Household Decision-Making Choices: Investment in Children's Education or Self-Consumption.

Analyzing the sustainable decision-making mechanism between household consumption and education investment can theoretically develop education. This study uses the continuous-time utility model to demonstrate the independent characteristics of consumption and education investment, as well as the principle of decision incompatibility in the decision-making process of the utility maximization problem. Then, we establish a three-phase logarithmic utility model to obtain the intertemporal decision-making path of a family. The analysis shows that the investment allocation ratio between the two phases depends on the expected and discounted level of the offsprings' abilities, while the total investment level is related to parental altruism. When parents, with foresight, factor in prospective transfer payments from progeny, the optimal decision is to maximize their children's ultimate human capital within a given total investment. Education investment not only squeezes out consumption but also promotes consumption in various periods due to future transfer payments. The decision-making process of three typical growth stages indicates that as offspring mature and their human capital increases, parents' willingness to invest in education decreases while self-consumption escalates. This study provides a new perspective and theoretical basis for studying household education expenditure, motivation, and related policy formulation.

Should it stay, or swerve? Trading off lives in dilemma situations involving autonomous cars.

Using a representative survey with 1317 individuals and 12,815 moral decisions, we elicit Swedish citizens' preferences on how algorithms for self-driving cars should be programmed in cases of unavoidable harm to humans. Participants' choices in different dilemma situations (treatments) show that, at the margin, the average respondent values the lives of passengers and pedestrians equally when both groups are homogeneous and no group is to blame for the dilemma. In comparison, the respondent values the lives of passengers more when the pedestrians violate a social norm, and less when the pedestrians are children. Furthermore, we explain why the average respondent in the control treatment needs to be compensated with two to six passengers spared in order to sacrifice the first pedestrian, even though she values the lives of passengers and pedestrians equally at the margin. We conclude that respondents' choices are highly contextual and consider the age of the persons involved and whether these persons have complied with social norms.

Inferring Economic Impacts from a Program's Physical Outcomes: An Application to Forest Protection in Thailand.

Economists typically estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) when evaluating government programs. The economic interpretation of the ATT can be ambiguous when program outcomes are measured in purely physical terms, as they often are in evaluations of environmental programs (e.g., avoided deforestation). This paper presents an approach for inferring economic impacts from physical outcomes when the ATT is estimated using propensity-score matching. For the case of forest protection, we show that a protection program's ex post economic impact, as perceived by the government agency responsible for protection decisions, can be proxied by a weighted ATT, with the weights derived from the propensity of being treated (i.e., protected). We apply this new metric to mangrove protection in Thailand during 1987-2000. We find that the government's protection program avoided the loss of 12.8% of the economic value associated with the protected mangrove area. This estimate is about a quarter smaller than the conventional ATT for avoided deforestation, 17.3 percentage points. The difference between the two measures indicates that the program tended to be less effective at reducing deforestation in locations where the government perceived the net benefits of protection as being greater, which is the opposite of the relationship that would characterize a maximally effective program.

Patentes otorgadas a las universidades peruanas en el campo de la biomedicina. 2010 a 2020

Introducción: La patente es un título de propiedad industrial otorgado por el Estado al inventor de un nuevo producto o tecnología, susceptible de ser comercializado para obtener ganancias de forma exclusiva a un plazo de tiempo determinado. Objetivo: Determinar el número de patentes otorgadas a las universidades peruanas en el campo biomédico de 2010 a 2020, en comparación con la producción de otros inventores. Material y método: Este estudio descriptivo, observacional, retrospectivo y transversal analizó 73 patentes provenientes de un universo de 759, obtenidas de la base de datos del Instituto Nacional de Defensa de la Competencia y de la Protección de la Propiedad Intelectual en el Perú, de 2010 a 2020. Para comparar el número de patentes otorgadas a las universidades respecto a otros inventores, se aplicó la prueba del Chi Cuadrado de Pearson con la corrección de continuidad de Yates. Resultados: En el Perú, durante 2010 a 2020 se han otorgado 759 patentes, de las cuales 73 pertenecen al campo biomédico (9,61 %), de los cuales las universidades han generado 24,66 %; es decir 2,47 % del total. Además, las universidades presentaron diferencias significativas de producción de patentes (p = 0,019) en comparación a otros autores. Conclusiones: En el campo biomédico, la producción de patentes en las universidades peruanas ha sido muy limitadas desde 2010 a 2020. Además, las universidades presentaron significativamente menor producción de patentes en comparación a otros inventores, observándose que desde 2016, no se les ha otorgado ninguna patente de invención en el campo biomédico.

