Health worker protests and the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis.

Objective: To assess the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on protests by health workers. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis of data from 159 countries for 2 years before and after the World Health Organization classified COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020, thus between 2018 and 2022. We produced models examining two main outcomes: (i) the total weekly number of health worker protests globally; and (ii) the number of countries with one or more health worker protests in a given week. Findings: In total, there were 18 322 health worker protests in 133 countries between 2018 and 2022. The number of weekly health worker protests globally increased by 47% (30.1/63.5), an increase of 30.1 protests per week (95% confidence interval, CI: 11.7-48.6) at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the number of countries experiencing such protests in a given week increased by 24% (5.7/24.1) following the declaration of the pandemic (an increase of 5.7 countries; 95% CI: 3.5-7.8). Conclusion: The pandemic increased the overall level of health worker protests globally as well as the number of countries experiencing such protests. These protests highlight discontent in the health workforce. Given the ongoing global health workforce crisis, understanding and addressing the drivers of health worker discontent is important for global health policy and security.

Changes in the Use of Hydrochlorothiazide and Other Antihypertensive Drugs in Switzerland in Association With the Swissmedic Safety Alert Regarding Non-melanoma Skin Cancer: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis Using Swiss Claims Data.

PURPOSE: Long-term use of hydrochlorothiazide increases the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer. We aimed to evaluate potential changes in the use of hydrochlorothiazide in Switzerland after a direct healthcare professional communication (DHPC) in November 2018 by Swissmedic. METHODS: We performed interrupted time-series analyses using a large Swiss healthcare claims database (2015-2021). Within monthly intervals, we quantified the total number of claims and the total dispensed 'defined daily doses' (DDD) for preparations containing (1) hydrochlorothiazide, (2) angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin-II-receptor blockers (ARB), (3) calcium-channel blockers (CCB) and (4) thiazide-like diuretics per 10 000 persons. Using segmented linear regression, we quantified the pre-DHPC trend, the immediate change and the post-DHPC change in trend for total claims and DDD for the four drug classes weighted for the demographic distribution of the Swiss population. RESULTS: ACE inhibitors and ARB were the most frequently claimed antihypertensive drugs with 300-400 claims per 10 000 persons, which increased by 5.4% during the study period. The average number of hydrochlorothiazide claims (157/10 000 persons in 2015) declined by 35% between 2015 and 2021. The decrease started prior to the DHPC, but the DHPC was associated with an immediate 6.1% decline and an accelerated decline in claims over time after the DHPC (similar results for DDD). This coincided with a 23% increase in claims of CCB (dihydropyridine type) over 7 years, whereas use of other antihypertensives increased less. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the DHPC by Swissmedic in 2018 accelerated a pre-existing decline in the use of hydrochlorothiazide in Switzerland.

Interrupted time series analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and compulsory social health insurance system on fertility rates: a study of live births in Kazakhstan, 2019-2023.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered global health crises, affecting population health directly through infections and fatalities, and indirectly by increasing the burden of chronic diseases due to disrupted healthcare access and altered lifestyle behaviors. Amidst these challenges, concerns regarding reproductive health and fertility rates have emerged, necessitating an understanding of their implications for policymaking and healthcare planning. Furthermore, Kazakhstan's healthcare landscape underwent significant changes with the reintroduction of compulsory social health insurance system in January 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and compulsory social health insurance system on fertility rates in Kazakhstan by examining live birth data from 2019 to 2024. Methods: Using Interrupted Time Series analysis, we evaluated the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown announcement and compulsory social health insurance system implementation on monthly birth rates, adjusted for the number of women of reproductive age from January 2019 to December 2023. Results: In the final model, the coefficients were as follows: the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown was estimated at 469 (SE = 2600, p = 0.8576); the centering variable was estimated at 318 (SE = 222, p = 0.1573), suggesting no significant trend in monthly birth rates over time; the insurance effect was estimated at 7,050 (SE = 2,530, p < 0.01); and the effect of the number of women of reproductive age was estimated at -0.204 (SE = 0.0831, p = 0.01). Discussion: The implementation of the compulsory social health insurance system, rather than the announcement of the COVID-19 lockdown, has had a significant positive impact on live birth rates in Kazakhstan. However, despite governmental efforts, live birth rates are declining, potentially due to unaddressed health needs of fertile women and economic challenges. Urgent policy-level actions are needed to address gaps in healthcare services and promote reproductive health.

