Simulation Study on the Influence of Different Molten Steel Temperatures on Inclusion Distribution under Dual-Channel Induction-Heating Conditions.

Impurity elimination in tundishes is an essential metallurgical function in continuous casting. If inclusions in a tundish cannot be effectively removed, their presence will have a serious impact on the quality of the bloom. As a result, this research investigates the locations of inclusion particles in a six-strand induction-heating tundish in depth, combining the flow, temperature, and inclusion trajectories of molten steel under electromagnetic fields. The results show that a pinch effect occurred in the induction-heating tundish, and a rotating magnetic field formed in the channel, with a maximum value of 0.158 T. The electromagnetic force was directed toward the center of the axis, and its numerical distribution corresponds to the magnetic flux density distribution, with a maximum value of 2.11 × 105 N/m3. The inclusion particles' movement speed accelerated as the molten steel's temperature rose, and their distribution in the channel was identical to the rotating flow field distribution. When the steel's temperature rose from 1750 K to 1850 K, the removal percentage of inclusion particles in the discharge chamber rose by 9.20%, the removal rate at the outlet decreased from 8.00% to 3.00%, and the adhesion percentage of inclusion particles in the channel decreased from 48.40% to 44.40%.

Assessment of Instant Loss of Elbow Flexion in Children with Untreated Gartland IIA Humeral Supracondylar Fractures-A Simulation Study with Lateral Elbow Radiographs.

OBJECTIVE: The suitability of in situ cast fixation for treating Gartland IIA humeral supracondylar fractures has remained controversial due to concerns regarding loss of elbow flexion. This study aimed to assess the instant loss of elbow flexion after Gartland IIA humeral supracondylar fractures based on the relationship between the anterior marginal line of the humerus and capitellum in the lateral view. METHODS: This simulation study was conducted with normal radiographs using Adobe Photoshop 14.0, followed by verification using clinical cases. Standard lateral views of normal elbows of children were collected from January 2008 to February 2020. Adobe Photoshop was used to simulate Gartland IIA supracondylar fractures with different degrees of angulation in the sagittal plane. A formula was deduced to assess flexion loss, and this method was verified in three cases. The data were grouped by age, and the relationship between elbow flexion loss and age, as well as the angulation of the fracture, was analyzed using a one-way or multivariate ANOVA. RESULTS: There was a flexion loss of 19° (11-30°) when the anterior margin line of the humerus was tangential to the capitellum. This loss increased with age at injury (r = 0.731, P = 0.000). Moreover, the difference in angulation in the sagittal plane also influenced the extent of elbow flexion loss (r = -0.739, P = 0.000). The more horizontal the fracture line in the lateral view, the greater the loss of elbow flexion. CONCLUSION: Instant elbow flexion loss after Gartland IIA humeral supracondylar fractures increases with age at the time of injury and decreases with angulation in the sagittal plane. When the anterior margin of the humerus is tangential to the capitellum, there will be an average loss of 19° in elbow flexion. These findings provide a quantitative reference for clinical decision-making in the treatment of Gartland IIA supracondylar fractures.

Mathematical simulation of damage detection for fighting athletes and equipment based on conjugated polymer development.

Traditional combat sports equipment usually uses synthetic materials, such as polyurethane and synthetic leather. Although these materials have a certain degree of strength and durability, they have poor flexibility and antibacterial properties, making it difficult to provide stable support and protection for athletes. In order to enhance the antibacterial properties and flexibility of sports equipment and reduce the risk of injuries to athletes, this article conducts in-depth research on the development of combat sports equipment using conjugated polymers. This article first selects polypropylene (PP) as the base material for sports equipment for combat athletes, and uses the gas phase polymerization method to prepare the material; then uses chitosan as an antimicrobial agent and uses the oxidative degradation method to prepare it; after that, this article coats the chitosan antibacterial agent on the prepared PP material, and uses a combination of dipping and calendering for antibacterial treatment; finally, this article uses the spunbond melt-blown composite method to fill and combine the top equipment of combat athletes to achieve the structural design of sports equipment. In order to verify the effectiveness of the equipment, this article conducted equipment performance testing and sports injury simulation. The results showed that the average diameter of the antibacterial zone of this sports equipment reached more than 1 mm, and in the injury risk test, the risk of athletes' joint and muscle injuries was reduced by 16.9% and 20.5% respectively. Research shows that developing combat sports equipment based on conjugated polymers can help reduce the risk of injury to athletes and improve the safety of combat sports.

