Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world.

Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial times1. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.5 °C (refs. 2-7). Here we use a global energy systems model8 to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. By 2050, we find that nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 °C carbon budget. This is a large increase in the unextractable estimates for a 2 °C carbon budget9, particularly for oil, for which an additional 25 per cent of reserves must remain unextracted. Furthermore, we estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3 per cent each year until 2050. This implies that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade, rendering many operational and planned fossil fuel projects unviable. We probably present an underestimate of the production changes required, because a greater than 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires more carbon to stay in the ground and because of uncertainties around the timely deployment of negative emission technologies at scale.

Are fuel poverty reduction schemes associated with decreased excess winter mortality in elders? A case study from London, U.K.

The London Borough of Newham, London piloted the Warm Zone, a government-led fuel poverty reduction scheme. Fuel poverty is often cited as a factor in excess winter mortality (EWM) in the U.K. This study reported in this paper assessed whether EWM decreased for people aged > or =65 years in Newham as compared to all London, employing data from before and throughout the duration of the Warm Zone project. The paper also discusses the difficulties surrounding the measurement and interpretation of health impact relating to fuel poverty. We calculated and compared the yearly EWM indices for people aged > or =65 years for all of London, and for Newham over 12 years (1993-2005). The yearly EWM ratio for Newham in relation to all London was then calculated and compared. No definitive evidence to support the effect of the War Zone on EMW were noted. Relationships between EWM and fewer poverty reduction schemes are difficult to interpret, as many factors are entangled. These include cold strain and biological, genetic, gender, physiological, thermoregulation, environmental, meteorological, socio-economic, healthcare provision/expenditure, lifestyle and co-morbidity aspects, besides the challenges of sample sizes and whether other fuel poverty reduction schemes were simultaneously in operation. Those in privately owned housing might be ;masked' (underestimated) in their vulnerability to fuel poverty. Redefining the specific criteria for eligibility for fuel poverty grants and tackling heat inefficiency in privately owned homes not eligible for home heating improvement despite fulfilling other criteria for vulnerability requires attention. The implications are discussed.

"The walls were so damp and cold" fuel poverty and ill health in Northern Ireland: results from a housing intervention.

This article reports the findings from an evaluation of a fuel poverty programme in the Armagh and Dungannon Health Action Zone in Northern Ireland. Focusing on a rural community, it adds to the debate surrounding the hidden nature of rural fuel poverty. As part of the programme, energy efficiency measures, including some central heating systems, were installed in 54 homes. Surveys were conducted both pre and post intervention and analysed to assess any changes. The programme demonstrated that energy efficiency intervention can lead to improvements in health and well being, increased comfort levels in the home and a reduction in the use of health services, therefore having potential cost savings for the NHS. Some households, however, remain in fuel poverty after having full central heating installed, reflecting the significant contribution of low income on the production of fuel poverty. The article concludes by suggesting that interventions in this area require commitment from multiple sectors of society, including health professionals and local communities.

Ready for supply inflation?

Hurricane Katrina was expected to provoke major hikes in the prices that hospitals pay for supplies and commodities. But other forces--global demand for raw materials and for access to shipping, in particular--are having an even bigger impact on everything from heating oil to synthetic gloves. Hospitals are using old strategies and creating new ones to try to manage risk and blunt the effect of this inflationary spiral.

Keeping warm and staying well: findings from the qualitative arm of the Warm Homes Project.

This paper presents findings from the qualitative arm of the Warm Homes Project, a programme of research concerned with the nature of fuel poverty, its alleviation and its relationship to family health. Much of the research into fuel poverty, which results from various combinations of low income and fuel inefficiency, has drawn upon quantitative paradigms. Experiences of, and coping with, fuel poverty have not been well explored. Data for the present study were obtained through qualitative interviews with household members about the above issues. The findings suggest that the expectations of those in fuel poverty about staying warm, and their beliefs about the relationship between warmth and health, vary considerably. Fuel poverty often had wider ramifications, impacting on quality of life in complex ways. The respondents took steps to alleviate cold, but their strategies varied. Coping was affected by informational limitations as well as cost constraints. Measures designed to alleviate fuel poverty should take into account its wider social meaning within the lives of household members.