Ecology of the collapse of Rapa Nui society.

Collapses of food producer societies are recurrent events in prehistory and have triggered a growing concern for identifying the underlying causes of convergences/divergences across cultures around the world. One of the most studied and used as a paradigmatic case is the population collapse of the Rapa Nui society. Here, we test different hypotheses about it by developing explicit population dynamic models that integrate feedbacks between climatic, demographic and ecological factors that underpinned the socio-cultural trajectory of these people. We evaluate our model outputs against a reconstruction of past population size based on archaeological radiocarbon dates from the island. The resulting estimated demographic declines of the Rapa Nui people are linked to the long-term effects of climate change on the island's carrying capacity and, in turn, on the 'per-capita food supply'.

[Changes in urban development: is the globalization era one of urban deconcentration?]. / Cambios en el desarrollo urbano. Es la globalizacion una era de desconcentracion urbana?

PIP: Urbanization patterns in Mexico during the past five decades clearly reflect trends in the country's capitalist development. Accelerated industrialization with protectionism; redistributive policies with unlimited expansion of public expenditures; industrial conversion attended by economic crisis and structural adjustment during the "lost decade" of the 1980s; and indiscriminate opening, currency instability, and anti-inflation measures in the stage of globalization represent four successive phases. This work argues that the commercial opening and application of a neoliberal model are likely to renew tendencies toward concentration of population and economic activity in a few metropolitan areas. There are indications that manufacturing is again tending to concentrate in the older industrial cities, especially Mexico City. The 1995 census suggests that, beginning in 1988, the metropolitan areas again began to attract population growth, after a cycle of outflow from the center city to the metropolitan periphery in the 1970s and 1980s. The trend toward deconcentration, thus, may not represent a linear and long-term tendency. Instead, fluctuations over time are intimately related to macroeconomic forces and regulatory mechanisms that influence the urban system. No consensus has been reached concerning the theoretical explanations of effects on regional or urban systems when international restrictions on commerce are eliminated. The neoclassical perspective predicts a homogenizing effect, assuming that key conditions are met, while a competing theory predicts that increasing competition will inevitably be met by increases in the scale of production. Incentives to focus production in a small number of places would lead to economic and demographic concentration in the urban centers or regions enjoying better infrastructure, more qualified labor forces, and more extensive markets for labor and consumption. A renewed cycle of locus in Mexico's largest metropolitan zones may currently be underway.^ieng

Lysenkoism and the population control movement.

The case of Lysenkoism in the Soviet Union helps us understand how people's wrong beliefs can be influenced by what the information they receive from outside, especially when there is a large volume of media coverage and there is no contrary information to be heard. The population control movement in contemporary United States has many parallels to the Lysenko episode.

PIP: The history of the population control movement in the US resembles the Lysenkoism which destroyed agriculture and the study of genetics in the Soviet Union for 25 years, starting in the 1930s under Stalin's rule. Both movements developed out of only theoretical ideas, with no scientific evidence. Lysenko and Prezent rejected the classical theory by assuming that heredity is a general internal property of living matter. They rejected the gene theory on a priori abstract considerations, ignoring the factual basis of genetics. Likewise, population control advocates adhere to the abstract notion that some unit of discourse is finite, therefore inevitably limiting growth in population and consumption. However, the available evidence does not support the argument that population growth and density are associated with poorer economic results. The case of Lysenkoism in the Soviet Union helps one to understand how people's wrong beliefs can be influenced by what outside information they receive, especially when there is considerable media coverage and no information to the contrary.

[A simulation model of Mexican internal migration flows: empirical application of a spatial interaction model]. / Un modelo de simulacion de los flujos de migracion interna de Mexico: aplicacion empirica de un modelo de interaccion espacial.

PIP: "In this paper spatial interaction theory is challenged in order to test if it is suitable to support the design and construction of an operative model of the Mexican internal migration flows. The main conceptual and operative aspects of the model are presented, the design and model building process is explained, the results of the calibration analysis are examined and a simulation exercise of migration policy evaluation is undertaken. The operative migration model presented in this paper seems useful to analyze and evaluate numerous migration policies, which suggest that spatial interaction theory offers a promising conceptual and operative foundation to analyze internal migration flows in Mexico." (EXCERPT)^ieng

[Population and development]. / Poblacion y desarrollo.

