of diagnosis, to 83.7% (localized), 75.0% (regional), and 62.2% (distant) for patients who had survived 5 years. Adjusted 5-year CS differed among age, sex, tumor histology, ethnicity, and stage subgroups initially, but converged with time. CONCLUSION: Treatment outcomes of NPC patients have greatly improved over the decades. Increases in CS become more prominent in patients with distant disease than in those with localized or regional disease as patients survive longer. CS provides more dynamic prognostic information for patients who have survived a period of time after diagnosis.

A National Study of Survival Trends and Conditional Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Analysis of the National Population-Based Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Registry / Journal of the Korean Cancer Association, 대한암학회지

PURPOSE: Conditional survival (CS) provides important information on survival for a period of time after diagnosis. Currently, information on CS patterns of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking. We aimed to analyze survival rate over time and estimate CS for NPC patients using a national population-based registry. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with NPC between 1973 and 2007 with at least 5-year follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimateswere calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method. RESULTS: For 7,713 patients analyzed, adjusted baseline 5-year overall survival improved significantly from 36.0% in patients diagnosed in 1973-1979, 41.7% in 1980-1989, 46.6% in 1990-1999, to 54.7% in 2000-2007 (p < 0.01). CS analysis demonstrated that for every additional year survived, adjusted probability of surviving the next 5 years increased from 66.7% (localized), 54.0% (regional), and 35.3% (distant) at the time of diagnosis, to 83.7% (localized), 75.0% (regional), and 62.2% (distant) for patients who had survived 5 years. Adjusted 5-year CS differed among age, sex, tumor histology, ethnicity, and stage subgroups initially, but converged with time. CONCLUSION: Treatment outcomes of NPC patients have greatly improved over the decades. Increases in CS become more prominent in patients with distant disease than in those with localized or regional disease as patients survive longer. CS provides more dynamic prognostic information for patients who have survived a period of time after diagnosis.