Linking resource selection to population performance spatially to identify species' habitat across broad scales: An example of greater sage-grouse in a distinct population segment.

Management decisions often focus on the habitat selection of marked individuals without considering the contribution to demographic performance in selected habitats. Because habitat selection is not always adaptive, understanding the spatial relationship between habitat selection and demographic performance is critical to management decisions. Mapping both habitat selection and demographic performance for species of conservation concern can help guide population-scale conservation efforts. We demonstrate a quantitative approach to differentiate areas supporting selection and survival at large spatial extents. As a case study, we applied this approach to greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator species for sagebrush ecosystems. We evaluated both habitat selection and survival across multiple reproductive life stages (nesting, brood-rearing) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population of sage-grouse on the southwestern edge of the species' range. Our approach allowed us to identify both mismatches between selection and survival and trade-offs between reproductive life stages. These findings suggest resource demands vary across time, with predation risk being a dominant driver of habitat selection during nesting and early brood-rearing periods when chicks are smaller and flightless, whereas access to forage resources becomes more important during late brood rearing when resources become increasingly limited. Moving beyond identifying and managing habitat solely based on species occupancy or use by incorporating demographic measures allows managers to tailor actions to their specific goals; for example, protections of areas that support high selection and high survival and restoration actions focused on increasing survival in areas of high selection and low survival.

Microclimate and thermal refuge influences on sage-grouse brood habitat selection.

Wildlife space use is driven by three primary mechanisms, predator avoidance, foraging, and thermoregulation. The latter has largely been overlooked in wildlife research. Understanding how habitat use is influenced by thermoregulatory properties is a critical component to depicting species' ecology. Galliformes' (i.e., ground nesting birds with precocial young) ecology is predisposed to thermal extremes, where newly hatched chicks are unable to thermoregulate <14 d post-hatch, and have limited capabilities until >21 d post-hatch. We examined greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) brood rearing habitats and provide the first evaluation as to how microscale thermal environments influenced habitat selection. We monitored 24 broods, collected 82,929 black bulb temperature measurements from thermal arrays (n = 256) comprised of stainless steel black bulbs (i.e., surrogate for operative temperature) to compare brood morning (i.e., foraging, n = 78), afternoon (i.e., loafing, n = 82) and associated random locations (n = 96) between early (≤21 d post-hatch) and late (>21 d post-hatch) brood-rearing. We measured vegetation at all locations to disentangle relationships between cover and thermoregulatory metrics. We found that microclimates at all foraging locations heated more rapidly than either their loafing or random locations. Alternatively, loafing locations moderated ambient temperature more effectively than foraging locations but were similar to random locations. Broods were using loafing sites that both increased their ability to avoid predators (i.e., increased shrub structure) and buffered ambient temperature better than their foraging locations. Interestingly, random afternoon locations tended to lack concealment from predators, despite these locations showing improved thermal buffering compared to foraging locations. However, early brood-rearing habitats appeared to moderate ambient temperatures more effectively than late. Our results suggested that managing vegetation for structural heterogeneity will afford a diversity of thermal refuge for greater sage-grouse broods during this critical life history stage.

Climate change and C4 and C3 grasses in a midlatitude dryland steppe.

Climate change is projected to alter the structure of plant communities due to increasing temperatures and changes to precipitation patterns, particularly in midlatitude dryland ecosystems. Modifications to climatic suitability may lead to major community changes such as altered dominant plant functional types. Previous studies have indicated that climatic suitability is likely to increase for C4 grasses and decrease for C3 grasses in the Western United States. However, if no C4 grass species currently exist to serve as a propagule source, expansion into areas of increased suitability will be limited. We conducted a field and modeling study in the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) of Western Wyoming to determine if (1) C4 grasses are present to provide a propagule source and (2) C4 grasses are likely to increase in importance relative to C3 grasses due to climatic changes. We searched 44 sites for C4 grasses to establish presence, and modeled suitability at 35 sites using 17 Global Climate Models, two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5), and two time periods (mid- and late century; 2030-2060 and 2070-2099, respectively). We found C4 grasses at 10 of the 44 sites, indicating that there is a present propagule source. Our model projected increases in suitability for both C3 and C4 grasses across sites for all RCPs and time periods. In the mid-century RCP 4.5 scenario, the C3 functional type increased in projected biomass in 29 of 35 sites, and the C4 type increased in 31 sites. In this scenario, C3 grasses increased in projected biomass by a median 4 g m-2 (5% change), and C4 grass biomass increased by a median 8 g m-2 (21% change). Our study suggests that climate change will increase climatic suitability for grasses across the UGRB, and that all requirements are in place for C4 grasses to increase in abundance.

