Measuring and increasing rates of self-isolation in the context of COVID-19: a systematic review with narrative synthesis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate (1) definitions of self-isolation used during the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) measures used to quantify adherence and their reliability, validity, and acceptability; (3) rates of self-isolation adherence; and (4) factors associated with adherence. STUDY DESIGN: This was a systematic review following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses and Synthesis Without Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines (PROSPERO record CRD42022377820). METHODS: MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, Web of Science, PsyArXiv, medRxiv, and grey literature sources were searched (1 January 2020 to 13 December 2022) using terms related to COVID-19, isolation, and adherence. Studies were included if they contained original, quantitative data of self-isolation adherence during the COVID-19 pandemic. We extracted definitions of self-isolation, measures used to quantify adherence, adherence rates, and factors associated with adherence. RESULTS: We included 45 studies. Self-isolation was inconsistently defined. Four studies did not use self-report measures. Of 41 studies using self-report, one reported reliability; another gave indirect evidence for the lack of validity of the measure. Rates of adherence to self-isolation for studies with only some concerns of bias were 51%-86% for COVID-19 cases, 78%-94% for contacts, and 16% for people with COVID-19-like symptoms. There was little evidence that self-isolation adherence was associated with sociodemographic or psychological factors. CONCLUSIONS: There was no consensus in defining, operationalising, or measuring self-isolation, resulting in significant risk of bias in included studies. Future definitions of self-isolation should state behaviours to be enacted and duration. People recommended to self-isolate should be given support. Public health campaigns should aim to increase perceived effectiveness of self-isolation and promote accurate information about susceptibility to infection.

Influence of easing COVID-19 strategies following downgrading of the national infectious disease category on COVID-19 occurrence among hospitalized patients in Japan.

PURPOSE: We aimed to evaluate the influence of easing COVID-19 preventive measures following its downgrading to a common infectious disease on COVID-19 occurrence among hospitalized patients. METHODS: Nosocomial occurrence of COVID-19 was compared between periods with national infectious disease category 5 versus the preceding category 2 equivalent. Changes in the revised manual included a shorter duration of work restrictions for infected health care practitioners (HCPs); no work restriction for HCPs exposed to SARS-CoV-2 with a negative test on days 1, 3 and 5; discontinuation of universal pre-admission screening; and pre-emptive isolation of patients without screening. Wearing an N95 mask and face shield was required in procedure/care with moderate-to high-risk contact. RESULTS: Although the mean monthly number of infected HCPs increased from 8.1 to 12.7 in the category 5 period (p = 0.034) and that of pre-admission screening decreased to one-fourth, the COVID-19 incidence in hospitalized patients remained similar between the two study periods (1.60 ± 5.59/month versus 1.40 ± 2.63/month, p = 0.358). Clusters, defined as ≥3 COVID-19 patients on the ward, were experienced twice in the preceding period and only once in the category 5 period. The index cases causing nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission mostly involved rehabilitation therapists in the preceding period; five of six index cases were patients in the category 5 period. Following the expanded indication for N95 masks, neither SARS-CoV-2 transmission to patients nor transmission from infected patients was observed in HCPs for 1 year. CONCLUSION: With sustained, enhanced standard precautions, easing prevention strategies could limit nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Pest categorisation of Popillia quadriguttata.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Popillia quadriguttata (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), following a commodity risk assessment of bonsai Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China, in which P. quadriguttata was identified as a pest of possible concern for the territory of the European Union. This is a univoltine polyphagous pest that occurs in eastern Asia from Vietnam northwards through eastern China and Taiwan, South Korea and into Far East Russia. Hosts include species of fruit trees within the genera Malus and Prunus, trees of forestry and environmental importance such as Quercus and Ulmus, shrubs such as Wisteria, soft fruit such as Rubus, grasses, including amenity turf and field crops such as potatoes, maize and soybean. Adults feed on host leaves, tender stems, flower buds, flowers and fruits; larvae feed on host roots. In northern China P. quadriguttata is a major pest of soybean; in South Korea, P. quadriguttata is one of the most serious insect pests of golf course turf. P. quadriguttata could enter the EU on various pathways including infested soil and growing media accompanying host plants for planning. Biotic factors (host availability) and abiotic factors (climate suitability) suggest that large parts of the EU would be suitable for establishment. Local spread would be mainly via natural dispersal of adults. Long distance spread would be facilitated by the movement of eggs, larvae and pupae infesting soil especially with plants for planting; adults could spread on plants for planting without soil. Economic and or environmental impacts would be expected on a range of plants if P. quadriguttata were to establish in the EU. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of its introduction. P. quadriguttata satisfies all of the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Pest categorisation of Cenopalpus irani.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Cenopalpus irani (Trombidiformes: Tenuipalpidae), known as the Iranian false spider mite, following the commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Türkiye, in which C. irani was identified as a pest of possible concern for the territory of the European Union (EU). The pest is only known to be present in Iran and Türkiye and has not been reported from the EU. The mite primarily feeds on Rosaceae plants but is considered polyphagous. Important crops of the EU that are hosts of C. irani include apples (Malus domestica), pears (Pyrus communis) and figs (Ficus carica). Plants for planting and fruits provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability in southern EU countries would most probably allow this species to successfully establish and spread. This mite is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread of this species into the EU. The mite C. irani satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest, although there is a key uncertainty over the likelihood and magnitude of impact.

