Ambient PM2.5 and productivity-adjusted life years lost in Brazil: a national population-based study.

Enormous health burden has been associated with air pollution and its effects continue to grow. However, the impact of air pollution on labour productivity at the population level is still unknown. This study assessed the association between premature death due to PM2.5 exposure and the loss of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), in Brazil. We applied a novel variant of the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the association. Daily all-cause mortality data in Brazil were collected from 2000-2019. The PALYs lost increased by 5.11% (95% CI: 4.10-6.13%), for every 10 µg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average of PM2.5. A total of 9,219,995 (95% CI: 7,491,634-10,921,141) PALYs lost and US$ 268.05 (95% CI: 217.82-317.50) billion economic costs were attributed to PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to 7.37% (95% CI: 5.99-8.73%) of the total PALYs lost due to premature death. This study also found that 5,005,306 PALYs could be avoided if the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guideline (AQG) level was met. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with a considerable labour productivity burden relating to premature death in Brazil, while over half of the burden could be prevented if the WHO AQG was met. The findings highlight the need to reduce ambient PM2.5 levels and provide strong evidence for the development of strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of air pollution.

Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019.

Background: Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region. Results: The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region. Conclusion: In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.

Burden of COVID-19 in Córdoba, A Department of Colombia: Results of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years: Carga de COVID-19 en Córdoba, un Departamento de Colombia: Resultados de los Años de Vida Ajustados por Discapacidad.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the burden of acute COVID-19 in Córdoba, one of the most affected departments (states) in Colombia, through the estimation of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). METHODS: DALYs were estimated based on the number of cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection cases reported by official Colombian sources. A transition probability matrix among severity states was calculated using data obtained from a retrospective cohort that included 1736 COVID-19 confirmed subjects living in Córdoba. RESULTS: Córdoba had 120.23 deaths per 100 000 habitants during the study period (March 2020 to April 2021). Estimated total DALYs were 49 243 (2692 DALYs per 100 000 inhabitants), mostly attributed to fatal cases (99.7%). On average, 25 years of life were lost because of death by this infection. A relevant proportion of years of life lost because of COVID-19 (46.6%) was attributable to people < 60 years old and was greater in men. People ≥ 60 years old showed greater risk of progression to critical state than people between the age of 35 and 60 years (hazard ratio 2.5; 95% confidence interval 2.5-12.5) and younger than 35 years (9.1; 95% confidence interval 4.0-20.6). CONCLUSION: In Córdoba, premature mortality because of COVID-19 was substantially represented by people < 60 years old and was greater in males. Our data may be representative of Latin American populations with great infection spread during the first year of the pandemic and contribute to novel methodological aspects and parameter estimations that may be useful to measure COVID-19 burden in other countries of the region.

Loss of Health State Utilities Attributable to Obesity.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to quantify the association between the loss of health state utilities (LHSU) and obesity, considering different obesity categories. This is relevant to interventions economic evaluations and for public policy decision planning. METHODS: Using data from the Chilean National Health Survey, this study uses linear regression models and counterfactual scenarios to calculate the prevalent burden, population averages, and total sum of LHSU attributable to obesity for the Chilean national level on people older than 15 years, year 2017. Adjustments for socioeconomic status and associated noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are considered. Calculating the LHSU using these methods enables the approximation of loss of prevalent quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: The raw obesity LHSU burden was 9.1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.1-13). When adjustment is considered, the LHSU attributable to obesity reaches 4.6% (95% UI 0.6-8.5) being responsible for 121 045 prevalent QALYs. Socioeconomic status adjusted analysis of higher body mass index (BMI, in kg/m2) categories of obesity shows a dose-response effect for LHSU, being the BMI ≥ 40 category with the highest population average of attributable LHSU (10.1; 95% UI 5.5-14.5, scale 0 [full health] to 100 [dead]). Burden for BMI ≥ 35 categories showed the biggest change after NCD adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity carries a significant burden of QALY loss. Policy decision-making addressing obesity should focus specially on the BMI ≥ 40 group. NCD comorbidity should be considered for policies addressing the BMI ≥ 35 group.

