Application of the JULES-crop model and agrometeorological indicators for forecasting off-season maize yield in Brazil.

Zea mays L is a crucial crop for Brazil, ranking second in terms of production and sixth in terms of exports. In Brazil, the second season, or off-season, accounts for 80 % of the overall maize output, which primarily occurs after the soybean main season. A maize yield forecast model for the off-season was developed and implemented throughout Brazilian territory due to its importance to the country's economy and food security. The model was built using multiple linear regressions that connected outputs simulated from a land surface model used in large-scale analysis for agriculture (JULES-crop), to agrometeorological indicators. The application of the developed model occurred every 10 days from the sowing until the maturation. A comparison of the forecasting model was verified with the official off-season maize yields for the years 2003-2016. Agrometeorological indicators during the reproductive phase accounted for 60 % of the interannual variability in maize production. When outputs simulated by JULES-crop were included, the forecasting model achieved Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (EF) of 0.77 in the maturation and EF = 0.72 in the filling-grain stage, suggesting that this approach can generate useful predictions for final maize yield beginning on the 80th day of the cycle. Outputs of JULES crop enhanced modeling performance during the vegetative stage, reducing the standard deviation error in prediction from 0.59 to 0.49 Mg ha-1.

Holistic rockfall risk assessment in high mountain areas affected by seismic activity: Application to the Uspallata valley, Central Andes, Chile.

Over large regions exposed to natural disasters, cascading effects resulting from complex or concatenated natural processes may represent a large portion of total risk. Populated high-mountain environments are a major concern, and methods for large-scale quantitative risk analyses are urgently required to improve risk mitigation. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative rockfall risk assessment over a large archetypal valley of the Andean mountains, in Central Chile, which integrates a wide spectrum of elements at risk. Risk is expressed as an expected damage both in monetary terms and casualties, at different scales relevant for decision making. Notably, total rockfall risk is divided into its main drivers, which allows quantifying seismically induced rockfall risk. For this purpose, the local seismic hazard is quantified and the yield acceleration, that is, acceleration required to initiate rockfall, is determined at the regional scale. The probability of failure is thereafter derived in terms of annual frequency of rockfall initiation and integrated in the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) process. Our results show the significant role of seismic activity as the triggering mechanism of rockfalls, and highlight elements at risk that have a major contribution to the total risk. Eventually a sensitivity analysis is conducted to (i) assess the robustness of obtained risk estimates to the data and modeling choices and (ii) identify the most influential assumptions. Our approach evidences the feasibility of large-scale QRAs in sensitive environments and opens perspectives for refining QRAs in similar territories significantly affected by cascading effects and multihazards.

Advancing school dropout early warning systems: the IAFREE relational model for identifying at-risk students.

Introduction: There is a global effort to address the school dropout phenomenon. The urgency to act on it comes from the harmful evidence that school dropout has on societal and individual levels. Early Warning Systems (EWS) for school dropout at-risk student identification have been developed to anticipate and help schools have a better chance of acting on it. However, several studies point to a doubt that Correct EWS may come too late because they use only publicly available and general student and school information. We hypothesize that having a tool to assess more subjective and inter-relational factors would help anticipate where and when to act to prevent school dropout. This study aimed to develop a multidimensional measure for assessing relational factors for predicting school dropout (SD) risk in the Brazilian context. Methods: We performed several procedures, including (a) the specialized literature review, (b) the item development of the Relational Factors for the Risk of School Dropout Scale (IAFREE in Portuguese), (c) the content validity analysis, (d) a pilot study, and (e) the administration of the IAFREE to a large Brazilian sample of high school and middle school students (N = 15,924). Results: After the theoretical steps, we found content validity for five relational dimensions for SD (Student-School, Student-School Professionals, Student-Family, Student-Community, and Student-Student) that include 12 facets of risk factors. At the empirical stage, confirmatory analysis corroborated the proposed theoretical model with 12 first-order risk factors and 5 s-order dimensions (36 items). Further, through the Item Response Theory analysis, we assessed the individual item parameters of the items, providing a brief measure without losing psychometric quality (IAFREE-12). Discussion: We discuss how this model may fill gaps in Correct EWS models and how to advance it. The IAFREE is a good measure for scholars investigating the risk of SD. These results are important for implementing an early warning system for SD that looks into the complexity of the school dropout phenomenon.