Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 285
Filtrar
1.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 2707, 2024 Oct 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39367377

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Despite being preventable and curable, leprosy remains endemic in some undeveloped regions, including China. Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture (Wenshan prefecture) currently bears the highest leprosy burden in China. In this ecological study, we aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics as well as identify and visualize the high-risk townships of Wenshan prefecture using the most updated leprosy data from 2010 to 2022. METHODS: Geographical information system combined with spatial scan statistics was used for newly detected leprosy cases abstracted from the Leprosy Management Information System in China. Global Moran's I index was used to uncover the spatial pattern of leprosy at the township level. Spatial scan statistics, encompassing purely temporal, purely spatial, spatial variation in temporal trends, and space-time analysis, were implemented for detecting the risk clusters. RESULTS: Between 2010 and 2022, Wenshan prefecture detected 532 new leprosy cases, comprising 352 (66.17%) males and 180 (33.83%) females. The aggregated time primarily occurred between October 2010 and March 2014. The distribution pattern of newly detected leprosy cases was spatially clustered. We identified four high-risk spatial clusters encompassing 54.51% of the new cases. Furthermore, spatial variation in temporal trends highlighted one cluster as a potential high-risk area. Finally, two space-time clusters were detected, and the most likely cluster was predominantly located in the central and northwest regions of Wenshan prefecture, spanning from January 2010 to September 2013. CONCLUSIONS: In this ecology study, we characterized the epidemiological features and temporal and spatial patterns of leprosy in Wenshan prefecture using the most recent leprosy data between 2010 and 2022. Our findings offer scientific insights into the epidemiological profiles and spatiotemporal dynamics of leprosy in Wenshan prefecture. Clinicians and policymakers should pay particular attention to the identified clusters for the prevention and control of leprosy.


Assuntos
Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Hanseníase , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Humanos , Hanseníase/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Idoso , Criança , Fatores de Risco
2.
Healthcare (Basel) ; 12(18)2024 Sep 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39337188

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: There is a demand to make hospital management information beyond basic key performance indicators (KPIs) accessible for clinicians. METHODS: We developed an interactive application (IAPP) in R Shiny to visualize such information. We provided the IAPP source code online. As a use case, we recorded basic KPIs (numbers of patients (NPs), reimbursed valuation ratios (RVRs), mean length of stay (LOS)), main diagnoses (MDGNs), main procedures (MPRCs), and catchment area (CA) by district from April 2022 to March 2024 at the index department in central Germany, where a neurotrauma and spinal surgery service was resumed on 1 April 2022. Case mix indexes (CMIs) were calculated. We retrieved information about online-reported patient satisfaction (ORPS) from an online physician rating platform between January 2022 and March 2024. Information on longitudes and latitudes of the index department and neighbouring hospitals was collected. We calculated car travelling isochrones (CTIs) of the hospitals as a proxy variable for accessibility. Chi-square and Fisher's exact served as statistical tests. RESULTS: During the observation period, the monthly NPs increased from 26 to 43, the RVR showed a 3.96-fold increase, the CMI showed a 2.41-fold increase, and the LOS reached a steady state in the 2nd year after service resumption. CA (p = 0.03), MDGNs, and MPRCs diversified. ORPS trended towards better overall evaluation after service resumption (p = 0.09). CTI mapping identified a unique market position of the index department. CONCLUSIONS: The IAPP makes extended hospital management data accessible to clinicians, can inform other stakeholders in healthcare, and can be tailored to local conditions.

3.
Sensors (Basel) ; 24(18)2024 Sep 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39338634

RESUMO

Social sensing, using humans as sensors to collect disaster data, has emerged as a timely, cost-effective, and reliable data source. However, research has focused on the textual data. With advances in information technology, multimodal data such as images and videos are now shared on media platforms, aiding in-depth analysis of social sensing systems. This study proposed an analytical framework to extract disaster-related spatiotemporal information from multimodal social media data. Using a pre-trained multimodal neural network and a location entity recognition model, the framework integrates disaster semantics with spatiotemporal information, enhancing situational awareness. A case study of the April 2024 heavy rain event in Guangdong, China, using Weibo data, demonstrates that multimodal content correlates more strongly with rainfall patterns than textual data alone, offering a dynamic perception of disasters. These findings confirm the utility of multimodal social media data and offer a foundation for future research. The proposed framework offers valuable applications for emergency response, disaster relief, risk assessment, and witness discovery, and presents a viable approach for safety risk monitoring and early warning systems.


