Maternal and perinatal health indicators in Brazil over a decade: assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination through interrupted time series analysis.

Background: Few studies have evaluated the effects of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, on maternal and perinatal health at a populational level. We investigated maternal and perinatal health indicators in Brazil, focusing on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign for pregnant women. Methods: Utilizing interrupted time series analysis (January 2013-December 2022), we examined Maternal Mortality Ratio, Perinatal Mortality Rate, Preterm Birth Rate, Cesarean Section Rate, and other five indicators. Interruptions occurred at the pandemic's onset (March 2020) and pregnant women's vaccination (July 2021). Results were expressed as percent changes on time series' level and slope. Findings: The COVID-19 onset led to immediate spikes in Maternal Mortality Ratio (33.37%) and Perinatal Mortality Rate (3.20%) (p < 0.05). From March 2020 to December 2022, Cesarean Section and Preterm Birth Rates exhibited upward trends, growing monthly at 0.13% and 0.23%, respectively (p < 0.05). Post start of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (July 2021), Maternal Mortality Ratio (-34.10%) and Cesarean Section Rate (-1.87%) promptly declined (p < 0.05). Subsequently, we observed a monthly decrease of Maternal Mortality Ratio (-9.43%) and increase of Cesarean Section Rate (0.25%) (p < 0.05), while Perinatal Mortality Rate and Preterm Birth Rate showed a stationary pattern. Interpretation: The pandemic worsened all analyzed health indicators. Despite improvements in Maternal Mortality Ratio, following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign for pregnant women, the other indicators continued to sustain altered patterns from the pre-pandemic period. Funding: No funding.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the services provided by the Peruvian health system: an analysis of people with chronic diseases.

During the pandemic, many individuals with chronic or infectious diseases other than COVID-19 were unable to receive the care they needed due to the high demand for respiratory care. Our study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on services provided to people with chronic diseases in Peru from 2016 to 2022. We performed a secondary database analysis of data registered by the comprehensive health insurance (SIS), the intangible solidarity health fund (FISSAL), and private healthcare institutions (EPS), using interrupted time series analysis. Our study identified 21,281,128 individual users who received care. The pooled analysis revealed an average decrease of 1,782,446 in the number of users receiving care in the first month of the pandemic compared with the expected values for that month based on pre-pandemic measurements. In addition, during the pandemic months, there was an average increase of 57,911 in the number of new additional single users who received care per month compared with the previous month. According to the time-series analysis of users receiving care per month based on each chronic disease group, the most significant decreases included people with diabetes without complications and chronic lung disease.

Impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis notifications

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the control of diseases by overwhelming healthcare systems, and tuberculosis (TB) notifications may have been affected. This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on TB notifications in the Sao Paulo State. This is a retrospective study examining TB notifications extracted from the TBweb database (Jan 2015 to Dec 2022). We conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of TB notifications using the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic as the interrupting event (Bayesian causal impact analysis). A total of 177,103 notifications of TB incident cases were analyzed, revealing a significant decrease in 2020 (13%) and in 2021 (9%), which lost significance in 2022. However, changes were not associated with population density or the area of the regions. Future analyses of the effects of TB underdiagnosis might help describe the impact of underreporting on future TB incidence and mortality.

Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: time series analysis between 2001 and 2021 and projection until 2030 / Incidência de tuberculose no Brasil: análise de série temporal entre 2001 e 2021 e projeção até 2030

ABSTRACT Objective: To assess the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2001 and 2022 and estimate the monthly incidence forecast until 2030. Methods: This is a time-series study based on monthly tuberculosis records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and official projections of the Brazilian population. The monthly incidence of tuberculosis from 2001 to 2022 was evaluated using segmented linear regression to identify trend breaks. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) was used to predict the monthly incidence from 2023 to 2030, deadline for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Results: There was a decrease in incidence between January/2001 and December/2014 (4.60 to 3.19 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants; β=-0.005; p<0.001), followed by an increase between January/2015 and March /2020 (β=0.013; p<0.001). There was a sharp drop in cases in April/2020, with the onset of the pandemic, and acceleration of the increase in cases since then (β=0.025; p<0.001). A projection of 124,245 cases in 2030 was made, with an estimated incidence of 4.64 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants, levels similar to those in the 2000s. The Sarima model proved to be robust, with error of 4.1% when removing the pandemic period. Conclusion: The decreasing trend in tuberculosis cases was reversed from 2015 onwards, a period of economic crisis, and was also impacted by the pandemic when there was a reduction in records. The Sarima model can be a useful forecasting tool for epidemiological surveillance. Greater investments in prevention and control need to be made to reduce the occurrence of tuberculosis, in line with the SDGs.

RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar a incidência de tuberculose no Brasil entre 2001 e 2022 e estimar a previsão de incidência mensal até 2030. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo de série temporal que partiu de registros mensais de tuberculose do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e projeções oficiais da população brasileira. Avaliou-se a incidência mensal de tuberculose entre 2001 e 2022 por meio de regressão linear segmentada para identificar quebras de tendências. Utilizou-se o modelo autorregressivo integrado de médias móveis sazonais (Sarima) para prever a incidência mensal de 2023 a 2030, prazo para alcançar os objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável (ODS). Resultados: Observou-se diminuição da incidência entre janeiro/2001 e dezembro/2014 (de 4,60 para 3,19 casos-mês/100 mil habitantes; β=-0,005; p<0,001), seguida de aumento entre janeiro/2015 e março/2020 (β=0,013; p<0,001). Houve queda abrupta de casos em abril/2020, com início da pandemia e aceleração do aumento de casos desde então (β=0,025; p<0,001). Projetaram-se 124.245 casos de tuberculose em 2030, com incidência estimada em 4,64 casos-mês/100 mil habitantes, patamares da década de 2000. O modelo Sarima mostrou-se robusto, com erro de 4,1% ao remover o período pandêmico. Conclusão: A tendência decrescente nos casos de tuberculose foi revertida a partir de 2015, período de crises econômicas, e foi também impactada pela pandemia quando houve redução nos registros. O modelo Sarima pode ser uma ferramenta de previsão útil para a vigilância epidemiológica. Maiores investimentos na prevenção e controle precisam ser aportados para reduzir a ocorrência de tuberculose, em linha com os ODS.

Provision of community mental health care before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: A time series analysis in Peru.

BACKGROUND: A consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic was that the provision of mental health services was reduced in several countries around the world, while the demand for mental health services increased. AIMS: Our study aims to determine any variation in the number of users served, health appointments, and care activities conducted at 58 Peruvian community mental health centers (CMHCs) between March 2019 and October 2021. METHODS: Our study used an observational design and analyzed information from the care provided in CMHCs. We evaluate the number of users served, health appointments, and care activities performed per month. The main statistical analysis used segmented regression with Newey-West standard errors, taking into account each month of the evaluation. RESULTS: We had 988,456 unique users during the period evaluated. Regarding diagnoses, 7.4% (n = 72,818) had a severe mental problem, 39.4% (n = 389,330) a common mental problem, and 53.2% (n = 526,308) others health problems. The study found a reduction in the number of users served and health care appointments at the 58 CMHCs in March 2020, the month in which the closure measures were declared to reduce COVID-19 infections in Peru. This reduction was followed by an upward trend in the three variables during the pandemic in the 58 CMHCs studied. In, November 2020, 9 months after the pandemic started, the deficit in the average number of users served per month was recovered. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that CMHCs in the Peruvian system were able to regain care capacity approximately 1 year after the pandemic. In addition, we discuss the efforts made to respond to mental health needs in the context of a global health crisis.

Social inequalities in the temporal trend of mortality from sickle cell disease in Brazil, 1996-2019 / Desigualdades sociais na tendência temporal de mortalidade por doença falciforme no Brasil, 1996-2019 / Desigualdades sociales en la tendencia temporal de la mortalidad por enfermedad de células falciformes en Brasil, 1996-2019

Contrary to international trends, the mortality rate of sickle cell disease increased in Brazil after the implementation of the neonatal screening program, probably due to improving access to diagnosis. This study aimed to assess differences in the temporal trend of the mortality rate and median age at death from sickle cell disease in Brazil, considering implemented measures to expand diagnosis, and improve health care access in-country and in the international scenario. Time series were extracted from the Brazilian Mortality Information System from 1996 to 2019. Changes in the mortality rate and median age at death were verified via segmented regression models, which were stratified by sex, region of residence, and age. Most deaths occurred in non-white people, young adults, and the Southeast and Northeast population. Sickle cell disease mortality rate increased until 2010 (13.31%; 95%CI: 6.37; 20.70), particularly in individuals aged 30 years or more (12.78%; 95%CI: 2.98; 23.53) and in the Northeast (12.27%; 95%CI: 8.92; 15.72). Most deaths occurred in the second decade of life (3.01 deaths/million), with a 59% increase in the median age of death in Brazil, from 27.6 to 30.3 years, more pronounced in females and the North Region. The observed gain in the survival of sickle cell disease in Brazil is still much lower than in developed countries and presents regional disparities, probably due to the lack of access to health care and recent treatments, such as hydroxyurea, still restricted to hematological referral centers in Brazilian capitals.

Ao contrário dos estudos internacionais, houve um aumento da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme no Brasil após a implantação do programa de triagem neonatal, provavelmente devido à melhoria do acesso ao diagnóstico. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar as diferenças na tendência temporal da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme e idade mediana ao morrer no Brasil, considerando as medidas implementadas para ampliar o diagnóstico e melhorar o acesso à saúde no país e no cenário internacional. As séries temporais foram extraídas do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade de 1996 a 2019. Mudanças na magnitude da taxa de mortalidade e na idade mediana ao morrer foram verificadas via modelos de regressão segmentada, estratificados por sexo, região de residência e idade. A maioria dos óbitos ocorreu entre jovens, pretos ou pardos, e habitantes das regiões Sudeste e Nordeste. Houve um aumento da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme até 2010 (13,31%; IC95%: 6,37; 20,70), especialmente em indivíduos com 30 anos ou mais (12,78%; IC95%: 2,98; 23,53) e habitantes do Nordeste (12,27%; IC95%: 8,92; 15,72). A maioria dos óbitos ocorreu durante a segunda década de vida (3,01 óbitos/milhão), com um aumento de 59% na idade mediana ao morrer no Brasil (de 27,6 para 30,3 anos), mais acentuada entre mulheres e na Região Norte. O aumento observado na sobrevivência da doença falciforme no Brasil ainda é muito menor do que em países desenvolvidos e com disparidades regionais, provavelmente pela falta de acesso aos serviços de saúde e aos tratamentos recentes, como a hidroxiureia, que ainda é restrita aos centros de referência hematológicos das capitais brasileiras.

