Firearms and Extortions in Mexico, 2012 to 2021.

The study of firearm violence in Mexico has primarily focused on homicides and trafficking. Less attention has been given to understanding how firearms affect other crimes and facilitate criminal activity beyond drug markets. By analyzing two questions, this study explores the role of firearms in extortions perpetrated in Mexico from 2012 to 2021. Questions are: What is the likelihood of reporting extortions to the police if offenders exhibited firearms? What is the likelihood of compliance with demands when offenders are armed with firearms? We obtained data from Mexico's National Crime Victimization Surveys and analyzed 2,619 extortions reported from 2012 to 2021. To explore our research questions, we ran two binary logistic regressions. Our dependent variables were dichotomous (reported to police = 1, complied with demands = 1). The independent variables were weapon types (extortions involving firearms as the reference group). We controlled for victim demographics as well as crime characteristics. Our results indicate that 40% of these extortions (n = 1,058) were perpetrated with a firearm. Fifty-two percent of extortions were perpetrated by unarmed offenders (n = 1,348) and 8% (n = 213) were perpetrated with other weapons (no firearms). Models suggest that, when compared to extortions perpetrated by unarmed offenders or those exhibiting other weapons (no firearms), victims of extortions involving firearms are less likely to report these crimes to police, mainly because of fear of reprisal. Similarly, victims are more likely to comply with demands if offenders exhibit firearms. Findings highlight the role of firearms in criminal enterprises and support the need for a comprehensive policy agenda to address firearm violence in Mexico.

Unveiling the dynamics of sexual crimes in Colombia based on complaints over a decade / Desvelando la dinámica de los delitos sexuales en Colombia a partir de las denuncias de más de una década / Revelando a dinâmica de crimes sexuais na Colômbia, com sede em reclamações ao longo de uma década

The aim of this article was to analyse the dynamics of sexual offense reports in Colombia over the period between 2010 and 2022. For this, a mixed methodology was applied in the following phases: first, the Colombian National Police registry ­which included 286 604 sexual crimes reported in the aforementioned period­ was analysed. Then, a causal loop diagram of System Dynamics was designed to highlight the role of reporting sexual crimes in the Colombian Penal System. The main findings of this article include that 85.73 % of the complaints are mostly associated with women and 68 % of the victims are minors or adolescents of both sexes. It must be noted that Colombian legislation divides these crimes into those that are aggravated by violence and those that are not. It was also found that when the victim was a woman, the crimes occurred in a higher proportion with the aggravating factor of violence. It can also be concluded that during the COVID-19 pandemic confinement, there was a decrease in the number of sexual offense reports due to its negative effect on the possibility of adult women reporting crimes. In addition, it was found that it is imperative to direct the criminal policies towards the general positive prevention of sexual crimes, without instrumentalising individuals, and aimed at completing a detailed follow-up of complaints.

El objetivo de este artículo fue analizar la dinámica de las denuncias por delitos sexuales en Colombia en el periodo comprendido entre 2010 y 2022. Para ello, se aplicó una metodología mixta en las siguientes fases: primero, se analizó el registro de la Policía Nacional de Colombia -que incluyó 286 604 delitos sexuales denunciados en el periodo mencionado-. Luego, se diseñó un diagrama de bucle causal de Dinámica de Sistemas para resaltar el papel de la denuncia de delitos sexuales en el Sistema Penal Colombiano. Entre los principales hallazgos de este artículo se destaca que el 85.73 % de las denuncias están asociadas mayoritariamente a mujeres y el 68 % de las víctimas son menores de edad o adolescentes de ambos sexos. Es de anotar que la legislación colombiana divide estos delitos en agravados por violencia y no agravados por violencia. También se encontró que cuando la víctima es mujer, los delitos se presentan en mayor proporción con el agravante de violencia. También se puede concluir que durante el encierro pandémico COVID-19, hubo una disminución en el número de denuncias de delitos sexuales debido a su efecto negativo en la posibilidad de que las mujeres adultas denuncien delitos. Además, se constató que es imperativo orientar las políticas criminales hacia la prevención general positiva de los delitos sexuales, sin instrumentalizar a los individuos, y dirigidas a completar un seguimiento detallado de las denuncias.

O objetivo deste artigo foi analisar a dinâmica das denúncias de crimes sexuais na Colômbia no período entre 2010 e 2022. Para isso, foi aplicada uma metodologia mista nas seguintes fases: primeiro, foi analisado o registro da Polícia Nacional da Colômbia, que incluía 286 604 crimes sexuais denunciados no período mencionado. Em seguida, foi elaborado um diagrama de loop causal do System Dynamics para destacar o papel da denúncia de crimes sexuais no sistema penal colombiano. As principais conclusões desse artigo incluem que 85.73 % das denúncias estão associadas principalmente a mulheres e 68 % das vítimas são menores ou adolescentes de ambos os sexos. Deve-se observar que a legislação colombiana divide esses crimes entre aqueles que são agravados pela violência e aqueles que não são. Também foi constatado que, quando a vítima era mulher, os crimes ocorreram em uma proporção maior com o agravante de violência. Também se pode concluir que, durante o confinamento da pandemia da COVID-19, houve uma diminuição no número de denúncias de crimes sexuais devido ao seu efeito negativo sobre a possibilidade de mulheres adultas denunciarem crimes. Além disso, constatou-se que é imprescindível direcionar as políticas criminais para a prevenção geral positiva dos crimes sexuais, sem instrumentalizar os indivíduos, e visando à conclusão de um acompanhamento detalhado das denúncias.

Factors Related to Rape Reporting Behavior in Brazil: Examining the Role of Spatio-Temporal Factors.

The reporting of rape to police is an important component of this crime to have the criminal justice system involved and, potentially, punish offenders. However, for a number of reasons (fear of retribution, self-blame, etc.), most rapes are not reported to police. Most often, the research investigating this phenomenon considers incident and victim factors with little attention to the spatio-temporal factors of the rape. In this study, we consider incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors relating to rape reporting in Campinas, Brazil. Our primary research question is whether or not the spatio-temporal factors play a significant role in the reporting of rape, over and above incident and victim factors. The subjects under study are women who were admitted to the Women's Integrated Healthcare Center at the State University of Campinas, Brazil, and surveyed by a psychologist or a social worker. Rape reporting to police was measured using a dichotomous variable. Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of rape reporting based on incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors. Although we find that incident and victim factors matter for rape reporting, spatio-temporal factors (rape/home location and whether the rape was in a private or public place) play an important role in rape reporting, similar to the literature that considers these factors. This result has significant implications for sexual violence education. Only when we know why women decide not to report a rape may we begin to work on strategies to overcome these hurdles.