PIP: This broad survey of the debate concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development discusses the history and current status of world population growth, summarizes several influential theoretical positions on the topic, and proposes that redefinition of women's social role is indispensable if worldwide control of population growth is to be achieved. The introductory section discusses the acceleration of population growth in the second half of the 20th century and the increasing concentration of growth in the poor and developing countries. The positions of those who see in population control a means of promoting economic development and political stability are contrasted to the positions of those who believe that a large and growing population is the key to achieving economic and political progress. The international community, facing great uncertainty about the size, distribution, and well-being of the future world population, is increasingly concerned about the effect of growing numbers on the environment and natural resources. The second section summarizes the works of Malthus, Julian Simon, and the Club of Rome, and analyzes the propositions of demographic transition theory. The conclusion notes that despite uncertainty about the future of world population, development, and health, most of the poorest countries have become aware of the desirability of slowing population growth. A broad redefinition of the social role of women will inevitably accompany the worldwide demographic transition.^ieng

[Population and environment: lessons from the Latin American experience]. / Poblacion y medio ambiente: lecciones de la experiencia latinoamericana.

PIP: Consideration of population and the environment in Latin America, rather than focusing on population size and growth rate, should be centered on the processes of urbanization in the context of specific historical factors and economic forces at work in the region and their impact on the environment. The existing polemic on population and the environment is characterized by a level of generality, abstraction, and ideological content that prevent impartial examination and impede creation of more constructive and useful policy. From the perspective of population size and growth, Latin America is relatively small and advanced in the fertility transition, and does not represent a global population threat. The urban profiles of Latin America are more comparable to those of the industrial countries than those of Africa and Asia. Nearly three-fourths of Latin Americans already live in urban zones, and there are no prospects of future massive rural-urban migration except in the smallest and poorest countries. Given the close relations between population distribution, economic development efforts, and environmental deterioration, it appears evident that in most of Latin America the configuration of economic growth, the solution of social problems, the definition of environmental themes, and the results of demographic processes will be found in the large cities. The principal population and environmental concern in the region is with spatial distribution, not population growth. Most of the crucial ecological issues in the cities remain to be resolved. Interdisciplinary cooperation and long-range planning must be intensified. The relations between increased competition for international resources, ecological awareness, government regulation, and nature of economic activity are critical issues, with implications for population redistribution and socioenvironmental welfare. It is probable that none of the themes related to sustainability can be resolved without reformulation of the model of economic growth predominating in the developed countries.^ieng

[Two models of the demographic transition in Latin America]. / Dos modelos de transicion demografica en America Latina.

PIP: Demographic transition in Latin America began in 1930 with a decrease in mortality rates, followed in 1965 by a decrease in birth rates, parallel to an intense process of modernization in the subcontinent's societies and economies. This model of demographic transition follows A. Landry's classic theory, although it shows very different forms in the changes in marriage rates compared to European countries. In the 1980s, a significant decrease in birth rates can be observed in the poorer sectors and the most backward areas in Latin America. This process represents a new model of demographic transition, which could be considered as a "poverty Malthusianism", and can be applied to families who limit births, fearing the great deterioration of their living conditions. (author's)^ieng

[Reflections on a psycho-anthropological approach to population studies]. / Reflexiones a partir de un abordaje psicoantropologico para los estudios de poblacion.