Introduction: A patent is an industrial property title granted by the State to the inventor of a new product or technology, susceptible of being marketed for profit on an exclusive basis for a determined period of time. Objective: To determine the number of patents granted to Peruvian universities in the biomedical field from 2010 to 2020, in comparison with the production of other inventors. Material and Methods: This descriptive, observational, retrospective and cross-sectional study analyzed 73 patents from a universe of 759 patents obtained from the database of the National Institute for the Defense of Competition and Protection of Intellectual Property in Peru, from 2010 to 2020. To compare the number of patents granted to universities with respect to other inventors, Pearson's chi-square test with Yates' continuity correction was applied. Results: In Peru, during the years 2010 to 2020, 759 patents have been granted, of which 73 belong to the biomedical field (9.61 %), of which universities have generated 24.66 %, i.e. 2.47 % of the total. Furthermore, universities showed significant differences in patent production (p = 0.019) compared to other authors. Conclusions: In the biomedical field, patent production in Peruvian universities has been very limited from 2010 to 2020. In addition, universities presented significantly lower patent production compared to other inventors, noting that since 2016, they have not been granted any invention patents in the biomedical field.

Conceptual Utility Model for the Management of Stress and Psychological Wellbeing, CMMSPW™ in a university environment: theoretical basis, structure and functionality.

This article describes and introduces the Conceptual Utility Model for the Management of Stress and Psychological Wellbeing, CMMSPW™ Its purpose is to assess, evaluate and treat stress and psychological wellbeing. First, the theoretical assumptions of the model are presented. This model is an application of the 3P Model, Theory of Internal vs. External Behavioral Regulation and the Model of Competency for the Management of Stress and Psychological Wellbeing. Second, the conceptual structure of the model is presented. This model allows the structural and functional determination of the variables and predictive, mediating and final factors for stress and psychological wellbeing. Third, the functional structure is presented. For predictive factors, the internal and external self-regulation theoretical model allows us to assess levels of internal and external regulation of the individual and their context, as well as other personal and contextual factors involved in self-regulation. For mediating factors, the model of competence for the management of stress and wellbeing allows us to analyze conceptual (concept and principles), mediating (skills and metaskills) and attitudinal (attitudes, values and habits) variables. Finally, in relation to factors that condition outcomes, we can determine levels of response to stress and psychological wellbeing. Finally, limitations and conclusions are presented. The model also allows us to determine predictive relationships between those three types of variables and is functionally transferable to other contexts, including contexts proper to the psychology of education, clinical practice and healthcare, and psychosocial, organizational and technological contexts.

Evaluating the cost utility of racecadotril in addition to oral rehydration solution versus oral rehydration solution alone for children with acute watery diarrhea in four low middle-income countries: Egypt, Morocco, Philippines and Vietnam.