Carga de enfermedad por COVID-19 en el departamento de Nariño, Colombia, 2020-2021 / Burden of disease of COVID-19 in the department of Nariño, Colombia, 2020-2021

RESUMEN Objetivos. Estimar la carga de enfermedad por COVID-19 en el departamento de Nariño, Colombia, a partir del indicador años de vida saludables ajustados por discapacidad (AVISA) entre marzo del 2020 a agosto del 2021. Materiales y métodos. Con la información del sistema de vigilancia nacional SIVIGILA se hizo la descripción y caracterización de los casos de COVID-19 reportados entre marzo/2020 a agosto/2021, según grupos de edad, sexo, etnia, municipios de residencia y subregiones de Nariño. Se estimaron tasas crudas y de mortalidad acumulada por COVID-19 para las variables previamente descritas. Se calcularon años perdidos por muerte prematura (APMP) y años vividos por discapacidad (AVD). Se estimaron los AVISA totales mediante la suma de APMP + AVD. Estos se calcularon por sexo, etnia, grupo de edad y subregiones de Nariño. Se estimaron los riesgos relativos a partir de las razones de tasas (RT) e intervalos de confianza del 95% para las variables del estudio. Resultados. Las tasas de morbilidad, mortalidad y AVISA más altas ocurrieron entre febrero y septiembre del 2021, en hombres, en mayores de 70 años, del grupo étnico minoritario afrodescendiente y en las subregiones Centro, Obando y Juanambú. La carga de enfermedad por COVID-19 en Nariño en el periodo de estudio es atribuida a los APMP, los cuales explican más del 97% de la misma. Conclusiones. Este es uno de los primeros estudios de carga de enfermedad a nivel regional, realizados en Colombia, que emplea una metodología estandarizada para COVID-19. Esta medición generaría estimaciones que permitirían focalizar recursos de forma intersectorial, mitigar el daño a poblaciones y áreas geográficas determinadas, especialmente las más vulnerables.

ABSTRACT Objectives. To estimate the burden of disease of COVID-19 in the department of Nariño, Colombia, based on the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between March 2020 and August 2021. Materials and methods. The description and characterization of COVID-19 cases reported between March 2020 and August 2021 was made according to age groups, sex, ethnicity, municipalities of residence and subregions of Nariño by using information from the national surveillance system SIVIGILA. Crude and cumulative mortality rates for COVID-19 were estimated for the previously described variables. Years lost due to premature death (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) were calculated. Total DALYs were estimated by adding YLL + YLD. These were calculated by sex, ethnicity, age group and subregions of Nariño. Relative risks were estimated from rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals for the study variables. Results. The highest morbidity, mortality and DALY rates occurred between February and September 2021, in men, in those older than 70 years, in the Afro-descendant ethnic minority group and in the Central, Obando and Juanambú subregions. The burden of disease of COVID-19 in Nariño during the study period is attributed to the YLL, which explain more than 97% of it. Conclusions. This is one of the first studies on burden of disease at the regional level, carried out in Colombia, that employs a standardized methodology for COVID-19. This measurement would generate estimates that would allow targeting resources in an intersectoral manner, mitigating the damage to specific populations and geographic areas, especially the most vulnerable ones.

Lessons for Developing Countries From Outlier Country Health Systems.

Building good health systems is an important objective for policy makers in any country. Developing countries which are just starting out on their journeys need to do this by using their limited resources in the best way possible. The total health expenditure of a country exerts a significant influence on its health outcomes but, given the well-understood failures of price-based market-mechanisms, countries that spend the most money do not necessarily end-up building the best health systems. To help developing country policy makers gain a deeper insight into what factors matter, in this study the contribution of per-capita total, out-of-pocket, and pooled health expenditures, to the cross-country variation in Disability Adjusted Life Years lost per 100,000 population (DALY Rates), a summary measure of health outcomes, is estimated. The country-specific residuals from these analyses are then examined to understand the sources of the rest of the variation. The study finds that these measures are able to explain between 40 and 50% of the variation in the DALY Rates with percentage increases in per-capita out-of-pocket and pooled expenditures being associated with improvements in DALY Rates of about 0.06% and 0.095%, respectively. This suggests that while increases in per-capita total health expenditures do matter, moving them away from out-of-pocket to pooled has the potential to produce material improvements in DALY Rates, and that taken together these financial parameters are able to explain only about half the cross-country variation in DALY Rates. The analysis of the residuals from these regressions finds that while there may be a minimum level of per-capita total health expenditures (> $100) which needs to be crossed for a health system to perform (Bangladesh being a clear and sole exception), it is possible for countries to perform very well even at very low levels of these expenditures. Colombia, Thailand Honduras, Peru, Nicaragua, Jordan, Sri Lanka, and the Krygyz Republic, are examples of countries which have demonstrated this. It is also apparent from the analysis that while very high rates (> 75%) of pooling are essential to build truly high performing health systems (with DALYRates < 20, 000), a high level of pooling on its own is insufficient to deliver strong health outcomes, and also that even at lower levels of pooling it is possible for countries to out-perform their peers. This is apparent from the examples of Ecuador, Mexico, Honduras, Malaysia, Vietnam, Kyrgyz Republic, and Sri Lanka, which are all doing very well despite having OOP% in the region of 40-60%. The analysis of residuals also suggests that while pooling (in any form) is definitely beneficial, countries with single payer systems are perhaps more effective than those with multiple payers perhaps because, despite their best efforts, they have insufficient market power over customers and providers to adequately manage the pulls and pressures of market forces. It can also be seen that countries and regions such as Honduras, Peru, Nicaragua, Jordan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Kerala, and the Kyrgyz Republic, despite their modest levels of per-capita total health expenditures have delivered attractive DALY Rates on account of their consistent prioritization of public-health interventions such as near 100% vaccine coverage levels and strong control of infectious diseases. Additionally, countries such as Turkey, Colombia, Costa Rica, Thailand, Peru, Nicaragua, and Jordan, have all delivered low DALY Rates despite modest levels of per-capita total health expenditures on account of their emphasis on primary care. While, as can be seen from the discussion, several valuable conclusions can be drawn from this kind of analysis, the evolution of health systems is a complex journey, driven by multiple local factors, and a multi-country cross-sectional study of the type attempted here runs the risk of glossing over them. The study attempts to address these limitations by being parsimonious and simple in its approach toward specifying its quantitative models, and validating its conclusions by looking deeper into country contexts.