Assuntos
Redes Neurais de Computação , Mídias Sociais , Humanos , China , Desastres , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Desastres Naturais , Medição de Risco , Chuva
4.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 21496, 2024 09 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39277661

RESUMO

Using GIS technology, this study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of influenza incidence in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2023 based on influenza surveillance data. The study revealed a noticeable fluctuation trend in influenza incidence rates in Xinjiang, particularly notable spikes observed in 2019 and 2023. The results of the 3-year moving average showed a significant long-term upward trend in influenza incidence rates, confirmed by Theil-Sen method (MAD = 2.202, p < 0.01). Global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated significant positive spatial autocorrelation in influenza incidence rates from 2016 and from 2018 to 2023 (Moran's I > 0, P < 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis further revealed clustering patterns in different regions, with high-high clustering and low-high clustering predominating in northern Xinjiang, and low-low clustering predominating in southern Xinjiang. Hotspot analysis indicated a progressive rise in the number of influenza incidence hotspots, primarily concentrated in northern Xinjiang, particularly in Urumqi, Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, and Hotan Prefecture. Standard deviation ellipse analysis and the trajectory of influenza incidence gravity center migration showed that the transmission range of influenza in Xinjiang has been expanding, with the epidemic center gradually moving northward. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of influenza incidence in Xinjiang highlights the need for differentiated and precise influenza prevention and control strategies in different regions to address the changing trends in influenza prevalence.


Assuntos
Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Influenza Humana , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Incidência
5.
IEEE Open J Eng Med Biol ; 5: 760-768, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39246451

RESUMO

Goal: This study introduces a novel approach to examine the temporal-spatial information derived from High-Density surface Electromyography (HD-sEMG). By integrating and adapting postural control parameters into a framework for the analysis of myoelectrical activity, new metrics to evaluate muscle fatigue progression were proposed, investigating their ability to predict endurance time. Methods: Nine subjects performed a fatiguing isometric contraction of the lumbar erector spinae. Topographical amplitude maps were generated from two HD-sEMG grids. Once identified the coordinates of the muscle activity, novel metrics for quantifying the muscle spatial distribution over time were calculated. Results: Spatial metrics showed significant differences from beginning to end of the contraction, highlighting their ability of characterizing the neuromuscular adaptations in presence of fatigue. Additionally, linear regression models revealed strong correlations between these spatial metrics and endurance time. Conclusions: These innovative metrics can characterize the spatial distribution of muscle activity and predict the time of task failure.

6.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 20695, 2024 Sep 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39237653

RESUMO

Mountain landscapes can be fragmented due to various human activities such as tourism, road construction, urbanization, and agriculture. It can also be due to natural factors such as flash floods, glacial lake outbursts, land sliding, and climate change such as rising temperatures, heavy rains, or drought.The study's objective was to analyze the mountain landscape ecology of Pir Chinasi National Park under anthropogenic influence and investigate the impact of anthropogenic activities on the vegetation. This study observed spatiotemporal changes in vegetation due to human activities and associated climate change for the past 25 years (1995-2020) around Pir Chinasi National Park, Muzaffrabad, Pakistan. A structured questionnaire was distributed to 200 residents to evaluate their perceptions of land use and its effects on local vegetation. The findings reveal that 60% of respondents perceived spatiotemporal pressure on the park. On the other hand, the Landsat-oriented Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was utilized for the less than 10% cloud-covered images of Landsat 5, 7, and 8 to investigate the vegetation degradation trends of the study area. During the entire study period, the mean maximum NDVI was approximately 0.28 in 1995, whereas the mean minimum NDVI was - 2.8 in 2010. QGIS 3.8.2 was used for the data presentation. The impact of temperature on vegetation was also investigated for the study period and increasing temperature trends were observed. The study found that 10.81% (1469.08 km2) of the area experienced substantial deterioration, while 23.57% (3202.39 km2) experienced minor degradation. The total area of degraded lands was 34.38% (or 4671.47 km2). A marginal improvement in plant cover was observed in 24.88% of the regions, while 9.69% of the regions experienced a major improvement. According to the NDVI-Rainfall relationships, the area was found to be significantly impacted by human pressures and activities (r ≤ 0.50) driving vegetation changes covering 24.67% of the total area (3352.03 km2). The area under the influence of climatic variability and change (r ≥ 0.50 ≥ 0.90) accounted for 55.84% (7587.26 km2), and the area under both climatic and human stressors (r ≥ 0.50 < 0.70) was 64%. Sustainable land management practices of conservation tillage, integrated pest management, and agroforestry help preserve soil health, water quality, and biodiversity while reducing erosion, pollution, and the degradation of natural resources. landscape restoration projects of reforestation, wetland restoration, soil erosion control, and the removal of invasive species are essential to achieve land degradation neutrality at the watershed scale.

