More winners than losers over 12 years of monitoring tiger moths (Erebidae: Arctiinae) on Barro Colorado Island, Panama.

Understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines has become an important goal in ecology, particularly in the tropics, where most terrestrial diversity exists. Over the past 12 years, the ForestGEO Arthropod Initiative has systematically monitored multiple insect groups on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, providing baseline data for assessing long-term population trends. Here, we estimate the rates of change in abundance among 96 tiger moth species on BCI. Population trends of most species were stable (n = 20) or increasing (n = 62), with few (n = 14) declining species. Our analysis of morphological and climatic sensitivity traits associated with population trends shows that species-specific responses to climate were most strongly linked with trends. Specifically, tiger moth species that are more abundant in warmer and wetter years are more likely to show population increases. Our study contrasts with recent findings indicating insect decline in tropical and temperate regions. These results highlight the significant role of biotic responses to climate in determining long-term population trends and suggest that future climate changes are likely to impact tropical insect communities.

Review of California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) abundance, and population dynamics in the Gulf of California

Introduction: The life history of the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) in the Gulf of California is marked by a series of important events influencing and modifying its population growth, distribution, and evolution. Despite the fact that this population has been studied since the 1950s, research has been rather punctual and fragmentary. Before 2010, there are only a few surveys conducted simultaneously in all rookeries, thus there is no reliable information on key aspects of life cycle, population trend and potential threats. In the present work we conducted a review of California sea lion life history and environmental changes in the Gulf of California thorough a collation survey data encompassing the last 37 years. Objective: Our aim was focused on identifying short- and long-term processes potentially acting on the population, and hopefully improve knowledge about the population trend and status using different points of view. Methods: We collected and analyzed population survey data from different sources since the 1970s to 2018: published papers, master's and doctoral thesis, in addition to technical reports. The survey data are organized in sections corresponding with crucial population life history events. Results: Considering a long-time period the population size appears to be stable with zero growth. Cyclic interannual fluctuation seem to denote a certain dependence with climatic factors, not directly with El Niño, but with sea surface temperature anomalies that determine prey availability. However, many doubts persist about the incidence of different local environmental factors on gender and age, particularly related with juvenile recruitment and female survival rate. Conclusions: In conclusion, more information is required based on seasonal surveys, life cycle, regional environmental variation. Statistical errors need to be assessed and monitoring methods should be standardized and must be considered to ascertain short- and long-term population and colony spatial-temporal patterns.

Introducción: El lobo marino de California (Zalophus californianus) en el Golfo de California se caracteriza por una serie de eventos que influyen en el crecimiento, evolución y distribución de la población. Los estudios poblacionales iniciaron en 1950, aunque las investigaciones fueron puntuales y fragmentadas. Antes de 2010 existen pocos censos simultáneos de las 13 colonias de lobos marinos, con los cuales se obtuvo información sobre el ciclo de vida, la tendencia poblacional y las potenciales amenazas de estos organismos. Objetivo: En esta investigación se presenta un resumen de 37 años de historia de investigaciones del lobo marino de California y del ecosistema del Golfo de California. Métodos: Se realizó un análisis de los procesos de corto y largo plazo que actúan sobre la población, revelando aspectos poco conocidos. Se recolectaron y analizaron datos para el periodo de 1970 al 2018: artículos, tesis de posgrado y reportes técnicos, que fueron organizados en secciones relacionadas con eventos ambientales cruciales para la población. Resultados: A largo plazo, la población parece estar estable y presenta fluctuaciones interanuales cíclicas que evidencian dependencia con factores climáticos como anomalías de temperatura superficial del mar regional que determinan un cambio en la disponibilidad de presas para los lobos marinos. No es claro el posible efecto que factores ambientales locales puedan ocasionar en las diferentes clases de edad y por sexos, en particular sobre el reclutamiento de juveniles y la tasa de supervivencia de las hembras. Conclusiones: El presente trabajo identifica las prioridades de información para esta población y ofrece recomendaciones como el monitoreo estandarizado y la consideración de variaciones espacio-temporales locales.

Decline towards extinction of Mexico's vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus).

The vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is a small porpoise endemic to Mexico. It is listed by IUCN as Critically Endangered because of unsustainable levels of bycatch in gillnets. The population has been monitored with passive acoustic detectors every summer from 2011 to 2018; here we report results for 2017 and 2018. We combine the acoustic trends with an independent estimate of population size from 2015, and visual observations of at least seven animals in 2017 and six in 2018. Despite adoption of an emergency gillnet ban in May 2015, the estimated rate of decline remains extremely high: 48% decline in 2017 (95% Bayesian credible interval (CRI) 78% decline to 9% increase) and 47% in 2018 (95% CRI 80% decline to 13% increase). Estimated total population decline since 2011 is 98.6%, with greater than 99% probability the decline is greater than 33% yr-1. We estimate fewer than 19 vaquitas remained as of summer 2018 (posterior mean 9, median 8, 95% CRI 6-19). From March 2016 to March 2019, 10 dead vaquitas killed in gillnets were found. The ongoing presence of illegal gillnets despite the emergency ban continues to drive the vaquita towards extinction. Immediate management action is required if the species is to be saved.

Predicting and setting conservation priorities for Bolivian mammals based on biological correlates of the risk of decline.

The recognition that growing proportions of species worldwide are endangered has led to the development of comparative analyses to elucidate why some species are more prone to extinction than others. Understanding factors and patterns of species vulnerability might provide an opportunity to develop proactive conservation strategies. Such comparative analyses are of special concern at national scales because this is the scale at which most conservation initiatives take place. We applied powerful ensemble learning models to test for biological correlates of the risk of decline among the Bolivian mammals to understand species vulnerability at a national scale and to predict the population trend for poorly known species. Risk of decline was nonrandomly distributed: higher proportions of large-sized taxa were under decline, whereas small-sized taxa were less vulnerable. Body mass, mode of life (i.e., aquatic, terrestrial, volant), geographic range size, litter size, home range, niche specialization, and reproductive potential were strongly associated with species vulnerability. Moreover, we found interacting and nonlinear effects of key traits on the risk of decline of mammals at a national scale. Our model predicted 35 data-deficient species in decline on the basis of their biological vulnerability, which should receive more attention in order to prevent their decline. Our results highlight the relevance of comparative analysis at relatively narrow geographical scales, reveal previously unknown factors related to species vulnerability, and offer species-by-species outcomes that can be used to identify targets for conservation, especially for insufficiently known species.