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A burgeoning demographic literature documents the exceedingly high rates at which contemporary cohorts of women across the Global South experience the death of their children-even amid historic declines in child mortality. Yet, the patterning of maternal bereavement remains underinvestigated, as does the extent to which it replicates across generations of the same family. To that end, we ask: Are the surviving daughters of bereaved mothers more likely to eventually experience maternal bereavement? How does the intergenerational clustering of maternal bereavement vary across countries and cohorts? To answer these questions, we make use of Demographic and Health Survey Program data from 50 low- and middle-income countries, encompassing data on 1.05 million women and their mothers spanning three decadal birth cohorts. Descriptive results demonstrate that maternal bereavement is increasingly patterned intergenerationally across cohorts, with most women experiencing the same fate as their mothers. Multivariable hazard models further show that, on average, women whose mothers were maternally bereaved have significantly increased odds of losing a child themselves. In most countries, the association is stable across cohorts; however, in select countries, the risk associated with having a bereaved mother is shrinking among more recent birth cohorts.
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Luto , Mortalidade da Criança , Países em Desenvolvimento , Mães , Humanos , Feminino , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Lactente , Adulto , Pré-Escolar , Mães/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adulto Jovem , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Relação entre Gerações , Adolescente , Recém-Nascido , Fatores Sociodemográficos , Análise por ConglomeradosRESUMO
Although studies observe heterogeneity in the effects of adolescent childbearing on schooling, little is currently known about when this pattern emerged or how it changed across cohorts of women who lived in distinct periods of US history. This article identifies the potential origins of effect heterogeneity in the educational costs of adolescent childbearing and extends recent advances in causal inference to detect group differences in heterogeneity. The analysis applies this approach to four cohorts of women from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) who entered adolescence before, during, and after expansive economic, demographic, and cultural change in the twentieth century. Results suggest that the educational costs of adolescent childbearing, as well as heterogeneity in those costs, increased for women in the latter half of the twentieth century, especially for millennial women born 1980-84. The authors conclude that midcentury social changes fundamentally altered the educational costs of adolescent childbearing for women.
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An intense period of human population expansion over the past 250 years is about to cease. Total fertility rates are falling dramatically all over the world such that highly industrialized nations, including China and the tiger economies of SE Asia, will see their populations decline significantly in the coming decades. The socioeconomic, geopolitical and environmental ramifications of this change are considerable and invite a multidisciplinary consideration of the underlying mechanisms. In the short-term, socioeconomic factors, particularly urbanization and delayed childbearing are powerful drivers of reduced fertility. In parallel, lifestyle factors such as obesity and the presence of numerous reproductive toxicants in the environment, including air-borne pollutants, nanoplastics and electromagnetic radiation, are seriously compromising reproductive health. In the longer term, it is hypothesized that the reduction in family size that accompanies the demographic transition will decrease selection pressure on high fertility genes leading to a progressive loss of human fecundity. Paradoxically, the uptake of assisted reproductive technologies at scale, may also contribute to such fecundity loss by encouraging the retention of poor fertility genotypes within the population. Since the decline in fertility rate that accompanies the demographic transition appears to be ubiquitous, the public health implications for our species are potentially devastating.
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Contemporary trends in low fertility can in part be explained by increasing incentives to invest in offspring's embodied capital over offspring quantity in environments where education is a salient source of social mobility. However, studies on this subject have often neglected to empirically examine heterogeneity, missing out on the opportunity to investigate how this relationship is impacted when individuals are excluded from meaningful participation in economic spheres. Using General Social Survey data from the United States, I examine changes in the relationship between number of siblings and college attendance for White and Black respondents throughout the 1900s. Results show that in the early 1900s, White individuals from larger families had a lower chance of completing four years of college education than those from smaller families, whereas the likelihood for Black individuals was more uniform across family sizes. These racial differences mostly converged in the later part of the century. These results may help explain variations in the timing of demographic transitions within different racial groups in the United States and suggest that the benefits of decreasing family size on educational outcomes may be conditional on the specific economic opportunities afforded to a family.