Redirection of low-acuity emergency department patients to nearby medical clinics using an electronic medical support system: effects on emergency department performance indicators.

BACKGROUND: Overcrowded emergency departments (EDs) are associated with higher morbidity and mortality and suboptimal quality-of-care. Most ED flow management strategies focus on early identification and redirection of low-acuity patients to primary care settings. To assess the impact of redirecting low-acuity ED patients to medical clinics using an electronic clinical decision support system on four ED performance indicators. METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study in the ED of a Canadian tertiary trauma center where a redirection process for low-acuity patients was implemented. The process was based on a clinical decision support system relying on an algorithm based on chief complaint, performed by nurses at triage and not involving physician assessment. All patients visiting the ED from 2013 to 2017 were included. We compared ED performance indicators before and after implementation of the redirection process (June 2015): length-of-triage, time-to-initial-physician-assessment, length-of-stay and rate of patients leaving without being seen. We performed an interrupted time series analysis adjusted for age, gender, time of visit, triage category and overcrowding. RESULTS: Of 242,972 ED attendees over the study period, 9546 (8% of 121,116 post-intervention patients) were redirected to a nearby primary medical clinic. After the redirection process was implemented, length-of-triage increased by 1 min [1;2], time-to-initial assessment decreased by 13 min [-16;-11], length-of-stay for non-redirected patients increased by 29 min [13;44] (p < 0.001), minus 20 min [-42;1] (p = 0.066) for patients assigned to triage 5 category. The rate of patients leaving without being seen decreased by 2% [-3;-2] (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Implementing a redirection process for low-acuity ED patients based on a clinical support system was associated with improvements in two of four ED performance indicators.

Trends in COPD severe exacerbations, and all-cause and respiratory mortality, before and after implementation of newer long-acting bronchodilators in a large population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the trends in morbidity and mortality at the population level that followed the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators for COPD. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the availability of new bronchodilators was associated with changes in the temporal trends in severe COPD exacerbations and mortality between 2007 and 2018 in the older population with COPD; and whether this association was homogeneous across sex and socioeconomic status classes. METHODS: We used an interrupted time-series and three segments multivariate autoregressive models to evaluate the adjusted changes in slopes (i.e., trend effect) in monthly severe exacerbation and mortality rates after 03/2013 and 02/2015 compared to the tiotropium period (04/2007 to 02/2013). Cohorts of individuals > 65 years with COPD were created from the nationally representative database of the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System in the province of Quebec, Canada. Whether these trends were similar for men and women and across different socioeconomic status classes was also assessed. RESULTS: There were 130,750 hospitalizations for severe exacerbation and 104,460 deaths, including 24,457 (23.4%) respiratory-related deaths, over the study period (928,934 person-years). Significant changes in trends were seen after 03/2013 for all-cause mortality (-1.14%/month;95%CI -1.90% to -0.38%), which further decreased after 02/2015 (-1.78%/month;95%CI -2.70% to -0.38%). Decreases in respiratory-related mortality (-2.45%/month;95%CI -4.38% to -0.47%) and severe exacerbation (-1,90%/month;95%CI -3.04% to -0.75%) rates were only observed after 02/2015. These observations tended to be more pronounced in women than in men and in higher socioeconomic status groups (less deprived) than in lower socioeconomic status groups (more deprived). CONCLUSIONS: The arrival of newer bronchodilators was chronologically associated with reduced trends in severe exacerbation, all-cause and respiratory-related mortality rates among people with COPD > 65 years. Our findings document population benefits on key patient-relevant outcomes in the years following the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators and their combinations, which were likely multifactorial. Public health efforts should focus on closing the gap between lower and higher socioeconomic status groups.