Commodity risk assessment of Prunus avium plants from United Kingdom.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Prunus avium possibly grafted on rootstocks of either P. avium, P. canescens, P. cerasus, P. pseudocerasus or their hybrids imported from the UK, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Three quarantine pests Scirtothrips dorsalis, tobacco ringspot virus and tomato ringspot virus), one protected zone EU quarantine pest (Bemisia tabaci (European population), and three non- regulated pests (Colletotrichum aenigma, Eulecanium excrescens and Takahashia japonica) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. The risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical Dossier from the UK were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Colletotrichum aenigma being the pest most frequently expected on the imported potted plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9971 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free from the above-mentioned fungus.

Gamete and embryo donation guidance.

This document provides the latest recommendations for the evaluation of potential sperm, oocyte, and embryo donors, as well as their recipients, incorporating recent information about optimal screening and testing for sexually transmitted infections, genetic diseases, and psychological assessments. This revised document incorporates recent information from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US Food and Drug Administration, and the American Association of Tissue Banks, with which all programs offering gamete and embryo donation services must be thoroughly familiar, and replaces the document titled "Recommendations for gamete and embryo donation: a committee opinion," last published in 2013.

Survey study on the Korean quarantine-at-home system for Covid-19: suggestions for improvements.

We examined whether quarantined individuals complied with rules to prevent transmission at home and whether the government provided appropriate support to individuals in quarantine. Between November 2020 and August 2021, we surveyed 198 individuals who had been or were quarantined at home without infection. The online survey results show that respondents experienced difficulties living in close quarters with their cohabitants and had low compliance with in-house hygiene rules. The government needed to provide adequate employment protection, living expense, or care support. Such failures of the system were mainly due to a lack of legal grounds for the government to operate. To improve compliance, the government can amend laws to permit active communication of public health messages with those quarantined at home and provide the necessary support.

Perceived stress and influencing factors for the people at high risk to COVID-19 in centralized quarantine camps in Wenzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to assess stress levels and related factors during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic among individuals in centralized quarantine camps in Wenzhou, China. METHODS: The survey was conducted using a questionnaire. The questionnaire included questions on sociodemographic characteristics, life events related to the COVID-19 and stressful situations, as well as Perceived Stress Scale-14. Participants included close contacts of patients with COVID-19 or at-risk individuals in quarantine camps. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze different factors affecting perceived stress. RESULTS: The prevalence of high stress among quarantine camp participants was 37.45%. Of the 881 respondents, 51.99% were concerned about the difficulty of controlling the epidemic, 46.20% were concerned about the health of themselves and their family members and 39.61% were concerned about not being able to leave their homes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed statistically significant differences in the prevalence of stress among different groups for certain variables, including occupation, education level and knowledge of COVID-19 (all P < 0.05). Our study found that at-risk individuals and close contacts experienced high levels of stress in quarantine camps during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that centralized quarantine policies should be adapted and optimized to minimize negative psychological effects on quarantined individuals.