Guidelines for Utility Measurement for Economic Analysis: The Brazilian Policy.

INTRODUCTION: Health-related quality of life is expressed in utilities, also referred to as utility estimates or parameters. Considerations about the source and type of utility values are especially important in a modeling context, where the lack of transparency, including the lack of a hierarchy for utility data sources, is a major issue to any estimation and can potentially compromise model reliability. OBJECTIVES: This document aims to present the first version of the Brazilian guidelines for utility measurement to support economic analysis. METHODS: A virtual workshop and a modified Delphi panel with 10 health technology specialists followed a rapid evaluation of 110 technical documents and indexed publications. The recommendations are based on the proposition that has received the most votes, although contentious issues are addressed in the suggestion or discussion. The rationale for the final decision is included in the text. RESULTS: The consensus includes 50 recommendations with the following topics: Transparency and Reliability, Model Design, Conditions Under Which Generic Questionnaires Are Not Sensible or Valid, Utility Evidence Hierarchy, Utility Data Searching, Modeling Utility Values, Extrapolating Quality Adjusted Life-Years for Models With Lifetime Horizons, Caregiver Utility, Utility Data Synthesis, Quality/Certainty of the Evidence, and Utility Estimates in End-of-Life Conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The goal of this project is to create unified national standards for using utility metrics in economic analysis in Brazil. This set of recommendations is not obligatory, but it is meant to serve as a guide and lead to the development of better and more transparent economic models in the country.

The Development of a New International Generic Measure (EQ-HWB): Face Validity and Psychometric Stages in Argentina.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to present the face validity and psychometric stages performed in Spanish in Argentina, the only Spanish-speaking country of an international collaboration that undertook the construction of a new measure that can be used in economic evaluation across health, social care, and public health, the EQ EQ-HWB (EQ Health and Wellbeing). We also explored the relationship among 3-level version EQ-5D (EQ-5D-3L), 5-level version EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L), and EQ-HWB. METHODS: Face validity was based on semistructured face to face interviews of a purposive sample to explore translatability of language and concepts of 97 candidate items, translated into Argentina Spanish. The psychometric evaluation using an online panel assessed the psychometric properties of 64 items that were carried forward (floor and ceiling effects, item correlations, known-group differences in relevant prespecified subgroups by the international and local teams, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and item response theory). EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L, and EQ-HWB correlations were explored. RESULTS: In the face validity stage, 24 interviews with carers, general public, patients, and users of social services were included. Most items showed adequate face validity. In the psychometric assessment, 497 participants were recruited (64% reporting a long-term health condition). Most of the items showed adequate psychometrics in an Argentinian context. EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L had strong correlations, and EQ-HWB was moderately correlated to EQ visual analog scale. The Argentina team recommended 23 of the final 25 items. CONCLUSIONS: The assessment of Spanish items contributed to the overall development of EQ-HWB and helped inform the design of an internationally relevant 25-item and a short 9-item measure intended to be used in economic evaluations.

Modelling diagnostics for Echinococcus granulosus surveillance in sheep using Latent Class Analysis: Argentina as a case study.

Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato is a globally prevalent zoonotic parasitic cestode leading to cystic echinococcosis (CE) in both humans and sheep with both medical and financial impacts, whose reduction requires the application of a One Health approach to its control. Regarding the animal health component of this approach, lack of accurate and practical diagnostics in livestock impedes the assessment of disease burden and the implementation and evaluation of control strategies. We use of a Bayesian Latent Class Analysis (LCA) model to estimate ovine CE prevalence in sheep samples from the Río Negro province of Argentina accounting for uncertainty in the diagnostics. We use model outputs to evaluate the performance of a novel recombinant B8/2 antigen B subunit (rEgAgB8/2) indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting E. granulosus in sheep. Necropsy (as a partial gold standard), western blot (WB) and ELISA diagnostic data were collected from 79 sheep within two Río Negro slaughterhouses, and used to estimate individual infection status (assigned as a latent variable within the model). Using the model outputs, the performance of the novel ELISA at both individual and flock levels was evaluated, respectively, using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and simulating a range of sample sizes and prevalence levels within hypothetical flocks. The estimated (mean) prevalence of ovine CE was 27.5% (95%Bayesian credible interval (95%BCI): 13.8%-58.9%) within the sample population. At the individual level, the ELISA had a mean sensitivity and specificity of 55% (95%BCI: 46%-68%) and 68% (95%BCI: 63%-92%), respectively, at an optimal optical density (OD) threshold of 0.378. At the flock level, the ELISA had an 80% probability of correctly classifying infection at an optimal cut-off threshold of 0.496. These results suggest that the novel ELISA could play a useful role as a flock-level diagnostic for CE surveillance in the region, supplementing surveillance activities in the human population and thus strengthening a One Health approach. Importantly, selection of ELISA cut-off threshold values must be tailored according to the epidemiological situation.

Health and economic burden due to malaria in Peru over 30 years (1990-2019): Findings from the global burden of diseases study 2019.

Background: Malaria is one of the biggest impediments to global progress. In Peru, it is still a major public health problem. Measures of health and economic burden due to malaria are relevant considerations for the assessment of current policies. Methods: We used estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 for malaria in Peru, grouped by gender and age, from 1990 to 2019. Results are presented as absolute numbers and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). We collected economic data from the World Bank and The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics of Peru and Loreto to calculate the economic burden of productivity loss (EBPL) using the human capital approach. Economic values were presented in constant dollars, soles, and percentages. Findings: Rates of deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), as well as the EBPL, were drastically reduced from 1990 to 2019. DALYs had a greater percentage of YLDs in 2019 than in 1990. DALYs rates showed no preference between sexes, but the "< 1 year" age group had the highest DALYs values over the study period. We found that the EBPL due to malaria for Loreto was considerably higher than Peru's in terms of GDP percentage. Interpretation: Our study shows that the fight against malaria in Peru reduced remarkably the impact of the disease since 1990; however, during the last decade the estimates were stable or even increased. Our results help to measure the malaria impact on the health status of the Peruvian population as well as the economic pressure that it exerts, constituting remarkable tools for policymaking aimed at reducing the burden of this disease. Strengthening the malaria elimination program is important to achieve the elimination of the disease in the coming years. Funding: This study was supported by the Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza and FONDECYT: Contrato Nº 09-2019-FONDECYT-BMINC.INV and FONDECYT-BM, Perú (Program INCORPORACIÓN DE INVESTIGADORES E038-2019-01, Registry Number: 64007).

The addition of mirror therapy improved upper limb motor recovery and level of independence after stroke: a randomized controlled trial / A terapia do espelho melhora a recuperação motora do membro superior e o nível de independência após AVC: um ensaio clínico randomizado

Abstract Introduction In stroke survivors, the prevalence of upper motor disability remains high. There has not been much report on the success of post-stroke mirror therapy, especially in developing countries. Objective The focus of this research is to see how mirror therapy, in addition to standard rehabilitation for hand paresis, affects upper limb motor recovery and level of independence in self-care after stroke at an Indonesian teaching hospital. Method This was a randomized controlled trial with no assessor blinding. The study included 18 subacute stroke patients who did not have cognitive or visual impairment. The mirror group received a 20-minute mirror therapy session in addition to conventional rehabilitation, while the control group received only the standard program for 5 weeks (2 times per week). The Brunnstrom score and self-care level of independence elements of the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) were used as outcome measures. Results Baseline comparisons of lesion type and Brunnstrom score showed significant between-group differences. The ANACOVA test showed the difference had no effect on the FIM change in scores (P > 0.05). One patient (mirror group) was dropped out from the study. After 5 weeks (n=17), the mirror group showed improvement in both the Brunnstrom and FIM scores (P < 0.05) compared to the control group. Conclusions Mirror treatment improves upper limb motor recovery and level of independence in self-care after stroke when combined with standard hand paresis rehabilitation 2 times a week for 5 weeks.