AIM: To evaluate the cost utility of adjunct racecadotril and oral rehydration solution (R + ORS) versus oral rehydration solution (ORS) alone for the treatment of diarrhoea in children under five years with acute watery diarrhoea in four low-middle income countries. METHOD: A cost utility model, previously developed and independently validated, has been adapted to Egypt, Morocco, Philippines and Vietnam. The model is a decision tree, cohort model programmed in Microsoft Excel. The model structure represents the country-specific clinical pathways. The target population is children under the age of five years presenting with symptoms of acute watery diarrhea to an outpatient clinic or general physician practice. A healthcare payer perspective has been analysed with the model parameterised with local data, where available. Most recent cost data has been used to inform the drug, outpatient and inpatient costs. Uncertainty has been explored with univariate deterministic sensitivity. RESULTS: According to the base case models, R + ORS is dominant (cost-saving, more effective) versus ORS alone in Egypt, Morocco, Philippines and Vietnam. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in each country fall in the southeast (cost-saving, more effective) quadrant and represent a cost savings of -304,152 EGP per QALY gain in Egypt; -6,561 MAD per QALY gain in Morocco; -428,612 PHP per QALY gain in Philippines and -113,985,734 VND per QALY gain in Vietnam. Univariate deterministic sensitivity analysis shows that the three most influential parameters across all country adaptations are the utility of children without diarrhea; the utility of inpatient children with diarrhea and the cost of one night of inpatient care. CONCLUSION: In keeping with similar findings in upper-middle and high-income countries, the cost utility of R + ORS versus ORS is favourable in low-middle income countries for the treatment of children under five with acute watery diarrhoea.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARYDecision-makers rely on cost utility models to inform decisions about whether to publicly fund treatments as part of Universal Health Care. In low-middle income countries, the capacity to prepare cost utility models may be limited and using existing validated models is a practical solution to assist decision making. This study uses a cost utility model developed and independently validated for the United Kingdom, and adapts it to Philippines, Egypt, Morocco and Vietnam. The model evaluates the clinical benefit and economic impact of using racecadotril in addition to rehydration solution to treat diarrhoea in children. The results show that racecadotril is cost-saving and improves the quality of life for children in Philippines, Egypt, Morocco and Vietnam.

Empirical underidentification in estimating random utility models: The role of choice sets and standardizations.

A standard approach to distinguishing people's risk preferences is to estimate a random utility model using a power utility function to characterize the preferences and a logit function to capture choice consistency. We demonstrate that with often-used choice situations, this model suffers from empirical underidentification, meaning that parameters cannot be estimated precisely. With simulations of estimation accuracy and Kullback-Leibler divergence measures we examined factors that potentially mitigate this problem. First, using a choice set that guarantees a switch in the utility order between two risky gambles in the range of plausible values leads to higher estimation accuracy than randomly created choice sets or the purpose-built choice sets common in the literature. Second, parameter estimates are regularly correlated, which contributes to empirical underidentification. Examining standardizations of the utility scale, we show that they mitigate this correlation and additionally improve the estimation accuracy for choice consistency. Yet, they can have detrimental effects on the estimation accuracy of risk preference. Finally, we also show how repeated versus distinct choice sets and an increase in observations affect estimation accuracy. Together, these results should help researchers make informed design choices to estimate parameters in the random utility model more precisely.

Price Attractiveness and Price Complexity: Why People Prefer Level-Payment Loans.

The improving sequence effect suggests that in choices between a rising earning and any other sequences, participants prefer the rising earning. Recent studies show that the improving sequence effect also exists in a loan context. As consumers have a strong preference for falling loan profiles, banks may consider to offer loans in which the loan repayments concentrate at the beginning of the loan term. In this paper, we examined the improving sequence effect in context of a car loan with three repayment plans expressed in temporally reframed prices (TRP). By regressing the evaluation of loan profiles on the perceived price attractiveness, price complexity, TRP and the interaction terms, we find that (1) the perceived price attractiveness and price complexity significantly predict the loan evaluation, and they also explain a significant proportion of variance in loan evaluation; (2) the TRP effect interacts with the improving sequence effect. Specifically, with the introduction of TRP, respondents prefer constant profiles over falling profiles. TRP may explain why level-payment loans are still popular in real world, though the improving sequence effect suggests otherwise.

Algorithmic monoculture and social welfare.