Variability in weather and site properties affect fuel and fire behavior following fuel treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe.

Fuel-treatments targeting shrubs and fire-prone exotic annual grasses (EAGs) are increasingly used to mitigate increased wildfire risks in arid and semiarid environments, and understanding their response to natural factors is needed for effective landscape management. Using field-data collected over four years from fuel-break treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe, we asked 1) how the outcomes of EAG and sagebrush fuel treatments varied with site biophysical properties, climate, and weather, and 2) how predictions of fire behavior using the Fuel Characteristic Classification System fire model related to land-management objectives of maintaining fire behavior expected of low-load, dry-climate grasslands. Generalized linear mixed effect modeling with build-up model selection was used to determine best-fit models, and marginal effects plots to assess responses for each fuel type. EAG cover decreased as antecedent-fall precipitation increased and increased as antecedent-spring temperatures and surface soil clay contents increased. Herbicides targeting EAGs were less effective where pre-treatment EAG cover was >40 % and antecedent spring temperatures were >9.5 °C. Sagebrush cover was inversely related to soil clay content, especially where clay contents were >17 %. Predicted fire behavior exceeded management objectives under 1) average fire weather conditions when EAG or sagebrush cover was >50 % or >26 %, respectively, or 2) extreme fire weather conditions when EAG or sagebrush cover was >10 % or >8 %, respectively. Consideration of the strong effects of natural variability in site properties and antecedent weather can help in justifying, planning and implementing fuel-treatments.

Backpack satellite transmitters reduce survival but not nesting propensity or success of greater sage-grouse.

Telemetry technology is ubiquitous for studying the behavior and demography of wildlife, including the use of traditional very high frequency (VHF) radio telemetry and more recent methods that record animal locations using global positioning systems (GPS). Satellite-based GPS telemetry allows researchers to collect high spatial-temporal resolution data remotely but may also come with additional costs. For example, recent studies from the southern Great Basin suggested GPS transmitters attached via backpacks may reduce the survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) relative to VHF transmitters attached via collars that have been in use for decades. While some evidence suggests GPS backpacks reduce survival, no studies have examined the effects of GPS backpacks on breeding behavior and success. Therefore, we compared survival, breeding behavior, and nest success of sage-grouse hens marked with both VHF collars and GPS backpack transmitter over a 7-year period in central Idaho, USA. GPS backpacks reduced spring-summer survival of sage-grouse hens relative to hens with VHF collars, where daily mortality probability was 68%-82% higher from March 1 to August 1. Yet satellite GPS backpacks did not consistently affect nest success or the likelihood or timing of nest initiation relative to VHF collars. Daily nest survival varied annually and with timing of nest initiation and nest age, but marginal effects of transmitter type were statistically insignificant and interactions between transmitter type and study year produced no meaningful patterns. Our results corroborate recent studies for the effect of satellite GPS backpacks on sage-grouse survival, but also suggest that these transmitters do not appear to affect components of fecundity. Our results therefore add important context to recent debate surrounding the effects of GPS backpacks on sage-grouse, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of different transmitter types for understanding behavior and population dynamics.

Long-term biocrust responses to wildfires in Washington, USA.

PREMISE: Dryland ecosystems in the western United States are affected by invasive species, wildfires, livestock grazing, and climate change in ways that are difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures. METHODS: We revisited a Washington, USA, site sampled for biocrusts in 1999 to focus on effects of exotic annual grass invasion and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. We examined changes between 1999 and 2020 using a Bayesian directed acyclic graph (DAG) to interpret direct and indirect causal impacts of wildfire on perennial bunchgrasses, exotic annual grasses, and biocrusts. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2020, exotic annual grass cover increased in all plots and in unburned plots by 16% and 18%, respectively, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. Our DAG suggested that decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Wildfires did not directly influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Areas dominated by exotic annual grass had less abundant and diverse biocrusts than areas with less exotic annual grass. CONCLUSIONS: Biocrust community changes were more strongly related to increasing exotic annual grasses than to wildfires. Changes may relate to other soil disturbances or broad-scale changes in climate or air quality. The minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites may be due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance.