7.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 10: e52759, 2024 Aug 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39189893

RESUMO

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has not been associated with increases in suicidal behavior at the national, regional, or county level. However, previous studies were not conducted on a finer scale or adjusted for ecological factors. Objective: Our objective was to assess the fine-scale spatiotemporal association between self-harm and COVID-19 hospitalizations, while considering ecological factors. Methods: Using the French national hospital discharge database, we extracted data on hospitalizations for self-harm of patients older than 10 years (from 2019 to 2021) or for COVID-19 (from 2020 to 2021) in metropolitan France. We first calculated monthly standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for COVID-19 between March 2020 and December 2021, using a Besag, York, and Mollié spatiotemporal model. Next, we entered the SIRs into an ecological regression in order to test the association between hospital admissions for self-harm and those for COVID-19. Lastly, we adjusted for ecological variables with time lags of 0 to 6 months. Results: Compared with a smoothed SIR of ≤1, smoothed SIRs from 1 to 3, from 3 to 4, and greater than 4 for COVID-19 hospital admissions were associated with a subsequent increase in hospital admissions for self-harm, with a time lag of 2 to 4 months, 4 months, and 6 months, respectively. Conclusions: A high SIR for hospital admissions for COVID-19 was a risk factor for hospital admission for self-harm some months after the epidemic peaks. This finding emphasizes the importance of monitoring and seeking to prevent suicide attempts outside the epidemic peak periods.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Hospitalização , Comportamento Autodestrutivo , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Comportamento Autodestrutivo/epidemiologia , França/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Feminino , Adulto , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Idoso , Adulto Jovem , Criança , Incidência
8.
medRxiv ; 2024 Aug 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39185511

RESUMO

Birth defects are a leading cause of infant mortality in the United States, but little is known about causes of many types of birth defects. Spatiotemporal disease mapping to identify high-prevalence areas, is a potential strategy to narrow the search for potential environmental and other causes that aggregate over space and time. We described the spatial and temporal trends of the prevalence of birth defects in North Carolina during 2003-2015, using data on live births obtained from the North Carolina Birth Defects Monitoring Program. By employing a Bayesian space-time Poisson model, we estimated spatial and temporal trends of non-chromosomal and chromosomal birth defects. During 2003-2015, 52,524 (3.3%) of 1,598,807 live births had at least one recorded birth defect. The prevalence of non-chromosomal birth defects decreased from 3.8% in 2003 to 2.9% in 2015. Spatial modeling suggested a large geographic variation in non-chromosomal birth defects at census-tract level, with the highest prevalence in southeastern North Carolina. The strong spatial heterogeneity revealed in this work allowed to identify geographic areas with higher prevalence of non-chromosomal birth defects in North Carolina. This variation will help inform future research focused on epidemiologic studies of birth defects to identify etiologic factors.

9.
Vet Res Commun ; 48(5): 3461-3468, 2024 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39153112

RESUMO

Leptospirosis is a worldwide re-emerging zoonotic disease. The study was conducted to estimate the Seroprevalence of canine leptospirosis in a total of 450 dogs, from a total of 97 puppies and 353 adult dogs selected for examination Sampling, started from January to December 2023 in District Kasur in the province Punjab of the country Pakistan. Leptospira IgG ELISA kit manufactured by DRG Instruments GmbH, Germany was used for the screening of canine Leptospira antibodies. Out of 450 tested dogs, 183 dogs (40.67%) were tested positive for Leptospira antibody for the screening of Leptospira antibodies. The estimated Seroprevalence of leptospirosis in various age groups of dogs, were 23.7% (23/97) and 45.3% (160/353), in puppies and adults, respectively (P < 0.05). It was found that out of the sampled dogs, a total of 35/127 (27.6%), 29/100 (29%), 73/130 (56.2%), and 46/93 (49.5%) dogs were tested seropositive for Leptospira antibodies in winter, spring, summer and fall, respectively (P < 0.05).


