Critical thermal maxima in neotropical ants at colony, population, and community levels.

Global warming is exposing many organisms to severe thermal conditions and is having impacts at multiple levels of biological organisation, from individuals to species and beyond. Biotic and abiotic factors can influence organismal thermal tolerance, shaping responses to climate change. In eusocial ants, thermal tolerance can be measured at the colony level (among workers within colonies), the population level (among colonies within species), and the community level (among species). We analysed critical thermal maxima (CTmax) across these three levels for ants in a semiarid region of northeastern Brazil. We examined the individual and combined effects of phylogeny, body size (BS), and nesting microhabitat on community-level CTmax and the individual effects of BS on population- and colony-level CTmax. We sampled 1864 workers from 99 ant colonies across 47 species, for which we characterised CTmax, nesting microhabitat, BS, and phylogenetic history. Among species, CTmax ranged from 39.3 to 49.7°C, and community-level differences were best explained by phylogeny and BS. For more than half of the species, CTmax differed significantly among colonies in a way that was not explained by BS. Notably, there was almost as much variability in CTmax within colonies as within the entire community. Monomorphic and polymorphic species exhibited similar levels of CTmax variability within colonies, a pattern not always explained by BS. This vital intra- and inter-colony variability in thermal tolerance is likely allows tropical ant species to better cope with climate change. Our results underscore why ecological research must examine multiple levels of biological organisation.

A Comprehensive Review of Climate Change and Plant Diseases in Brazil.

Analyzing the impacts of climate change on phytosanitary problems in Brazil is crucial due to the country's special role in global food security as one of the largest producers of essential commodities. This review focuses on the effects of climate change on plant diseases and discusses its main challenges in light of Brazil's diverse agricultural landscape. To assess the risk of diseases caused by fungi, bacteria, viruses, oomycetes, nematodes, and spiroplasms, we surveyed 304 pathosystems across 32 crops of economic importance from 2005 to 2022. Results show that diseases caused by fungi account for 79% of the pathosystems evaluated. Predicting the occurrence of diseases in a changing climate is a complex challenge, and the continuity of this work is strategic for Brazil's agricultural defense. The future risk scenarios analyzed here aim to help guide disease mitigation for cropping systems. Despite substantial progress and ongoing efforts, further research will be needed to effectively prevent economic and environmental damage.

Physiological resilience of intertidal chitons in a persistent upwelling coastal region.

Current climate projections for mid-latitude regions globally indicate an intensification of wind-driven coastal upwelling due to warming conditions. The dynamics of mid-latitude coastal upwelling are marked by environmental variability across temporal scales, which affect key physiological processes in marine calcifying organisms and can impact their large-scale distribution patterns. In this context, marine invertebrates often exhibit phenotypic plasticity, enabling them to adapt to environmental change. In this study, we examined the physiological performance (i.e., metabolism, Thermal Performance Curves, and biomass and calcification rates) of individuals of the intertidal mollusk Chiton granosus, a chiton found from northern Peru to Cape Horn (5° to 55°S). Our spatial study design indicated a pattern of contrasting conditions among locations. The Talcaruca site, characterized by persistent upwelling and serving as a biogeographic break, exhibited lower pH and carbonate saturation states, along with higher pCO2, compared to the sites located to the north and south of this location (Huasco and Los Molles, respectively). In agreement with the spatial pattern in carbonate system parameters, long-term temperature records showed lower temperatures that changed faster over synoptic scales (1-15 days) at Talcaruca, in contrast to the more stable conditions at the sites outside the break. Physiological performance traits from individuals from the Talcaruca population exhibited higher values and more significant variability, along with significantly broader and greater warming tolerance than chitons from the Huasco and Los Molles populations. Moreover, marked changes in local abundance patterns over three years suggested population-level responses to the challenging environmental conditions at the biogeographic break. Thus, C. granosus from the Talcaruca upwelling zone represents a local population with wide tolerance ranges that may be capable of withstanding future upwelling intensification on the Southern Eastern Pacific coast and likely serving as a source of propagules for less adapted populations.

Catastrophic floods and antimicrobial resistance: Interconnected threats with wide-ranging impacts.

