Impact of short-term exposure to air pollution on natural mortality and vulnerable populations: a multi-city case-crossover analysis in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: The adverse effect of air pollution on mortality is well documented worldwide but the identification of more vulnerable populations at higher risk of death is still limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between natural mortality (overall and cause-specific) and short-term exposure to five air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3 and black carbon) and identify potential vulnerable populations in Belgium. METHODS: We used a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions to assess the relationship between mortality and air pollution in the nine largest Belgian agglomerations. Then, we performed a random-effect meta-analysis of the pooled results and described the global air pollution-mortality association. We carried out stratified analyses by individual characteristics (sex, age, employment, hospitalization days and chronic preexisting health conditions), living environment (levels of population density, built-up areas) and season of death to identify effect modifiers of the association. RESULTS: The study included 304,754 natural deaths registered between 2010 and 2015. We found percentage increases for overall natural mortality associated with 10 µg/m3 increases of air pollution levels of 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.0%) for PM2.5, 0.4% (0.1%, 0.8%) for PM10, 0.5% (-0.2%, 1.1%) for O3, 1.0% (0.3%, 1.7%) for NO2 and 7.1% (-0.1%, 14.8%) for black carbon. There was also evidence for increases of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. We did not find effect modification by individual characteristics (sex, age, employment, hospitalization days). However, this study suggested differences in risk of death for people with preexisting conditions (thrombosis, cardiovascular diseases, asthma, diabetes and thyroid affections), season of death (May-September vs October-April) and levels of built-up area in the neighborhood (for NO2). CONCLUSIONS: This work provided evidence for the adverse health effects of air pollution and contributed to the identification of specific population groups. These findings can help to better define public-health interventions and prevention strategies.

Uncertainties regarding the natural mortality of fish can increase due global climate change.

The increase in temperature resulting from global climate change can directly affect the survival of fish and therefore population parameters such as natural mortality (M). The estimation of this parameter and the understanding of the uncertainties in its estimates are enormous challenges for studies that evaluate fish stocks. In addition, the effects of increases in temperature may be associated with life strategies. Therefore, the fuzzy set theory was used to evaluate the effects of temperature increase on the natural mortality of fish, considering different life strategies. The model showed that the increase in temperature increased the uncertainties in M estimates for all species, regardless of the life strategy. However, opportunistic species present greater uncertainties in estimates of M compared to equilibrium species. The patterns found in uncertainties of M associated with species groupings by life strategies can be used in holistic approaches for the assessment and management of recently exploited fisheries resources or for those with limited biological data.

The trade-off between condition and growth shapes juveniles' survival of harvested demersal fish of the Mediterranean sea.

Fish body condition and growth are two interrelated traits closely associated with species life history and fitness, whose trade-off can ultimately impact population dynamics albeit seldom empirically demonstrated. They can intricately affect survival rates, which are particularly relevant for species under exploitation. Using individual spatiotemporal information in Northwestern Mediterranean, we document for the first time the existence of a trade-off between condition and growth in regulating survival dynamics in two important fish species for the Mediterranean fisheries that are characterized by contrasting life histories. For the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), a benthopelagic species, juveniles' body condition was detected to be positively linked to survival and negatively associated with the growth of this age group. For the red mullet (Mullus barbatus), the same pattern was observed for young adults. We also show that the observed patterns on a regional level have a clear spatial dependence as we found that observed body condition over a local scale had a broad effect on the population dynamics of the whole region, with the Ebro delta area emerging as the demographic engine of the two species. We discuss our results in the context of fisheries management and underline the importance of improving current stock assessment models and spatially based fishery management towards incorporating body condition and growth due to their influence on important parameters such as survival.

Estimation of life history parameters for river catfish Eutropiichthys vacha: insights from multi-models for sustainable management.