Assuntos
Doenças do Cão , Leptospirose , Animais , Leptospirose/veterinária , Leptospirose/epidemiologia , Leptospirose/sangue , Cães , Doenças do Cão/epidemiologia , Doenças do Cão/microbiologia , Doenças do Cão/sangue , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Masculino , Feminino , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Leptospira/imunologia , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Anticorpos Antibacterianos/sangue , Estações do Ano
10.
Front Sports Act Living ; 6: 1375513, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39165645

RESUMO

Player movement is a fundamental component of evaluating performance in most team sports. Movement can be evaluated across multiple scales, referring to the function of anatomical structures through various planes of motion or an individual regulating their field position based on the movement of opposition players. Developments in commercially available tracking systems have afforded end users the ability to investigate the spatiotemporal features of movement in fine detail. These advancements, in conjunction with overlaid contextual information, have provided insights into the strategies adopted by players in relation to their movement. Understanding movement beyond its semantic value allows practitioners to make informed decisions surrounding performance evaluation and training design. This investigation proposes a framework to guide the analysis of player movement within team sports environments. The framework describes how operational standards for assessing movement can be designed in reference to theory and a set training philosophy. Such practice allows for the spatial and temporal complexities within team sports to be described and could potentially lead to better-applied outcomes through greater interdisciplinary collaboration and an improved holistic understanding of movement. To inform its development, this study evaluates the current research and identifies several open questions to guide future investigations.

11.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1426503, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39175902

RESUMO

Background: Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a major infectious disease that threatens human health. China is a high tuberculosis-burden country and the Hunan Province has a high tuberculosis notification rate. However, no comprehensive analysis has been conducted on the spatiotemporal distribution of PTB in the Hunan Province. Therefore, this study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of PTB in the Hunan Province to enable targeted control policies for tuberculosis. Methods: We obtained data about cases of PTB in the Hunan Province notified from January 2014 to December 2022 from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Time-series analysis was conducted to analyze the trends in PTB case notifications. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to detect the spatial distribution characteristics of PTB at a county level in Hunan Province. Space-time scan analysis was conducted to confirm specific times and locations of PTB clustering. Results: A total of 472,826 new cases of PTB were notified in the Hunan Province during the 9-year study period. The mean PTB notification rate showed a gradual, fluctuating downward trend over time. The number of PTB notifications per month showed significant seasonal variation, with an annual peak in notifications in January or March, followed by a fluctuating decline after March, reaching a trough in November or December. Moran's I index of spatial autocorrelation revealed that the notification rate of PTB by county ranged from 0.117 to 0.317 during the study period, indicating spatial clustering. The hotspot areas of PTB were mainly concentrated in the Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture, Zhangjiajie City, and Hengyang City. The most likely clustering region was identified in the central-southern part of the province, and a secondary clustering region was identified in the northwest part of the province. Conclusion: This study identified the temporal trend and spatial distribution pattern of tuberculosis in the Hunan Province. PTB clustered mainly in the central-southern and northwestern regions of the province. Disease control programs should focus on strengthening tuberculosis control in these regions.


Assuntos
Análise Espaço-Temporal , Tuberculose Pulmonar , Humanos , China/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Estações do Ano , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Notificação de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente
12.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 19608, 2024 08 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39179692

RESUMO

This study aims to quantify the effectiveness of lockdown as a non-pharmacological solution for managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily COVID-19 death counts were collected for four states: California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina. The effectiveness of the lockdown was studied and the number of people saved during 7 days was evaluated. Five neural network models (MLP, FFNN, CFNN, ENN, and NARX) were implemented, and the results indicate that FFNN is the best prediction model. Based on this model, the total number of survivors over a 7-day period is 211, 270, 989, and 60 in California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina, respectively. The coefficients and weights of the FFNN for each state differ due to various factors, including socio-demographic conditions and the behavior of citizens towards lockdown laws. New Jersey and South Carolina have the most lockdowns and the least.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , South Carolina/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Quarentena , New Jersey/epidemiologia , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Redes Neurais de Computação , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemias , California/epidemiologia , Georgia/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos
13.
Glob Heart ; 19(1): 63, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39132013