As algorithms are increasingly applied to screen applicants for high-stakes decisions in employment, lending, and other domains, concerns have been raised about the effects of algorithmic monoculture, in which many decision-makers all rely on the same algorithm. This concern invokes analogies to agriculture, where a monocultural system runs the risk of severe harm from unexpected shocks. Here, we show that the dangers of algorithmic monoculture run much deeper, in that monocultural convergence on a single algorithm by a group of decision-making agents, even when the algorithm is more accurate for any one agent in isolation, can reduce the overall quality of the decisions being made by the full collection of agents. Unexpected shocks are therefore not needed to expose the risks of monoculture; it can hurt accuracy even under "normal" operations and even for algorithms that are more accurate when used by only a single decision-maker. Our results rely on minimal assumptions and involve the development of a probabilistic framework for analyzing systems that use multiple noisy estimates of a set of alternatives.

Health economic analyses of latent tuberculosis infection screening and preventive treatment among people living with HIV in lower tuberculosis incidence settings: a systematic review.

Introduction: In lower tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year), screening and preventive treatment (PT) for latent TB infection (LTBI) among people living with HIV (PLWH) is often recommended, yet guidelines advising which groups to prioritise for screening can be contradictory and implementation patchy. Evidence of LTBI screening cost-effectiveness may improve uptake and health outcomes at reasonable cost. Methods: Our systematic review assessed cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT strategies among PLWH in lower TB incidence countries to identify model-driving inputs and methodological differences. Databases were searched 1980-2020. Studies including health economic evaluation of LTBI screening of PLWH in lower TB incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year) were included. Study quality was assessed using the CHEERS checklist. Results: Of 2,644 articles screened, nine studies were included. Cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH varied widely, with universal screening/PT found highly cost-effective by some studies, while only targeting to high-risk groups (such as those from mid/high TB incidence countries) deemed cost-effective by others. Cost-effectiveness of strategies screening all PLWH from studies published in the past five years varied from US$2828 to US$144,929/quality-adjusted life-year gained (2018 prices). Study quality varied, with inconsistent reporting of methods and results limiting comparability of studies. Cost-effectiveness varied markedly by screening guideline, with British HIV Association guidelines more cost-effective than NICE guidelines in the UK. Discussion: Cost-effectiveness studies of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH in lower TB incidence settings are scarce, with large variations in methods and assumptions used, target populations and screening/PT strategies evaluated. The limited evidence suggests LTBI screening/PT may be cost-effective for some PLWH groups but further research is required, particularly on strategies targeting screening/PT to PLWH at higher risk. Standardisation of model descriptions and results reporting could facilitate reliable comparisons between studies, particularly to identify those factors driving the wide disparity between cost-effectiveness estimates. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020166338 (18/03/2020).

A Resource-Rational, Process-Level Account of the St. Petersburg Paradox.

The St. Petersburg paradox is a centuries-old philosophical puzzle concerning a lottery with infinite expected payoff for which people are only willing to pay a small amount to play. Despite many attempts and several proposals, no generally accepted resolution is yet at hand. In this work, we present the first resource-rational, process-level explanation of this paradox, demonstrating that it can be accounted for by a variant of normative expected utility valuation which acknowledges cognitive limitations. Specifically, we show that Nobandegani et al.'s (2018) metacognitively rational model, sample-based expected utility (SbEU), can account for major experimental findings on this paradox. Crucially, our resolution is consistent with two empirically well-supported assumptions: (a) People use only a few samples in probabilistic judgments and decision-making, and (b) people tend to overestimate the probability of extreme events in their judgment. Our work seeks to understand the St. Petersburg gamble as a particularly risky gamble whose process-level explanation is consistent with a broader process-level model of human decision-making under risk.

What the Future Holds and When: A Description-Experience Gap in Intertemporal Choice.