Impact of Regulatory Interventions on Ulipristal Acetate 5 mg (Esmya) Use in Spain: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

PURPOSE: Since late 2017, the use of ulipristal acetate 5 mg (UPA; Proprietary name: Esmya) has been under review in the European Union, due to an emerging hepatic risk. In February 2018 and in July 2018, the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices and the marketing authorization holder put two risk minimization measures (RMM) in place, in order to inform about new safety information and to mitigate this risk. This study aims to assess RMM effectiveness in Spain, by performing an interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses, between 2014 and 2019. METHOD: Two quasi-experimental ITS analyses to examine the use of UPA before and after the RMM release were performed: (a) an ecological study using aggregated data from a drug consumption database; and (b) a study using primary healthcare data gathered from electronic clinical records. RESULTS: Regulatory interventions were associated with an immediate and significant decrease level of DID (the number of DDD dispensed per 100 000 inhabitants and day) and incidence. The DID was 70% less than expected 12 months after the interventions. This value was 59% for the incidence. However, a change in the slope was not observed and the use started rising again in the last segment of the study period. CONCLUSION: Despite RMM had an immediate strong impact on UPA use, the last segment upward trend in the long-term might have been affected by the lack of comparable therapeutic alternatives. Further studies should be performed to confirm the increase trend observed and analyze subsequent measures and additional data.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on malnutrition in socially vulnerable children in Brazil. / Efeito da pandemia da COVID-19 sobre a má nutrição em crianças em vulnerabilidade social, no Brasil.

This article aims to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on malnutrition among children under two years of age enrolled in the Bolsa Família Program (BFP). Ecological study of interrupted time series (ITS), with low weight for age, stunting, and overweight as time-dependent variables of malnutrition, extracted monthly (Jan/2008 to June/2021) from the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System. The COVID-19 pandemic was the exposure, dichotomized into pre-pandemic and pandemic. In RStudio, the trend was obtained by Prais-Winsten regression, and the effect of the pandemic on the time-dependent variables was determined by SARIMA modeling, estimating the regression coefficients (RC) adjusted for trend and seasonality (α = 5%). The pandemic was associated with an increase in: i) low weight for age in the South (RC = 0.94; p < 0.001) and Southeast (RC = 1.97; p < 0.001); ii) height deficit in the Midwest (RC = 2.4; p = 0.01), South (RC = 2.15; p < 0.001) and Southeast (RC = 2.96; p < 0.001); and iii) and overweight in the North (RC = 1.51; p = 0.04), Midwest (RC = 2.29; p = 0.01), South (RC = 2.83; p < 0.001), and Southeast (RC = 0.72; p = 0.04). The pandemic increased underweight in the South and Southeast, and the double burden of malnutrition in the Midwest, South, and Southeast. In the Northeast and North, higher rates of malnutrition still persist.

O objetivo do artigo é avaliar o efeito da pandemia de COVID-19 sobre a má nutrição em crianças menores de dois anos inscritas no Programa Bolsa Família. Estudo ecológico de série temporal interrompida, tendo o baixo peso por idade, o déficit de estatura e o excesso de peso como variáveis tempo-dependentes de má nutrição, extraídas mensalmente (jan/2008 a junho/2021) do Sistema de Vigilância Alimentar e Nutricional. A pandemia de COVID-19 foi a exposição, dicotomizada em pré e pandemia. No programa RStudio, a tendência foi obtida pela regressão de Prais-Winsten, e o efeito da pandemia sobre as variáveis tempo-dependentes, pela modelagem SARIMA, calculando-se coeficientes de regressão (CR) ajustados para tendência prévia e sazonalidade (α = 5%). A pandemia se associou ao aumento do: i) baixo peso por idade no Sul (CR = 0,94; p < 0,001) e Sudeste (CR = 1,97; p < 0,001); ii) déficit de estatura no Centro-Oeste (CR = 2,4; p = 0,01), Sul (CR = 2,15; p < 0,001) e Sudeste (CR = 2,96; p < 0,001); e iii) excesso de peso no Norte (CR = 1,51; p=0,04), Centro-Oeste (CR = 2,29; p = 0,01), Sul (CR = 2,83; p < 0,001) e Sudeste (CR = 0,72; p = 0,04). A pandemia aumentou o baixo peso no Sul e Sudeste e a dupla carga de má nutrição no Centro-Oeste, no Sul e no Sudeste. No Nordeste e no Norte persistem taxas mais altas de má nutrição.

Impact of structured multicentre enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) protocol implementation on length of stay after colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Increased length of stay after surgery is associated with increased healthcare utilization and adverse patient outcomes. While enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) protocols have been shown to reduce length of stay after colorectal surgery in trial settings, their effectiveness in real-world settings is more uncertain. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of ERAS protocol implementation on length of stay after colorectal surgery, using real-world data. METHODS: In 2012, ERAS protocols were introduced at 15 Ontario hospitals as part of the iERAS study. A cohort of patients undergoing colorectal surgery treated at these hospitals between 2008 and 2019 was created using health administrative data. Mean length of stay was computed for the intervals before and after ERAS implementation. Interrupted time series analyses were performed for predefined subgroups, namely all colorectal surgery, colorectal surgery without complications, right-sided colorectal surgery, and left-sided colorectal surgery. Sensitivity analyses were then conducted using adjusted length of stay, accounting for length of stay predictors, including: patient age, sex, marginalization, co-morbidities, and diagnosis; surgeon volume of cases, years in practice, and colorectal surgery expertise; hospital volume; and other contextual factors, including procedure type and timing, surgical approach, and in-hospital complications. RESULTS: A total of 32 612 patients underwent colorectal surgery during the study interval. ERAS implementation led to a decrease in length of stay of 1.05 days (13.7%). Larger decreases in length of stay were seen with more complex surgeries, with a level change of 1.17 days (15.6%) noted for the subgroup of patients undergoing left-sided colorectal surgery. The observed decreases in length of stay were durable for the length of the study interval in all analyses. When adjusting for predictors of length of stay, the effect of ERAS implementation on length of stay was larger (reduction of 1.46 days). CONCLUSION: Introducing formal ERAS protocols reduces length of stay after colorectal surgery significantly, independent of temporal trends toward decreasing length of stay. These effects are durable, demonstrating that ERAS protocol implementation is an effective hospital-level intervention to reduce length of stay after colorectal surgery.

Short- and long-term impacts of the National Essential Medicines Policy on drug availability, price, and usage in a deprived rural county in southwestern China: an interrupted time series analysis across 8 years.

Background: China's National Essential Medicines Policy (NEMP) has been implemented for over 15 years; yet empirical evidence on its long-term impacts is lacking, particularly in remote and rural regions. This study aims to assess the short-and long-term effects of NEMP on the drug availability, price, and usage in a deprived rural county in southwestern China. Methods: A quasi-experimental design was employed, featuring a single-group pre-and-post comparison. We gathered 74,436 procurement records spanning from 2009 to 2016 from the drug warehouses of local medical institutions. Pharmaceutical data were analyzed quarterly, considering various policy and therapeutic attributes. Fisher's Drug Price Index (DPI-F) was calibrated for the retail and wholesale prices of a consistent collection of 405 medications. We conducted interrupted time-series analysis to examine the immediate and enduring impacts of NEMP's initial (commencing in January 2011) and second (starting from December 2015) stages. Results: After initiation of NEMP, the number of available essential medicines surged by 115 but subsequently faced a steady quarterly decline (-9.1) in township healthcare centers (THCs, primary care). Conversely, county hospitals (secondary care) initially saw a reduction of 40 in drug availability but later exhibited a steady increase (+4.2 per quarter) up to the second-stage NEMP. Regarding price, THCs encountered abrupt (-26.1%/-15.9% in retail/wholesale price) and sustained (-0.2%/-0.3% per quarter) price drops after NEMP. The immediate price change after NEMP in county hospitals were milder but significant in non-essential medicines, and long-term declines were also observed in all drugs. As for total sales, a significant long-term disparity emerged between THCs (+0.9% per quarter) and county hospitals (+3.3% per quarter). Following the second-stage NEMP, retail prices in county hospitals further decreased, although wholesale prices did not; however, following price upward trends were observed in both THCs and county hospitals. Lastly, the influences of NEMP varied across different therapeutical categories of medicines. Conclusion: NEMP has successfully regulated drug prices in primary and secondary healthcare facilities in remote and rural areas, both short-term and long-term. However, a remarkable disparity in medicine availability and utilization was observed between different levels of facilities over time. Continuous monitoring is essential, with increased attention needed on the uneven impacts of the policy on diverse drugs, facilities, regions, and demographics.