Effect of Flow Field Optimization of an Asymmetric Multi-Strand Tundish on the Quality Consistency of Cracking Con-Rod Steel.

Cracking con-rod is an advanced high-precision connecting structure based on brittle expansion, breaking and reconnection of steel, to solve the problem of assembly circle missing. High carbon micro-alloyed steel C70S6, as a dominant material for the production of cracking con-rod, has extremely strict requirements on non-metallic inclusions in steel and microstructure stability. Continuous casting tundish plays an important role in removing large-sized inclusions and stabilizing casting quality. Aiming at the inconsistent casting quality of C70S6 steel produced by a three-strand asymmetric tundish and the frequent occurrence of slag entrapment problems in Xining Special Steel, the tundish structure was optimized by means of physical modelling combined with numerical simulation, and the quality of the bloom castings and subsequent hot-rolled products before and after optimization were compared based on volume production. The results show that a new flow control design to the tundish can effectively improve the consistency of its metallurgical effect for each of the three strands and the following overall product quality, in which the flow field and temperature field in the tundish are more uniform. This is due to the adoption of a vortex inhibitor and an optimized wall structure according to the measured RTD curve, ink trajectory and numerical simulation on the 3-D streamline contours and temperature distribution in the tundish. The peak concentration of outlet 1 is decreased from 6.5 before optimization to less than 2.0 after optimization, which means the elimination or alleviation of the local short-circuit flow. The maximum temperature difference of C70S6 molten steel measured at the outlets of the tundish three strands is decreased from 2-5 °C to 1-3 °C, which is in good agreement with the numerical simulation results. The difference in columnar crystal ratio of the corresponding bloom castings is decreased from 2.27-3.17% to 1.26-1.85%, and the consistency of central carbon segregation index is also significantly improved. In addition, the difference in oxygen content among the three strand blooms is decreased from 1.7-3.5 ppm to 0.8-1.9 ppm. As a result, the overall mechanical properties and microstructure stability of the hot-rolled products are improved statistically, in which the hardness fluctuation is decreased from 84 HBW to 60 HBW, the inclusion grade of types B + C + D + Ds is reduced to 1.105, and the occurrence rate of Ds dropped to 0.118%. Accordingly, the failure rate of the cracking con-rod is controlled stably within 4‱, and the fracture is generally smoother than that before tundish optimization. In summary, the flow field optimization to a multi-strand asymmetric tundish has a clear effect on improving the overall quality of its bloom castings and rolled products, which should be paid more attention industrially. Meanwhile, the present study provides a reliable theoretical and experimental reference for the improvement of metallurgical effects of an asymmetric-typed tundish commonly used in special steel production.

Mathematical Simulation of Casson MHD Flow through a Permeable Moving Wedge with Nonlinear Chemical Reaction and Nonlinear Thermal Radiation.

The influence of the chemical interaction and dynamic micropolar convective heat transfer flow of Casson fluid caused by a moving wedge immersed in a porous material was explored. The Joule heating owing to magnetized porous matrix heating was also deliberated. The mathematical formulation for mass conservation, momentum, energy, and concentration profiles was expressed in the form of partial differential equations. The dimensionless set of ordinary equations was reduced from modeled equations via a transformation framework and then solved by the RK4 built-in function in MATLAB SOFTWARE by taking a step size of Δη=0.01. The existing work was compared with the published work. The iteration procedure was stopped until all of the nodes in the η-direction met the convergence condition 10-5. The physical appearance of material parameters on the flow field, temperature, concentration, drag force, and Nusselt number was discussed through plots. The numerical results were obtained for limiting circumstances. The unsteadiness factor thinned the velocity boundary layer but decreased the thermal and concentration boundary layers. By increasing the Eckert number, the nondimensional temperature profile was enhanced. The novelty of the present study is that no one has numerically investigated the magnetized Casson fluid over a moving wedge in the presence of a chemical reaction and thermal radiation.

ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation) Models for Plant Circadian Networks: What the Models Are and How They Should Be Used.

ODE models have been used for decades to help circadian biologists understand the rhythmic phenomena they observe and to predict the behavior of plant circadian rhythms under changed conditions such as genetic mutations or novel environments. The models vary in complexity, and for good reasons, but they share the same mathematical ingredients in their construction and the same computational methods in their solution. Here we explain the fundamental concepts which define ODE models. We sketch how ODE models can be understood, how they can be solved mathematically and computationally, and the important distinction between autonomous and non-autonomous phenomena. The concepts are illustrated with examples which illustrate the basic concepts and which may help to describe the strengths and limitations of these models and the computational investigations of their properties.