Uncertainty about the waiting time before obtaining an outcome is integral to intertemporal choice. Here, we showed that people express different time preferences depending on how they learn about this temporal uncertainty. In two studies, people chose between pairs of options: one with a single, sure delay and the other involving multiple, probabilistic delays (a lottery). The probability of each delay occurring either was explicitly described (timing risk) or could be learned through experiential sampling (timing uncertainty; the delay itself was not experienced). When the shorter delay was rare, people preferred the lottery more often when it was described than when it was experienced. When the longer delay was rare, this pattern was reversed. Modeling analyses suggested that underexperiencing rare delays and different patterns of probability weighting contribute to this description-experience gap. Our results challenge traditional models of intertemporal choice with temporal uncertainty as well as the generality of inverse-S-shaped probability weighting in such choice.

Stated Uptake of Physical Activity Rewards Programmes Among Active and Insufficiently Active Full-Time Employees.

BACKGROUND: Employers are increasingly relying on rewards programmes in an effort to promote greater levels of activity among employees; however, if enrolment in these programmes is dominated by active employees, then they are unlikely to be a good use of resources. OBJECTIVE: This study uses a stated-preference survey to better understand who participates in rewards-based physical activity programmes, and to quantify stated uptake by active and insufficiently active employees. METHODS: The survey was fielded to a national sample of 950 full-time employees in Singapore between 2012 and 2013. Participants were asked to choose between hypothetical rewards programmes that varied along key dimensions and whether or not they would join their preferred programme if given the opportunity. A mixed logit model was used to analyse the data and estimate predicted uptake for specific programmes. We then simulated employer payments based on predictions for the percentage of each type of employee likely to meet the activity goal. RESULTS: Stated uptake ranged from 31 to 67% of employees, depending on programme features. For each programme, approximately two-thirds of those likely to enrol were insufficiently active. CONCLUSION: Results showed that insufficiently active employees, who represent the majority, are attracted to rewards-based physical activity programmes, and at approximately the same rate as active employees, even when enrolment fees are required. This suggests that a programme with generous rewards and a modest enrolment fee may have strong employee support and be within the range of what employers may be willing to spend.

The comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ranibizumab for neovascular macular degeneration revisited.

BACKGROUND: To compare a near decade of follow-up, newer control cohort data, use of both the societal and third party insurer cost perspectives, and integration of unilateral/bilateral therapy on the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of intravitreal ranibizumab therapy for neovascular, age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: Value-Based Medicine®, 12-year, combined-eye model, cost-utility analysis employing MARINA and HORIZON clinical trial data. Preference-based comparative effectiveness outcomes were quantified in (1) QALY (quality-adjusted life-year) gain, and (2) percent improvement in quality-of-life, while cost-effectiveness outcomes were quantified in (3) the cost-utility ratio (CUR) and financial return-on-investment (ROI) to society. RESULTS: Using MARINA and HORIZON trial data and a meta-analysis control cohort after 24 months, ranibizumab therapy conferred a combined-eye patient value (quality-of-life) gain of 16.3%, versus 10.4% found in 2006. The two-year direct ophthalmic medical cost for ranibizumab therapy was $46,450, a 33.8% real dollar decrease from 2006. The societal cost perspective CUR was -$242,920/QALY, indicating a $282,517 financial return-on-investment (ROI), or 12.3%/year to society for direct ophthalmic medical costs expended. The 3rd party insurer CUR ranged from $21,199/QALY utilizing all direct, medical costs, to $69,591/QALY using direct ophthalmic medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: Ranibizumab therapy for neovascular AMD in 2015, considering treatment of both eyes, conferred greater patient value gain (comparative effectiveness) and improved cost-effectiveness than in 2006, as well as a large monetary return-on-investment to the Gross Domestic Product and nation's wealth. The model herein integrates important novel features for neovascular age-related macular degeneration, vitreoretinal cost effectiveness analyses, including: (1) treatment of both eyes, (2) a long-term, untreated control cohort, and (3) the use of societal costs.

A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty.