Free will, quarantines, and moral enhancements: neuroabolitionism as an alternative to criminal law.

This article critically navigates the complex debate surrounding free will and criminal justice, challenging traditional assumptions of moral responsibility and culpability. By exploring hard incompatibilism, which denies free will, I question the ethical justification of punitive sanctions and critically analyze the alternative models such as the public health-quarantine and nonconsensual neurobiological "moral" enhancements. These alternatives, however, introduce practical and ethical concerns. Advocating for a neuro-abolitionist perspective, through the proposition of five initial principles/debates, the article suggests a shift in integrating sociological abolitionism with insights from neuroscience. The discussion extends to the implications of hard incompatibilism and the pursuit of more humane and effective approaches to deviant behavior, ultimately calling for the abolition of punitive models and criminal law itself.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on physical activity and sedentary behaviour in secondary school teachers: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mid-March 2020, Belgium went in lockdown to combat the COVID-19-pandemic. Having to provide school-based day care and adapt to online teaching, while all social, cultural and sports events and activities were cancelled, secondary school teachers' physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) may have been affected considerably. This study investigates the impact of the first Belgian lockdown on PA and SB in Flemish secondary school teachers. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted throughout the 2019-2020 school year. PA and SB measured in March/April 2020 were compared with a pre-lockdown measurement in January/February 2020. Other pre-lockdown measurements (September/October 2019 and November/December 2019) and one other during-lockdown measurement (May/June 2020) allowed us to control for confounding. Validated questionnaires were used to assess participants' PA and SB. Generalized linear mixed models were applied in R. RESULTS: Among 624 participants (77·2% females, 43·3 ± 10·3 years), increases were observed for total PA (+ 108 min/week; p = 0·047), moderate PA (+ 217 min/week; p = 0·001), domestic and garden PA (+ 308 min/week; p < 0·0001) and leisure-time PA (+ 131 min/week; p < 0·0001), whereas work-related PA (-289 min/week; p < 0·0001) and active transportation (-38 min/week; p =0·005) decreased. No differences were observed for walking (p = 1·0) and vigorous PA (p = 0·570). Increases were found for total SB (+ 972 min/week; p < 0·0001), work-related SB (+ 662 min/week; p < 0·0001) and leisure-time SB (+ 592 min/week; p = 0·0004), whereas transport-related SB (-290 min/week; p < 0·0001) decreased. CONCLUSION: During the lockdown, we found in our sample that Flemish secondary school teachers showed an increase in SB that was 9 times as high as their PA increase. As a government, education network or school, it is crucial to sensitize, promote, and facilitate sufficient MVPA and/or walking, but likewise to discourage SB during pandemic-induced lockdowns.

Genetic analysis based on next generation sequencing of Streptococcus equi subsp. equi isolated from horses imported into Japan.

Strangles is a globally widespread, commonly diagnosed and important infectious disease of equids caused by Streptococcus equi subsp. equi. We performed whole genome sequencing of 19 S. equi isolates collected from imported horses at the Japanese border. Of these isolates, 15 isolates were obtained from clinical cases and 4 were from subclinical cases. The 19 isolates were grouped into 3 Bayesian analysis of population structure (BAPS) groups by the core genome single nucleotide polymorphism analysis corresponding to exporting country, SeM typing, or exporter of the horses. The 19 isolates possessed same pathogenic genes regardless of clinical status in imported horses and no antimicrobial resistance genes. The disease status of the horses may rather reflect the prior exposure of animals with sub-clinical infection to S. equi.

Optimal control of a fractional order SEIQR epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence and quarantine class.