The river catfish, Eutropiichthys vacha is a vital protein source for rural communities and has high commercial value, but understanding its life history and management strategies reveals major inadequacies and ambiguities in the riverine ecosystems. Consequently, this study employs multi-models to analyze the life history parameters of E. vacha in the Ganges River (northwestern Bangladesh) from January to December, 2020. The total length (TL) and body weight (BW) of 362 individuals (male = 170, female = 192) were measured by a measuring board and a digital weighing balance, respectively. The overall sex ratio (male: female) was 1.0: 1.13 and did not oscillate statistically from the standard 1:1 ratio (p > 0.05). The TL varied from 6.7-19.2 cm for males and 6.3-19.0 cm for females. The length-frequency distributions (LFDs) revealed females outnumbered in 8.0-9.99 cm TL whereas males in 7.0-7.99 cm TL. The slope (b) of the length-weight relationship (TL vs. BW) for both sexes (b = 2.87) was substantially lower than isometry, specifying negative allometric growth pattern for E. vacha. Sex-specific relative (K R ) and Fulton's (K F ) condition analysis revealed better state of well-being of males than females. Only K F exhibited significant correlation with both BW and TL, hence making it ideal condition for predicting the fitness of E. vacha in this river. Moreover, the relative weight (W R ) suggests an imbalanced habitat for females with higher abundance of predators but suitable for males. The form factor (a 3.0 ) was 0.0062 and 0.0065, whereas the size at first maturity (L m ) and mean natural mortality (M W ) were 11.38 and 11.27 cm TL and 1.29 and 1.28 year-1 for the respective sexes. Besides, the calculated mean optimum catchable length (L opt ) was 13.58 and 13.09 cm TL for each sex. These findings will be crucial for further studies and to recommend appropriate strategy for the sustainable management of E. vacha in the Ganges River and adjacent watersheds.

Population biological traits of Periophthalmus chrysospilos Bleeker, 1853 in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.

Periophthalmus chrysospilos is an amphibious fish living in mudflats from eastern India to Indonesia, including the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Population biological traits play an important role in fishery assessment, but understanding is limited for this species. In total 1,031 specimens were caught in two regions covering four provinces, including the TVST (Duyen Hai, Tra Vinh and Tran De, Soc Trang) and BLCM (Dong Hai, Bac Lieu and Dam Doi, Ca Mau). Results found that the sex ratio was close to 1:1. The parameters of the von Bertalanffy in TVST were L∞ = 12.8 cm, K = 0.41 yr-1, t0 = -0.10 yr and in BLCM were 12.7 cm, 0.38 yr-1 and -0.08 yr, respectively. Although the growth coefficient (Φ') in BLCM (1.79), was lower than that in TVST (1.83), the species shared a similar size at first capture (7.9 cm in TVST and 7.9 cm in BLCM). The species suffered from heavy pressure of fishing in TVST as fishing mortality in TVST (2.32 yr-1) was higher than that in BLCM (1.38 yr-1), leading to the higher total mortality (Z = 3.60 yr-1) in TVST compared to BLCM (Z = 2.59 yr-1). By contrast, the species showed similar natural mortality over both sites (1.20 yr-1 in TVST and 1.22 yr-1 in BLCM). The Periophthalmus chrysospilos population was reasonably exploited because E values (0.64 in TVST and 0.53 in BLCM) were lower than E10 (0.706 in BTTV and 0.705 in STBL). Nonetheless, to avoid the consequences of overfishing, some sustainable fisheries practices should be implemented, such as protecting mangrove forests, restricting fishing during the recruitment period, using appropriate fishing tools and increasing mesh size.

The impact of extreme temperatures on human mortality in the most populated cities of Romania.

The impact of extreme weather conditions on humans is one of the most important topics in biometeorology studies. The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between temperature-related weather conditions and natural mortality in the five most populated cities of Romania, namely, Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca, Constanța, Iași, and Timișoara. The results of this study aim to bridge a gap in national research. In the present paper, we used daily natural mortality data and daily minimum and maximum air temperatures. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) allowed us to identify weather conditions associated with natural mortality. The most important results are as follows: (i) a higher daily mortality is related to a high frequency of heat stress conditions; (ii) a higher maximum temperature increases the relative risk (RR) of natural mortality; (iii) the maximum number of fatalities is recorded on the first day of high-temperature events; and (iv) individuals much more easily adapt to cold stress conditions. The main conclusion in this study is that the inhabitants of the most populated cities in Romania are more sensitive to high-temperature stress than to low-temperature stress.