Living on the edge: Predicting songbird response to management and environmental changes across an ecotone.

Effective wildlife management requires robust information regarding population status, habitat requirements, and likely responses to changing resource conditions. Single-species management may inadequately conserve communities and result in undesired effects to non-target species. Thus, management can benefit from understanding habitat relationships for multiple species. Pinyon pine and juniper (Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.) are expanding into sagebrush-dominated (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems within North America and mechanical removal of these trees is frequently conducted to restore sagebrush ecosystems and recover Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). However, pinyon-juniper removal effects on non-target species are poorly understood, and changing pinyon-juniper woodland dynamics, climate, and anthropogenic development may obscure conservation priorities. To better predict responses to changing resource conditions, evaluate non-target effects of pinyon-juniper removal, prioritize species for conservation, and inform species recovery within pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems, we modeled population trends and density-habitat relationships for four sagebrush-associated, four pinyon-juniper-associated, and three generalist songbird species with respect to these ecosystems. We fit hierarchical population models to point count data collected throughout the western United States from 2008 to 2020. We found regional population changes for 10 of 11 species investigated; 6 of which increased in the highest elevation region of our study. Our models indicate pinyon-juniper removal will benefit Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri), Green-tailed Towhee (Pipilo chlorurus), and Sage Thrasher (Oreoscoptes montanus) densities. Conversely, we predict largest negative effects of pinyon-juniper removal for species occupying early successional pinyon-juniper woodlands: Bewick's Wren (Thryomanes bewickii), Black-throated Gray Warblers (Setophaga nigrescens), Gray Flycatcher (Empidonax wrightii), and Juniper Titmouse (Baeolophus ridgwayi). Our results highlight the importance of considering effects to non-target species before implementing large-scale habitat manipulations. Our modeling framework can help prioritize species and regions for conservation action, infer effects of management interventions and a changing environment on wildlife, and help land managers balance habitat requirements across ecosystems.

Evaluating Seed Enhancement Technology's Effects on Seed Viability during Multi-Year Storage: A Case Study Using Herbicide Protection Pellets.

The viability of seed often decreases during multi-year storage. For seed enhancement technologies (SETs) that apply treatments to native seed prior to sowing in restoration projects, it is important to determine if SETs affect the rate of viability loss in storage to understand if treated seeds can tolerate storage or if they must be sown immediately after treatment. Examining herbicide protection pellet (HPP) seed technology, we conducted germination trials on 10 seedlots of four species to compare three treatments: original bare seed kept in seed storage for 2-3 years, seed retrieved from 2-3-year-old HPPs made from pre-storage original bare seed (old HPPs), and seed retrieved from HPPs that were freshly-made using post-storage original bare seed (new HPPs). For three perennial bunchgrasses, we saw equal or higher germinability of seed from old HPPs compared to the original bare seed and new HPPs, suggesting application of HPP technology to these species prior to multi-year storage is suitable. For the seeds of a perennial shrub, although we saw greater germination of original bare seeds compared to old HPPs, the lowest germination was from new HPPs, still suggesting HPP application prior to storage as a suitable practice. We suggest these tests be performed with all new SETs under development for ecological restoration.

A genotype × environment experiment reveals contrasting response strategies to drought between populations of a keystone species (Artemisia tridentata; Asteraceae).

Western North America has been experiencing persistent drought exacerbated by climate change for over two decades. This extreme climate event is a clear threat to native plant communities. Artemisia tridentata is a keystone shrub species in western North America and is threatened by climate change, urbanization, and wildfire. A drought Genotype × Environment (G × E) experiment was conducted to assess phenotypic plasticity and differential gene expression in A. tridentata. The G × E experiment was performed on diploid A. tridentata seedlings from two populations (one from Idaho, USA and one from Utah, USA), which experience differing levels of drought stress during the summer months. Photosynthetic data, leaf temperature, and gene expression levels were compared between treatments and populations. The Utah population maintained higher photosynthetic rates and photosynthetic efficiency than the Idaho population under drought stress. The Utah population also exhibited far greater transcriptional plasticity than the Idaho population and expressed genes of response pathways distinct from those of the Idaho population. Populations of A. tridentata differ greatly in their drought response pathways, likely due to differences in response pathways that have evolved under distinct climatic regimes. Epigenetic processes likely contribute to the observed differences between the populations.