During any infectious disease outbreak, effective and timely quarantine of infected individuals, along with preventive measures by the population, is vital for controlling the spread of infection in society. Therefore, this study attempts to provide a mathematically validated approach for managing the epidemic spread by incorporating the Monod-Haldane incidence rate, which accounts for psychological effects, and a saturated quarantine rate as Holling functional type III that considers the limitation in quarantining of infected individuals into the standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered (SEIQR) model. The rate of change of each subpopulation is considered as the Caputo form of fractional derivative where the order of derivative represents the memory effects in epidemic transmission dynamics and can enhance the accuracy of disease prediction by considering the experience of individuals with previously encountered. The mathematical study of the model reveals that the solutions are well-posed, ensuring nonnegativity and boundedness within an attractive region. Further, the study identifies two equilibria, namely, disease-free (DFE) and endemic (EE); and stability analysis of equilibria is performed for local as well as global behaviours for the same. The stability behaviours of equilibria mainly depend on the basic reproduction number R0 and its alternative threshold T0 which is computed using the Next-generation matrix method. It is investigated that DFE is locally and globally asymptotic stable when R0<1. Furthermore, we show the existence of EE and investigate that it is locally and globally asymptotic stable using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion and the Lyapunov stability theorem for fractional order systems with R0>1 under certain conditions. This study also addresses a fractional optimal control problem (FOCP) using Pontryagin's maximum principle aiming to minimize the spread of infection with minimal expenditure. This approach involves introducing a time-dependent control measure, u(t), representing the behavioural response of susceptible individuals. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to support the analytical findings using the Adams Bashforth Moulton scheme in MATLAB, providing a comprehensive understanding of the proposed SEIQR model.

A deterministic transmission model for analytics-driven optimization of COVID-19 post-pandemic vaccination and quarantine strategies.

This study developed a deterministic transmission model for the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), considering various factors such as vaccination, awareness, quarantine, and treatment resource limitations for infected individuals in quarantine facilities. The proposed model comprised five compartments: susceptible, vaccinated, quarantined, infected, and recovery. It also considered awareness and limited resources by using a saturated function. Dynamic analyses, including equilibrium points, control reproduction numbers, and bifurcation analyses, were conducted in this research, employing analytics to derive insights. Our results indicated the possibility of an endemic equilibrium even if the reproduction number for control was less than one. Using incidence data from West Java, Indonesia, we estimated our model parameter values to calibrate them with the real situation in the field. Elasticity analysis highlighted the crucial role of contact restrictions in reducing the spread of COVID-19, especially when combined with community awareness. This emphasized the analytics-driven nature of our approach. We transformed our model into an optimal control framework due to budget constraints. Leveraging Pontriagin's maximum principle, we meticulously formulated and solved our optimal control problem using the forward-backward sweep method. Our experiments underscored the pivotal role of vaccination in infection containment. Vaccination effectively reduces the risk of infection among vaccinated individuals, leading to a lower overall infection rate. However, combining vaccination and quarantine measures yields even more promising results than vaccination alone. A second crucial finding emphasized the need for early intervention during outbreaks rather than delayed responses. Early interventions significantly reduce the number of preventable infections, underscoring their importance.

Transmission Patterns of Co-Circulation of Omicron Sub-Lineages in Hong Kong SAR, China, a City with Rigorous Social Distancing Measures, in 2022.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to characterize the changing landscape of circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the local community of Hong Kong throughout 2022. We examined how adjustments to quarantine arrangements influenced the transmission pattern of Omicron variants in a city with relatively rigorous social distancing measures at that time. METHODS: In 2022, a total of 4684 local SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced using the Oxford Nanopore GridION sequencer. SARS-CoV-2 consensus genomes were generated by MAFFT, and the maximum likelihood phylogeny of these genomes was determined using IQ-TREE. The dynamic changes in lineages were depicted in a time tree created by Nextstrain. Statistical analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between changes in the number of lineages and adjustments to quarantine arrangements. RESULTS: By the end of 2022, a total of 83 SARS-CoV-2 lineages were identified in the community. The increase in the number of new lineages was significantly associated with the relaxation of quarantine arrangements (One-way ANOVA, F(5, 47) = 18.233, p < 0.001)). Over time, Omicron BA.5 sub-lineages replaced BA.2.2 and became the predominant Omicron variants in Hong Kong. The influx of new lineages reshaped the dynamics of Omicron variants in the community without fluctuating the death rate and hospitalization rate (One-way ANOVA, F(5, 47) = 2.037, p = 0.091). CONCLUSION: This study revealed that even with an extended mandatory quarantine period for incoming travelers, it may not be feasible to completely prevent the introduction and subsequent community spread of highly contagious Omicron variants. Ongoing molecular surveillance of COVID-19 remains essential to monitor the emergence of new recombinant variants.