Contact tracing as a measure to combat COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.

BACKGROUND: Most of the mathematical modeling studies on COVID-19 transmission are based on continuous deterministic models that do not consider the characteristics of social networks. METHODS: The effect of contact tracing on mitigating COVID-19, and other infectious diseases in general, is studied in a small-world network. This network has its advantages over the commonly used continuous deterministic mathematical models in that the characteristics of social networks can be properly incorporated. RESULTS: Simulation results show that for the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, contact tracing can play an important role in reducing and delaying the peak daily new cases. New cases can be reduced by using symptom onset to isolate tracked individuals, but the benefit can be greatly enhanced by testing asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals on the sixth to eighth day of infection. For the delta variant, or other variants of much higher infectivity, contact tracing alone cannot significantly lower the number of daily new cases but is able to delay the peaks greatly, thus affording more time to explore and implement pharmaceutical interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Contact tracing can be a very powerful tool to combat COVID-19 caused by the original strain or any variant of SARS-CoV-2. In order to make contact tracing effective, every effort is needed to expand the pool of contact tracing and provide all necessary support to the self-quarantined.

Transient Electromagnetic Processes Analysis in High Voltage Transmission Lines during Two-Phase Short Circuits.

The mathematical model of a fragment of a high-voltage electric network is developed in this paper. The network consists of a long power line with distributed parameters and an equivalent three-phase active-inductive load. Neumann and Robin-Poincare boundary conditions were used to identify the boundary conditions for the long line equation. The parameter output voltage (voltage at the end of the line) is introduced into the paper for further universal use of the developed line model. On the basis of the developed mathematical model, the program code is written in the algorithmic language Visual Fortran. By means of it, oscillograms of transient electromagnetic processes of voltages and currents in the form of spatial, temporal and temporal-spatial distributions during remote two-phase short circuits in the transmission line of high voltage are obtained. Two transient electromagnetic processes are analyzed in the present work. The first one was analyzed during the switching on of the line to the normal mode of operation with the subsequent transition to the emergency mode. The second one was analyzed during the switching on the line in the mode of a remote two-phase short circuit to the ground. The results of transient electromagnetic process simulation in the form of analyzed figures are shown. All the results presented in this paper were obtained exclusively using numerical methods.

Comprehensive Simulation of Ca2+ Transients in the Continuum of Mouse Skeletal Muscle Fiber Types.

Mag-Fluo-4 has revealed differences in the kinetics of the Ca2+ transients of mammalian fiber types (I, IIA, IIX, and IIB). We simulated the changes in [Ca2+] through the sarcomere of these four fiber types, considering classical (troponin -Tn-, parvalbumin -Pv-, adenosine triphosphate -ATP-, sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ pump -SERCA-, and dye) and new (mitochondria -MITO-, Na+/Ca2+ exchanger -NCX-, and store-operated calcium entry -SOCE-) Ca2+ binding sites, during single and tetanic stimulation. We found that during a single twitch, the sarcoplasmic peak [Ca2+] for fibers type IIB and IIX was around 16 µM, and for fibers type I and IIA reached 10-13 µM. The release rate in fibers type I, IIA, IIX, and IIB was 64.8, 153.6, 238.8, and 244.5 µM ms-1, respectively. Both the pattern of change and the peak concentrations of the Ca2+-bound species in the sarcoplasm (Tn, PV, ATP, and dye), the sarcolemma (NCX, SOCE), and the SR (SERCA) showed the order IIB ≥ IIX > IIA > I. The capacity of the NCX was 2.5, 1.3, 0.9, and 0.8% of the capacity of SERCA, for fibers type I, IIA, IIX, and IIB, respectively. MITO peak [Ca2+] ranged from 0.93 to 0.23 µM, in fibers type I and IIB, respectively, while intermediate values were obtained in fibers IIA and IIX. The latter numbers doubled during tetanic stimulation. In conclusion, we presented a comprehensive mathematical model of the excitation-contraction coupling that integrated most classical and novel Ca2+ handling mechanisms, overcoming the limitations of the fast- vs. slow-fibers dichotomy and the use of slow dyes.

Regularities of Structure Formation in 30 mm Rods of Thermoelectric Material during Hot Extrusion.