•Climate change and AMR combined worsen vulnerabilities, accelerating AMR spread.•Floods can spread AMR-related pathogens, impacting health, agriculture, and ecosystems.•Integrated strategies are needed to address climate change and AMR, enhancing sanitation.

Climate change impacts on dengue transmission areas in Espírito Santo state, Brazil.

Espírito Santo state, in Brazil, is a dengue-endemic region predicted to suffer from an increase in temperature and drought due to climate change, which could affect the areas with active dengue virus transmission. The study objective was modeling climatic factors and climate change effects in zones suitable for dengue virus transmission in Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Data on dengue reports from 2022 were used to determine climatic variables related to spatial distribution. The climate change projections were generated for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s for three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. A maximum entropy algorithm was used to construct the three models and projections, and the results were used to calculate the ensemble mean. Isothermality, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and annual precipitation impacted the model. Projections indicated a change in areas suitable for dengue virus transmission, varying from -30.44% in the 2070s (SSP1-2.6) to +13.07% in the 2070s (SSP5-8.5) compared to 2022. The coastal regions were consistently suitable in all scenarios. Urbanized and highly populated areas were predicted to persist with active dengue transmission in Espírito Santo state, posing challenges for public health response.

Limited drought tolerance in the neotropical seasonally dry forest plants impairs future species richness.

Neotropical seasonal dry forest (NSDF) is one of the most threatened ecosystems according to global climate change predictions. Nonetheless, few studies have evaluated the global climate change impacts on diversity patterns of NSDF plants. The lack of whole biome-scale approaches restricts our understanding of global climate change consequences in the high beta-diverse NSDF. We analysed the impact of global climate change on species distribution ranges, species richness, and assemblage composition (beta diversity) for 1,178 NSDF species. We used five representative plant families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) within the NSDF: Cactaceae, Capparaceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, and Zygophyllaceae. We reconstructed potential species distributions in the present and future (2040-2080), considering an intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and two dispersal ability assumptions on the taxa. Using a resource use scores index, we related climate-induced range contractions with species' water stress tolerance. Even under a favourable dispersal scenario, species distribution and richness showed future significant declines across those sites where mean temperature and precipitation seasonality are expected to increase. Further, changes in species range distribution in the future correlated positively with potential use of resources in Fabaceae. Results suggest that biotic heterogenization will likely be the short-term outcome at biome scale under dispersal limitations. Nonetheless, by 2080, the prevailing effect under both dispersal assumptions will be homogenization, even within floristic nuclei. This information is critical for further defining new areas worth protecting and future planning of mitigation actions for both species and the whole biome.

Methane-cycling microbial communities from Amazon floodplains and upland forests respond differently to simulated climate change scenarios.

Seasonal floodplains in the Amazon basin are important sources of methane (CH4), while upland forests are known for their sink capacity. Climate change effects, including shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, may alter the functionality of soil microbial communities, leading to uncertain changes in CH4 cycling dynamics. To investigate the microbial feedback under climate change scenarios, we performed a microcosm experiment using soils from two floodplains (i.e., Amazonas and Tapajós rivers) and one upland forest. We employed a two-factorial experimental design comprising flooding (with non-flooded control) and temperature (at 27 °C and 30 °C, representing a 3 °C increase) as variables. We assessed prokaryotic community dynamics over 30 days using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and qPCR. These data were integrated with chemical properties, CH4 fluxes, and isotopic values and signatures. In the floodplains, temperature changes did not significantly affect the overall microbial composition and CH4 fluxes. CH4 emissions and uptake in response to flooding and non-flooding conditions, respectively, were observed in the floodplain soils. By contrast, in the upland forest, the higher temperature caused a sink-to-source shift under flooding conditions and reduced CH4 sink capability under dry conditions. The upland soil microbial communities also changed in response to increased temperature, with a higher percentage of specialist microbes observed. Floodplains showed higher total and relative abundances of methanogenic and methanotrophic microbes compared to forest soils. Isotopic data from some flooded samples from the Amazonas river floodplain indicated CH4 oxidation metabolism. This floodplain also showed a high relative abundance of aerobic and anaerobic CH4 oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea. Taken together, our data indicate that CH4 cycle dynamics and microbial communities in Amazonian floodplain and upland forest soils may respond differently to climate change effects. We also highlight the potential role of CH4 oxidation pathways in mitigating CH4 emissions in Amazonian floodplains.

The role of microbial communities in biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gas emissions within tropical soda lakes.

Although anthropogenic activities are the primary drivers of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is crucial to acknowledge that wetlands are a significant source of these gases. Brazil's Pantanal, the largest tropical inland wetland, includes numerous lacustrine systems with freshwater and soda lakes. This study focuses on soda lakes to explore potential biogeochemical cycling and the contribution of biogenic GHG emissions from the water column, particularly methane. Both seasonal variations and the eutrophic status of each examined lake significantly influenced GHG emissions. Eutrophic turbid lakes (ET) showed remarkable methane emissions, likely due to cyanobacterial blooms. The decomposition of cyanobacterial cells, along with the influx of organic carbon through photosynthesis, accelerated the degradation of high organic matter content in the water column by the heterotrophic community. This process released byproducts that were subsequently metabolized in the sediment leading to methane production, more pronounced during periods of increased drought. In contrast, oligotrophic turbid lakes (OT) avoided methane emissions due to high sulfate levels in the water, though they did emit CO2 and N2O. Clear vegetated oligotrophic turbid lakes (CVO) also emitted methane, possibly from organic matter input during plant detritus decomposition, albeit at lower levels than ET. Over the years, a concerning trend has emerged in the Nhecolândia subregion of Brazil's Pantanal, where the prevalence of lakes with cyanobacterial blooms is increasing. This indicates the potential for these areas to become significant GHG emitters in the future. The study highlights the critical role of microbial communities in regulating GHG emissions in soda lakes, emphasizing their broader implications for global GHG inventories. Thus, it advocates for sustained research efforts and conservation initiatives in this environmentally critical habitat.

Does Trust Lead to the Adoption of a Productive Climate Attitude? Relationship Between Trust, Corruption, and Climate Attitude in Developing Regions.

This study examines the relationship between institutional trust from an individual and societal perspective and perceived corruption and climate attitudes of individuals in Latin America. To this end, multilevel modeling was used to test whether the attitudes of individuals from 285 regions of Latin America are influenced by these constructs. Based on the results, it was found that in contrast to studies in developed countries, where institutional trust is positively associated with pro-climate attitudes, in Latin America institutional trust acts as an inhibiting factor and is inversely related to climate attitudes. Furthermore, the perception of corruption in public institutions was also identified as a factor inhibiting collective action to combat climate change. Moderation analysis revealed that individuals' level of education significantly influences this relationship, with a notable difference in climate attitudes between individuals with low and high levels of trust, especially among those with less education. These findings highlight the importance of taking regional specificities into account when examining the relationship between institutional trust, perceptions of corruption, and climate attitudes, and underscore the need for public policies that promote transparency and accountability of institutions to foster effective collective action on climate change.

Characterization and detailed mapping of C by spectral sensor for soils of the Western Plateau of São Paulo.

Soil mineralogy and texture are directly related to soil carbon due to the physical properties of the clay surface. Traditional techniques for quantifying carbon in soil are time-consuming and expensive, making large-scale quantification for mapping unfeasible. The alternative is the use of soil sensors, such as diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS), an economical, fast, and accurate technique for predicting carbon stocks. In this sense, this study aimed to (a) investigate the relationship of C with different soil mineralogical, chemical, and physical attributes for different geological and geomorphological compartments; (b) understand which spectral bands are most important for estimating C content; (c) estimate C content from diffuse reflectance spectroscopy using different mathematical techniques and indicate which one is the best for tropical soil conditions; and (d) map C contents in detail. The study area was the Western Plateau of São Paulo (WPSP), which covers approximately 13 million hectares (~ 48% of the State of São Paulo, Brazil). A total of 265 samples were collected in this area. The attributes clay, silt, sand, crystalline and non-crystalline iron, base saturation, soil density, total pore volume, total C, C stock, kaolinite/(kaolinite + gibbsite) and hematite/(hematite + goethite), hematite and goethite contents, and spectral curves were evaluated. The spectra were recorded at 0.5-nm intervals, with an integration time of 2.43 nm s-1 over the 350 to 2500-nm range (350-800 nm-visible-VIS and 801-2500 nm-near-infrared-NIR). The data were subjected to descriptive statistics, Spearman correlation, stepwise analysis, and cluster grouping for characterization purposes; partial least squares regression (PLSR) and random forest (RF) for estimation purposes; and geostatistics analysis for creation of spatial maps. Our results indicate that the highest C contents are associated with more clayey soils, oxidic mineralogy, higher total pore volume, and lower soil density in highly dissected basalt compartments. The random forest algorithm associated with the Vis-NIR spectral range is more efficient for estimating and mapping C contents. This suggests that integrating diffuse reflectance spectroscopy with machine learning techniques holds promise for shaping public policies related to land use, mitigating CO2 emissions, and facilitating the implementation of carbon credit policies in a rapid and economically efficient manner.

Stability Evaluation for Heat Tolerance in Lettuce: Implications and Recommendations.

Lettuce is an important cool-temperature crop, and its principal abiotic stress is low heat tolerance. Lettuce production has become more challenging in the context of global warming changes. Hence, the main objective of this research was to investigate the relationship between stability and lettuce heat tolerance. Field and greenhouse trials were run in 2015 (summer) and 2016 (fall and spring). The environments were composed of a combination of season and place (field, glass, and plastic greenhouse), and the assessed genotypes were BRS Leila and Mediterrânea, Elisa, Everglades, Simpson, and Vanda. Statistical analysis showed a significant effect (p < 0.05) of environments (E), genotypes (G), and the GEI. BRS Leila, Elisa, and BRS Mediterrânea showed the greatest means to the first anthesis in suitable environments (milder temperatures). Among these cultivars, BRS Mediterrânea was the most stable and adapted to hot environments. The environmental conditions studied in this research, mainly high temperatures, could become a reality in many lettuce-producing areas. Therefore, the results can help indicate and develop lettuce varieties with greater heat tolerance.

A decade of submersible observations revealed temporal trends in elasmobranchs in a remote island of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean.

No-take marine protected areas (MPAs) can mitigate the effects of overfishing, climate change and habitat degradation, which are leading causes of an unprecedented global biodiversity crisis. However, assessing the effectiveness of MPAs, especially in remote oceanic islands, can be logistically challenging and often restricted to relatively shallow and accessible environments. Here, we used a long-term dataset (2010-2019) collected by the DeepSee submersible of the Undersea Hunter Group that operates in Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica, to (1) determine the frequency of occurrence of elasmobranch species at two depth intervals (50-100 m; 300-400 m), and (2) investigate temporal trends in the occurrence of common elasmobranch species between 2010 and 2019, as well as potential drivers of the observed changes. Overall, we observed 17 elasmobranch species, 15 of which were recorded on shallow dives (50-100 m) and 11 on deep dives (300-400 m). We found a decreasing trend in the probability of occurrence of Carcharhinus falciformis over time (2010-2019), while other species (e.g. Taeniurops meyeni, Sphyrna lewini, Carcharhinus galapagensis, Triaenodon obesus, and Galeocerdo cuvier) showed an increasing trend. Our study suggests that some species like S. lewini may be shifting their distributions towards deeper waters in response to ocean warming but may also be sensitive to low oxygen levels at greater depths. These findings highlight the need for regional 3D environmental information and long-term deepwater surveys to understand the extent of shark and ray population declines in the ETP and other regions, as most fishery-independent surveys from data-poor countries have been limited to relatively shallow waters.

Air pollution and rhinitis.

Rhinitis arises from either allergic or non-allergic inflammation of the nasal mucosa, characterized by the infiltration of inflammatory cells into the tissue and nasal secretions, along with structural alterations in the nasal mucosa. The pathways through which air pollution affects rhinitis may diverge from those affecting asthma. This article aims to review the effects of diverse air pollutants on the nose, the correlation of climate change and pollution, and how they aggravate the symptoms of patients with rhinitis.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick, 1909) Voltinism: Implications for Fruit Production in Southern Brazil.