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Negro ou Afro-Americano , Escolaridade , Características da Família , Brancos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Características da Família/etnologia , Fertilidade , História do Século XX , Estados UnidosRESUMO
This paper examines childbearing in and outside of marriage as a manifestation of the Second Demographic Transition among immigrant populations in Switzerland. Based on full-population register data, we simultaneously analyse fertility and partnership changes at different stages of the migration process. Results from a multistate event history model show that most of the differences in family formation patterns between migrant groups and natives are in the sequencing of marriage and first birth among childless unmarried women. Out of wedlock family trajectories prove to be a common experience for European migrants, but a sustainable family pathway only among natives, as well as among immigrants from France, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Among married women, it is the risk of a third birth that marks the differences between groups; first and second birth rates are relatively similar across migrant groups. Distinguishing between the transition patterns of newly arrived immigrants and settled immigrants (characterised by various residence durations) support the disruption hypothesis among EU migrants and the interrelated life events hypothesis among non-EU groups. Family size and the partnership context of fertility highlight which family regime prevails in different population subgroups and the role that immigrants play in the Second Demographic Transition and family transformation in Europe.
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A central premise of the first demographic transition theory is that demographic change would occur more slowly in rural than urban areas. Few studies, however, have investigated whether rural areas remain holdouts during the second demographic transition. To address this gap, this study (1) examines trends among rural and urban families in Canada and the United States over a 30-year period and (2) determines whether compositional differences in demographic, socioeconomic, and religious factors explain current differences between rural and urban families. We find that rural Canadian women continue to have, on average, 0.6 more children than urban women. However, rural families do not trail behind urban families on any other indicator of family change. In fact, rural women in both countries are now significantly more likely to cohabit and roughly 10 percentage points more likely to have children outside of marriage than urban women. These differences are largely explained by lower levels of education and income among rural American women and fewer immigrants in rural Canada. Examining family change through a rural-urban lens fills important empirical gaps and yields novel insights into current debates on the fundamental causes of ongoing family change in high-income countries.
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Fertilidade , População Rural , Criança , Feminino , Estados Unidos , Humanos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , População Urbana , Canadá , Dinâmica Populacional , Países em DesenvolvimentoRESUMO
Over the past half a century many countries have witnessed a rapid fall in total fertility rates, particularly in the world's most advanced economies including the industrial powerhouses of Eastern Asia and Europe. Such nations have now passed through the first and second demographic transitions and are currently exhibiting fertility rates well below the replacement threshold of 2.1, with no sign of recovery. This paper examines the factors responsible for driving these demographic transitions and considers their impact on both fertility and fecundity (our fundamental capacity to reproduce). I argue that because the first demographic transition was extremely rapid and largely driven by socioeconomic factors, it has had no lasting impact on the genetic/epigenetic underpinnings of human fecundity. However, the second demographic transition will be different. A series of conditions associated with low fertility societies, including relaxed selection pressure for high-fertility genotypes, the indiscriminate use of assisted reproductive technologies to treat human infertility, and environmental contamination with reproductive toxicants, may impact our genetic constitution in ways that compromise the future fecundity of our species. Since any fundamental change in the genetic foundations of human reproduction will be difficult to reverse, we should actively pursue methods to monitor human fecundity, as sub-replacement fertility levels become established across the globe.
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The balance between human growth, economic prosperity, and the consumption of hydrocarbon energy factors has become a prerequisite for environmental sustainability. However, the complexities of these factors force researchers to work for more viable combinations of such a balance. Therefore, this study attempted to determine the factors driving environmental sustainability in leading populated economies. For this purpose, the Logarithmic Mean Division Index (LMDI) utilized to decompose critical factors such as activity, economy, real density, energy intensity, and suburban effects for the period 1999-2022. Both population and its consequences (economic activity) have been found to be the leading factors behind environmental fluctuations, and energy has a negative impact on hydrocarbon forms, while contributing positively to environmental sustainability with high efficiency and low intensity. Therefore, sustainable demographic and energy transitions can be leading pathways for environmental sustainability in developing economies.