Exceptional longevity in a lightly exploited, semi-anadromous clupeid (Perth herring Nematalosa vlaminghi) within a degraded estuarine environment.

Many anadromous (and semi-anadromous) fish species, which migrate from marine to freshwater ecosystems to spawn and to complete their life cycle, are currently threatened by habitat degradation in the upper parts of estuaries and rivers, where spawning and juvenile nursery areas occur. This situation pertains to Nematalosa vlaminghi, a semi-anadromous gizzard shad (Clupeidae: Dorosomatinae) endemic to south-western Australia. More information on the biology of N. vlaminghi is required for its effective management and conservation. This study estimated growth, longevity and natural mortality of N. vlaminghi. Ages were determined by counting validated annual growth increments in thin sections of sagittal otoliths. Fish were sampled in the Swan-Canning Estuary, which historically hosted the main commercial fishery for N. vlaminghi. Since the late 1990s, however, only very minor catches of this species have been taken from this estuary and none since 2007. Given the essentially unexploited state of the current population, the estimate of total mortality (Z, y-1 ) from the catch curve analysis in this study provides a direct estimate of natural mortality (M, y-1 ) for N. vlaminghi. Somatic growth during this study was substantially slower than that historically reported for N. vlaminghi. Various processes operating in this estuary since the 1970s may have contributed to slower growth, including increased hypoxia, higher primary productivity due to eutrophication and cessation of fishing for N. vlaminghi. The maximum observed age of 19.8 years for N. vlaminghi is the highest reported for any gizzard shad globally and one of the highest reported for any clupeid species. This exceptional longevity is likely part of a life-history strategy that allows N. vlaminghi, which exhibits substantial variation in annual recruitment success, to persist in the intermittently closed estuaries of south-western Australia where environmental factors, including low flow and hypoxia, can create unfavourable conditions for reproduction for extended periods.

Long-term exposure to fine particle elemental components and mortality in Europe: Results from six European administrative cohorts within the ELAPSE project.

Evidence for the association between long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter components and mortality from natural causes is sparse and inconsistent. We evaluated this association in six large administrative cohorts in the framework of the Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) project. We analyzed data from country-wide administrative cohorts in Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland and in Rome (Italy). Annual 2010 mean concentrations of copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn) in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were estimated using 100 × 100 m Europe-wide hybrid land use regression models assigned to the participants' residential addresses. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard models controlling for area- and individual-level covariates to evaluate associations with natural mortality. Two pollutant models adjusting for PM2.5 total mass or nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were also applied. We pooled cohort-specific estimates using a random effects meta-analysis. We included almost 27 million participants contributing more than 240 million person-years. All components except Zn were significantly associated with natural mortality [pooled Hazard Ratios (HRs) (95% CI): 1.037 (1.014, 1.060) per 5 ng/m3 Cu; 1.069 (1.031, 1.108) per 100 ng/m3 Fe; 1.039 (1.018, 1.062) per 50 ng/m3 K; 1.024 (1.006, 1.043) per 1 ng/m3 Ni; 1.036 (1.016, 1.057) per 200 ng/m3 S; 1.152 (1.048, 1.266) per 100 ng/m3 Si; 1.020 (1.006, 1.034) per 2 ng/m3 V]. Only K and Si were robust to PM2.5 or NO2 adjustment [pooled HRs (95% CI) per 50 ng/m3 in K: 1.025 (1.008, 1.044), 1.020 (0.999, 1.042) and per 100 ng/m3 in Si: 1.121 (1.039, 1.209), 1.068 (1.022, 1.117) adjusted for PM2.5 and NO2 correspondingly]. Our findings indicate an association of natural mortality with most components, which was reduced after adjustment for PM2.5 and especially NO2.