Population structure and hybridization under contemporary and future climates in a heteroploid foundational shrub species (Artemisia tridentata).

Current and past climatic changes can shift plant climatic niches, which may cause spatial overlap or separation between related taxa. The former often leads to hybridization and introgression, which may generate novel variation and influence the adaptive capacity of plants. An additional mechanism facilitating adaptations to novel environments and an important evolutionary driver in plants is polyploidy as the result of whole genome duplication. Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) is a landscape-dominating foundational shrub in the western United States which occupies distinct ecological niches, exhibiting diploid and tetraploid cytotypes. Tetraploids have a large impact on the species' landscape dominance as they occupy a preponderance of the arid spectrum of A. tridentata range. Three distinct subspecies are recognized, which co-occur in ecotones - the transition zone between two or more distinct ecological niches - allowing for hybridization and introgression. Here we assess the genomic distinctiveness and extent of hybridization among subspecies at different ploidies under both contemporary and predicted future climates. We sampled five transects throughout the western United States where a subspecies overlap was predicted using subspecies-specific climate niche models. Along each transect, we sampled multiple plots representing the parental and the potential hybrid habitats. We performed reduced representation sequencing and processed the data using a ploidy-informed genotyping approach. Population genomic analyses revealed distinct diploid subspecies and at least two distinct tetraploid gene pools, indicating independent origins of the tetraploid populations. We detected low levels of hybridization (2.5%) between the diploid subspecies, while we found evidence for increased admixture between ploidy levels (18%), indicating hybridization has an important role in the formation of tetraploids. Our analyses highlight the importance of subspecies co-occurrence within these ecotones to maintain gene exchange and potential formation of tetraploid populations. Genomic confirmations of subspecies in the ecotones support the subspecies overlap predicted by the contemporary climate niche models. However, future mid-century projections of subspecies niches predict a substantial loss in range and subspecies overlap. Thus, reductions in hybridization potential could affect new recruitment of genetically variable tetraploids that are vital to this species' ecological role. Our results underscore the importance of ecotone conservation and restoration.

A retrospective assessment of fuel break effectiveness for containing rangeland wildfires in the sagebrush biome.

Escalated wildfire activity within the western U.S. has widespread societal impacts and long-term consequences for the imperiled sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome. Shifts from historical fire regimes and the interplay between frequent disturbance and invasive annual grasses may initiate permanent state transitions as wildfire frequency outpaces sagebrush communities' innate capacity to recover. Therefore, wildfire management is at the core of conservation plans for sagebrush ecosystems, especially critical habitat for species of conservation concern such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse). Fuel breaks help facilitate wildfire suppression by modifying behavior through fuels modification and allowing safe access points for containment by firefighters. The Bureau of Land Management has proposed to roughly double the existing fuel break network in the western U.S., centered on the Great Basin. To our knowledge, no broad-scale examination of fuel break effectiveness or the environmental conditions under which fuel breaks are expected to be most effective has been conducted. We performed a retrospective assessment of probability of fuel break contributing to wildfire containment on recorded wildfire and fuel break interactions from 1985 to 2018 within the western U.S. We characterized environmental, fuels, and weather conditions within 500 m of wildfire contact, and within 5 km of the approaching wildfire. We used a binomial mixed model within a Bayesian framework to identify relationships between these variables and fuel break success. Fuel breaks were least successful in areas classified as having low resilience to disturbance and low resistance to invasion, in areas composed of primarily woody fuels, and when operating in high temperature and low precipitation conditions. Fuel breaks were most effective in areas where fine fuels dominated and in areas that were readily accessible. Maintenance history and fuel break type also contributed to the probability of containment. Overall results indicate a complex and sometimes paradoxical relationship between landscape characteristics that promote wildfire spread and those that impact fuel break effectiveness. Finally, we developed predictive maps of fuel break effectiveness by fuel break type to further elucidate these complex relationships and to inform urgently needed fuel break placement and maintenance priorities across the sagebrush biome.