RESUMO

Objective: Despite significant advancements in understanding risk factors and treatment strategies, ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide, particularly within specific regions in Brazil, where the disease is a burden. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the risk of hospitalization and mortality from IHD in the state of Paraná (Brazil), using spatial analysis to identify areas with higher risk based on socioeconomic, demographic and health variables. Methods: This is an ecological study based on secondary and retrospective IHD hospitalization and mortality data obtained from the Brazilian Hospitalization and Mortality Information Systems during the 2010-2021 period. Data were analyzed for 399 municipalities and 22 health regions in the state of Paraná. To assess the spatial patterns of the disease and identify relative risk (RR) areas, we constructed a risk model by Bayesian inference using the R-INLA and SpatialEpi packages in R software. Results: A total of 333,229 hospitalizations and 73,221 deaths occurred in the analyzed period, and elevated RR of hospitalization (RR = 27.412, CI 21.801; 34.466) and mortality (RR = 15.673, CI 2.148; 114.319) from IHD occurred in small-sized municipalities. In addition, medium-sized municipalities also presented elevated RR of hospitalization (RR = 6.533, CI 1.748; 2.006) and mortality (RR = 6.092, CI 1.451; 2.163) from IHD. Hospitalization and mortality rates were higher in white men aged 40-59 years. A negative association was found between Municipal Performance Index (IPDM) and IHD hospitalization and mortality. Conclusion: Areas with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from IHD were found in small and medium-sized municipalities in the state of Paraná, Brazil. These results suggest a deficit in health care attention for IHD cases in these areas, potentially due to a low distribution of health care resources.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Hospitalização , Isquemia Miocárdica , Humanos , Isquemia Miocárdica/mortalidade , Isquemia Miocárdica/epidemiologia , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Brasil/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Adulto , Idoso , Medição de Risco/métodos , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências
14.
Comput Methods Programs Biomed ; 255: 108369, 2024 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39146759

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The evidence on the role of hemodynamics in aorta pathophysiology has yet to be robustly translated into clinical applications, to improve risk stratification of aortic diseases. Motivated by the need to enrich the current understanding of the pathophysiology of the ascending aorta (AAo), this study evaluates in vivo how large-scale aortic flow coherence is affected by AAo dilation and aortic valve phenotype. METHODS: A complex networks-based approach is applied to 4D flow MRI data to quantify subject-specific AAo flow coherence in terms of correlation between axial velocity waveforms and the aortic flow rate waveform along the cardiac cycle. The anatomical length of persistence of such correlation is quantified using the recently proposed network metric average weighted curvilinear distance (AWCD). The analysis considers 107 subjects selected to allow an ample stratification in terms of aortic valve morphology, absence/presence of AAo dilation and of aortic valve stenosis. RESULTS: The analysis highlights that the presence of AAo dilation as well as of bicuspid aortic valve phenotype breaks the physiological AAo flow coherence, quantified in terms of AWCD. Of notice, it emerges that cycle-average blood flow rate and relative AAo dilation are main determinants of AWCD, playing opposite roles in promoting and hampering the persistence of large-scale flow coherence in AAo, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study can contribute to broaden the current mechanistic link between large-scale blood flow coherence and aortic pathophysiology, with the prospect of enriching the existing tools for the in vivo non-invasive hemodynamic risk assessment for aortic diseases onset and progression.