The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-TL)(TH-T)1/2) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.

Temperature rise and its influence on the toxic effects caused by cyanotoxins in a neotropical catfish.

Potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms (cyanoHABs) have become a problem in public water supply reservoirs. Temperature rise caused by climate change can increase the frequency and intensity of blooms, which may influence the cyanotoxins concentration in the environment. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the temperature on the responses of a Neotropical catfish exposed to a neurotoxin-rich cyanobacterial crude extract (Raphidiopsis raciborskii T3). Juveniles of Rhamdia quelen were exposed to four treatments, based on study data: control at 25 °C (C25), control at 30 °C (C30), crude extract equivalent to 105 cells.mL-l of R. raciborskii at 25 °C (CE25) and 30 °C (CE30). After 96 h of exposure, the fish were anesthetized and blood was taken. After euthanasia, the gill, posterior kidney, brain, muscle, liver and gonad were sampled for hematological, biochemical, genotoxic and histopathological biomarker analysis. Liver was sampled for proteomic analysis for identification of proteins related to energy production. Water samples were collected at the beginning and the end of the experiment for neurotoxins quantification. Different parameters in both males and females were altered at CE25, evidencing the effects of neurotoxins in freshwater fish. At CE30, a water warming scenario, more effects were observed in females than at 25 °C, such as activation of saxitoxin metabolism pathway and genotoxicity. More damage to macromolecules was observed in females at the higher temperature, demonstrating that the increase in temperature can aggravate the toxicity of neurotoxins produced by R. raciborskii T3.

Modeling tropical tuna shifts: An inflated power logit regression approach.

We introduce a new class of zero-or-one inflated power logit (IPL) regression models, which serve as a versatile tool for analyzing bounded continuous data with observations at a boundary. These models are applied to explore the effects of climate changes on the distribution of tropical tuna within the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that our modeling approach is adequate and capable of handling the outliers in the data. It exhibited superior performance compared to rival models in both diagnostic analysis and regarding the inference robustness. We offer a user-friendly method for fitting IPL regression models in practical applications.

Climate change impacts on temperate fruit and nut production: a systematic review.

Temperate fruit and nut crops require distinctive cold and warm seasons to meet their physiological requirements and progress through their phenological stages. Consequently, they have been traditionally cultivated in warm temperate climate regions characterized by dry-summer and wet-winter seasons. However, fruit and nut production in these areas faces new challenging conditions due to increasingly severe and erratic weather patterns caused by climate change. This review represents an effort towards identifying the current state of knowledge, key challenges, and gaps that emerge from studies of climate change effects on fruit and nut crops produced in warm temperate climates. Following the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we analyzed 403 articles published between 2000 and 2023 that met the defined eligibility criteria. A 44-fold increase in the number of publications during the last two decades reflects a growing interest in research related to both a better understanding of the effects of climate anomalies on temperate fruit and nut production and the need to find strategies that allow this industry to adapt to current and future weather conditions while reducing its environmental impacts. In an extended analysis beyond the scope of the systematic review methodology, we classified the literature into six main areas of research, including responses to environmental conditions, water management, sustainable agriculture, breeding and genetics, prediction models, and production systems. Given the rapid expansion of climate change-related literature, our analysis provides valuable information for researchers, as it can help them identify aspects that are well understood, topics that remain unexplored, and urgent questions that need to be addressed in the future.

Hurricanes are limiting the mangrove canopy heights in the Gulf of Mexico.