Mental Health in Self-Quarantined Pregnant Women for 14 Days During the Coronavirus Outbreak in Iran.

Background: Quarantine during COVID-19 disease may be associated with psychological distress and other behavioral problems. This study aimed to investigate depression, anxiety, and stress in self-quarantined pregnant women at home for 14 days during the coronavirus disease outbreak in Iran. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional web survey was carried out on 874 pregnant women in all governmental health centers of two cities in Iran using the census method in 2020-21. Survey data were collected with the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale-21. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and analytical tests (Chi-square, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and logistic regression) at significance level less than 0.05. Results: Approximately 40.04% (N = 350) of the participants were classified as a self-quarantine group. The mean (SD) of the stress score was higher for the quarantine group compared to nonquarantine (8.12 (4.95) vs. 5.96 (4.51)) (F2,874 = 25.180, p < 0.001). But there was no significant difference in the depression and anxiety scores between the quarantine group compared to nonquarantine, respectively. Additionally, the adjusted odds ratio for stress score was associated with an unwanted pregnancy (1.993, 95% CI: 1.108-3.587; p = 0.021), younger age (1.707, 95% CI: 1.082-2.692; p = 0.022) and uninsured coverage (2.240, 95% CI: 1.320-3.801; p = 0.003), and complete quarantine (2.027, 95% CI: 1.548-2.654; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Self-quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic has been related to high-stress levels, specifically, among women of younger age, uninsured, and unwanted pregnancies. Thus, quarantined pregnant women will need more mental health support and medical supplies.

Nursing institutions' professors' perception and distant education experience during COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.

BACKGROUND: The nursing profession represents a demanding and challenging profession with a purpose to keep up with the evolving health-care demands of the population. AIMS: The purpose of this study is to assess nursing institutions' professors' previous experience about information and communication technologies (ICTs) and their perception of distant education during the pandemic lockdown. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This present is a cross-sectional study among participants n = 249 recruited from all academic staff (N = 694) of 23 higher institutes of nursing professions and health techniques in Morocco. The Chi-square test for independence (χ2) and adjusted Z scores were used as a data analysis method to assess the association between the professors' education levels and ICT experience. RESULTS: A significant association [χ2 (1, n = 249) = 19.510, P < 0.001] was revealed between professors' education level and taken training related to ICT in education; significant few professors (16; 9.3%) reported that taken training session [χ2 (1, n = 249) = 8.940, P = 0.003] belonged to the bachelor degree group. In matters of perception, a few proportion (10%) reported that using technology effectively belonged to the bachelor and low education background group. CONCLUSIONS: The findings showed that having previous experience in teaching remotely and training related to the ICT was significantly associated with a higher education background. Moreover, professors with higher degrees agreed that distant education could be an alternative to face-to-face course during quarantine.