Acclimation and hardening of a slow-growing woody species emblematic to western North America from in vitro plantlets.

Premise: Determining the tolerance of plant populations to climate change requires the development of biotechnological protocols producing genetically identical individuals used for genotype-by-environment experiments. Such protocols are missing for slow-growth, woody plants; to address this gap, this study uses Artemisia tridentata, a western North American keystone shrub, as model. Methods and Results: The production of individual lines is a two-step process: in vitro propagation under aseptic conditions followed by ex vitro acclimation and hardening. Due to aseptic growth conditions, in vitro plantlets exhibit maladapted phenotypes, and this protocol focuses on presenting an approach promoting morphogenesis for slow-growth, woody species. Survival was used as the main criterion determining successful acclimation and hardening. Phenotypic changes were confirmed by inspecting leaf anatomy, and shoot water potential was used to ensure that plantlets were not water stressed. Conclusions: Although our protocol has lower survival rates (11-41%) compared to protocols developed for herbaceous, fast-growing species, it provides a benchmark for slow-growth, woody species occurring in dry ecosystems.

Chapter 3.7.2. Detection of Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus 2 in the Pygmy Rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis) in Nevada, USA.

Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2 or Lagovirus GI.2) began circulating in wild lagomorph populations in the US in March 2020. To date, RHDV2 has been confirmed in several species of cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus spp.) and hares (Lepus spp.) throughout the US. In February 2022, RHDV2 was detected in a pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis). Pygmy rabbits are sagebrush obligates that only occur in the US Intermountain West and are a species of special concern due to the continual degradation and fragmentation of sagebrush-steppe landscapes. The spread of RHDV2 into occupied pygmy rabbit sites may pose a significant threat to their populations because of already declining numbers associated with habitat loss and high mortality rates.

Do plant-soil feedbacks promote coexistence in a sagebrush steppe?

Recent studies have shown the potential for negative plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) to promote stable coexistence, but have not quantified the stabilizing effect relative to other coexistence mechanisms. We conducted a field experiment to test the role of PSFs in stabilizing coexistence among four dominant sagebrush steppe species that appear to coexist stably, based on previous work with observational data and models. We then integrated the effects of PSF treatments on focal species across germination, survival, and first-year growth. To contribute to stable coexistence, soil microbes should have host-specific effects that result in negative feedbacks. Over two replicated growing seasons, our experiments consistently showed that soil microbes have negative effects on plant growth, but these effects were rarely host-specific. The uncommon host-specific effects were mostly positive at the germination stage, and negative for growth. Integrated effects of PSF across early life-stage vital rates showed that PSF-mediated self-limitation occasionally had large effects on projected plant biomass, but occurred inconsistently between years. Our results suggest that while microbially-mediated PSF may not be a common mechanism of coexistence in this community, it may still affect the relative abundance of dominant plant species via changes in host fitness. Our work also serves as a blueprint for future investigations that aim to identify underlying processes and test alternative mechanisms to explain important patterns in community ecology.

Reproductive compensatory photosynthesis in a semi-arid rangeland bunchgrass.

While increased foliar photosynthesis is well documented across many plant species in response to diverse modes of herbivory, the compensatory ability of photosynthetically active reproductive structures is unknown. To address this, we partially defoliated basal florets in seed heads of crested wheatgrass (Agropyron cristatum (L.) Gaertn.), an exotic Eurasian perennial bunchgrass widely distributed across North American sagebrush steppe. We followed direct and indirect responses by tracking post-clipping photosynthesis in clipped basal and unclipped distal florets, respectively, and comparing these to similar florets on unclipped seed heads. Compensatory photosynthesis was apparent 24 h after clipping; over the pre-anthesis period, clipped basal floret photosynthesis was + 62%, stomatal conductance was + 82%, and PSII photochemical yield was - 39% of unclipped controls. After anthesis, intact florets distal to clipped florets had modestly higher photosynthetic rates compared to controls, while basal floret rates did not differ between treatments. Compensatory photosynthesis reduced intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE; photosynthesis/stomatal conductance) 68-40% below controls over pre- and post-anthesis periods, respectively. Specific mass (dry mass/area) of clipped florets was - 15% of controls, while florets distal to these had specific mass 11% greater than distal or basal florets on unclipped seed heads. These results suggest damaged basal florets provided carbon to unaffected distal florets. This could explain crested wheatgrass's ability to produce viable seeds under conditions limiting to native bunchgrasses, and presents a novel mechanism germane to the development of convergent drought- and grazing-tolerance traits important to arid and semi-arid rangeland plant community resilience to climate variability.