Resumo Introdução Em sobreviventes de AVC, a prevalência de deficiência motora nos membros superiores permanece alta. Não há muitos relatos sobre o sucesso da terapia do espelho pós-AVC, especialmente em países em desenvolvimento. Objetivo O foco desta pesquisa é ver como a terapia do espelho, além da reabilitação padrão para paresia da mão, afeta a recuperação motora do membro superior e o nível de independência no autocuidado após o AVC em um hospital universitário da Indonésia. Método Ensaio clínico randomizado sem cegamento do avaliador. O estudo incluiu 18 pacientes com AVC subagudo que não tinham deficiência cognitiva ou visual. O grupo de espelho recebeu uma sessão de terapia de espelho de 20 minutos além da reabilitação convencional, enquanto o grupo de controle recebeu apenas o programa padrão por 5 semanas (2 vezes por semana). O escore de Brunnstrom e os elementos do nível de independência do autocuidado da Medida de Independência Funcional (MIF) foram usados ​​como medidas de desfecho. Resultados As comparações da linha de base do tipo de lesão e do escore de Brunnstrom mostraram diferenças significativas entre os grupos. O teste ANACOVA mostrou que a diferença não teve efeito na mudança da MIF nos escores (P> 0,05). Um paciente (grupo espelho) foi retirado do estudo. Após 5 semanas (n = 17), o grupo espelho mostrou melhora em ambos os escores de Brunnstrom e FIM (P <0,05) em comparação com o grupo de controle. Conclusão O tratamento com espelho melhora a recuperação motora dos membros superiores e o nível de independência no autocuidado após o AVC quando combinado com a reabilitação de paresia de mão padrão 2 vezes por semana durante 5 semanas.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Prostate cancer is one of the most common malignancies among men worldwide. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening shows uncertain benefits and harms from clinical and economic perspectives, resulting in an important impact on healthcare systems. Because of nonstandardized studies and substantial differences among populations, data are still inconclusive. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to carry out long-term cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis on the PSA-screened population from the service provider's perspective in the Brazilian population. METHODS: We performed a cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis using clinical outcomes obtained from 9692 men enrolled in the PSA screening program. Prostate cancer treatments, 5-year follow-up outcomes, and all related costs were examined. Data were compared with a nonscreened prostate cancer population to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR). ICER and ICUR were compared with the Brazilian-established willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold (WTP = R$ 114 026.55). RESULTS: A total of 251 of 9692 men had a diagnosis of prostate cancer (2.6%), of which 90% had localized disease. Two hundred and five patients were treated as follows: surgery (45.37%); radiation therapy (11.22%); radiation plus androgen deprivation therapy (21.95%); active surveillance (13.17%); exclusive androgen deprivation therapy (7.32%); and watchful waiting (0.98%). Two simulated cohorts were compared based on screening and nonscreening groups. Values obtained were-ICER of R$ 44 491.39 per life saved and ICUR of R$ 10 851.56 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained-below the Brazilian WTP threshold and showed cost-effectiveness and cost-utility advantages. CONCLUSION: According to the Brazilian WTP, PSA screening is a cost-effective policy from a hospital and long-term perspective and should have more standardized studies developed in different populations and economies.

International cost-effectiveness analysis evaluating endoscopic screening for gastric cancer for populations with low and high risk.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer remains one of the 3 most common causes of cancer death worldwide. Understanding the health and economic factors that affect screening cost-effectiveness in different countries will help address when and where it makes most sense to screen for gastric cancer. METHODS: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model to compare screening and surveillance strategies for gastric cancer in Brazil, France, Japan, Nigeria, and the United States. Primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. We then performed a sensitivity analysis to determine how each variable affected the overall model. RESULTS: In all countries, the most cost-effective strategies, measured by incremental cost-effectiveness ratio relative to no screening, were screening every 10 years, surveillance of high- and low-risk patients every 5 and 10 years, respectively, and screening every 5 years. Only Japan had at least one cost-effective screening strategy. The most important variables across different screening strategies and countries were starting age of screening, cost of endoscopy, and baseline probability of local gastric cancer at time of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our model suggests that screening for gastric cancer is cost-effective in countries with higher incidence and lower costs of screening, but screening may still be a viable option in high-risk populations within low incidence countries.