PIP: This work explores the potential complementarity of the sociodemographic, psychoanthropological, and sociopsychoanalytical perspectives for achieving understanding of the individual and familial roots of demographic behavior. Examination of the sociodemographic focus was stimulated and enriched by a 1986 seminar that considered theoretical and methodological problems in the integration of demographic dynamics into social research. Specific questions raised concerned the advantages and shortcomings of attitude and opinion surveys, the specifics of microsocial investigation, and the importance of the family as a mediator between larger social influences and individual behavior. Reflections on the relevance of the psychoanthropological tradition to the problems of microsocial research were influenced by a work published in the mid 1960s by the anthropologist and psychoanalyst Devereux. The affective distancing and unconscious defensive reactions of the investigator must, according to Devereux, be taken into account but also offer rich possibilities for analysis. Devereux also stressed that the study of human behavior occurs in the context of a reciprocal relation between the observer and the observed, with the observed playing a far from passive role. The presence of the observer occasions certain reactions but also is a source of complementary and relevant data for the study of behavior. A third possibility suggested by Devereux is that of approaching the unconscious of the study subjects through examination of the anxiety and other unconscious reactions of the researcher. Interpretative questionnaires, finally, are a tool of the sociopsychoanalytical tradition of potential use in demographic study. Interpretative questionnaires are applied to individuals in order to study personal psychic aspects, but their goal is the study of the socioeconomic and cultural environment that molds the personal characteristics of the respondents.^ieng

[Anthropology in demographic research]. / La antropologia en la investigacion demografica.

PIP: A questioning of the theoretical and methodological focus and strategies of sociodemographic research has been evident especially in Latin America since the 1970s. This work discusses the shortcomings of most current attempts to integrate anthropological and demographic approaches to population, and introduces eight articles on various aspects of population that appeared in the same publication. Most were first presented in a work session entitled "Anthropology in Sociodemographic Investigation" at the Thirteenth International Congress of Anthropological and Ethnological Sciences in 1993. The need to incorporate diverse dimensions of reality and different disciplinary perspectives in the explanation of demographic events and changes has been a significant preoccupation of sociodemography itself. A growing volume of studies of fertility, migration, processes of health and disease, sexuality, and the role of women, the family, and social institutions in reproduction, almost exclusively conducted at the micro level, reflect interest in incorporating anthropological viewpoints into sociodemographic analysis. An increasing number of scientific meetings and committees within population groups are devoted to the same themes. This introduction synthesizes the principal findings and recommendations of the eight articles, which examine very diverse topics using varied analytical approaches. All, however, offer reflections on the theoretical and methodological relevance of incorporating the anthropological perspective into sociodemographic investigation. Some also demonstrate the type of empirical findings that may result from a successful integration.^ieng

[Population and the environment: perspectives and proposals]. / Poblacion y medio ambiente: perspectivas y propuestas.

PIP: This work reflects on the relationship between population and the environment at different stages of development and proposes guidelines for community-level integrated programs that would be better able than existing programs to respond to local needs. Growing concern in recent decades about population growth, the environment, sustainable development, and similar topics represents continuation of a debate first formulated at the dawn of the industrial era. The first portion of the work examines the extent to which the catastrophic predictions of Malthus and other "pessimists" have been realized in the areas of explosive population growth, deteriorating consumption, and irreversible environmental degradation. Insufficient historical data is available to answer the question of whether, as maintained by the "optimists", technological progress is capable of providing improving living standards for most of the population, reducing growth, and avoiding irreversible environmental damage. Some of the variables implicated in the debate can, however, be examined: population growth and the demographic transition in developing and developed countries, and the impact of population growth on agriculture and the supply of land, forests, and water. The evidence reveals the gravity and also the complexity and diversity of demographic and economic processes affecting the environment. The next section discusses a model designed to illustrate the interaction between population, consumption, technology, and environmental impact at different historical periods and stages of development. It is concluded that the developed countries are mainly responsible for pollution originating in industrialization and energy use, but the more urbanized developing countries are increasingly responsible for air and water pollution, deforestation, and soil erosion. The final section proposes an integrated focus for reproductive health and environmental programs at the community level in developing countries. The discussion identifies criteria for selecting populations, community participation, program focus, and technology transfers for programs capable of furthering the objectives of both the health and development components.^ieng

[What is a family? And who plans it?]. / Que es la familia? (Y quien la planifica?).

