Development and validation of a simple web-based tool for early prediction of COVID-19-associated death in kidney transplant recipients.

This analysis, using data from the Brazilian kidney transplant (KT) COVID-19 study, seeks to develop a prediction score to assist in COVID-19 risk stratification in KT recipients. In this study, 1379 patients (35 sites) were enrolled, and a machine learning approach was used to fit models in a derivation cohort. A reduced Elastic Net model was selected, and the accuracy to predict the 28-day fatality after the COVID-19 diagnosis, assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC), was confirmed in a validation cohort. The better calibration values were used to build the applicable ImAgeS score. The 28-day fatality rate was 17% (n = 235), which was associated with increasing age, hypertension and cardiovascular disease, higher body mass index, dyspnea, and use of mycophenolate acid or azathioprine. Higher kidney graft function, longer time of symptoms until COVID-19 diagnosis, presence of anosmia or coryza, and use of mTOR inhibitor were associated with reduced risk of death. The coefficients of the best model were used to build the predictive score, which achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.767 (95% CI 0.698-0.834) in the validation cohort. In conclusion, the easily applicable predictive model could assist health care practitioners in identifying non-hospitalized kidney transplant patients that may require more intensive monitoring. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04494776.

Transplant trends in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic: Disparities within healthcare sectors.

Healthcare systems worldwide were challenged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Mexico, the public hospitals that perform most transplants were adapted to provide care for COVID-19 patients. Using a nationwide database, we describe the first report of the impact of COVID-19 and related transplantation healthcare policies in a middle-income country by comparing statistics before and during the pandemic (pre-COVID: March 2019-February 2020 vs. COVID era: March 2020-February 2021) and by type of institution (public vs. private). The global reduction in transplantation was higher in public institutions compared with private institutions, 89% versus 62%, respectively, p < .001. When analyzing by organ, kidney transplantation decreased by 89% at public versus 57% at private, p < .001; cornea by 88% at public versus 64% at private, p < .001; liver by 88% at public versus 35% at private, p < .001; and heart by 88% in public versus 67% at private institutions, p = .4. The COVID-19 pandemic along with the implemented health policies were associated with a decrease in donations, waiting list additions, and a decrease in transplantation, particularly at public institutions, which care for the most vulnerable.

Organ donation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a rapidly changing circumstance with dramatic policy changes and universal efforts to deal with the initial crisis and minimize its consequences. To identify changes to organ donation and transplantation during this time, an anonymous web-based survey was distributed to 19 select organ procurement organizations (OPOs) throughout the United States comparing 90-day activity during March-May 2020 and March-May 2019. Seventeen OPOs responded to the survey (response rate of 89.5%). Organ authorization decreased by 11% during the current pandemic (n = 1379 vs n = 1552, P = .0001). Organ recovery for transplantation fell by 17% (P = .0001) with a further 18% decrease in the number of organs transplanted (P = .0001). Donor cause of death demonstrated a 4.5% decline in trauma but a 35% increase in substance abuse cases during the COVID-19 period. All OPOs reported significant modifications in response to the pandemic, limiting the onsite presence of staff and transitioning to telephonic approaches for donor family correspondence. Organ donation during the current climate has seen significant changes and the long-term implications of such shifts remain unclear. These trends during the COVID-19 era warrant further investigation to address unmet needs, plan for a proportionate response to the virus and mitigate the collateral impact.

Ureterocalicostomy with lower pole nephrectomy in a renal transplant: A case report.

As the number of kidney transplants continues to rise, so does the number and complexities of surgical-related complications, which may be associated with increased morbidity and potentially graft loss. Ureteral stenosis, the most prevalent urological complication, may require diverse techniques for surgical correction depending on several recipient and graft abnormalities. Here we report the surgical and clinical outcomes of a 62-year-old man with a posttransplant pyeloureterostomy stricture successfully treated with ureterocalicostomy after a lower pole nephrectomy. Although the resection of renal parenchyma may prevent a stenosis recurrence, surgeons can be reluctant to use this strategy due to the possible negative impact on renal function. We highlight some key steps of the surgical technique to prevent unnecessary allograft lesion and present short-term outcomes, suggesting that this rarely described procedure is a safe and effective alternative treatment for kidney transplant recipients with pyeloureterostomy stenosis.

Sustained Posttransplantation Diabetes Is Associated With Long-Term Major Cardiovascular Events Following Liver Transplantation.

Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death among liver transplant (LT) recipients. With a rising burden of posttransplantation metabolic disease, increases in cardiovascular-related morbidity and mortality may reduce life expectancy after LT. It is unknown if the risk of long-term major cardiovascular events (MCEs) differs among LT recipients with varying diabetic states. We performed a retrospective cohort study of LT recipients from 2003 through 2013 to compare the incidence of MCEs among patients (1) without diabetes, (2) with pretransplantation diabetes, (3) with de novo transient posttransplantation diabetes, and (4) with de novo sustained posttransplantation diabetes. We analyzed 994 eligible patients (39% without diabetes, 24% with pretransplantation diabetes, 16% with transient posttransplantation diabetes, and 20% with sustained posttransplantation diabetes). Median follow-up was 54.7 months. Overall, 12% of patients experienced a MCE. After adjustment for demographic and clinical variables, sustained posttransplantation diabetes was the only state associated with a significantly increased risk of MCEs (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.95, 95% confidence interval 1.20-3.18). Patients with sustained posttransplantation diabetes mellitus had a 13% and 27% cumulative incidence of MCEs at 5 and 10 years, respectively. While pretransplantation diabetes has traditionally been associated with cardiovascular disease, the long-term risk of MCEs is greatest in LT recipients with sustained posttransplantation diabetes mellitus.

Impact of Protease Inhibitor-Based Anti-Retroviral Therapy on Outcomes for HIV+ Kidney Transplant Recipients.

Excellent outcomes have been demonstrated among select HIV-positive kidney transplant (KT) recipients with well-controlled infection, but to date, no national study has explored outcomes among HIV+ KT recipients by antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen. Intercontinental Marketing Services (IMS) pharmacy fills (1/1/01-10/1/12) were linked with Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) data. A total of 332 recipients with pre- and posttransplantation fills were characterized by ART at the time of transplantation as protease inhibitor (PI) or non-PI-based ART (88 PI vs. 244 non-PI). Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for recipient and donor characteristics. Comparing recipients by ART regimen, there were no significant differences in age, race, or HCV status. Recipients on PI-based regimens were significantly more likely to have an Estimated Post Transplant Survival (EPTS) score of >20% (70.9% vs. 56.3%, p = 0.02) than those on non-PI regimens. On adjusted analyses, PI-based regimens were associated with a 1.8-fold increased risk of allograft loss (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-2.77, p = 0.003), with the greatest risk observed in the first posttransplantation year (aHR 4.48, 95% CI 1.75-11.48, p = 0.002), and a 1.9-fold increased risk of death as compared to non-PI regimens (aHR 1.91, 95% CI 1.02-3.59, p = 0.05). These results suggest that whenever possible, recipients should be converted to a non-PI regimen prior to kidney transplantation.

Regional Differences in Communication Process and Outcomes of Requests for Solid Organ Donation.

Although federal mandate prohibits the allocation of solid organs for transplantation based on "accidents of geography," geographic variation of transplantable organs is well documented. This study explores regional differences in communication in requests for organ donation. Administrative data from nine partnering organ procurement organizations and interview data from 1339 family decision makers (FDMs) were compared across eight geographically distinct US donor service areas (DSAs). Authorization for organ donation ranged from 60.4% to 98.1% across DSAs. FDMs from the three regions with the lowest authorization rates reported the lowest levels of satisfaction with the time spent discussing donation and with the request process, discussion of the least donation-related topics, the highest levels of pressure to donate, and the least comfort with the donation decision. Organ procurement organization region predicted authorization (odds ratios ranged from 8.14 to 0.24), as did time spent discussing donation (OR = 2.11), the number of donation-related topics discussed (OR = 1.14), and requesters' communication skill (OR = 1.14). Standardized training for organ donation request staff is needed to ensure the highest quality communication during requests, optimize rates of family authorization to donation in all regions, and increase the supply of organs available for transplantation.

A Comparison of Request Process and Outcomes in Donation After Cardiac Death and Donation After Brain Death: Results From a National Study.

Available literature points to healthcare providers' discomfort with donation after cardiac death (DCD) and their perception of public reluctance toward the procedure. Using a national sample, we report on the communication content of actual DCD and donation after brain death (DBD) approaches by organ procurement organization (OPO) requesters and compare family decision makers' (FDMs') experiences of both modalities. We recruited 1601 FDMs using a validated protocol; 347 (21.7%) were of potential DCD donors. Semistructured telephone interviews yielded FDMs' sociodemographic data, donation attitudes, assessment of approach, final outcomes, and substantiating reasons. Initial analysis consisted of bivariate analyses. Multilevel mixture models compared groups representing authorization outcome and DCD/DBD status. No significant differences in family authorization were found between DCD and DBD cases. Statistically significant associations were found between sociodemographic characteristics and authorization, with white FDMs more likely to authorize DCD or DBD than black FDMs. FDMs of both modalities had similar evaluations of requester skills, topics discussed, satisfaction, and refusal reasons. The findings suggest that the DCD/DBD distinction may not be notable to families. We recommend the use of similar approach strategies and communication skills and the development of education campaigns about the public's acceptance of DCD.

Long-Term Medical and Psychosocial Outcomes in Living Liver Donors.

Due to the enduring organ shortage, living donor liver transplantation has been a valuable treatment strategy for advanced liver disease patients for over 20 years. A variety of reviews have summarized the extensive data now available on medical and psychosocial risks to living donors in the aftermath of donation. However, evidence on donor medical and psychosocial outcomes beyond the first year postdonation has not been synthesized in any previous review. The evidence base on such "long-term" outcomes has been growing in recent years. A review of this evidence would therefore be timely and could serve as an important resource to assist transplant centers in their efforts to fully educate prospective donors and gain informed consent, as well as develop appropriate postdonation clinical care and surveillance plans. We reviewed recent literature on long-term donor outcomes, considering (a) medical outcomes, including mortality risk, rates of complications, abnormalities detected in laboratory testing, and the progress of liver regeneration; and (b) donor-reported psychosocial outcomes reflecting physical, emotional, and interpersonal/socioeconomic well-being, as well as overall health-related quality of life. We summarize limitations and gaps in available evidence, and we provide recommendations for future research and clinical care activities focused on long-term outcomes in liver donors.

Pattern and Predictors of Hospital Readmission During the First Year After Lung Transplantation.

Hospital readmission after lung transplantation negatively affects quality of life and resource utilization. A secondary analysis of data collected prospectively was conducted to identify the pattern of (incidence, count, cumulative duration), reasons for and predictors of readmission for 201 lung transplant recipients (LTRs) assessed at 2, 6, and 12 mo after discharge. The majority of LTRs (83.6%) were readmitted, and 64.2% had multiple readmissions. The median cumulative readmission duration was 19 days. The main reasons for readmission were other than infection or rejection (55.5%), infection only (25.4%), rejection only (9.9%), and infection and rejection (0.7%). LTRs who required reintubation (odds ratio [OR] 1.92; p = 0.008) or were discharged to care facilities (OR 2.78; p = 0.008) were at higher risk for readmission, with a 95.7% cumulative incidence of readmission at 12 mo. Thirty-day readmission (40.8%) was not significantly predicted by baseline characteristics. Predictors of higher readmission count were lower capacity to engage in self-care (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.99; p = 0.03) and discharge to care facilities (IRR 1.45; p = 0.01). Predictors of longer cumulative readmission duration were older age (arithmetic mean ratio [AMR] 1.02; p = 0.009), return to the intensive care unit (AMR 2.00; p = 0.01) and lower capacity to engage in self-care (AMR 0.99; p = 0.03). Identifying LTRs at risk may assist in optimizing predischarge care, discharge planning and long-term follow-up.

Use of Population-based Data to Demonstrate How Waitlist-based Metrics Overestimate Geographic Disparities in Access to Liver Transplant Care.

Liver allocation policies are evaluated by how they impact waitlisted patients, without considering broader outcomes for all patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) not on the waitlist. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using two nationally representative databases: HealthCore (2006-2014) and five-state Medicaid (California, Florida, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania; 2002-2009). United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) linkages enabled ascertainment of waitlist- and transplant-related outcomes. We included patients aged 18-75 with ESLD (decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma) using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9)-based algorithms. Among 16 824 ESLD HealthCore patients, 3-year incidences of waitlisting and transplantation were 15.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] : 15.0-16.6%) and 8.1% (7.5-8.8%), respectively. Among 67 706 ESLD Medicaid patients, 3-year incidences of waitlisting and transplantation were 10.0% (9.7-10.4%) and 6.7% (6.5-7.0%), respectively. In HealthCore, the absolute ranges in states' waitlist mortality and transplant rates were larger than corresponding ranges among all ESLD patients (waitlist mortality: 13.6-38.5%, ESLD 3-year mortality: 48.9-62.0%; waitlist transplant rates: 36.3-72.7%, ESLD transplant rates: 4.8-13.4%). States' waitlist mortality and ESLD population mortality were not positively correlated: ρ = -0.06, p-value = 0.83 (HealthCore); ρ = -0.87, p-value = 0.05 (Medicaid). Waitlist and ESLD transplant rates were weakly positively correlated in Medicaid (ρ = 0.36, p-value = 0.55) but were positively correlated in HealthCore (ρ = 0.73, p-value = 0.001). Compared to population-based metrics, waitlist-based metrics overestimate geographic disparities in access to liver transplantation.

Calcineurin Inhibitor Minimization, Conversion, Withdrawal, and Avoidance Strategies in Renal Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Despite their clinical efficacy, concerns about calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) toxicity make alternative regimens that reduce CNI exposure attractive for renal transplant recipients. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed four CNI immunosuppression strategies (minimization, conversion, withdrawal, and avoidance) designed to reduce CNI exposure and assessed the impact of each on patient and allograft survival, acute rejection and renal function. We evaluated 92 comparisons from 88 randomized controlled trials and found moderate- to high-strength evidence suggesting that minimization strategies result in better clinical outcomes compared with standard-dose regimens; moderate-strength evidence indicating that conversion to a mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor or belatacept was associated with improved renal function but increased rejection risk; and moderate- to high-strength evidence suggesting planned CNI withdrawal could result in improved renal function despite an association with increased rejection risk. The evidence base for avoidance studies was insufficient to draw meaningful conclusions. The applicability of the review is limited by the large number of studies examining cyclosporine-based strategies and low-risk populations. Additional research is needed with tacrolimus-based regimens and higher risk populations. Moreover, research is necessary to clarify the effect of induction and adjunctive agents in alternative immunosuppression strategies and should include more comprehensive and consistent reporting of patient-centered outcomes.

Donor Hemodynamics as a Predictor of Outcomes After Kidney Transplantation From Donors After Cardiac Death.

Donation after cardiac death is an important source of transplantable organs, but evidence suggests donor warm ischemia contributes to inferior outcomes. Attempts to predict recipient outcome using donor hemodynamic measurements have not yielded statistically significant results. We evaluated novel measures of donor hemodynamics as predictors of delayed graft function and graft failure in a cohort of 1050 kidneys from 566 donors. Hemodynamics were described using regression line slopes, areas under the curve, and time beyond thresholds for systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation, and shock index (heart rate divided by systolic blood pressure). A logistic generalized estimation equation model showed that area under the curve for systolic blood pressure was predictive of delayed graft function (above median: odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.90). Multivariable Cox regression demonstrated that slope of oxygen saturation during the first 10 minutes after extubation was associated with graft failure (below median: hazard ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.03-1.64), with 5-year graft survival of 70.0% (95%CI 64.5%-74.8%) for donors above the median versus 61.4% (95%CI 55.5%-66.7%) for those below the median. Among older donors, increased shock index slope was associated with increased hazard of graft failure. Validation of these findings is necessary to determine the utility of characterizing donor warm ischemia to predict recipient outcome.

Comparison of listing strategies for allosensitized heart transplant candidates requiring transplant at high urgency: a decision model analysis.

Allosensitized children who require a negative prospective crossmatch have a high risk of death awaiting heart transplantation. Accepting the first suitable organ offer, regardless of the possibility of a positive crossmatch, would improve waitlist outcomes but it is unclear whether it would result in improved survival at all times after listing, including posttransplant. We created a Markov decision model to compare survival after listing with a requirement for a negative prospective donor cell crossmatch (WAIT) versus acceptance of the first suitable offer (TAKE). Model parameters were derived from registry data on status 1A (highest urgency) pediatric heart transplant listings. We assumed no possibility of a positive crossmatch in the WAIT strategy and a base-case probability of a positive crossmatch in the TAKE strategy of 47%, as estimated from cohort data. Under base-case assumptions, TAKE showed an incremental survival benefit of 1.4 years over WAIT. In multiple sensitivity analyses, including variation of the probability of a positive crossmatch from 10% to 100%, TAKE was consistently favored. While model input data were less well suited to comparing survival when awaiting transplantation across a negative virtual crossmatch, our analysis suggests that taking the first suitable organ offer under these circumstances is also favored.

Survival benefit of repeat liver transplantation in the United States: a serial MELD analysis by hepatitis C status and donor risk index.

Survival benefit (SB) for first liver transplantation (LT) is favorable at Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)≥15. Herein, we identify the MELD threshold for SB from repeat liver transplantation (ReLT) by recipient hepatitis C virus (HCV) status and donor risk index (DRI). We analyzed lab MELD scores in new United Network for Organ Sharing registrants for ReLT from March 2002 to January 2010. Risk of ReLT graft failure≤1 year versus waitlist mortality was calculated using Cox regression, adjusting for recipient characteristics. Of 3057 ReLT candidates, 54% had HCV and 606 died while listed. There were 1985 ReLT recipients, 52% had HCV and 567 ReLT graft failures by 1 year. Unadjusted waitlist mortality and post-ReLT graft failure rates were 416 (95% confidence interval [CI] 384-450) and 375 (95% CI 345-407) per 1000 patient-years, respectively. Waitlist mortality was higher with increasing waitlist MELD (p<0.001). The MELD for SB from ReLT overall was 21 (21 in non-HCV and 24 in HCV patients). MELD for SB varied by DRI in HCV patients (MELD 21, 24 and 27 for low, medium and high DRI, respectively) but did not vary for non-HCV patients. Compared to first LT, ReLT requires a higher MELD threshold to achieve an SB resulting in a narrower therapeutic window to optimize the utility of scarce liver grafts.

Mortality and cardiovascular disease among older live kidney donors.

Over the past two decades, live kidney donation by older individuals (≥55 years) has become more common. Given the strong associations of older age with cardiovascular disease (CVD), nephrectomy could make older donors vulnerable to death and cardiovascular events. We performed a cohort study among older live kidney donors who were matched to healthy older individuals in the Health and Retirement Study. The primary outcome was mortality ascertained through national death registries. Secondary outcomes ascertained among pairs with Medicare coverage included death or CVD ascertained through Medicare claims data. During the period from 1996 to 2006, there were 5717 older donors in the United States. We matched 3368 donors 1:1 to older healthy nondonors. Among donors and matched pairs, the mean age was 59 years; 41% were male and 7% were black race. In median follow-up of 7.8 years, mortality was not different between donors and matched pairs (p = 0.21). Among donors with Medicare, the combined outcome of death/CVD (p = 0.70) was also not different between donors and nondonors. In summary, carefully selected older kidney donors do not face a higher risk of death or CVD. These findings should be provided to older individuals considering live kidney donation.