Assuntos
Aorta , Valva Aórtica , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética , Fenótipo , Humanos , Aorta/diagnóstico por imagem , Aorta/fisiopatologia , Valva Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagem , Valva Aórtica/fisiopatologia , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética/métodos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Hemodinâmica , Velocidade do Fluxo Sanguíneo , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagem , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/fisiopatologia , Idoso , Doença da Válvula Aórtica Bicúspide/fisiopatologia , Doença da Válvula Aórtica Bicúspide/diagnóstico por imagem
15.
Environ Sci Technol ; 58(32): 14068-14077, 2024 Aug 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39099403

RESUMO

The global water cycle has experienced significant changes due to the interplay of climate shifts and human activities, resulting in more frequent and severe droughts and floods. These shifts have started to impact the operational efficiency of water treatment and delivery systems. This, in turn, has implications for the economic performance of these assets and the climate-impacted cost of their financing through the issuing of municipal bonds. Analyzing a decade of water bond data (2009-2019), this study offers empirical evidence for the impact of flood and drought risks on bond investor demand to offset water risks. The results reveal that bond markets factored in coastal flood risks between 2013 and 2019, adjusting by 3-6 basis points (bps) per risk score unit, and riverine flood risks from 2009 to 2013, with a 5-11 basis points increase per risk score unit. These effects were primarily driven by bonds issued in the Pacific Coast and Great Plains regions, respectively. In contrast, the pricing of drought risks in the bond market followed a more nuanced pattern. Additionally, we show the channeling effects of water consumption and investor perceptions of climate change on water risk pricing in the bond market. These findings have significant implications for water risk management in the public sector as regions with heightened water risk exposure are perceived as riskier by market participants, leading to a higher cost of capital for municipalities and water agencies.


Assuntos
Secas , Inundações , Mudança Climática , Abastecimento de Água , Humanos
16.
Heliyon ; 10(14): e34633, 2024 Jul 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39130402

RESUMO

Background: Pregnancy termination is a major public health problem, and complications of unsafe abortion are among the proximate and major causes of maternal mortality. Mapping the trend and spatiotemporal variation and identifying factors that are responsible for the changes in pregnancy termination help achieve the sustainable development goal of reducing maternal mortality in Ethiopia by understanding the epidemiology and regional variations. Methods: Data from the 2000-2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey were analyzed with a total weighted sample of 40,983 women of reproductive age. Variables with a p-value <0.05 in a logit multivariable decomposition analysis were considered significant predictors of the decline in pregnancy termination over time. Spatial analysis was used separately for each survey to show the changes in regional disparities in pregnancy termination in Ethiopia. Results: The magnitude of pregnancy termination among women of reproductive age decreased by 39.5 %, from 17.7 % in 2000 to 10.7 % in 2016. The difference in the effects of literacy, working status, marital status, age at first intercourse, age at first cohabitation, knowledge about contraceptives, and knowledge of the ovulatory cycle were the significant predictors that contributed to the change in pregnancy termination over time. Significant clusters of pregnancy terminations were observed in central and northern Ethiopia (Addis Ababa, eastern Amhara, and Tigray regions). Conclusions: Despite the substantial decrease in terminated pregnancies over time in Ethiopia, the magnitude is still high. The government should focus on promoting education for girls and women, providing reproductive health education, including access to contraceptives, and raising the minimum age for girls to engage in sexual activities or marriage by implementing policies.

17.
Sci Total Environ ; 951: 175819, 2024 Nov 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39197795

RESUMO

Dust events in Northwest China have become more variable under regional climate change. Prior research has largely overlooked the spatial-temporal distribution of dust event duration (DED) and its long-term trend. This study systematically analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of DED in Northwest China and explored their associated factors using satellite-derived air quality datasets during 2000-2021. We find that dust event frequency (DEF) and DED generally showed a significant decreasing trend since 2000, but in 2013, DEF and DED started to rebound, with DED in particular, showing a more pronounced rebound in most parts of Northwest China. Correlation analysis with many factors suggests that the rise in near-surface wind speed since 2013 may primarily account for the increase in DEF and DED by enhancing dust generation and suppressing dust dry deposition processes. Further projections reveal that regions close to dust sources are likely to have more frequent and prolonged dust events, while areas far from dust sources will experience a decrease in DEF and DED in the future. These findings are crucial for understanding dust event variations and for guiding local dust management strategies.