PIP: This work questions the view of the family as a closed physical, economic, and emotional unit with longterm stability that has been the usual basis of demographic data collection and analysis, population policy formulation, and family planning program implementation. Simple models of the family assume that the parents and children live in the same household and function in a unified family economy, in which childbearing decisions reflect a longterm view of costs and benefits. But in reality, parents often live apart due to labor migration, polygamy, divorce, remarriage, or extramarital procreation. The hypothesis that family members share a household is valid only in some places, as Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data have demonstrated. In families separated by migration for economic reasons, distance often loosens economic ties, especially with the passage of time. Financial exchanges are precarious when the father and mother are not united by marriage. It is frequently assumed that satisfaction of the family planning needs of couples is equivalent to satisfying the needs of men and women separately, but this assumption may be erroneous for nonmonogamous individuals. Recent research demonstrates that single women and their partners are a potentially important group of family planning users. The assumption that increasing costs of children in developing countries will discourage parents from having large families may overlook parental efforts to have some of the cost assumed by other relatives or the older children, or to invest in only some of their children. As new proofs of the limitations of the conventional view of the family are found, the need becomes clear for research including men, adding an individual perspective to the attention usually focused on couples, and establishing a more realistic perspective on the family in all its manifestations.^ieng

[Theoretical views of the fertility transition in Latin America: what is the relevance of a diffusionist approach?]. / Visiones teoricas de la transicion de la fecundidad en America Latina: que relevancia tiene un enfoque difusionista?

PIP: Transition theory has dominated demographic thought since the early 20th century, but recent critiques prompted largely by results of the Princeton European Fertility Project and the World Fertility Surveys have cast doubt on some of its tenets. Greater importance has correspondingly been given to changes resulting from social diffusion of low fertility norms. Many of the elements of diffusion and transition theory are not necessarily contradictory, and much of the theoretical underpinning of past fertility research in Latin America has implicitly incorporated both transition and diffusion theory. The article analyzes general aspects of the diffusion hypothesis and evaluates their relevance for interpretation of fertility decline in Latin America. It adopts a comparative perspective in examining the evolution of fertility at the international level and within Latin American countries. At the international level, indicators of mortality and such development variables as per capita income, literacy and urbanization rates, were related inversely to fertility as predicted by transition theory, but the relationships have shifted and become less strong over the past 3 decades, suggesting that substantial structural changes have been produced that are not explained by changes in these variables. Despite persistence of some socioeconomic differences, once the trend to fertility decline has appeared on the national level, most large population groups have reduced their fertility, and within a relatively short time. From the mid-1970s on, a general decline in ideal family size has occurred, and the trend is not greatly affected by the economic stagnation or regression of the 1980s. A diffusionist approach seems to be useful for describing a process of change in desired and observed fertility, where diffusion within cohorts and across social groups both appear to be important. But there is less certainty about the relevance of diffusion theory as a truly explanatory model, given the difficulty of distinguishing the effects of diffusion from other underlying causes of change. Both socioeconomic factors and social interaction may have played important roles in explanation of pretransition fertility differences that have persisted over long periods of time, as well as in the initiation of fertility decline within countries. Once begun, the transition process may acquire its own dynamics that may be interpreted in general terms as a process of social diffusion conditioned by the socioeconomic particularities of each country. It is difficult to incorporate these socioeconomic factors in a consistent way in diffusion theory, however.^ieng

[The policy of human biological reproduction in Brazil]. / A política de reprodução biológica humana no Brasil.

The author presents some of the historical determinations of the policies of human reproduction in Brazil, placing them among other social policies. She argues that reproductive profile of the social classes depends upon not only the biological reproduction, but also upon the work power.