Is starvation a cause of overmortality of the Mediterranean sardine?

Animal mortality is difficult to observe in marine systems, preventing a mechanistic understanding of major drivers of fish population dynamics. In particular, starvation is known to be a major cause of mortality at larval stages, but adult mortality is often unknown. In this study, we used a laboratory food-deprivation experiment, on wild caught sardine Sardina pilchardus from the Gulf of Lions. This population is interesting because mean individual phenotype shifted around 2008, becoming dominated by small, young individuals in poor body condition, a phenomenon that may result from declines in energy availability. Continuous monitoring of body mass loss and metabolic rate in 78 captive food-deprived individuals revealed that sardines could survive for up to 57 days on body reserves. Sardines submitted to long-term caloric restriction prior to food-deprivation displayed adaptive phenotypic plasticity, reducing metabolic energy expenditure and enduring starvation for longer than sardines that had not been calorie-restricted. Overall, entry into critical fasting phase 3 occurred at a body condition of 0.72. Such a degree of leanness has rarely been observed over 34 years of wild population monitoring. Still, the proportion of sardines below this threshold has doubled since 2008 and is maximal in January and February (the peak of the reproductive season), now reaching almost 10 % of the population at that time. These results indicate that the demographic changes observed in the wild may result in part from starvation-related adult mortality at the end of the winter reproductive period, despite adaptive plastic responses.

Disentangling drivers of power line use by vultures: Potential to reduce electrocutions.

Accidents on power lines are the leading cause of mortality for many raptor species. In order to prioritise corrective measures, much effort has been focused on identifying the factors associated with collision and electrocution risk. However, most studies lack of precise data about the use of pylons and its underlying driving factors, often relying on biased information based on recorded fatalities. Here, we used multiple years of high-resolution data from 49-GPS tagged Canarian Egyptian Vultures (Neophron percnopterus majorensis) to overcome these typical biases. Birds of our target population use electric pylons extensively for perching (diurnal) and roosting (nocturnal), so accidents with these infrastructures are nowadays the main cause of mortality. Predictive models of pylon intensity of use were fitted for diurnal and nocturnal behaviour, accounting for power line, environmental, and individual vulture's features. Using these measures as a proxy for mortality risk, our model predictions were validated with out-of-sample data of actual mortality recorded during 17 years. Vultures used more pylons during daytime, but those chosen at night were used more intensively. In both time periods, the intensity of use of pylons was determined by similar drivers: vultures avoided pylons close to roads and territories of conspecifics, preferentially used pylons located in areas with higher abundance of food resources, and spread their use during the breeding season. Individuals used pylons unevenly according to their sex, age, and territorial status, indicating that site-specific mitigation measures may affect different fractions of the population. Our modelling procedures predicted actual mortality reasonably well, showing that prioritising mitigation measures on relatively few pylons (6%) could drastically reduce accidents (50%). Our findings demonstrate that combining knowledge on fine-scale individual behaviour and pylon type and distribution is key to target cost-effective conservation actions aimed at effectively reducing avian mortality on power lines.

The changing times of Europe's largest remaining commercially harvested population of eel Anguilla anguilla L.