Changes in malaria patterns in Brazil over 28 years (1990-2017): results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: This study presents the malaria burden in Brazil from 1990 to 2017 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), by analyzing disease burden indicators in federated units of the Legal Amazon and Extra-Amazon regions, as well as describing malaria cases according to Plasmodium species occurring in the country. METHODS: We used estimates from the GBD 2017 to report years of life lost due to premature death (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for malaria in Brazil, grouped by gender, age group, and Brazilian federated unit, from 1990 to 2017. Results are presented as absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS: At the national level, the age-standardized DALYs rate due to malaria decreased by 92.0%, from 42.5 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants (95% UI 16.6-56.9) in 1990 to 3.4 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants (95% UI 2.7-4.7) in 2017. The YLLs were the main component of the total DALYs rate for malaria in 1990 (67.3%), and the YLDs were the main component of the metric in 2017 (61.8%). In 2017, the highest sex-age DALYs rate was found among females in the "< 1-year-old" age group, with a 6.4 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants (95% UI 1.8-14.7) and among males in the age group of "20 to 24 years old", with a 4.7 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants (95% UI 3.3-9.9). Within the Brazilian Amazon region, the three federated units with the highest age-standardized DALYs rates in 2017 were Acre [28.4 (95% UI 14.2-39.1)], Roraima [28.3 (95% UI 13.5-40.2)], and Rondônia [24.7 (95% UI 11.4-34.8)]. Concerning the parasite species that caused malaria, 73.5% of the total of cases registered in the period had Plasmodium vivax as the etiological agent. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the GBD 2017 show that despite the considerable reduction in the DALYs rates between 1990 and 2017, malaria remains a relevant and preventable disease, which in recent years has generated more years of life lost due to disability than deaths. The states endemic for malaria in the Amazon region require constant evaluation of preventive and control measures. The present study will contribute to the direction of current health policies aimed at reducing the burden of malaria in Brazil, as knowing the geographical and temporal distribution of the risk of death and disability of this disease can facilitate the planning, implementation, and improvement of control strategies aimed at eliminating the disease.

The burden of tuberculosis and attributable risk factors in Brazil, 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be an important cause of fatal and non-fatal burden in Brazil. In this study, we present estimates for TB burden in Brazil from 1990 to 2017 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017). METHODS: This descriptive study used GBD 2017 findings to report years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB in Brazil by sex, age group, HIV status, and Brazilian states, from 1990 to 2017. We also present the TB burden attributable to independent risk factors such as smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Results are reported in absolute number and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: In 2017, the number of DALYs due to TB (HIV-negative and HIV-positive combined) in Brazil was 284,323 (95% UI: 240,269-349,265). Among HIV-negative individuals, the number of DALYs was 196,366 (95% UI: 189,645-202,394), while 87,957 DALYs (95% UI: 50,624-146,870) were estimated among HIV-positive individuals. Between 1990 and 2017, the absolute number and age-standardized rates of DALYs due to TB at the national level decreased by 47.0% and 68.5%, respectively. In 2017, the sex-age-specific TB burden was highest among males and in children under-1 year and the age groups 45-59 years. The Brazilian states with the highest age-standardized DALY rates in 2017 were Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco, and Amazonas. Age-standardized DALY rates decreased for all 27 Brazilian states between 1990 and 2017. Alcohol use accounted for 47.5% of national DALYs due to TB among HIV-negative individuals in 2017, smoking for 17.9%, and diabetes for 7.7%. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 results show that, despite the remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates during the period, TB remains as an important and preventable cause of health lost to due premature death and disability in Brazil. The findings reinforce the importance of strengthening TB control strategies in Brazil through integrated and multisectoral actions that enable the access to prevention, early diagnosis, and timely treatment, with emphasis on high-risk groups and populations most vulnerable to the disease in the country.

Economic benefit of neurosurgical intervention for infant hydrocephalus in Haiti.