In this study, Ingots of (Bi, Sb)2Te3 thermoelectric material with p-type conductivity have been obtained by hot extrusion. The main regularities of hot extrusion of 30 mm rods have been analyzed with the aid of a mathematical simulation on the basis of the joint use of elastic-plastic body approximations. The phase composition, texture and microstructure of the (Bi, Sb)2Te3 solid solutions have been studied using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. The thermoelectric properties have been studied using the Harman method. We show that extrusion through a 30 mm diameter die produces a homogeneous strain. The extruded specimens exhibit a fine-grained structure and a clear axial texture in which the cleavage planes are parallel to the extrusion axis. The quantity of defects in the grains of the (Bi, Sb)2Te3 thermoelectric material decreases with an increase in the extrusion rate. An increase in the extrusion temperature leads to a decrease in the Seebeck coefficient and an increase in the electrical conductivity. The specimens extruded at 450 °C and a 0.5 mm/min extrusion rate have the highest thermoelectric figure of merit (Z = 3.2 × 10-3 K-1).

A simulated strategy for analysis of Short- to Long- chain fatty acids in mouse serum beyond chemical standards.

Broadening coverage in fatty acid (FA) analysis benefits the understanding of metabolic regulation in biological system. However, the limited access of chemical standards makes it challenging. In this work, we introduced a simulation assisted strategy to analyze short-, medium-, long- and very-long-chain fatty acids beyond the use of chemical standards. This targeted analysis in selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode incorporated 3-nitrophenylhydrazine derivatization and mathematical simulation of ion transitions, collision energies, RF values and retention times to identify and quantify the fatty acids without chemical standards. Serum analysis using high resolution mass spectrometry coupled with paired labeling was employed to refine the computational retention times. Based on the simulation, 116 free fatty acids from C1 to C24 were covered in a single analysis on use of 34 standard chemicals. Background interference is commonly observed in fatty acid analysis. For certain fatty acids, e.g. acetic acid or palmitic acid, reliable quantitation is largely restricted by contamination level instead of detection limit. Therefore, the background interference and quantifiable serum volume required for each fatty acid were also evaluated. At least 20 µL serum was suggested to cover most molecules. Using this approach, a total of 66 free fatty acids with various chain lengths and saturations were detected in NTCP knockout mice serum, of which 34 FAs were confirmed by chemical standards and 32 FAs were potentially assigned based on the simulation. Gender dependent fatty acid regulation was observed by NTCP knockout. This work provides a unique strategy that enables to broaden the fatty acid coverage with the absence of chemical standards and is applicable to other derivatizations.

Study of the oil geopermeation patterns: A case study of ANSYS CFX software application for computer modeling.

Mathematical simulation of oil permeation through the porous media is the crucial topical problem in the framework of localization and liquidation of emergency oil spills. The main objective of this study was to establish the oil contamination level and oil contamination depth for different soil types which is of particular relevance from the standpoint of environmental safety. Four types of soils were taken for investigation as follows Cambisol with sand texture (No. 1), Luvisol (gray forest), with loamy sand texture (No. 2), Black Typical Chernozem with sandy loam texture (No. 3), Kastanozem (pine forest terrace under the pines) with sand texture (No. 4). The task of predicting the temporal-spatial indicators of oil permeation in the soil during accidental spills was solved using ANSYS CFX software allowing to simulate the absorption amount of oil into the ground. Visualization of oil concentration and velocity for studied soil samples was carried out. Determination of petroleum hydrocarbons concentration by the gravimetric method indicated a direct correlation between oil content in the soil and the porosity of the investigated soil samples. In order to determine the rate of hydrocarbon permeation through the dry and wet soil layer comparative experiments were carried out for the following systems: oil - dry soil and oil - wet soil. Permeation coefficients for dry samples from No. 1 to No. 4 were set at the rate 0.0073 m ∙ day-1, 0.0077 m ∙ day-1, 0.0083 m ∙ day-1, 0.0067 m ∙ day-1 respectively, and for wet soils 0.0083 m ∙ day-1, 0.0093 m ∙ day-1, 0.0093 m ∙ day-1, 0.0083 m ∙ day-1 consequently. The obtained hydrocarbon permeation coefficients for different systems allow calculating the depth of oil penetration for a given time after the spill, taking into account soil moisture. The dependence of oil concentration and permeation rate distribution through the soil fully reflects reliability of the experimental data, thereby confirming the verification of the adequacy of the computer model based on the ANSYS CFX software.

