Clinical impact of very early recurrence after conversion surgery for stage IV gastric cancer.

Background: The development and improved response to chemotherapy has resulted in a survival benefit of conversion surgery (CS) for advanced gastric cancer (GC). However, this benefit is limited in some cases, such as in those with very early recurrence (VER). This study investigated the relationship between outcome and clinicopathological characteristics after CS for stage IV GC, and the risk factors for VER after CS. Methods: We retrospectively studied 184 patients with stage IV GC who initially underwent chemotherapy, including 36 patients who underwent CS between May 2007 and January 2022. We evaluated the long-term outcome after CS for stage IV GC and the clinicopathological characteristics of the patients who underwent CS. Results: Median survival times (MSTs) in the chemotherapy alone and CS groups were 13.4 and 36.5 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Of the 27 patients who underwent R0 resection, 22 remained free of early recurrence and five experienced VER. MSTs in the VER and free of early recurrence groups were 15.2 and 44.1 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Significantly more patients had liver metastasis before initial treatment in the VER group than in the FER group (p = 0.016). There were more patients with preoperative PNI <40 in the VER group (p = 0.046). Conclusion: CS is an effective treatment for stage IV GC, but VER is associated with poor prognosis. We need to carefully consider the indications for CS, especially for patients with poor nutritional status and liver metastases.

Preoperative MRI features predicting very early recurrence of intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma after R0 resection: a comparison with the AJCC 8th edition staging system.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to establish a nomogram based on preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features to predict the very early recurrence (VER, less than 6 months) of intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC) after R0 resection. METHODS: This study enrolled a group of 193 IMCC patients from our institution between March 2010 and January 2022. Patients were allocated into the development cohort (n = 137) and the validation cohort (n = 56), randomly, and the preoperative clinical and MRI features were collected. Univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression assessments were adopted to assess predictors of VER. Nomogram was constructed and certificated in the validation cohort. The performance of the prediction nomogram was evaluated by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. The performance of the nomogram was compared with the T stage of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition staging system. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients (27.5%) experienced VER of the tumor and 140 patients (72.5%) with non-VER, during the follow-up period. After multivariate stepwise logistic regression, number of lesions, diffuse hypoenhancement on arterial phase, necorsis and suspicious lymph nodes were independently associated with VER. The nomogram demonstrated significantly higher area under the curve (AUC) of 0.813 than T stage (AUC = 0.666, P = 0.006) in the development cohort, whereas in the validation cohort, the nomogram showed better discrimination performance, with an AUC of 0.808 than T stage (0.705) with no significantly difference (P = 0.230). Decision curve analysis reflected the clinical net benefit of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: The nomogram based on preoperative MRI features is a reliable tool to predict VER for patients with IMCC after R0 resection. This nomogram will be helpful to improve survival prediction and individualized treatment.

Predicting very early recurrence in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after curative hepatectomy using machine learning radiomics based on CECT: A multi-institutional study.

BACKGROUND: Even after curative resection, the prognosis for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) remains disappointing due to the extremely high incidence of postoperative recurrence. METHODS: A total of 280 iCCA patients following curative hepatectomy from three independent institutions were recruited to establish the retrospective multicenter cohort study. The very early recurrence (VER) of iCCA was defined as the appearance of recurrence within 6 months. The 3D tumor region of interest (ROI) derived from contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) was used for radiomics analysis. The independent clinical predictors for VER were histological stage, AJCC stage, and CA199 levels. We implemented K-means clustering algorithm to investigate novel radiomics-based subtypes of iCCA. Six types of machine learning (ML) algorithms were performed for VER prediction, including logistic, random forest (RF), neural network, bayes, support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Additionally, six clinical ML (CML) models and six radiomics-clinical ML (RCML) models were developed to predict VER. Predictive performance was internally validated by 10-fold cross-validation in the training cohort, and further evaluated in the external validation cohort. RESULTS: Approximately 30 % of patients with iCCA experienced VER with extremely discouraging outcome (Hazard ratio (HR) = 5.77, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI) = 3.73-8.93, P < 0.001). Two distinct iCCA subtypes based on radiomics features were identified, and subtype 2 harbored a higher proportion of VER (47.62 % Vs 25.53 %) and significant shorter survival time than subtype 1. The average AUC values of the CML and RCML models were 0.744 ± 0.018, and 0.900 ± 0.014 in the training cohort, and 0.769 ± 0.065 and 0.929 ± 0.027 in the external validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSION: Two radiomics-based iCCA subtypes were identified, and six RCML models were developed to predict VER of iCCA, which can be used as valid tools to guide individualized management in clinical practice.

Very-early symptomatic recurrence is associated with late recurrence after radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: After radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) of atrial fibrillation (AF), the effect of very-early (within 48 h) symptomatic recurrence (VESR) on late (after 3 months of RFCA) recurrence (LR) has been seldomly reported. We aimed to explore the relationship between VESR and LR among post-RFCA patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a single-centre prospective cohort study that enrolled 6887 AF patients who received the first RFCA procedure from June 2018 to December 2021 at Beijing Anzhen Hospital. Patients were divided into four groups based on VESR and early (from 48 h to 3 months after RFCA) recurrence (ER): Group A (no VESR, no ER); Group B (VESR but no ER); Group C (ER but no VESR); and Group D (both VESR and ER). Three hundred and thirty (4.79%) patients experienced VESR (Groups B and D). With an average follow-up of 14.7 months after grouping, the Kaplan-Meier curve showed that LR risk in VESR patients was higher than in other patients (log-rank, P < 0.001), and the difference was significant in both paroxysmal (log-rank, P < 0.001) and persistent (log-rank, P < 0.001) AF patients (P for interaction = 0.118). In multivariate analysis, Groups B, C, and D were associated with a 2.161-, 5.409-, and 7.401-fold increase in the risk of LR, respectively. What is more, compared with Group A, VESR-atrial tachycardia and VESR-AF were related to a 3.467- and 5.564-fold LR risk, respectively. In VESR patients, classification based on ER and VESR modes improved the prediction potential of LR risk. CONCLUSION: Very-early symptomatic recurrence is associated with an increased risk of LR.