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that models with the prospect utility (PU) function are more effective than the EU models in the IGT (Ahn et al., 2008). Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests based on our behavioral dataset and modeling, it was determined that the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results. This study aims to modify the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model to a simplified model and used the IGT performance of 145 subjects as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly as the value of α approached zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ, and A in the PU model. Notably, the influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical power structure in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there are other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic-uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found yet. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

A revealed preference approach to valuing non-market recreational fishing losses from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

At an estimated 206 million gallons, the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) is the largest marine oil spill in the history of the United States. In this paper we develop a series of random utility models of site choice by saltwater anglers in the Southeast US and estimate monetary compensation for recreational losses due to the DWH oil spill. Heterogeneity in angler preferences is accounted for by using mixed logit models, and different compensation measures for shore-based, private boat, and for-hire anglers are estimated. Results indicate that willingness to pay for oil spill prevention varies by fishing mode and anglers fishing from shore and private boats exhibit heterogeneous preferences for oil spill avoidance. In addition, the total monetary compensation due to anglers is estimated at USD 585 million.

Integrating cognitive process and descriptive models of attitudes and preferences.

Discrete choice experiments--selecting the best and/or worst from a set of options--are increasingly used to provide more efficient and valid measurement of attitudes or preferences than conventional methods such as Likert scales. Discrete choice data have traditionally been analyzed with random utility models that have good measurement properties but provide limited insight into cognitive processes. We extend a well-established cognitive model, which has successfully explained both choices and response times for simple decision tasks, to complex, multi-attribute discrete choice data. The fits, and parameters, of the extended model for two sets of choice data (involving patient preferences for dermatology appointments, and consumer attitudes toward mobile phones) agree with those of standard choice models. The extended model also accounts for choice and response time data in a perceptual judgment task designed in a manner analogous to best-worst discrete choice experiments. We conclude that several research fields might benefit from discrete choice experiments, and that the particular accumulator-based models of decision making used in response time research can also provide process-level instantiations for random utility models.

Estimating the demand for drop-off recycling sites: a random utility travel cost approach.

Drop-off recycling is one of the most widely adopted recycling programs in the United States. Despite its wide implementation, relatively little literature addresses the demand for drop-off recycling. This study examines the demand for drop-off recycling sites as a function of travel costs and various site characteristics using the random utility model (RUM). The findings of this study indicate that increased travel costs significantly reduce the frequency of visits to drop-off sites implying that the usage pattern of a site is influenced by its location relative to where people live. This study also demonstrates that site specific characteristics such as hours of operation, the number of recyclables accepted, acceptance of commingled recyclables, and acceptance of yard-waste affect the frequency of visits to drop-off sites.

Management of intellectual property rights in India: An updated review.

The World Trade Organization's agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights set global minimum standards for the protection of intellectual property, substantially increasing and expanding intellectual property rights, and generated clear gains for the pharmaceutical industry and the developed world. The present review elaborates all aspects of Intellectual Property Rights in detail, along with their protection criteria.

Sustainability appraisal in infrastructure projects (SUSAIP): Part 1. Development of indicators and computational methods.

The process of translating strategic sustainability objectives into concrete action at project-specific levels is a difficult task. The multi-dimensional perspectives of sustainability such as economy, society, environment, combined with a lack of structured methodology and information at various hierarchical levels, further exacerbate the problem. This paper (Part 1 of a two-part series) proposes an analytical decision model and a structured methodology for sustainability appraisal in infrastructure projects. The paper uses the 'weighted sum model' technique in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and the 'additive utility model' in analytical hierarchical process (AHP) for multi-criteria decision making, to develop the model from first principles. It discusses the development of key performance indicators encapsulated within the analytical model. It concludes by discussing other potential applications of the proposed model and methodology for process automation as part of integrated sustainability appraisal in infrastructure design and construction. Part 2 uses a case study to demonstrate the model application in infrastructure sustainability appraisal at design stages. The paper also discusses the challenges for sustainability research, and gives recommendations.