This study quantifies the processes involved in regulating the European eel population of Lough Neagh, a lake in Northern Ireland. The relationship between glass eel input and silver eel output for the 1923-1997 cohorts was best described by a Beverton-Holt stock recruitment model. Glass eel input time series was not complete and was thus derived from the relationship between catches elsewhere in Europe and Lough Neagh, together with the addition of stocked glass eel. Silver eel output was the sum of silver eel escapement, catch and yellow eel catch converted to silver eel equivalents. Natural mortality increased with glass eel density, ranging from 0.017 to 0.142 year-1 . The mean carrying capacity increased from ≈3.25 M silver eels (≈26 kg ha-1 ) for the 1923-1943 cohorts to ≈5.0 M (≈40 kg ha-1 ) for the 1948-1971 cohorts before regressing back to ≈3.25 M. The total silver eel output was highest during the late 1970s/early 1980s at 35-45 kg ha-1  year-1 and lowest during the early years of the 20th century and is currently at 10-15 kg ha-1  year-1 . The findings are discussed in relation to (a) the ecological changes that have occurred within the lough, associated with eutrophication and the introduction of roach (Rutilus rutilus L.), and (b) the decline of the wider European eel stock across its distribution range. The findings from this study have relevance for the wider management of the European eel stock.

Improving the gnomonic approach with the gnomonicM R-package to estimate natural mortality throughout different life stages.

Natural mortality (M) is defined as the rate of loss that occurs in a fish stock due to natural (non-fishing) causes and can be influenced by density-dependent or density-independent factors. Different methods have been used to estimate M, one of these is the gnomonic approach. This method estimates M rates by dividing the life cycle of a species into subunits of time that increase as a constant proportion of the time elapsed from birth up to the initiation of each subdivision. In this study, an improved gnomonic approach is proposed to estimate natural mortality throughout different life stages in marine stocks using the gnomonicM package written in R software. This package was built to require data about (i) the number of gnomonic intervals, (ii) egg stage duration, (iii) longevity, and (iv) fecundity. With this information, it is possible to estimate the duration and natural mortality (Mi) of each gnomonic interval. The gnomonicM package uses a deterministic or stochastic approach, the latter of which assesses variability in M by assuming that the mean lifetime fecundity (MLF) is the main source of uncertainty. Additionally, the gnomonicM package allows the incorporation of auxiliary information related to the observed temporal durations of specific gnomonic intervals, which is useful for calibrating estimates of M vectors. The gnomonicM package, tested via deterministic and stochastic functions, was supported by the reproducibility and verification of the results obtained from different reports, thus guaranteeing its functionality, applicability, and performance in estimating M for different ontogenetic developmental stages. Based on the biological information of Pacific chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), we presented a new case study to provide a comprehensive guide to data collection to obtain results and explain the details of the application of the gnomonicM package and avoid its misuse. This package could provide an alternative approach for estimating M and provide basic input data for ecological models, allowing the option of using estimates of variable natural mortality across different ages, mainly for life stages affected by fishing. The inputs for the gnomonicM packages are composed of numbers, vectors, or characters depending on whether the deterministic or stochastic approach is used, making the package quick, flexible, and easy to use; this allows users to focus on obtaining and interpreting results rather than the calculation process.

Investigating the Natural Mortality of Aphis gossypii (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on Cotton Crops in Tropical Regions Using Ecological Life Tables.

Studies on the natural factors contributing to pest regulation are fundamental to developing efficient integrated pest management programs. Chemical control is the main management method used for pests [e.g., Aphis gossypii (Glover)]. The studies of pest management with chemical control provide information that can be incorporated into integrated pest management programs to promote more sustainable pest control approaches. Here, we report the critical stages of A. gossypii and its abiotic and biotic natural mortality factors in cotton crops as a function of plant phenology using a life table. The critical stages of A. gossypii were the first and fourth instars. Together, the abiotic and biotic factors caused 94.31% of the mortality in the A. gossypii populations in cotton crops with plants in the vegetative, flowering, and fruiting stages. The key mortality factors were rainfall and predation. Syrphidae Allograpta exotica (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Syrphidae) and Chrysopidae Chrysoperla externa (Hagen) (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) larvae, many Coccinellidae species Cycloneda sanguinea (L.) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), Eriopsis connexa (Germar) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), Hippodamia convergens (Guérin-Meneville) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), Scymnus rubicundus (Erichson) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) and Stethorus punctillum (Weise) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), one Anthocoridae species Orius insidiosus (Say) (Hemiptera: Anthocoridae), and individuals from the Araneidae family were responsible for the predation of A. gossypii. The results obtained in this study provide support for the idea that efforts to preserve natural enemies (e.g., predators) and rainfall monitoring should be adapted due to their importance for the regulation of A. gossypii populations in all the phenological stages of cotton in tropical regions.