Development and validation of nomogram to predict very early recurrence of combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma after hepatic resection: a multi-institutional study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC) has a high incidence of early recurrence. The objective of this study is to construct a model predicting very early recurrence (VER) (i.e., recurrence within 6 months after surgery) of cHCC. METHODS: One hundred thirty-one consecutive patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital served as a development cohort to construct a nomogram predicting VER by using multi-variable logistic regression analysis. The model was internally and externally validated in a validation cohort of 90 patients from Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital using the C concordance statistic, calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The VER nomogram contains microvascular invasion (MiVI), macrovascular invasion (MaVI), and CA19-9 > 25 mAU/mL. The model shows good discrimination with C-indexes of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69-0.85) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.66-0.86) in the development cohort and validation cohort respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model is clinically useful and the calibration of our model was favorable. Our model stratified patients into two different risk groups, which exhibited significantly different VER. CONCLUSIONS: Our model demonstrated favorable performance in predicting VER in cHCC patients.

A novel model in predicting very early recurrence after surgical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma / 中华肝胆外科杂志

Objective:To study the risk factors of very early recurrence (VER, within 3 months) after R 0 resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and to establish a predictive model. Methods:Of 427 HCC patients [with 368 males, 59 females, aged (52.7±12.1) years] who developed early recurrence (within 2 years) after R 0 resection from January to December 2008 at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University were enrolled in the test cohort. Another 590 patients [with 525 males, 65 females, aged (54.7±11.0) years] who underwent R 0 resection from January to June 2009 were enrolled in the validation cohort. Risk factors were investigated and a predictive model was established. Results:In the test cohort, 126 patients (29.5%) developed VER and their survival outcomes were extremely poor. Serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level >827 μg/L, multiple tumors, microvascular invasion (MVI) and tumor number were independent risk factors for VER. A new predictive model (0.809·AFP+ 1.262·tumor number+ 0.983·MVI) was established by logistic regression in predicting VER after surgery. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) in predicting VER was 0.722 (95% CI: 0.669-0.774, P<0.001). In the validation cohort, the AUC of this model was 0.785 (95% CI: 0.715-0.855, P<0.001). Conclusions:A high AFP level, multiple tumors, and MVI were independent risk factors for VER of HCC after R 0 resection. The prediction model consisting of these three factors demonstrated robustness and it has the potential in clinical application.

Noninvasive electrocardiography monitoring for very early recurrence predicts long-term outcome in patients after atrial fibrillation ablation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia, and catheter ablation has been shown to be a highly effective treatment for patients with symptomatic AF. Very early recurrence (VER) of AF within 7 days after catheter ablation is common, but the clinical significance of VER remains unclear. We have examined the usefulness of the noninvasive electrocardiography monitor for the detection of VER and the relationship between VER and late recurrence (LR). METHODS: Eighty-eight patients with paroxysmal or persistent atrial fibrillation were retrospectively included. All patients underwent primary catheter ablation at a large general hospital between March 2016 and August 2018. All patients were followed up in atrial fibrillation clinic at an interval of every 3 months for late recurrence of AF. VER was evaluated by one-lead continuous noninvasive electrocardiography monitoring device for 7 days after ablation. The association between VER and LR was analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression model. RESULTS: Mean age was 62.9 ± 9.7 years, and 39.8% were female. Thirty-two patients (36.4%) experienced VER. After a mean follow-up of 539.36 ± 211.66 days, 17 patients (19.3%) experienced LR. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed VER was an independent predictor of LR: HR 3.6 (95% CI, 1.2-10.8), p = .020. In addition, diabetes was also associated with LR of atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSIONS: Noninvasive electrocardiography monitoring was a useful tool for detecting VER and VER after catheter ablation was associated with LR.

Very early recurrence predicts long-term outcome in patients after atrial fibrillation catheter ablation: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term recurrence (LR) is a tendency that re-occurs within 3 months after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether very early recurrence (VER) within 7 days of post ablation is a prognostic factor of LR or not is unclear. For this reason, present study sought to examine the relationship between VER and LR. METHODS: In this prospective analysis 378 consecutive patients underwent an initial catheter ablation for paroxysmal or persistent AF. The association between VER and LR was analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression, as well as time-dependent receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 14.71 ± 8.58 months, 81 (65.90%) patients with VER experienced LR and were associated with lower event of free survival from LR (Log rank test, P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that VER (HR = 7.02, 95% CI = 4.78-10.31; P < 0.001), left atrial enlargement (HR = 2.92, 95% CI = 1.88-4.54; P < 0.001), tendency in advanced age (HR = 1.50, 95% CI = 0.99-2.28; P = 0.054), and tendency in male (HR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.50-1.01; P = 0.060) were independent predictors of LR. According to time-dependent ROC analysis, it was found that VER was more sensitive than common risk factors in predicting LR (0.74 vs 0.66, P < 0.001) and combination model further improved the C statistic for predicting LR (0.82 vs 0.66, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: After a single procedure of catheter ablation, patients with VER were strongly associated with LR and combination of VER and common risk factors could further improve prediction of patients who were at high risk for LR.