PIP: When examining the issue of human reproduction in Brazil and its historical determinants it must be stated that even primitive societies were regulating fertility, but planning of human reproduction as a movement started around 1922 in the United States through the militancy of Margaret Sanger. This was a time of radical ideological transformation as a result of industrialization and urbanization in North America, which changed the role of women and that of the family. In Brazil the discussion of fertility regulation started in the early 1960s, when the Kennedy administration conditioned its economic assistance to Latin America on the adoption of population control programs, which was not well-received in these Catholic countries. The neo-Malthusian population concept originated in the international agencies, who saw fertility control as a solution to global economic problems. It also found acceptance among elite conservatives in Brazil because of the fear that the growth of poor people could subvert the prevailing social order. Since national interest arguments did not work in Brazil, the programs invoked arguments such as how high parity and high-risk pregnancies would affect the health of the mother; the disproportion between the number of children and family income of the poor; and the control of induced abortion. The economic development in Brazil in the 1950s was the basis of accepting neo-Malthusian reasoning. The debate about these programs involved the whole society. The Catholic Church, however, was the major opponent of a government-supported fertility control program. The capitalist state has assigned to women the role of reproducer and primary socializer of children, regarding motherhood as their principal role, and the control of access to contraceptives meant the continued subordinated of women in capitalist and patriarchal societies.

[Population growth and the environment]. / Crescimento demografico e meio ambiente.

PIP: The impact of population growth on the enviornment has been extensively researched; it consists of the depletion of resources (agricultural land absorbed by urban expansion, loss of soils, desertification, loss of biodiversity, less availability of minerals, dwindling of petroleum reserves) and the degradation of natural resources (air and water pollution). For politicians, journalists, and environmentalists, population growth is identified as the principal villain, which is a unidirectional and negative opinion. Demography is supposed to examine the negative and positive effects of the environment-population relationship; however, it is postulated that there has not been much produced in the last 2 centuries in this area. Examination of the research literature does not indicate any view that transcends the Malthusian vision, although a few empirical studies exist (Hogan, 1989). Durham (1979) identified the replacement of subsistence agriculture by export-oriented agriculture as the key factor in overpopulation in El Salvador and Honduras that led to migrations and international conflicts. Tudela (1987) related a similar process in the Mexican state of Tabasco, where a period of malnutrition was accompanied by the expansion of export agriculture and nutritional improvements emanated only from recapturing subsistence agriculture. Fearnside (1986) researched the dynamics of the occupation and destruction of Amazonia. However, Kahn and Simon went further and denied the existence of real environmental problems: population is the ultimate resource, and the more minds, the more good ideas and solutions for any problem. However, in all these cases of pure or modified Malthusianism the relation of population/resources is reduced to a unidimensional relationship; and fertility, mortality, migration, marriage, and age structure receive little attention. A prime candidate for the attention of population specialists should be migration and patterns of settlement and their relationships to the physical environment, aspects of the depletion and degradation of resources as well as socially useful alterations.^ieng

[Population and crisis. Economic inflexibility or demographic subordination]. / Poblacion y crisis. Inflexibilidad economica o subordinacion demografica.

PIP: Much speculation, fact-based and subjective, has centered on the links between population and economic crisis, and between population and progress. In the past, famines directly affected the size and dynamics of population in affected regions, and such cycles inspired theories that regarded subsistence as the adjustment mechanism for demographic regimes. Population has alternatively been viewed as a crucial factor of production and a force for modernization and progress. After World War I and the Great Depression, many economists believed that population growth would be indispensable for renewing economic expansion. The favorable view of population growth in Mexico led to measures to repatriate emigrants, attract immigrants, and improve health conditions. The gross national product grew by around 6.0% annually on average between 1940 and 1960, and the per capita GNP by about 3%. Demographic dynamics acquired momentum by the 1960s, with high growth rates, a young age structure, considerable demographic inertia, and relative predominance of the urban population. Indications began to appear that a primarily economic solution to achieving full development would be unlikely. The polarization of development, distributive insufficiency, distortions in exchange relations for agricultural products, and incorporation of inappropriate technologies were factors decreasing the ability of the economy to respond adequately to population demands. National development was insufficient to meet growing demographic pressures in the labor market, educational system, housing, and urban services. The adjustment programs reduced even further the flexibility of the government to respond to pressures. Expectations for the future have been seriously compromised by the fall of real incomes.^ieng

[Fertility in rural and urban areas of Mexico]. / La fecundidad en las areas rurales y urbanas de Mexico.