Electroporation-enhanced transdermal drug delivery: Effects of logP, pKa, solubility and penetration time.

Electroporation is an important physical technique to improve drug transdermal delivery, although its mechanism remains unclear. Here, some types of polar drugs, including aspirin, diclofenac sodium, metformin hydrochloride, ibuprofen and zidovudine, were used as the model drugs for the exploration of electroporation mechanisms. Electroporation had great influences on the structure of stratum corneum to improve the cumulative permeability due to the formation of pores maintaining for at least 2 h, depending on the power and time, and then the permeation gradually recovered to the normal value after 12 h. A mathematical model was firstly established to exhibit the relationship between the electroporation-improving cumulative permeation and the physiochemical properties of the model drugs, involving oil-water partition coefficient (logP), dissociation constant (pKa) and solubility (S). Increased cumulative permeation depended on increased S, decreased logP and pKa. Electroporation is an effective physical technique to improve transdermal drug delivery depending on itself and the properties of drugs.

Teaching cardiac excitation-contraction coupling using a mathematical computer simulation model of human ventricular myocytes.

To understand the excitation-contraction (E-C) coupling of cardiomyocytes, including the electrophysiological mechanism of their characteristically long action potential duration, is one of the major learning goals in medical physiology. However, the integrative interpretation of the responses occurring during the contraction-relaxation cycle is challenging due to the dynamic interaction of underlying factors. Starting in 2017, we adopted the mathematical computer simulation model of human ventricular myocyte (Cardiac E-C_Sim), hypothesizing that this educational technology may facilitate students' learning of cardiac physiology. Here, we describe the overall process for the educational application of Cardiac E-C_Sim in the human physiology practicum of Seoul National University College of Medicine. We also report the results from questionnaires covering detailed assessment of the practicum class. The analysis of results and feedback opinions enabled us to understand how the students had approached the problem-solving process. As a whole, the students could better accomplish the learning goals using Cardiac E-C_Sim, followed by constructive discussions on the complex and dynamic mechanisms of cardiac E-C coupling. We suggest that the combined approach of lecture-based teaching and computer simulations guided by a manual containing clinical context would be broadly applicable in physiology education.

The underlying mechanism in gel formation and its mathematical simulation during anionic polyacrylamide solution ultrafiltration process.

A dead-end ultrafiltration cup was continuously operated to investigate the underlying mechanisms of membrane fouling caused by gel layer in this paper. Anionic polyacrylamide was used as a model foulant for gel formation process in various ultrafiltration processes by two kinds of ultrafiltration membrane, e.g., polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) membrane (OM) and TiO2/Al2O3-PVDF membrane (MM); then, a gel formation model was established and systematically assessed. The results show that the gel formation process in ultrafiltration can be divided into three stages: "slow-rapid-slow" flux decay curve. The R2 value of the simulation curve was still higher than 0.90 for both OM and MM. Based on the current cognition, the proposed gel layer formation mechanism and mathematical model were feasible.

Clustering of Thrombin Generation Test Data Using a Reduced Mathematical Model of Blood Coagulation.

Correct interpretation of the data from integral laboratory tests, including Thrombin Generation Test (TGT), requires biochemistry-based mathematical models of blood coagulation. The purpose of this study is to describe the experimental TGT data from healthy donors and hemophilia A (HA) and B (HB) patients. We derive a simplified ODE model and apply it to analyze the TGT data from healthy donors and HA/HB patients with in vitro added tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI) antibody. This model allows the characterization of hemophilia patients in the space of three most important model parameters. The proposed approach may provide a new quantitative tool for the analysis of experimental TGT. Also, it gives a reduced model of coagulation verified against clinical data to be used in future theoretical large-scale modeling of thrombosis in flow.

Impact of implementing pathogen reduction technologies for platelets on reducing outdates.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Applying pathogen reduction technologies (PRT) to platelets can extend their shelf life from 5 to 7 days, but there have been few systematic studies of the repercussions of such technologies on outdate rates. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The benefits in terms of outdate rates of applying PRT to platelets are studied via a mathematical simulation. Specifically, statistical methods are used to determine the daily production rate needed to meet demand while not exceeding a maximum amount set as a result of limitations on donations and while assuring a minimum daily stock. RESULTS: The results show that a 2-day extension in the shelf life of platelet concentrates (PC) results in reductions in outdates ranging from 88·4% to 100% at the production centres analysed. It may be the case for budgetary reasons that only part of the PCs produced can be treated. This being so, we show that if the proportion treated per annum exceeds 25% the best option is to treat part of the output every day, otherwise, it is preferable to concentrate treatment on the last two production days of the week. CONCLUSIONS: Extending the shelf life of PC from five to seven days and setting up suitable production logistics can drastically reduce outdates at production centres. If only a part of all PCs is treated, the best choices are to distribute PRT overall production days or, if the percentage of PCs treated is very low, to apply PRT on the days preceding the weekend break.