Impact of Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in children with functional abdominal pain disorders: Data from long-term follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare symptom frequency and severity in children with functional abdominal pain disorders (FAPDs) and to evaluate anxiety, quality of life (QoL) and global health during Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related quarantine and after 17 months. METHODS: Children diagnosed with FAPDs between October 2019 and February 2020 at 5 different centers were enrolled and prospectively interviewed during the COVID-19 quarantine and 17 months later when schools, hospital services, and routine activities had re-opened to the public. The patients were asked to complete the Rome IV questionnaire, the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 (PedsQL 4.0) Generic Core Scale, the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) anxiety and global health questionnaires. Data about COVID-19 infection and its clinical outcome were also collected. RESULTS: Ninety-nine out of 180 (55%) children completed the follow-up. The number of patients reporting a worsening of their symptoms was significantly higher at follow-up when compared to the quarantine period (24/99 [24.2%] vs. 12/99 [12.1%]; p = 0.04). The PedsQL 4.0 subtotal score at follow-up significantly decreased at 17 months of follow-up (65.57 [0-100]) when compared to the quarantine (71 [0-100], p = 0.03). Emotional functioning was the most significantly reduced (Follow-up: 64.7 [0-100] vs. Quarantine: 75 [0-100]; p = 0.006). We did not identify significant differences in symptoms and QoL between COVID-19 infected children and the remaining cohort at the two time points. CONCLUSIONS: An improvement of symptoms and QoL was observed during the quarantine, followed by a worsening at-follow-up. These findings reinforce the hypothesis that the nest effect overweighted COVID-19 fears during the quarantine and highlight the importance of psychological factors in symptom exacerbation.

Development of recombinase polymerase amplification-based colorimetric detection assay for rapid identification of invasive cassava mealybug, Phenacoccus manihoti Matile-Ferrero.

Phenacoccus manihoti Matile-Ferrero (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is an economically important invasive cassava pest responsible for the massive devastation of cassava in Asia and African continent. Initially, identifying this invasive pest posed challenges because it closely resembled native mealybug species. Additionally, the traditional morphological identification process is labor-intensive and time-consuming. Detecting invasive pests at an early stage is crucial, hence development of a rapid detection assay is essential. In the current study, we have developed a simple, rapid, sensitive, and efficient molecular detection assay for P. manihoti based on Recombinase Polymerase Amplification (RPA). The primers for the RPA assay were designed using unique nucleic acid sequences of P. manihoti, and the protocol was standardized. Specificity test demonstrated that the RPA assay could amplify DNA of P. manihoti only, and no amplification was observed in six other mealybug species. The specificity of assay was confirmed using SYBR green-based colorimetric detection and gel electrophoresis where positive samples showed 195 bp amplicon size in P. manihoti samples. The assay successfully amplified P. manihoti DNA in thirty minutes at an annealing temperature of 41° C in a water bath and displayed a sensitivity of 72.5 picograms per microliter. The assay's simplicity, rapidity, and high sensitivity make it a valuable tool for detecting and monitoring P. manihoti in quarantine stations and facilitating in development of a portable diagnostic kit.

Which SDM Model, CLIMEX vs. MaxEnt, Best Forecasts Aeolesthes sarta Distribution at a Global Scale under Climate Change Scenarios?

A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species' distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.

Mating type and microsatellite genotyping indicate that the Tunisian population of Phyllosticta citricarpa is clonal and thrives only asexually.

Citrus black spot (CBS) caused by Phyllosticta citricarpa was reported for the first time in Tunisia in 2019. This was also the first reported occurrence of the disease in a Mediterranean climate. In Tunisia, CBS is mainly found in lemon (Citrus limon) orchards, and is seldom observed on sweet orange (Citrus × sinensis). This recent finding in North Africa raises questions about how the disease has been able to spread under Mediterranean climatic conditions. In this work, 216 Phyllosticta strains collected from lemon orchards in 2021, 2022 and 2023 throughout the country's main citrus-growing provinces were characterised by species morphological and molecular identification, mating type and Simple Sequence Repeats (SSR) microsatellite genotyping (MLG). P. citricarpa was the only species found to be associated with CBS in Tunisia. Although P. citricarpa is a heterothallic fungal species, potentially able to reproduce both sexually and asexually, a single mating type (MAT 1-1-1) idiomorph was found in the population. In addition, three MLGs were observed, across ten microsatellite loci, one of which was massively represented (93 %), indicating a clonal population. The clonality observed suggests a single recent introduction of the pathogen into the country. These findings support the idea that in Tunisia, P. citricarpa only reproduces asexually by pycniospores, with a relatively limited dispersal potential. This is consistent with the absence of pseudothecia on the leaf litter. These results show that CBS is able to thrive under Mediterranean conditions, even in the absence of sexual reproduction. This should be taken into consideration for CBS risk assessment and management.