PIP: Data from 6 fertility surveys conducted in Mexico between 1969-87 were used to compare rural and urban fertility and to determine whether a significant level of contraceptive usage could be achieved in rural areas despite their lack of socioeconomic development. Age-specific marital fertility rates were calculated for the 4 national-level and 2 rural fertility surveys. The index of fertility control developed by Coale and Trussel was calculated for rural, urban, and all areas. The marital total fertility rate in rural areas declined from 10.6 in 1970 to 7.4 in 1982, a decline of 2.5% annually. From 1982-87 the annual rate of decline in rural fertility slowed to 1.6%, reaching 6.8 children in 1987. The urban marital total fertility rate declined from 7.72 in 1976 to 5.03 in 1987, while the marital total fertility rate for Mexico as a whole declined from 9.04 in 1976 to 5.85 in 1987. The indices of fertility control showed slowly increasing use of contraception in rural areas starting from the very low level of 1969. The urban index of fertility control showed some contraceptive use for all age groups in all surveys. The increases in contraceptive usage were considerable in rural areas from 1976-82 and much less marked in urban areas. From 1982-87 the inverse was observed and the fertility decline in urban areas was more marked. The condition of natural fertility found in rural areas in 1969 subsequently disappeared. Over time, fertility decline and use of contraception have intensified. Contraception is widely practiced in urban areas and is continuing to become more prevalent. The rural fertility decline in 1976-82 suggests that at least sometimes increases in fertility control are more important in rural areas than in urban areas. The theory of modernization, which holds that fertility decline in developed countries is attributable to factors associated with the process of modernization, thus comes into question. However, it is probable that a sustained fertility decline in the most depressed rural areas will be achieved only with substantial socioeconomic change.^ieng

[The relationship between fertility and income: a review of some interpretations]. / Relacion entre fecundidad e ingresos: revision de algunas interpretaciones.

PIP: The relationship between fertility and income has been a preoccupation of demography since Malthus published the Principles of Population. Of the various approaches surveyed in this article, the economic analysis of fertility pioneered by Gary Becker based on neoclassical consumption theory argues the most strongly for a positive influence of income on fertility. Becker's model views children as consumer goods competing with alternative goods as parents attempt to maximize their utility or satisfaction. The indifference curves, budget lines and other analytical apparatus of microeconomic research are central to this approach. Blake and other opponents have questioned the appropriateness of microeconomic analysis in understanding family size and fertility. The theory of the demographic transition, unlike Becker's approach, views the income-fertility relationship as fundamentally negative. Although there is general consensus that the theory of demographic transition is a cornerstone of demography, there is less agreement as to its actual status. It appears to be less a truly developed theory based on a refined conceptual framework than a description or typology of apparent regularities observed in the past. Various authors have criticized specific elements of economic analysis of fertility. Okun rejected explanations of family size based on orthodox consumption theory because the costs of children, unlike the costs of consumer goods, are not the same for all households, while Mincer added analysis of opportunity costs, in this case referring essentially to the value of the time spent by mothers in child rearing instead of other activities. Several other analysts have suggested modification to the microeconomic approach. 2 recent reflections have contributed to an empirical and theortical synthesis of earlier work incorporating elements of demographic transition theory. Eva Mueller and Kathleen Short, in a work with considerable relevance to the Third World, have attempted to reconcile apparently contradictory findings by distinguishing between direct and indirect costs, by examining the time frame of references to income level, and by carefully distinguishing between macro- and microlevel studies conducted in rural or urban areas. Easterlin's work attempts to describe and explain the great fertility changes that occur in the process of modernization, including the fertility-income relationship. He includes in his analysis the supply of children--the number of surviving children a couple would have if they made no attempt to control their fertility--and the costs of fertility regulation. It appears from a review of this literature that the relationship between income and fertility is not universally either positive or negative. Economic analyses can contribute to clarification of the relative influence of income and other varibles that determine fertility levels and trends.^ieng

[From natural to controlled fertility: Mexico, 1950-1980]. / De una fecundidad natural a una controlada: Mexico 1950-1980.