A diferencia de los estudios internacionales, en Brasil se produjo un aumento de la tasa de mortalidad por enfermedad de células falciformes tras la implantación del programa de tamizaje neonatal, probablemente debido a la mejora del acceso al diagnóstico. El objetivo del estudio es determinar las diferencias en la tendencia temporal de la tasa de mortalidad y la edad media de muerte por enfermedad de células falciformes en Brasil, teniendo en cuenta las medidas implementadas para ampliar el diagnóstico y mejorar el acceso a la atención sanitaria en el país y en el escenario internacional. Las series temporales fueron extraídas del Sistema de Información sobre de Mortalidad de 1996 a 2019. Los cambios en la magnitud de la tasa de mortalidad y la edad media de la muerte se identificaron con modelos de regresión segmentados, estratificados por sexo, región de residencia y edad. La mayoría de las muertes ocurrieron en personas de color, adultos jóvenes y los habitantes del sureste y noreste. Hubo un aumento de la tasa de mortalidad por enfermedad de células falciformes hasta 2010 (13,31%; IC95%: 6,37; 20,70), sobre todo en individuos de 30 años o más (12,78%; IC95%: 2,98; 23,53) y en el Noreste (12,27%; IC95%: 8,92; 15,72). La mayoría de las muertes ocurrió en la segunda década de la vida (3,01 muertes/millón), con un aumento del 59% en la edad media de muerte en Brasil, de 27,6 a 30,3 años, más pronunciado en las mujeres y en el Norte. La ganancia observada en la supervivencia de la enfermedad de células falciformes en Brasil es todavía muy inferior a la de los países desarrollados y con disparidades regionales, probablemente debido a la falta de acceso a la asistencia sanitaria y a los tratamientos recientes, como la hidroxiurea, todavía restringidos a los centros de referencia hematológica de las capitales brasileñas.

Efeitos da pandemia de COVID-19 nos serviços odontológicos da atenção primária no Maranhão, Brasil / Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on dental services in primary care in Maranhão, Brazil

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é analisar indicadores de uso de serviços de saúde bucal da atenção primária à saúde no Maranhão antes e durante a pandemia de COVID-19. Estudo ecológico de série temporal interrompida cuja unidade de análise foi o Maranhão. A exposição foi a pandemia de COVID-19, dicotomizada em pré e pandemia. Os desfechos foram calculados pela razão da quantidade de procedimentos preventivos (RPP), de urgência (RPU) e procedimentos curativos (RPC), e a projeção censitária da população do estado, multiplicada por mil, mensalmente. Os dados foram coletados do Sistema de Informação em Saúde para a Atenção Básica e do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, no período de 2015.1 a 2022.2. As análises foram realizadas por meio do modelo autorregressivo, integrado e de médias móveis com sazonalidade. Houve tendência crescente dos três indicadores até jan./2019. A pandemia causou redução significativa na RPP (Xreg = -6,55; p-valor = 0,0008) e na RPC (Xreg = -4,74; p-valor = 0,0005), mas não influenciou a RPU (Xreg = -0,03; p-valor = 0,12) desde o primeiro semestre de 2020, persistindo até o segundo semestre de 2022. A pandemia de COVID-19 provocou redução nos serviços preventivos e curativos de saúde bucal no Maranhão.

Abstract This article aims to analyze indicators of the utilization of oral health services (UOHS) in primary health care in the state of Maranhão, Brazil, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted an ecological time series study. The unit of analysis was the state of Maranhão, and the exposure variable was the COVID-19 pandemic, dichotomized into pre-pandemic and pandemic. The outcome variables were the monthly rates per 1,000 population of three UOHS indicators: rate of preventive procedures (RPP-PHC); rate of urgent procedures (RUP-PHC), and rate of curative procedures (RCP-PHC). The data were collected from the Primary Health Care Information System (SISAB) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the period from 2015-2022. The analyses were performed using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The three indicators showed an upward trend up to January 2019. The pandemic caused a significant reduction in the RPP (Xreg = -6.55; p-value = 0.0008) and RCP (Xreg = -4.74; p-value = 0.0005), starting in the first semester of 2020 and continuing into the second semester of 2022, but did not influence the RUP (Xreg = -0.03; p-value = 0.12). The COVID-19 pandemic caused a reduction in preventive and curative oral health services in Maranhão.

The effect of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions on COVID-19 transmission across three cities in Colombia.

Governments across the globe have implemented different strategies to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. A national mandatory quarantine was the most applied policy tool. While there are studies that tested the effectiveness of a national mandatory quarantine, the question about the effectiveness of additional quarantine policies is not yet answered. In this study we focus on three large cities in Colombia (Bogota, Medellin and Cali) with similar socio-economic conditions but made use of different COVID-19 prevention measures. We examine whether different non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs) conducted in these three cities are effective against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We inspect the effect of the quarantine policies restricting exit from home by sex, ID number, whereby only Bogota implemented the restriction to leave the home according to sex followed by a restriction according to ID number, and Medellin and Cali implemented a restriction by ID number only. Data for the analysis are obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics of Colombia [Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE)]. The data on pandemic severity is measured by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per city. We conduct single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine differences in the extent of the pandemic severity in Bogota, Medellin and Cali. We found that NPIs in all three Colombian cities had a positive effect on slowing the spread of the pandemic.