OBJECTIVE: Previous models have been utilized in other low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to explore and assess the cost, sustainability, and effectiveness of infant hydrocephalus treatment. However, similar models have not been implemented in Haiti due to a paucity of data, epidemiology, and outcomes for hydrocephalus. Therefore, the authors utilized previously described economic modeling to estimate the annual cost and benefit of treating hydrocephalus in infants at a neurosurgery referral center, Hospital Bernard Mevs (HBM), in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. METHODS: The authors conducted a retrospective review of data obtained in all children treated for hydrocephalus at the HBM from 2008 to 2015. The raw data were pooled with previously described surgical outcomes for hydrocephalus in other LMICs. Modeling was performed to determine outcomes, neurosurgical costs, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and economic benefits of Haitian hydrocephalus treatment during this time frame. Standard account methodology was employed to calculate cost per procedure. Using these formulas, the net economic benefit and cost/DALY were determined for hydrocephalus treatment at HBM from 2008 to 2015. RESULTS: Of the 401 patients treated during the study period, 158 (39.4%) met criteria for postinfectious hydrocephalus, 54 (13.5%) had congenital hydrocephalus, 38 (9.5%) had myelomeningocele, 19 (4.7%) had aqueductal stenosis, and 132 (33%) were not placed into a category. Overall, 317 individuals underwent surgical treatment of their hydrocephalus, averting 3077 DALYs. The total cost of the procedures was $754,000, and the cost per DALY ranged between $86 and $245. The resulting net economic benefit for neurosurgical intervention ranged from $2.5 to $5.5 million. CONCLUSIONS: This work demonstrates the substantial economic benefit of neurosurgical intervention for the treatment of pediatric hydrocephalus at a single hospital in Haiti. Based on DALYs averted, the need for additional centers offering basic neurosurgical services is apparent. A single center offering these services for several days each month was able to generate between $2.5 to $5.5 million in economic benefits, suggesting the need to develop neurosurgical capacity building in Haiti. Ultimately, prevention, screening, and early surgical treatment of these infants represent a public health and socioeconomic requisite for Haiti.

Cost-Effectiveness of Secukinumab Versus Other Biologics in the Treatment of Psoriatic Arthritis: An Argentinean Perspective.

OBJECTIVE: Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is a chronic, systemic inflammatory disease. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of secukinumab, an interleukin-17A inhibitor, versus other biologics in PsA from the Argentinean social security perspective. METHODS: A semi-Markov model evaluated subcutaneous (sc) treatment with secukinumab 150 mg and 300 mg against other sc treatments such as adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, ustekinumab, and intravenous treatment infliximab in biologic-naïve (with or without moderate to severe psoriasis) and biologic-experienced PsA patients over a lifetime horizon. Response to treatments was determined using the PsA Response Criteria (PsARC) at 12 weeks. Model inputs were derived from randomized controlled trials, network meta-analyses, published literature, and other Argentinean sources. Model outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Sensitivity analyses and alternative scenarios with a higher cost option were also conducted. RESULTS: Among biologic-naïve PsA patients without psoriasis, secukinumab 150 mg provided the highest QALYs (7.18) versus all sc biologics at the lowest cost ($3 755 678 Argentine peso), thus dominating them. Among biologic-naïve PsA patients with psoriasis and biologic-experienced PsA patients, secukinumab 300 mg provided highest QALYs (6.99 and 7.53, respectively), dominated infliximab, and was cost-effective versus other sc biologics. Deterministic sensitivity analyses indicated sensitivity of results to variation in PsARC rates, drug acquisition costs, Health Assessment Questionnaire change, and utilities. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed maximum net monetary benefits with both secukinumab doses. Results from an alternative scenario analysis were similar to base-case analysis. CONCLUSIONS: For both biologic-naïve and experienced PsA patients, secukinumab is either a dominant or cost-effective treatment option compared with other biologics in Argentina.

Burden of Chagas disease in Brazil, 1990-2016: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Chagas disease continues to be an important cause of morbidity, mortality and disability in several Latin American countries, including Brazil. Using findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD, 2016), we present years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years due to Chagas disease in Brazil, by sex, age group, and Brazilian states, from 1990 to 2016. Results are reported in absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 population) with 95% uncertainty intervals. In 2016, 141,640 disability-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty intervals: 129,065-155,941) due to Chagas disease were estimated in Brazil, with a relative reduction of 36.7% compared with 1990 (223,879 disability-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty intervals: 209,372-238,591)). Age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates declined at the national level (-69.7%) and in all Brazilian states between 1990 and 2016, but with different regional patterns. The decrease in the disability-adjusted life year rates was driven primarily by a consistent reduction in the years of life lost rates, the main component of total disability-adjusted life years for Chagas disease. The highest fatal and non-fatal burden due to Chagas disease was observed among males, the elderly, and in those Brazilian states encompassing important endemic areas for vector transmission in the past. Despite the consistent reduction in its burden during the period, Chagas disease is still an important and neglected cause of health lost due to premature mortality and disability in Brazil. Efforts should be made to maintain the political interest and sustainability of surveillance and control actions for Chagas disease, prevent the risk of re-emergence of vector transmission in endemic areas, and provide health care to chronically infected individuals, including early diagnosis and treatment interventions.

Carga de enfermedad del virus de inmunodeficiencia humana /síndrome de inmunodeficiencia adquirida en Boyacá, 2015-2016 / Disease Rate of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus /Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome in the Boyacá Province, 2015-2016 / Carga de doença do vírus de imunodeficiência humana /síndrome de imunodeficiência adquirida em Boyacá, 2015-2016

Resumen Se determinó la carga de enfermedad del virus de inmunodeficiencia humana/síndrome de inmunodeficiencia adquirida en Boyacá 2015-2016. Fue un estudio descriptivo de tipo ecológico exploratorio; se tomaron datos de morbilidad y mortalidad, se estimó la tasa de mortalidad. Con respecto a la estimación de años de vida ajustados por discapacidad, se analizó con las herramientas de carga global de enfermedad de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. Se encontró que de la población total con el evento, el 74,9% correspondió a hombres y el 25,1% a mujeres. La tasa de mortalidad fue de 0,5 en el 2015 y 1,4 en el 2016 por cada 100.000 habitantes y un total de 169 años de vida perdidos a causa de padecer el evento. La carga de enfermedad por este evento durante los años 2015 y 2016 se debe principalmente a los años de vida perdidos por muerte prematura, en especial para el sexo masculino.

Abstract: The disease rate for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome was determined in the Boyacá province during 2015-2016. It was an ecological exploratory descriptive study including morbidity and mortality data with which the mortality rate was estimated. Regarding the estimation of leave-adjusted life year losses, the analysis used the tools for disease global rate provided by the World Health Organization. It was found that the total population with this condition, 74.9% were men and 25.1% were women. Mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants was 0.5 in 2015 and 1.4 in 2016 and 169 life years were lost in total due to this condition. The disease rate brought about by this condition during 2015 and 2016 is mainly derived from the life years lost due to premature deaths, especially among men.

Resumo Determinou-se a carga de doença do vírus de imunodeficiência humana/síndrome de imunodeficiência adquirida em Boyacá 2015-2016. Foi um estudo descritivo de tipo ecológico exploratório; pegaram-se dados de morbidade e mortalidade, estimou-se a taxa de mortalidade. No que diz respeito à estimação de anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade, analisou-se com as ferramentas de carga global de doença da Organização Mundial da Saúde. Encontrou-se que da população total com o evento, 74,9% correspondeu a homens e 25,1% a mulheres. A taxa de mortalidade foi de 0,5 no 2015 e 1,4 no 2016 por cada 100.000 habitantes e um total de 169 anos de vida perdidos por causa de padecer o evento. A carga de doença por este evento durante os anos 2015 e 2016 deve-se principalmente aos anos de vida perdidos por morte prematura, em especial para o sexo masculino.

Measuring the Benefits of Healthcare: DALYs and QALYs - Does the Choice of Measure Matter? A Case Study of Two Preventive Interventions.

BACKGROUND: The measurement of health benefits is a key issue in health economic evaluations. There is very scarce empirical literature exploring the differences of using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as benefit metrics and their potential impact in decision-making. METHODS: Two previously published models delivering outputs in QALYs, were adapted to estimate DALYs: a Markov model for human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination, and a pneumococcal vaccination deterministic model (PNEUMO). Argentina, Chile, and the United Kingdom studies were used, where local EQ-5D social value weights were available to provide local QALY weights. A primary study with descriptive vignettes was done (n = 73) to obtain EQ-5D data for all health states included in both models. Several scenario analyses were carried-out to evaluate the relative importance of using different metrics (DALYS or QALYs) to estimate health benefits on these economic evaluations. RESULTS: QALY gains were larger than DALYs avoided in all countries for HPV, leading to more favorable decisions using the former. With discounting and age-weighting - scenario with greatest differences in all countries - incremental DALYs avoided represented the 75%, 68%, and 43% of the QALYs gained in Argentina, Chile, and United Kingdom respectively. Differences using QALYs or DALYs were less consistent and sometimes in the opposite direction for PNEUMO. These differences, similar to other widely used assumptions, could directly influence decision-making using usual gross domestic products (GDPs) per capita per DALY or QALY thresholds. CONCLUSION: We did not find evidence that contradicts current practice of many researchers and decision-makers of using QALYs or DALYs interchangeably. Differences attributed to the choice of metric could influence final decisions, but similarly to other frequently used assumptions.