A Bayesian multi-stage modelling framework to evaluate impacts of energy development on wildlife populations: an application to greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus).

Increased demand for domestic production of renewable energy has led to expansion of energy infrastructure across western North America. Much of the western U.S. comprises remote landscapes that are home to a variety of vegetation communities and wildlife species, including the imperiled sagebrush ecosystem and indicator species such as greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Geothermal sources in particular have potential for continued development across the western U.S. but impacts to greater sage-grouse and other species are unknown. To address this information gap, we describe a novel two-pronged methodology that analyzes impacts of geothermal energy production on pattern and process of greater sage-grouse populations using (a) before-after control-impact (BACI) measures of population growth and lek absence rates and (b) concurrent-to-operation evaluations of demographic rates. Growth and absence rate analyses utilized 14 years of lek survey data collected prior (2005-2011) and concurrent (2012-2018) to geothermal operations at two sites in Nevada, USA. Demographic analyses utilized relocation data, restricted inference to concurrent years, and incorporated 17 additional control sites. Demographic results were applied to >100 potential geothermal sites distributed across the study region to generate spatially explicit predictions of unrealized population-level impacts.•State-space and generalized linear models yield estimates of population growth and lek absence rates, respectively, before and after the onset of geothermal energy production; distances ranging from 2-30 km are evaluated as alternative control-impact footprint hypotheses; this provides inference about the spatial extent as well as the magnitude of impacts associated with geothermal development.•Estimation of important population demographic rates are implemented to investigate the processes by which geothermal energy development might reduce population growth; independent estimates of confounding, environmental effects from 17 control sites are made spatially explicit within 'impact' models to establish baseline conditions otherwise masked by collinearity.•Population matrix models are built using estimates from demographic analyses to provide landscape mapping of impacts associated with potential geothermal sites.

A genetic warning system for a hierarchically structured wildlife monitoring framework.

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa.

Fuel connectivity, burn severity, and seed bank survivorship drive ecosystem transformation in a semiarid shrubland.

A key challenge in ecology is understanding how multiple drivers interact to precipitate persistent vegetation state changes. These state changes may be both precipitated and maintained by disturbances, but predicting whether the state change will be fleeting or persistent requires an understanding of the mechanisms by which disturbance affects the alternative communities. In the sagebrush shrublands of the western United States, widespread annual grass invasion has increased fuel connectivity, which increases the size and spatial contiguity of fires, leading to postfire monocultures of introduced annual grasses (IAG). The novel grassland state can be persistent and is more likely to promote large fires than the shrubland it replaced. But the mechanisms by which prefire invasion and fire occurrence are linked to higher postfire flammability are not fully understood. A natural experiment to explore these interactions presented itself when we arrived in northern Nevada immediately after a 50,000 ha wildfire was extinguished. We hypothesized that the novel grassland state is maintained via a reinforcing feedback where higher fuel connectivity increases burn severity, which subsequently increases postfire IAG dispersal, seed survivorship, and fuel connectivity. We used a Bayesian joint species distribution model and structural equation model framework to assess the strength of the support for each element in this feedback pathway. We found that prefire fuel connectivity increased burn severity and that higher burn severity had mostly positive effects on the occurrence of IAG and another nonnative species and mostly negative or neutral relationships with all other species. Finally, we found that the abundance of IAG seeds in the seed bank immediately after a fire had a positive effect on the fuel connectivity 3 years after the fire, completing a positive feedback promoting IAG. These results demonstrate that the strength of the positive feedback is controlled by measurable characteristics of ecosystem structure, composition, and disturbance. Further, each node in the loop is affected independently by multiple global change drivers. It is possible that these characteristics can be modeled to predict threshold behavior and inform management actions to mitigate or slow the establishment of the grass-fire cycle, perhaps via targeted restoration applications or prefire fuel treatments.