Impact of COVID-19 on Tuberculosis Indicators in Brazil: A Time Series and Spatial Analysis Study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to visualize and classify the time series of COVID-19, tuberculosis (TB) notification, and TB outcomes (cure, treatment abandonment, and death), verify the impact of the new coronavirus pandemic on these indices in Brazil, and verify the presence of spatial autocorrelation between COVID-19 and TB. METHODS: This was an ecological time series study that considered TB and COVID-19 cases. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) was used to trace the temporal trend, Prais-Winsten was used to classify the temporal trend, Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to verify the impact of COVID-19 on TB rates, and the Bivariate Moran Index (Global and Local) was used to verify the spatial autocorrelation of events. RESULTS: Brazil and its macro-regions showed an increasing temporal trend for the notification of TB in the pre-pandemic period. Only the Northeast Region showed a decreasing temporal trend for cured cases. For treatment abandonment, all regions except for the Northeast showed an increasing temporal trend, and regarding death, Brazil and the Northeast Region showed an increasing temporal trend. With the ITS, COVID-19 caused a decline in TB notification rates and TB outcome rates. With the global spatial analysis, it was possible to identify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the notification rate of COVID-19 and the TB notification rate and deaths. With the local analysis, it was possible to map the Brazilian municipalities and classify them according to the relationship between the rates of both diseases and space. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 influenced the follow-up of and adherence to TB treatment and intensified social vulnerability and, consequently, affected the notification of TB since the relationship between the disease and social determinants of health is already known. The restoration and strengthening of essential services for the prevention and detection of cases and treatment of TB in endemic environments such as Brazil have been oriented as a priority in the global health agenda.

Impact of emerging virus pandemics on cause-specific maternal mortality time series: a population-based natural experiment using national vital statistics, Argentina 1980-2017.

Background: Emerging pandemic viruses may have multiple deleterious effects on maternal health. This study examines the effects of a pandemic influenza virus on cause-specific maternal mortality time series, using Argentinian vital statistics. Methods: We conducted a population-based natural experiment from national vital records of maternal deaths between 1980 and 2017. Joinpoint regression models were used to model time series of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR). The sensitivity of the registry to detect the effects of the pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus on cause-specific MMR was analysed using a panel of parallel interrupted time series (ITS). Findings: Over this 38-year study, the MMR decreased by 58·6% (69·5 to 28·8 deaths/100,000 live births), transitioning from direct obstetric causes (67·0 to 21·1/100,000 live births; 68·4% decrease) to indirect causes (2·6 to 7·7/100,000 live births; 196·2% increase). The regression analysis showed an average reduction of -2·2%/year (95% CI: -2·9 to -1·4) with 2 join points in the total trend (1998 and 2009). Parallel ITS analyses revealed the pandemic H1N1 virus had an increasing effect on mortality from the respiratory system- and sepsis-related complications (level change 4·7 and 1·6/100,000 live births respectively), reversing after the outbreak. No effect was found on MMR from hypertensive disorders, haemorrhage, abortive outcomes, other direct obstetric causes, and indirect non-respiratory comorbidities. Interpretation: The Argentinian maternal death registry appears sensitive to detect different effects of emerging infectious epidemics on maternal health. In a population-based natural experiment, pandemic H1N1 virus impacted maternal mortality almost exclusively from the respiratory system- and sepsis-related complications. Funding: Supported by FISAR www.fisarchile.org.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of dengue fever in Peru.

Dengue virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 coexist in dengue-endemic countries; therefore, the adoption of preventive measures is essential to control the spread of both viruses. We conducted an ecological study to compare the temporal patterns of the incidence of dengue before and during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Peru. A time-series analysis comparing the incidence of dengue using a Student's t test with variance correction was performed. Poisson regression was applied to determine the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of dengue before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The incidence of dengue was found to be increased in all endemic regions of Peru during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the highest incidences registered in Ica (IRR = 90.14), Huánuco (IRR = 38.6), and Ucayali (IRR = 23.78), with the exception of Piura (IRR = 0.83). The highest increases in the number of dengue cases per million inhabitants were in Ucayali (393.38), Tumbes (233.19), Ica (166.08), and Loreto (129.93). The gradient of dengue cases was positive in all endemic regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of dengue cases per million increased during the COVID-19 pandemic throughout Peru and in several endemic regions, with the exception of Piura.

Evaluation of mobile emergency service with the use of mixed method / Avaliação do serviço móvel de urgência com o uso de método misto / Evaluación de la atención móvil de urgencias con el uso del método mixto

This is an evaluative study, with sequential explanatory mixed methods, aimed at evaluating the performance of the Brazilian Mobile Emergency Medical Service (SAMU) in the Grande ABC region, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. In the quantitative approach, an analysis of interrupted time series was performed to evaluate the immediate and gradual effects of the SAMU on hospital mortality due to acute myocardial infarction. The qualitative approach was conducted via semi-structured interviews and a thematic analysis was applied for the interpretation of the results, exploring the attitudes and values of the interviewees regarding the performance of SAMU in the Grande ABC region. Interrupted time series analysis showed a -0.04% reduction in the underlying mortality rate since SAMU implementation (95%CI: -0.0816; -0.0162; p-value = 0.0040) and a reduction in the mortality level, -2.89 (95%CI: -4.3293; -1.4623; p-value = 0.0001), both with statistical significance. To improve the robustness of the results, a control region was used, showing a statistically significant difference in the post-intervention result of -0.0639 (95%CI: -0.1060; -0.0219; p-value = 0.0001). The interviews revealed that the SAMU has the potential to intervene in the prognosis of transported cases, however, challenges related to the availability of beds, expansion of telemedicine, and continuous training of professionals for qualified emergency care in the event of a heart attack must be overcome. The results indicate that the studied intervention is part of a set of factors that, together, generate more conditions to achieve a better result.