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Fatores Sociais , Desenvolvimento Sustentável , Humanos , Dióxido de Carbono , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Hidrocarbonetos , Energia RenovávelRESUMO
While it is commonly assumed that farmers have higher, and foragers lower, fertility compared to populations practicing other forms of subsistence, robust supportive evidence is lacking. We tested whether subsistence activities-incorporating market integration-are associated with fertility in 10,250 women from 27 small-scale societies and found considerable variation in fertility. This variation did not align with group-level subsistence typologies. Societies labeled as "farmers" did not have higher fertility than others, while "foragers" did not have lower fertility. However, at the individual level, we found strong evidence that fertility was positively associated with farming and moderate evidence of a negative relationship between foraging and fertility. Markers of market integration were strongly negatively correlated with fertility. Despite strong cross-cultural evidence, these relationships were not consistent in all populations, highlighting the importance of the socioecological context, which likely influences the diverse mechanisms driving the relationship between fertility and subsistence.
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Economia , Fertilidade , Feminino , Humanos , Dinâmica Populacional , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Países em DesenvolvimentoRESUMO
Introduction The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is fast changing across the world, especially in the context of rapid urbanization, adoption of Western lifestyles, and an aging multi-morbid population. Over the last three decades, India has undergone a significant demographic and socioeconomic transition. For effective targeting of health system resources and services, it is essential to understand how the prevalence of NCDs varies among population groups across India. We set out to understand the distribution of NCDs and co-morbidities in urban and rural West Bengal. Methods As part of a service improvement project, data was collected from four urban and four rural community-based clinics across West Bengal, India. The reason for visiting the healthcare center was recorded as the primary diagnosis and co-morbidities were recorded per the Elixhauser comorbidity scoring criteria. Associations between all the demographic variables and NCDs were studied using the Poisson regression model and multivariate analysis. Demographic profile, co-morbidities, and Elixhauser comorbidity index were expressed as frequency (%), mean (standard deviation, SD), or median (interquartile range, IQR) as appropriate. Results We obtained data from 1244 patients of which 886 (71%) were from urban areas and 358 (29%) were from rural areas. Patients were mostly female (61%) and had a mean (SD) age of 53 (11) years. There was a positive correlation between living in an urban residence and age, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and respiratory disease. There was a positive correlation between CVD and age, male sex, living in an urban residence, and hypertension but did not correlate positively with diabetes. BMI positively correlated with living in an urban residence, hypertension, diabetes, and musculoskeletal disorders. We observed a significantly higher prevalence of musculoskeletal (p=0.002) and psychological diseases (p<0.001) in the rural population, while the prevalence of hypertension (p<0.001) and respiratory diseases among the participants living in urban areas was higher (p<0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of diabetes between urban and rural areas (p=0.38). In the multivariable analyses, we observed that increased age, being overweight, and living in urban areas were associated with hypertension (prevalence ratio (PR): 1.40, 1.30, and 1.30, respectively; all p-values <0.05). An interaction between sex and living area was associated with a lower prevalence of musculoskeletal diseases (PR: 0.34; 95%CI: 0.18-0.66), i.e., musculoskeletal diseases were less prevalent in males living in urban areas (p=0.002). Conclusion There is a rise in multimorbidity with changing demographic patterns and a narrowing of the urban-rural gap in disease distribution. More investment is required in risk factor prevention, screening, and treatment, with greater accessibility of healthcare resources for those in rural areas. Further work needs to be done to study the trends and distribution of NCDs in West Bengal to inform healthcare policy.
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During the last few decades, Western societies have undergone substantial social and demographic changes, and the transition to adulthood progressively moved from an early, contracted, and simple pattern to a late, protracted, and complex one. These trends have been extensively analyzed under the Second Demographic Transition framework, emphasizing the role of individual agency and ideational change. A growing parallel literature underlines social stratification, the gender revolution, and contextual opportunities as driving forces. This paper builds on this emerging literature to analyze trends of the transition to adulthood in Italy, a salient social and demographic context among the "lowest-low" fertility countries. Drawing from the European Social Survey 2018 data, I use Sequence Analysis to compute a taxonomy of ideal types of transition to adulthood and analyze their evolution across cohorts. These analyses show that the emergence of a late and protracted transition to adulthood, associated with "lowest-low" fertility levels, is stratified by gender and socioeconomic background. This study contributes to the growing literature on the social stratification of life course trajectories and the relevance of contextual opportunities and constraints by analyzing the transition to adulthood in a low-opportunity context from a longitudinal, stratified perspective.