Mangrove canopy height (MCH) has been described as a leading characteristic of mangrove forests, protecting coastal economic interests from hurricanes. Meanwhile, winter temperature has been considered the main factor controlling the MCH along subtropical coastlines. However, the MCH in Cedar Key, Florida (∼12 m), is significantly higher than in Port Fourchon, Louisiana (∼2.5 m), even though these two subtropical locations have similar winter temperatures. Port Fourchon has been more frequently impacted by hurricanes than Cedar Key, suggesting that hurricanes may have limited the MCH in Port Fourchon rather than simply winter temperatures. This hypothesis was evaluated using novel high-resolution remote sensing techniques that tracked the MCH changes between 2002 and 2023. Results indicate that hurricanes were the limiting factor keeping the mean MCH at Port Fourchon to <1 m (2002-2013), as the absence of hurricane impacts between 2013 and 2018 allowed the mean MCH to increase by 60 cm despite the winter freezes in Jan/2014 and Jan/2018. Hurricanes Zeta (2020) and Ida (2021) caused a decrease in the mean MCH by 20 cm, breaking branches, defoliating the canopy, and toppling trees. The mean MCH (∼1.6 m) attained before Zeta and Ida has not yet been recovered as of August 2023 (∼1.4 m), suggesting a longer-lasting impact (>4 years) of hurricanes on mangroves than winter freezes (<1 year). The high frequency of hurricanes affecting mangroves at Port Fourchon has acted as a periodic "pruning," particularly of the tallest Avicennia trees, inhibiting their natural growth rates even during quiet periods following hurricane events (e.g., 12 cm/yr, 2013-2018). By contrast, the absence of hurricanes in Cedar Key (2000-2020) has allowed the MCH to reach 12 m (44-50 cm/yr), implying that, besides the winter temperature, the frequency and intensity of hurricanes are important factors limiting the MCH on their latitudinal range limits in the Gulf of Mexico.

Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate.

Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.

Perspectivas sobre el momento del colapso ecosistémico en un clima cambiante Resumen El cambio climático es uno de los principales causantes del cambio ecosistémico, cuyo impacto a escala global se intensificará en las próximas dos décadas. No sólo es un reto estimar el momento de los cambios sin precedentes, sino también es de gran importancia para el desarrollo de las directrices de conservación de los ecosistemas. El momento de aparición (MdA), el punto en el que el cambio climático puede diferenciarse de un clima previo; es un concepto de aplicación extensa en los estudios de climatología y proporciona una estrategia sólida pero poco explorada para evaluar el riesgo del colapso ecosistémico, como está descrito por el criterio C de la Lista Roja de Ecosistemas (LRE) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza. Identificamos las tres consideraciones teóricas del MdA para la evaluación de la LRE (grado de estabilidad, análisis multifactoriales en vez de unidimensionales y distintivos del colapso ecosistémico) y cuatro fuentes de incertidumbre cuando se aplica la metodología MdA (difusión intermodelo, periodo de referencia histórica, consenso entre las variables y consideración de escenarios distintos), la cual busca evitar el mal uso y los errores mientras se promueve una aplicación adecuada del marco de los científicos y lo practicantes. La incorporación del MdA a las evaluaciones de la LRE añade información importante para el establecimiento de prioridades de conservación que permiten la predicción de cambios dentro y más allá del marco temporal propuesto por la LRE.

Long-term studies on West Antarctic Peninsula phytoplankton blooms suggest range shifts between temperate and polar species.

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) experiences one of the highest rates of sea surface warming globally, leading to potential changes in biological communities. Long-term phytoplankton monitoring in Potter Cove (PC, King George Island, South Shetlands) from the 1990s to 2009 revealed consistently low biomass values, and sporadic blooms dominated by cold-water microplankton diatoms. However, a significant change occurred between 2010 and 2020, marked by a notable increase in intense phytoplankton blooms in the region. During this period, the presence of a nanoplankton diatom, Shionodiscus gaarderae, was documented for the first time. In some instances, this species even dominated the blooms. S. gaarderae is recognized for producing blooms in temperate waters in both hemispheres. However, its blooming in the northern Southern Ocean may suggest either a recent introduction or a range shift associated with rising temperatures in the WAP, a phenomenon previously observed in experimental studies. The presence of S. gaarderae could be viewed as a warning sign of significant changes already underway in the northern WAP plankton communities. This includes the potential replacement of microplankton diatoms by smaller nanoplankton species. This study, based on observations along the past decade, and compared to the previous 20 years, could have far-reaching implications for the structure of the Antarctic food web.