High Genetic Diversity With Weak Phylogeographic Structure of the Invasive Spartina alterniflora (Poaceae) in China.

Biological invasion represents a global issue of concern due to its large negative impacts on native ecosystems and society. Elucidating the evolutionary history and genetic basis underpinning invasiveness is critical to understanding how alien species invade and adapt to novel environments. Smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora, 2n = 6x = 62) is a notorious invasive species that causes heavily negative effects on native ecosystems worldwide. Here we addressed the evolutionary mechanisms underlying the invasion and dispersal history of this species along the China coast in the past decades. We employed nine microsatellites and three chloroplast fragments to investigate phylogeographic structure and genetic diversity of 11 native US and 11 invasive Chinese S. alterniflora populations. Demographic history simulation was also performed for both the native and invasive populations, respectively. Comparative genetic analyses of these natural populations revealed that although all the Chinese populations were introduced only once, high level of genetic diversity with weak geographic structure was observed. In particular, both the genetic features and mathematical simulation illustrated very recent population expansion in the Chinese populations. We found that genetic variants identified in native US populations were mixed in the Chinese populations, suggesting the recombination of these original variants during the invasion process. These genetic attributes indicate that Chinese populations might not have experienced a genetic bottleneck during the invasion process. High genetic diversity and genetic admixture might have contributed to the success of invasion of S. alterniflora in China. Our study provides a framework of how the smooth cordgrass spreads along the China coast as well as its potential genetic mechanisms underlying the invasion.

The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human.

BACKGROUND: The 122 years and 164 days age claim of Jeanne Calment, the world oldest person who died in 1997, is the most thoroughly validated age claim. Recently the claim that families Calment and Billot organized a conspiracy concerning tax fraud based on identity fraud between mother and daughter gained international media attention. METHODS: Here, we reference the original components of the validation as well as additional documentation to address various claims of the conspiracy theory and provide evidence for why these claims are based on inaccurate facts or unrelated to the death of Yvonne Billot-Calment, the daughter of Jeanne Calment, in 1934. RESULTS: Also, countering the contention that the occurrence of a 122 year old person is statistically impossible, mathematical models are presented which also supports the hypothesis that though extremely rare, as would be expected for the oldest person ever, Jeanne Calment's age claim is plausible. CONCLUSIONS: In total, the quality of the investigation supporting the claim of conspiracy as well as the mathematical analysis aiming to back it do not reach the level expected for a scientific publication.

An Alternative Mathematical Modeling Approach to Estimating a Reference Life Expectancy.

Background. Reference life expectancies inform frequently used health metrics, which play an integral role in determining resource allocation and health policy decision making. Existing reference life expectancies are not able to account for variation in geographies, populations, and disease states. Using a computer simulation, we developed a reference life expectancy estimation that considers competing causes of mortality, and is tailored to population characteristics. Methods. We developed a Monte Carlo microsimulation model that explicitly represented the top causes of US mortality in 2014 and the risk factors associated with their onset. The microsimulation follows a birth cohort of hypothetical individuals resembling the population of the United States. To estimate a reference life expectancy, we compared current circumstances with an idealized scenario in which all modifiable risk factors were eliminated and adherence to evidence-based therapies was perfect. We compared estimations of years of potential years life lost with alternative approaches. Results. In the idealized scenario, we estimated that overall life expectancy in the United States would increase by 5.9 years to 84.7 years. Life expectancy for men would increase from 76.4 years to 82.5 years, and life expectancy for women would increase from 81.3 years to 86.8 years. Using age-75 truncation to estimate potential years life lost compared to using the idealized life expectancy underestimated potential health gains overall (38%), disproportionately underestimated potential health gains for women (by 70%) compared to men (by 40%), and disproportionately underestimated the importance of heart disease for white women and black men. Conclusion. Mathematical simulations can be used to estimate an idealized reference life expectancy among a population to better inform and assess progress toward targets to improve population health.