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Fertilidade , Processos Mentais , Humanos , ItáliaRESUMO
The world is generally getting more prosperous and healthier, and people live longer. Japan, with the world's most advanced population ageing, has made various efforts over the past half-century to prepare for the ageing society. Globally, many countries observe today's rapid demographic changes accompanied by low birth rate and start acknowledging population shrinkage as a looming challenge beyond that of population ageing. The world will face dual challenges of population ageing and shrinkage, but these two issues have been considered in isolation. In addition, the progression differs from region to region and country to country, preventing policymakers from taking a future-back approach to address the core challenges. This issue of Global Health & Medicine carries two valuable articles on population ageing and related policies reported by staff members of the WHO Western Pacific Regional Office (WPRO) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). This paper will consider the importance of ageing and low fertility rate (declining birthrate) as global issues by placing the WHO and UNFPA articles in a broader context. Population ageing and shrinkage overlap and significantly impact society through health issues. Still, the impact on countries, regions, and the world will become obvious with a time lag. Therefore, this paper advocates analyzing and critically reviewing the experience of countries in which demographic changes are already well advanced, and sharing them with the world. This will contribute significantly to those regions and countries that will walk the same path in the future.
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This manuscript examines the relationship between child mortality and subsequent fertility using longitudinal data on births and childhood deaths occurring among 15,291 Tanzanian mothers between 2000 and 2015. Generalized hazard regression analyses assess the effect of child loss on the hazard of conception, adjusting for child-level, mother-level, and contextual covariates. Results show that time to conception is most reduced if an index child dies during the subsequent birth interval, representing the combined effect of biological and volitional replacement. Deaths occurring during prior birth intervals were associated with accelerated time to conception during future intervals, consistent with hypothesized insurance effects of anticipating future child loss, but this effect is smaller than replacement effects. The analysis reveals that residence in areas of relatively high child mortality is associated with hastened parity progression, again consistent with the insurance hypothesis. Investigation of high-order interactions suggests that insurance effects tend to be greater in low-mortality communities, replacement effects tend to be stronger in high-mortality community contexts, and wealthier families tend to exhibit a weaker insurance response but a stronger replacement response to childhood mortality relative to poorer families.
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Intervalo entre Nascimentos , Mortalidade da Criança , Fertilidade , Feminino , Humanos , Gravidez , População Rural , Tanzânia/epidemiologia , CriançaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: There is a lack of knowledge concerning how changes in family structures are associated with involvement in child welfare systems. Particularly little attention has been paid to the role of parental relationship transitions, which may involve major changes in the lives of children and parents in terms of housing, finances, and relationship boundaries between family members. OBJECTIVE: To investigate how transitions in parental relationship status are linked to referrals to the child welfare system. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All children born in Norway in 1995 (N = 60,218) and 2005 (N = 56,644) and their parents. METHODS: This retrospective birth cohort study consisted of child welfare statistics merged with various registers from Statistics Norway. Logistic panel-data models were used to examine the relationship between the occurrence of a parental relationship transition and referral to the child welfare system. Four types of relationship transitions were analyzed: (1) couple to a single mother, (2) couple to a single father, (3) single mother to a couple, and (4) single father to a couple. RESULTS: The occurrence of any type of relationship transition increased the likelihood of referral to the child welfare system in the year that the transition occurred, with the transitions to single motherhood, to single fatherhood, and from single fatherhood to a couple associated with greater odds of referral than the transition from single motherhood to a couple. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding how parental relationship transitions are associated with referrals to the child welfare system is important to appropriately facilitate help to families in need.
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Proteção da Criança , Pais , Criança , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Encaminhamento e Consulta , Noruega/epidemiologiaRESUMO
This review's main objective is to discuss how demographic and epidemiological transitions relate to the burden of adolescent healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The review explicitly discussed the burden of adolescent healthcare, the current African policies on adolescent healthcare, and gaps in the African policies compared with Europe and North America. We also examined how adolescent healthcare policies evolve and documented the recommended essential part of the policy for enhancing its sustainability. The burden of adolescent health is high in SSA with diseases and reproductive health-related problems prevailing among adolescents. However, variations exist in the burden of adolescent healthcare across countries in the region. While some SSA countries are currently undergoing demographic and epidemiological transition processes concerning adolescent health care, the majority are either at an early stage of the transition or yet to commence the process. Policy-makers should consider effective ways to improve adolescents' health in SSA through preventive mechanisms and a multi-dimensional approach.