PIP: Mexico's demographic transition was much later and more rapid than the classic transitions of European populations. A careful study of available data sources, especially fertility surveys, allows a detailed understanding of the reproductive process in Mexico, including the nuptiality patterns that influence fertility as well as changes in general and marital fertility. This work assesses the data sources and methods utilized to analyze Mexican fertility in the past, reviews fertility trends before the onset of the transition from about 1940-70, and describes the new reproductive patterns observed since about 1976. Fertility information from the decinnial censuses is not very adequate for measuring fertility levels or trends. Possible estimates based on census information are few and widely scattered in time, and omissions, underregistration, and faulty declarations are common because of the retrospective nature of the census. Census information is highly aggregated so that significant intermediate variables are not easy to assess. But census data are still the only source allowing estimations of fertility levels by areas of residence, administrative entities, and their social and economic characteristics. Mexico's vital statistics are of poor quality, with underregistration and late registration common. Evaluations of the Mexican Fertility Survey (EMF) of 1976-77 indicate that it provides more reliable estimates than the vital statistics or the census. The EMF and the National Demographic Survey (END) of 1982 indicate that the total fertility rate fell by 30.3% between 1974-80, from 6.27 to 4.37. Both the EMF and the END were national level surveys which collected complete fertility histories thus providing longitudinal information on the marital and fertility histories of women aged 15-49. This work uses primarily data from the EMF and END to analyze the period of fertility increase between 1940-60, the period of highest fertility between 1950-70, and the transition from a natural fertility regime to one of fertility control after 1970. The analysis contains 2 major parts, 1 presenting a study of general fertility including age specific rates for generations and periods, final family size of women terminating their childbearing, and the calendar of fertility for women still of fertile age. The 2nd major section focuses on marital fertility using the same indicators but taking into account the relationships between nuptiality and fertility. Comparisons are included between fertility levels based on the major surveys and those implied by the census and vital statistics data.^ieng

[The story of "population"]. / La invencion de la "poblacion".

PIP: The author presents a historical overview of the discipline of demography, beginning with the etymology of the word. A discussion of why the study of population came to be seen as important and a review of the various demographic schools of thought follow. The author concludes with a presentation of some modern approaches, including neo-Malthusianism. The geographical scope is worldwide, with some focus on Mexico.^ieng

[Peruvian demographic transition]. / Transicion demografica Peruana.

PIP: The demographic transition is conceptualized as the historic change from high to low fertility and mortality rates in a population. Peru's population was reduced by an estimated 80% as a result of new diseases, destruction of the economy, and the brutal regime of colonial exploitation after the Spanish conquest. From colonial times to the least the 1940s, Peru's principal population problem was the scarcity of manpower. The population grew at an annual rate of about .03% between 1650 and 1800, increasing to about 1.3% between 1876 and 1940. High fertility throughout the 19th century and a stabilization of mortality due to reduced incidence and deadliness of epidemics contributed to the increased growth rate. In the 1940s the process of demographic transition was initiated by abrupt declines in mortality. The crude death rate declined from 27/1000 in 1940 to 16/1000 in 1961 and 9/1000 in 1988, with the rate still declining. Fertility remained high and possibly increased slightly. The crude birth rate was estimated at 45/1000 in 1940 and 45.4/1000 in 1961. Improvements in infant and general mortality rates in developing countries like Peru result from diffusion of technological advances in prevention and control of diseases and improvement in health services rather than from changes in the economic and social structure. The 3rd phase of the demographic transition began with declines in fertility from 45.4/1000 in 1961 to 42.0/1000 in 1972 and 36.0/1000 in 1981. Despite declines, mortality and fertility continue to be elevated in Peru. The theory of demographic transition views the reduction of infant mortality, improvements in health and educational conditions and the condition of women, and more equitable income distribution as essential for a true decline in birth rates. In Peru, however, fertility has declined in a context of deteriorating living conditions and in the absence of effective family planning programs. The process of demographic transition must be accelerated, which will require improvements in education, income, and availability of sanitary services among other changes.^ieng