Effects of pollution, low temperature and influenza syndrome on the excess mortality risk in 2016-2017.

BACKGROUND: In the winter of 2016-2017, the number of deaths recorded in the north-west Europe was significantly higher than that in previous years. This spike in mortality was attributed principally to an influenza epidemic, but the contribution of air pollution and cold temperature has not been investigated. Information on the combined effect of low temperatures, influenza epidemic, and air pollution on mortality is inadequate. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess mortality in the winter of 2016-2017 in the metropolitan area of Milan, and to evaluate the independent short-term effect of 3 risk factors: low temperatures, the influenza epidemic, and air pollution. METHODS: We used a case-crossover, time-stratified study design. Mortality data were collected on all people aged > 65 years who died of natural causes, due to respiratory diseases or cardiovascular diseases, between December 1, 2016 and February 15, 2017. Environmental data were extracted from the Regional Environmental Protection Agency. The National Surveillance Network provided data on influenza epidemic. RESULTS: Among the 7590 natural deaths in people aged > 65 years, 965 (13%) were caused by respiratory conditions, and 2688 (35%) were caused by cardiovascular conditions. There were statistically significant associations between the minimum recorded temperature and deaths due to natural causes (OR = 0.966, 95% CI: 0.944-0.989), and cardiovascular conditions (OR = 0.961, 95% CI: 0.925-0.999). There were also statistically significant association between the influenza epidemic and deaths due to natural causes (OR = 1.198, 95% CI: 1.156-1.241), cardiovascular conditions (OR = 1.153, 95% CI: 1.088-1.223), and respiratory conditions (OR = 1.303, 95% CI: 1.166-1.456). High levels of PM10 (60 and 70 µg/m3) were associated with a statistically significant increase in natural and cause-specific mortality. There were statistically significant interactions between PM10 and influenza for cardiovascular-related mortality, and between influenza and temperature for deaths due to natural causes. CONCLUSIONS: Excess of mortality in Milan during winter 2016-2017 was associated with influenza epidemic and concomitant environmental exposures, specifically, the combined effect of air pollution and low temperatures. Policies mitigating the effects of environmental risk factors should be implemented to prevent future excess mortality.

Risk of extinction of a unique skate population due to predation by a recovering marine mammal.

Benefitting from reduced harvesting and an end to culling, many marine mammals are now recovering from past overexploitation. These recoveries represent important conservation successes but present a serious conservation problem when the recovering mammals are predators of species of conservation concern. Here, we examine the role of predation by recovering grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the near-extinction of a unique skate population in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) in Atlantic Canada. Winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) in the sGSL are distinct from winter skate elsewhere and may represent an endemic species. Their adult abundance has declined by 98% since 1980, and these skates are now detectable in only a small fraction of their former range. Population modeling indicates that the ongoing collapse of this population is due to increases in the natural mortality of adults. Based on model projections, this population would be extinct by mid-century if its current rate of productivity were to persist. A second population model incorporated predation by grey seals. Model estimates of skate consumption by seals were consistent with historical and recent estimates of the contribution of skates to grey seal diets. The estimated consumption accounted for the increases in the natural mortality of adult skates. A Type III functional response for grey seals preying on winter skate emerged from the model results. This indicates that, when skate abundance is very low, grey seals are expected to switch to alternate prey, resulting in declines in the mortality of skates due to predation. Consequently, contrary to projections at current productivity, winter skate are expected to be trapped at very low abundance in a "predator pit" instead of declining to extinction. Nonetheless, extinction risk would remain very high at the very small population size in the predator pit. Our results emphasize the need for an ecosystem-based approach to the management of living resources in this ecosystem.

Survival analyses of Diaphorina citri immatures on young citrus orchard in São Paulo, Brazil / Análises de sobrevivência de imaturos de Diaphorina citri em pomar jovem de citros em São Paulo, Brasil

The survival of eggs and nymphs of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) was estimated on young plants (< 1 year) of Citrus sinensis (cultivar Valencia) grafted on Citrus limonia in 3 seasons (Winter and Spring 2013; and Autumn 2014) in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil. Young shoots with eggs were selected from natural or artificial infestations. Eggs, small nymphs (1st to 3rd instar), and large nymphs (4th and 5th instar) were counted every 3 days. Shoots with large nymphs were caged until the emergence of the adults. The lowest eggs and nymph survival were observed during Winter (0.0%), and Autumn (0.4%); the highest survival rates were recorded during Spring (12.2%). The biotic factor of mortality identified was the parasitism of large nymphs by Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), observed in all seasons. Air temperatures (minimum and maximum), and air relative humidity (minimum) could not explain the immature survival differences between Spring (12.2%) and Autumn (0.4%). Rainfall during Spring (165 mm) was higher than during Autumn (48 mm) and may have favored the survival of D. citri in the Spring. Adverse abiotic factors seem to be more important on immature D. citri survival than the biotic factor (parasitism).(AU)

A sobrevivência de ovos e ninfas de Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) foi estimada em plantas jovens (< 1 ano) de Citrus sinensis (cultivar Valencia) enxertadas em Citrus limonia em 3 estações (inverno e primavera de 2013, e outono de 2014) em Ribeirão Preto, estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Ramos novos com ovos foram selecionados a partir de infestações naturais ou artificiais. Ovos, ninfas pequenas (ínstar 1 ao 3) e ninfas grandes (ínstar 4 e 5) foram contados a cada 3 dias. Ramos com ninfas grandes foram colocados em gaiolas até a emergência dos adultos. As menores sobrevivências de ovos e ninfas foram observadas no inverno (0,0%) e no outono (0,4%), e a maior sobrevivência ocorreu na primavera (12,2%). O principal fator biótico de mortalidade identificado foi o parasitismo de ninfas grandes por Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), observado em todas as estações. As temperaturas (mínima e máxima) e umidade relativa (mínima) do ar não explicaram as diferenças nas sobrevivências de imaturos entre a primavera (12,2%) e o outono (0,4%). As chuvas na primavera (165 mm) foram maiores que no outono (48 mm) e podem ter favorecido a sobrevivência de D. citri na primavera. Fatores abióticos adversos parecem ser mais importantes na sobrevivência de imaturos de D. citri que o fator biótico (parasitismo).(AU)

Taxonomy-based hierarchical analysis of natural mortality: polar and subpolar phocid seals.

Knowledge of life-history parameters is frequently lacking in many species and populations, often because they are cryptic or logistically challenging to study, but also because life-history parameters can be difficult to estimate with adequate precision. We suggest using hierarchical Bayesian analysis (HBA) to analyze variation in life-history parameters among related species, with prior variance components representing shared taxonomy, phenotypic plasticity, and observation error. We develop such a framework to analyze U-shaped natural mortality patterns typical of mammalian life history from a variety of sparse datasets. Using 39 datasets from seals in the family Phocidae, we analyzed 16 models with different formulations for natural morality, specifically the amount of taxonomic and data-level variance components (subfamily, species, study, and dataset levels) included in mortality hazard parameters. The highest-ranked model according to DIC included subfamily-, species-, and dataset-level parameter variance components and resulted in typical U-shaped hazard functions for the 11 seal species in the study. Species with little data had survival schedules shrunken to the mean. We suggest that evolutionary and population ecologists consider employing HBA to quantify variation in life-history parameters. This approach can be useful for increasing the precision of estimates resulting from a collection of (often sparse) datasets, and for producing prior distributions for populations missing life-history data.

strandCet: R package for estimating natural and non-natural mortality-at-age of cetaceans from age-structured strandings.