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Serviços de Saúde do Adolescente , Saúde do Adolescente , Política de Saúde , Saúde Reprodutiva , População da África Subsaariana , Adolescente , Humanos , População Negra/etnologia , População Negra/estatística & dados numéricos , Instalações de Saúde , Saúde Reprodutiva/etnologia , Saúde Reprodutiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Reprodutiva/tendências , População da África Subsaariana/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde do Adolescente/etnologia , Saúde do Adolescente/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde do Adolescente/tendências , Serviços de Saúde do Adolescente/estatística & dados numéricos , Serviços de Saúde do Adolescente/tendências , África Subsaariana/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Política de Saúde/tendênciasRESUMO
I examine the implications of a modern psychological theory of values for the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). The SDT derives its values theory and measurement from Maslow, who noted that resource-rich environments cause value shifts towards personal-focused growth values. However, Maslow has been replaced by the theory of basic human values (TBHV) which distinguishes person and social-focused growth values. This distinction has two important implications for the SDT. First, some individualistic and self-expressive values identified by the SDT are not growth but basic need motivated and therefore functions of resource-poor environments. Second, the TBHV values on interdependence and independence are strongly influenced by gender and reflect preferences for family and care or career. Therefore, these values can be used to address critiques of the SDT based on the stalled gender revolution. I show that distinguishing values as described in the TBHV can be useful for the SDT. I find that benevolence (interdependence) is positively and openness to change (autonomy/stimulation) is negatively related to marriage in the Netherlands using longitudinal panel data and discrete event history models.
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The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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The evolution of a cultural trait may be affected by niche construction, or changes in the selective environment of that trait due to the inheritance of other cultural traits that make up a cultural background. This study investigates the evolution of a cultural trait, such as the acceptance of the idea of contraception, that is both vertically and horizontally transmitted within a homogeneous social network. Individuals may conform to the norm, and adopters of the trait have fewer progeny than others. In addition, adoption of this trait is affected by a vertically transmitted aspect of the cultural background, such as the preference for high or low levels of education. Our model shows that such cultural niche construction can facilitate the spread of traits with low Darwinian fitness while providing an environment that counteracts conformity to norms. In addition, niche construction can facilitate the 'demographic transition' by making reduced fertility socially accepted.
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Anticoncepcionais , Evolução Cultural , Humanos , Fertilidade , Cultura , Comportamento SocialRESUMO
BACKGROUND: In collaboration with local partners, we reviewed 18 national policy documents across two sub-Saharan African countries identified as pre-dividend nations by the World Bank in 2017: Nigeria and Tanzania. Our aim was to assess national policies in pre-dividend countries and to determine whether national strategies were primed to capitalize on changing demographic structures, maximally attain the demographic dividend, and augment socio-economic growth. METHODS: We conducted policy reviews by focusing on five key sectors of the Gates Institute Demographic Dividend Framework: Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, Education, Women's Empowerment, and Labor Market. This framework was developed as a tool for countries to apply targeted policies for accelerating the demographic dividend based on their demographic structure. For each component we used a comprehensive list of indicators, defined via a systematic literature review, through which we assessed national policies aimed at maximizing the demographic dividend. RESULTS: Between the two countries, we observed persistent gaps in policies targeting family planning. Although more comprehensive, policies addressing maternal and child health, education, women's empowerment, and labor market still lagged in their specificity and measurability. We identified specific policy amendments and alternatives that Nigeria and Tanzania could consider to mitigate these gaps. We also stress the importance of designing measurable policy initiatives across sectors. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these recommendations, as Nigeria, Tanzania, and other pre-dividend nations start experiencing rapid demographic changes, they may consider implementing routine policy reviews to strengthen policies across the five key sectors and harness the benefits of a demographic dividend.