18.
Ecol Soc ; 29(2): 1-25, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38993652

RESUMO

Coral reef resilience is eroding at multiple spatial scales globally, with broad implications for coastal communities, and is thus a critical challenge for managing marine social-ecological systems (SESs). Many researchers believe that external stressors will cause key coral reefs to die by the end of the 21st century, virtually eliminating essential ecological and societal benefits. Here, we propose the use of resilience-based approaches to understand the dynamics of coral reef SESs and subsequent drivers of coral reef decline. Previous research has demonstrated the effectiveness of these methods, not only for tracking environmental change, but also for providing warning in advance of transitions, possibly allowing time for management interventions. The flexibility and utility of these methods make them ideal for assessing complex systems; however, they have not been used to study aquatic ecosystem dynamics at the global scale. Here, we evaluate these methods for examining spatiotemporal change in coral reef SESs across the global seascape and assess the subsequent impacts on coral reef resilience. We found that while univariate indicators failed to provide clear signals, multivariate resilience-based approaches effectively captured coral reef SES dynamics, unveiling distinctive patterns of variation throughout the global coral reef seascape. Additionally, our findings highlight global spatiotemporal variation, indicating patterns of degraded resilience. This degradation was reflected regionally, particularly in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean SESs. These results underscore the utility of resilience-based approaches in assessing environmental change in SESs, detecting spatiotemporal variation at the global and regional scales, and facilitating more effective monitoring and management of coral reef SESs.

19.
Heliyon ; 10(13): e33855, 2024 Jul 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39071614

RESUMO

The electric power industry in China has experienced significant growth in recent years. Despite efforts to improve safety management in the industry, accidents still occur frequently. This study aimed to analyze the personal casualty accidents in the electric power industry from 2012 to 2021. Specific methods used include descriptive analysis, principal component analysis, and Theil index model. The results indicated that fall, electric shock, and collapse were the primary types of accidents, accounting for 59.65 % of all accidents. Accidents were higher in April and August, but lower in February. While the accident rate was relatively low on Mondays, the fatality rate was higher on Mondays, Thursdays, and Fridays. Taking into account accidents, workload, and labor, we found that Ningxia, Hainan, and Guangxi exhibited subpar levels of safety management within the electric power industry. The overall difference in the number of deaths in 31 provinces was significant in 2012 and 2016. It was significantly reduced in 2021. In terms of the proportion of intraregional and interregional differences, there were significant differences in the number of accidents and fatalities between provinces in the Central China and North China regions. This study provides valuable insights for enterprises to formulate accident prevention strategies and for the government to develop relevant policies.

20.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1412362, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39050603

RESUMO

Background: Intestinal infectious diseases are a global concern in terms of morbidity, and they are closely linked to socioeconomic variables such as quality of life, weather and access to healthcare services. Despite progress in spatial analysis tools and geographic information systems in epidemiology, studies in Ecuador that evaluate temporal trends, specific geographic groups, and their correlation with socioeconomic variables are lacking. The absence of such information makes it challenging to formulate public health policies. This study sought to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of these diseases in Ecuador, along with their correlation with socioeconomic variables. Methods: In Ecuador, the study was carried out in a continental territory, focusing on data related to intestinal infectious diseases collected from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos) during the period from 2014 to 2019. This study involved spatial and temporal analyses using tools such as the global Moran's index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association to identify spatial clustering patterns and autocorrelation. Additionally, correlations between morbidity rates and socioeconomic variables were examined. Results: During the investigated period, Ecuador registered 209,668 cases of these diseases. Notable variations in case numbers were identified, with a 9.2% increase in 2019 compared to the previous year. The most impacted group was children under 5 years old, and the highest rates were centered in the southern and southwestern regions of the country, with Limón Indanza and Chunchi being the cantons with the highest rates, notably showing a significant increase in Limón Indanza. Additionally, there were significant correlations between morbidity rates and socioeconomic variables, school dropout rates, low birth weight, and access to water services. Conclusion: This study emphasizes the importance of considering socioeconomic variables when addressing these diseases in Ecuador. Understanding these correlations and geospatial trends can guide the development of health policies and specific intervention programs to reduce the incidence in identified high-risk areas. More specific research is needed to understand the underlying causes of variability in morbidity and develop effective prevention strategies.


Assuntos
Fatores Socioeconômicos , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Humanos , Equador/epidemiologia , Pré-Escolar , Adolescente , Criança , Lactente , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Adulto Jovem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Enteropatias/epidemiologia , Idoso , Recém-Nascido , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA