Amazonia trees have limited capacity to acclimate plant hydraulic properties in response to long-term drought.

The fate of tropical forests under future climate change is dependent on the capacity of their trees to adjust to drier conditions. The capacity of trees to withstand drought is likely to be determined by traits associated with their hydraulic systems. However, data on whether tropical trees can adjust hydraulic traits when experiencing drought remain rare. We measured plant hydraulic traits (e.g. hydraulic conductivity and embolism resistance) and plant hydraulic system status (e.g. leaf water potential, native embolism and safety margin) on >150 trees from 12 genera (36 species) and spanning a stem size range from 14 to 68 cm diameter at breast height at the world's only long-running tropical forest drought experiment. Hydraulic traits showed no adjustment following 15 years of experimentally imposed moisture deficit. This failure to adjust resulted in these drought-stressed trees experiencing significantly lower leaf water potentials, and higher, but variable, levels of native embolism in the branches. This result suggests that hydraulic damage caused by elevated levels of embolism is likely to be one of the key drivers of drought-induced mortality following long-term soil moisture deficit. We demonstrate that some hydraulic traits changed with tree size, however, the direction and magnitude of the change was controlled by taxonomic identity. Our results suggest that Amazonian trees, both small and large, have limited capacity to acclimate their hydraulic systems to future droughts, potentially making them more at risk of drought-induced mortality.

Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to drought introduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.