Estudo avaliativo com uso de métodos mistos na tipologia explanatória sequencial cujo objetivo foi avaliar o desempenho do Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência (SAMU) na região do Grande ABC, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Na abordagem quantitativa, foi realizada análise de séries temporais interrompidas para testar os efeitos imediatos e graduais da intervenção sobre a mortalidade hospitalar por infarto agudo do miocárdio. A abordagem qualitativa foi realizada através de entrevistas semi-estruturadas, e a análise temática foi aplicada para a interpretação dos resultados, explorando as atitudes e valores dos entrevistados em relação ao desempenho do SAMU no Grande ABC. A análise de série temporal interrompida mostrou uma redução de -0,04% na taxa de mortalidade subjacente desde a implementação do SAMU (IC95%: -0,0816; -0,0162; p = 0,0040) e uma redução no nível de mortalidade, de -2,89 (IC95%: -4,3293; -1,4623; p = 0,0001), ambas estatisticamente significativas. Para melhorar a robustez dos resultados, foi utilizada uma região de controle, o que mostrou uma diferença estatisticamente significativa na tendência pós-intervenção de -0,0639 (IC95%: -0,1060; -0,0219; p = 0,0001). De acordo com as entrevistas, o SAMU tem o potencial de intervir no prognóstico dos pacientes transportados; entretanto, em casos de infarto agudo do miocárdio, diversos desafios precisam ser superados, relacionados à disponibilidade de leitos, expansão da telemedicina e capacitação permanente das equipes de atendimento qualificado em emergências. Os resultados indicam que a intervenção faz parte de um conjunto de fatores que, conjuntamente, geram mais condições para alcançar melhores resultados.

Investigación evaluativa, utilizando métodos mixtos explicativos secuenciales, cuyo objetivo fue evaluar el desempeño del Servicio de Atención Móvil de Urgencia (SAMU) en una región de Brasil, denominada Grande ABC, estado de São Paulo, Brasil. En el enfoque cuantitativo, se realizó un análisis de series temporales interrumpidas para comprobar los efectos inmediatos y graduales de la intervención sobre la mortalidad intrahospitalaria por infarto agudo de miocardio. El enfoque cualitativo se llevó a cabo a través de entrevistas semiestructuradas y para la interpretación de los resultados se aplicó un análisis temático, investigando las actitudes y valores de los entrevistados sobre el desempeño del SAMU en la región Grande ABC. Los análisis de series de tiempo interrumpido mostraron una reducción -0,04% en la tasa de mortalidad subyacente desde la implementación del SAMU (IC95%: -0,0816; -0,0162; p = 0,0040) y una reducción en el nivel de mortalidad, -2,89 (IC95%: -4,3293; -1,4623; p = 0,0001), ambos con significación estadística. Con el fin de mejorar la solidez de los resultados, se utilizó un control de región, que mostró una diferencia estadísticamente significativa en la tendencia del resultado post intervención de -0,0639 (IC95%: -0,1060; -0,0219; p = 0,0001). Las entrevistas revelaron que el SAMU tiene el potencial de intervenir en la prognosis de los casos trasportados, sin embargo, deben superarse los desafíos relacionados con la disponibilidad de camas, expansión de la telemedicina y el entrenamiento continuo de profesionales para la asistencia cualificada en emergencias, en caso de un ataque al corazón. Los resultados indican que la intervención estudiada es parte de un conjunto de condiciones que, juntas, generan más condiciones para alcanzar un mejor resultado.

Effects of the economic recession on suicide mortality in Brazil: interrupted time series analysis / Efectos de la recesión económica en la mortalidad por suicidio en Brasil: análisis de series de tiempo interrumpido / Efeitos da recessão econômica na mortalidade por suicídio no Brasil: análise com séries temporais interrompidas

ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze trends in suicide rates in Brazil in the period before and after the start of the economic recession. Methods: interrupted time series research using national suicide data recorded in the period between 2012 and 2017 with socioeconomic subgroups analyses. Quasi-Poisson regression model was employed to analyze trends in seasonally adjusted data. Results: there was an abrupt increase in the risk of suicide after economic recession in the population with less education (12.5%; RR = 1.125; 95%CI: 1.027; 1.232) and in the South Region (17.7%; 1.044; 1.328). After an abrupt reduction, there was a progressive increase in risk for the black and brown population and for those with higher education. In most other population strata, there was a progressive increase in the risk of suicide. Conclusions: the Brazilian economic recession caused different effects on suicide rates, considering social strata, which requires health strategies and policies that are sensitive to the most vulnerable populations.

RESUMEN Objetivos: analizar tendencias de tasas de suicidio en Brasil, antes y después del inicio de la recesión económica. Métodos: estudio de series de tiempo interrumpido utilizando datos nacionales de suicidio registrados entre 2012 y 2017 con análisis por subgrupos socioeconómicos. Modelo de regresión quasi-Poisson empleado para analizar tendencias de datos ajustados estacionalmente. Resultados: observado aumento abrupto en el riesgo de suicidio pos recesión económica en la población con menor escolaridad (12,5%; RR = 1,125; IC95%:1,027; 1,232) y en la Región Sur (17,7%; 1,044; 1,328). Pos reducción abrupta, ocurrió aumento progresivo en el riesgo para la población de negros y pardos y de mayor escolaridad. En la mayoría de los demás estratos poblacionales, verificado aumento progresivo en el riesgo de suicidio. Conclusiones: la recesión económica brasileña produzco efectos diferentes en las tasas de suicidio, considerando los estratos sociales, lo que demanda estrategias de salud y políticas sensibles a poblaciones más vulnerables.

RESUMO Objetivos: analisar as tendências nas taxas de suicídio no Brasil, no período antes e depois do início da recessão econômica. Métodos: estudo de séries temporais interrompidas utilizando dados nacionais de suicídio registrados no período entre 2012 e 2017 com análises por subgrupos socioeconômicos. Modelo de regressão quasi-Poisson foi empregado para analisar as tendências dos dados ajustados sazonalmente. Resultados: observou-se aumento abrupto no risco de suicídio após recessão econômica na população com menor escolaridade (12,5%; RR = 1,125; IC95%:1,027; 1,232) e na Região Sul (17,7%; 1,044; 1,328). Após redução abrupta, ocorreu aumento progressivo no risco para a população de pretos e pardos e na de maior escolaridade. Na maioria dos demais estratos populacionais, verificou-se aumento progressivo no risco de suicídio. Conclusões: a recessão econômica brasileira produziu efeitos diferentes nas taxas de suicídio, considerando os estratos sociais, o que demanda estratégias de saúde e políticas sensíveis às populações mais vulneráveis.

Temporal trend of accidents due to percutaneous exposure in a public hospital in Brazil, 2007-2019 / Tendencia temporal de los accidentes por exposición percutánea en un hospital público en Brasil, 2007-2019 / Tendência temporal dos acidentes por exposição percutânea em um hospital público no Brasil, 2007-2019

ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze the temporal trend of accidents due to percutaneous exposure in a public hospital in Brazil, between 2007 and 2019, according to sociodemographic and professional characteristics. Methods: analysis of time series of accidents due to percutaneous exposure that occurred in health workers. Sociodemographic and professional variables, accident profile, post-accident behavior and accident incidence rates were evaluated. The Prais Winsten regression was used for trend analysis and calculation of the annual percentage change, with a significance level of 5%. Results: 761 occupational accidents were recorded. There was a downward trend in the rate of percutaneous injuries among female workers (-0.012%; p=0.009), who had secondary education (-0.011%; p=0.035) and among all health professional categories (-0.010%; p =0.019). There was an increasing trend (0.018%; p= 0.050) among workers with ≥ 61 months of professional experience. Conclusions: the analysis showed a decreasing incidence of percutaneous accidents, which can be explained by multiple factors.

RESUMEN Objetivos: analizar tendencia temporal de accidentes por exposición percutánea en un hospital público brasileño, entre 2007 y 2019, segundo características sociodemográficas y profesionales. Métodos: análisis de series temporales de los accidentes por exposición percutánea ocurridos en trabajadores de salud. Fueron evaluadas las variables sociodemográficas, profesionales, perfil de los accidentes, conductas post-accidentes y tasas de incidencia de los accidentes. La regresión de Prais-Winsten fue empleada para análisis de tendencia y cálculo de la variación porcentual anual, con nivel de significación de 5%. Resultados: fueron registrados 761 accidentes ocupacionales. Hubo tendencia decreciente de la tasa de accidente percutáneo en trabajadores del sexo femenino (-0,012%; p=0,009), que poseían enseñanza media (-0,011%; p=0,035) y entre todas categorías profesionales de salud (-0,010%; p=0,019). Observado tendencia creciente (0,018%; p= 0,050) entre trabajadores con tiempo ≥ 61 meses de experiencia profesional. Conclusiones: el análisis evidenció incidencia decreciente de accidentes percutáneos, que puede ser explicada por múltiples factores.

RESUMO Objetivos: analisar a tendência temporal dos acidentes por exposição percutânea em um hospital público no Brasil, entre 2007 e 2019, segundo características sociodemográficas e profissionais. Métodos: análise de séries temporais dos acidentes por exposição percutânea ocorridos em trabalhadores de saúde. Foram avaliadas as variáveis sociodemográficas, profissionais, perfil dos acidentes, condutas pós-acidentes e as taxas de incidência dos acidentes. A regressão de Prais Winsten foi empregada para análise de tendência e cálculo da variação percentual anual, com nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: foram registrados 761 acidentes ocupacionais. Houve tendência decrescente da taxa de acidente percutâneo nos trabalhadores do sexo feminino (-0,012%; p=0,009), que possuíam ensino médio (-0,011%; p=0,035) e entre todas as categorias profissionais de saúde (-0,010%; p=0,019). Observou-se tendência crescente (0,018%; p= 0,050) entre trabalhadores com tempo ≥ 61 meses de experiência profissional. Conclusões: a análise evidenciou incidência decrescente de acidentes percutâneos, que pode ser explicada por múltiplos fatores.

Assessing the impact of the 2008 health reform in Ecuador on the performance of primary health care services: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2008, Ecuador started a national health reform based on the principles of Alma Ata to achieve Universal Health Coverage. While coverage indicators have increased, a systematic assessment of the impact of the reform on the delivery of health services at primary level is lacking. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the 2008 health reform on the performance of primary health care services in Ecuador. METHODS: Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSC) are a subset of diseases where hospital admission is potentially avoidable by high quality well-functioning primary care. Thus, observing the behaviour of ACSC hospitalizations can serve as an indicator of how the primary health care level is performing. Crude and adjusted rates, stratified by sex, were calculated from ten selected ACSC hospitalization discharges during 22 years of data representing 11 years before and after the health reform. An interrupted time series analysis was then conducted by applying a negative binomial regression and adjusting for overdispersion and autocorrelation. RESULTS: Overall higher crude and adjusted rates for ACSC hospitalizations were observed in women compared to men; both increased gradually since the start of the observation, reaching a peak around 2010, and then started a downwards trend. In men, the incidence rate ratio increased significantly by 3 % per year during the period before the intervention. During the first year after intervention, an increase (13 %) was detected, and then a statistically significant 1 % decrease (IRR = 0.99; 95 % CI: 0.98, 0.99) was observed in the ACSC rate ratio per year in the period after the intervention. Similar trends and effect sizes were found for women. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed significant decreasing trends of the ACSC hospitalization rates in both sexes, indicating an improvement of the performance of the primary health care services following the 2008 national health reform. A continuous strengthening of the primary care model as well as a regular monitoring of ACSC hospitalization rates in the country is recommended. A health economic evaluation considering hospitalizations avoided and associated costs is also advisable.

Impact of COVID-19 on immunization of Brazilian infants.

OBJECTIVE: To examine recent vaccination trends among Brazilian children during their first year of life, and the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on these trends. METHODS: Monthly vaccination and birth data from the DATASUS (Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System) database of the Ministry of Health of Brazil were obtained from January 2017 to December 2020. Interrupted time series analysis was used to compare vaccination trends before and after March 2020, when isolation measures were first implemented in Brazil. RESULTS: There was no strong evidence of a significant change in trends during the study period, or before and during the pandemic at national level. However, the mean number of vaccinations per child was 10.6, which is lower than the 13 doses expected under the immunization schedule. CONCLUSIONS: Although the pandemic did not appreciably impact on vaccinations, incomplete immunization among children aged <1 year in Brazil is cause for concern. A potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on specific antigens or regional and sociodemographic disparities in vaccinations cannot be ruled out without further research.

The Impact of an Inactivated Hepatitis A Vaccine with One Dose in Brazil: A Retrospective Time-Series.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, a recommended one-dose of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine was included in the Brazilian National Immunization Program targeting children 12-24 months. This decision addressed the low to intermediate endemicity status of hepatitis A across Brazil and the high rate of infection in children and adolescents between 5 and 19 years old. The aim of the study was to conduct a time-series analysis on hepatitis A incidence across age groups and to assess the hepatitis A distribution throughout Brazilian geographic regions. METHODS: An interrupted time-series analysis was performed to assess hepatitis A incidence rates before (2010-2013) and after (2015-2018) hepatitis A vaccine program implementation. The time-series analysis was stratified by age groups while a secondary analysis examined geographic distribution of hepatitis A cases. RESULTS: Overall incidence of hepatitis A decreased from 3.19/100.000 in the pre-vaccine period to 0.87/100.000 (p = 0.022) post-vaccine introduction. Incidence rate reduction was higher among children aged 1-4 years old, with an annual reduction of 67.6% in the post-vaccination period against a 7.7% annual reduction in the pre-vaccination period (p < 0.001). Between 2015 and 2018, the vaccination program prevented 14,468 hepatitis A cases. CONCLUSION: Our study highlighted the positive impact of a recommended one-dose inactivated hepatitis A vaccine for 1-4-years-old in controlling hepatitis A at national level.

Monitoramento e projeções das metas de fatores de risco e proteção para o enfrentamento das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nas capitais brasileiras / Monitoring and projection of targets for risk and protection factors for coping with noncommunicable diseases in Brazilian capitals

Resumo Monitorar as tendências e as projeções das metas de fatores de risco e proteção para o enfrentamento das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nas capitais brasileiras e verificar se a crise econômica e as políticas de austeridade interferiram no comportamento dessas metas. Estudo de série temporal com dados do Sistema de Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico. Foram analisadas as tendências das prevalências de fumantes, obesidade, prática de atividade física, consumo de frutas e hortaliças e de bebidas alcoólicas, e suas projeções até 2025. Empregou-se a regressão de Prais-Winsten. Utilizou-se a Série Temporal Interrompida de 2006 a 2014 e 2015 a 2019. Entre 2006 e 2014, houve redução de fumantes e aumento da obesidade, do consumo de frutas e hortaliças, de atividade física e do uso de álcool. A maioria dos indicadores demonstrou pior desempenho a partir de 2015. Pelas projeções, as metas de deter a obesidade e reduzir o uso de álcool não seriam atingidas. Houve mudanças no comportamento dos indicadores, o que reforça a importância do monitoramento contínuo, e da sustentabilidade das ações, políticas e programas de promoção a saúde e de controle dessas doenças e seus fatores de risco.

Abstract This study aimed to monitor the trends and projections of targets of risk and protection factors for coping with noncommunicable diseases in Brazilian capitals and verify whether the economic crisis and austerity policies have interfered with these targets' behavior. This is a time-series study with data from the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey. We analyzed the trends in the prevalence of tobacco use, obesity, physical activity, consumption of fruits and vegetables, and alcohol abuse, and their projections until 2025. The Prais-Winsten regression was employed. We adopted the Interrupted Time-Series, considering the 2006-2014 and 2015-2019 periods. A reduction in tobacco use, increase in obesity, consumption of fruits and vegetables, physical activity, and alcohol use was observed between 2006 and 2014. Most indicators have shown worse performance since 2015. Projections foresee that targets for curbing obesity and alcohol abuse will not be achieved. Some changes were identified in the indicators profiles, reinforcing the importance of the continuous monitoring and sustainability of actions, policies, and programs to promote health and control these diseases and their risk factors.

Impacto da Lei Seca sobre a mortalidade no trânsito nas unidades federativas do Brasil: uma análise de série temporal interrompida / Impact of the Dry Law on road traffic mortality in Brazilian states: an interrupted time series analysis

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar o impacto da Lei 11.705, conhecida por "Lei Seca" (LS-08), sobre a mortalidade por acidentes de trânsito (AT) em cada uma das 27 unidades federativas (UF) do Brasil. Método: Estudo ecológico de séries temporais interrompidas com dados de AT entre 2002 a 2015, totalizando 168 meses. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e do Departamento Nacional de Trânsito. Foram ajustados modelos auto-regressivos integrados de médias móveis (ARIMA) para analisar o impacto da LS-08 em cada UF. Resultados: Após a implantação da LS-08, a mortalidade por AT diminuiu significativamente no estado de Santa Catarina (pré-LS-08 = 2,60 ± 0,30 e pós-LS-08 = 2,32 ± 0,35; p < 0,001) e no Distrito Federal (pré-LS-08 = 2,22 ± 0,40 e pós-LS-08 = 1,76 ± 0,35; p = 0,002), aumentou significativamente nos estados do Acre, Amazonas, Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe e Mato Grosso e permaneceu estável nos demais. Análise de sensibilidade conduzida sob uma série temporal mais curta, com 24 meses, apresentou resultados semelhantes aos obtidos com a série de 168 meses para a maioria das 27 UF. Conclusão: A LS-08 exerceu impacto heterogêneo sobre a mortalidade por AT entre as UF.

ABSTRACT: Objective: To assess the impact of 2008 Public Law number 11,705, also known as Dry Law (DL-08), on mortality from road traffic accidents (RTA), in each of the 27 Brazilian Federative Units (BFUs). Methods: Ecological study of interrupted time series with RTA data from 2002 to 2015, totalizing 168 months. Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and from the National Traffic Department. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were adjusted to assess the impact of DL-08 in each BFUs. Results: After the implementation of the DL-08, there was a significant decrease in mortality from RTA in the state of Santa Catarina (pre DL-08 = 2.60 ± 0.30 and post DL-08 = 2.32 ± 0.35; p < 0.001) and in the Federal District (pre DL-08 = 2.22 ± 0.40 and post DL-08 = 1.76 ± 0.35; p = 0.002), a significant increase in mortality in the states of Acre, Amazonas, Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe and Mato Grosso, and a stability in the other states. The sensitivity analysis conducted over a shorter time series with 24 months showed results similar to those obtained with the 168-month series for most of the 27 BFUs. Conclusion: The DL-08 had a heterogeneous impact on mortality from traffic accidents on BFUs.

Social, economic, and political events affect gender equity in China, Nepal, and Nicaragua: a matched, interrupted time-series study.

Background: Progress in gender equity can improve health at the individual and country levels.Objectives: This study's objective was to analyze recent trends in gender equity and identify historical and contextual factors that contributed to changes in gender equity in three countries: China, Nepal, and Nicaragua.Methods: To assess gender equity trends, we used the Gender Gap Index (GGI) from the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Report (2006-2017). The GGI incorporated data on economic participation, educational attainment, health, and political empowerment for almost 150 countries. We selected China, Nepal, and Nicaragua because of their major changes in GGI and diversity in geographical location and economic status. We reviewed major social, economic, and political events during 2006-2017, and identified key events in each country. We compared countries' GGI with matched controls average using interrupted time-series analysis.Results: Nepal and Nicaragua both had dramatic increases in GGI (improvement in equity), Nepal (ß = 0.029; 95% CI: 0.003, 0.056) and Nicaragua (ß = 0.035; 95% CI: 0.005, 0.065). This was strongly influenced by political empowerment, which likely impacted access to education and employment opportunities. Despite major economic growth and new policies to address gender inequities (e.g. the One-Child Policy), China saw a significant decline in GGI between 2010 and 2017 (ß = -0.014; 95% CI: -0.024, -0.004), largely resulting from decreased gender equity in educational attainment, economic participation, and health/survival sub-indices.Conclusions: Key social, economic, and political events helped explain trends in countries' gender equity. Our study suggested that supportive social and political environments would play important roles in empowering women, which would advance human rights and promote health and well-being of individuals, households, communities, and countries.