Mortality is one of the most important parameters for the study of population dynamics. One of the main sources of information to calculate the mortality of cetaceans arises from the observed age-structure of stranded animals. A method based on an adaptation of a Heligman-Pollard model is proposed. A freely accessible package of functions (strandCet) has been created to apply this method in the statistical software R. Total, natural, and anthropogenic mortality-at-age is estimated using only data of stranded cetaceans whose age is known. Bayesian melding estimation with Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling is used for fitting this model. This characteristic, which accounts for uncertainty, further eases the estimation of credible intervals. The package also includes functions to perform life tables, Siler mortality models to calculate total mortality-at-age and Leslie matrices to derive population projections. Estimated mortalities can be tested under different scenarios. Population parameters as population growth, net production or generation time can be derived from population projections. The strandCet R package provides a new analytical framework to assess mortality in cetacean populations and to explore the consequences of management decisions using only stranding-derived data.

Studies on the growth and mortality of Indian River shad, Gudusia chapra (Hamilton, 1822) from Panchet reservoir, India.

The Indian river shad, Gudusia chapra (Hamilton, 1822), is a commercially important freshwater clupeid that contribute to the livelihood of subsistence and marginal fisheries in inland open waters of India and its adjacent countries. The present study was carried out on the growth and mortality of Indian River shad, Gudusia chapra (Hamilton, 1822) based on the commercial length-frequency data collected monthly during October 2014 to September 2015 of a large reservoir located in the border of Jharkhand and West Bengal. The ELEFAN-I (Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) module in FiSAT (FAO-ICLARM Stock Assessment Tools) was used for estimation of growth parameters (L∞, K). The total mortality was estimated following Pauly (ICLARM Fishbyte 2(1):9-13, Pauly 1983) whereas exploitation ratio and maximum sustainable yield were calculated following Gulland (1979). The asymptotic length (L∞) and growth coefficient (K) were estimated as 194 mm and 1.23 year-1, respectively. The species grows to 141.56 and 182.91 mm at the end of the 1st and 2nd years of life. The total natural and fishing mortalities were 6.63, 2.45 and 4.18 year-1 respectively. The value of growth performance index was 2.69. The exploitation ratio (E) was estimated as 0.63. As the exploitation ratio (E) is slightly beyond the optimum, there is likelihood of some threat of overexploitation. Though recruitment was continuous, major pulse was observed during April-May. The present investigation is a first report from Indian reservoir. The maximum sustainable yield of this species was estimated as 485.6 t against the present annual yield of 612.3 t. Avoiding overfishing and wise use of available resources are of prime importance for sustainable fishery management of the reservoir.

Prevalence of the pathogenic crustacean virus Callinectes sapidus reovirus 1 near flow-through blue crab aquaculture in Chesapeake Bay, USA.

Understanding the ecology of diseases is important to understanding variability in abundance, and therefore management, of marine animals exploited commercially. The blue crab Callinectes sapidus fills a crucial benthic-pelagic niche in Atlantic estuarine ecosystems and supports large commercial fisheries in both North and South America. In the USA, pre-molt blue crabs are typically held in short-term shedding (ecdysis) facilities to produce soft-shell crabs of increased value. However, mortality rates in these facilities are high and commonly associated with the pathogenic C. sapidus reovirus 1 (CsRV1). To assess whether crab mortalities in these facilities might increase CsRV1 prevalence in wild crab populations, tissue sampled from crabs collected over 2 summers either near to or far from shedding facilities using flow-through water systems were tested by reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) for the presence of CsRV1 RNA. In support of our hypothesis, PCR data identified the probability of detecting CsRV1 in wild crabs sampled close to shedding facilities to be 78% higher than in crabs sampled from far sites. PCR detections were also 61-72% more probable in male crabs and 21% more likely in male and female crabs over the minimum landing size. As the prevalence at which CsRV1 was detected varied within seasons, among locations and between years, blue crab migration and/or population fluctuations appear to also be involved.