The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on HIV prevention and treatment services for key populations in South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Key populations (KP), including men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and transgender women (TGW), experience a disproportionate burden of HIV, even in generalized epidemics like South Africa. Given this disproportionate burden and unique barriers to accessing health services, sustained provision of care is particularly relevant. It is unclear how the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated restrictions may have impacted this delivery. In this study, we aimed to describe patterns of engagement in HIV prevention and treatment services among KP in South Africa and assess the impact of different COVID-19 restriction levels on service delivery. METHODS: We leveraged programmatic data collected by the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-supported KP partners in South Africa. We divided data into three discrete time periods based on national COVID-19 restriction periods: (i) Pre-restriction period, (ii) High-level restriction period, and (iii) After-high level restriction period. Primary outcomes included monthly total HIV tests, new HIV cases identified, new initiations of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and new enrollments in antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted interrupted time series segmented regression analyses to estimate the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on HIV prevention and treatment service utilization. RESULTS: Between January 2018 and June 2022, there were a total of 231,086 HIV tests, 27,051 HIV positive cases, 27,656 pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) initiations, and 15,949 antiretroviral therapy initiations among MSM, FSW and TGW in PEPFAR-supported KP programs in South Africa. We recorded 90,457 total HIV tests during the 'pre-restriction' period, with 13,593 confirmed new HIV diagnoses; 26,134 total HIV tests with 2,771 new diagnoses during the 'high-level restriction' period; and 114,495 HIV tests with 10,687 new diagnoses during the after high-level restriction period. Our Poisson regression model estimates indicate an immediate and significant decrease in service engagement at the onset of COVID-19 restrictions, including declines in HIV testing, treatment, and PrEP use, which persisted. As programs adjusted to the new restrictions, there was a gradual rebound in service engagement, particularly among MSM and FSW. Towards the end of the high-level restriction period, with some aspects of daily life returning to normal but others still restricted, there was more variability. Some indicators continued to improve, while others stagnated or decreased. CONCLUSION: Service provision rebounded from the initial shock created by pandemic-related restrictions, and HIV services were largely maintained for KP in South Africa. These results suggest that HIV service delivery among programs designed for KP was able to be flexible and resilient to the evolving restrictions. The results of this study can inform plans for future pandemics and large-scale disruptions to the delivery of HIV services.

A longitudinal study of a mHealth app and regional policies on the uptake of postpartum depression referral after positive screening in Shenzhen.

BACKGROUND: Postpartum depression (PPD) has received widespread attention. Shenzhen has been running a large-scale program for PPD since 2013. The program requires mothers to self-assess when applying information technology to PPD screening beginning in 2021. The purpose of this study was to conduct a longitudinal analysis of the impact of mHealth apps on the health-seeking behaviors of PPD patients. METHODS: Longitudinal data from districts in the Shenzhen Maternal and Child Health Management Information System (MCHMIS) for ten years was used in this study. Referral success rate (RSR, successful referrals to designated hospitals as a percentage of needed referrals) was used to assess health-seeking behavior. Trend χ2 tests were used to assess the overall trend of change after the implementation of mHealth in ten districts in Shenzhen. Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) was employed to assess the role of the mHealth app in changing patient health-seeking behaviors. RESULTS: For the results of the trend χ2 tests, the ten districts of Shenzhen showed an upward trend. For the ITSA results, different results were shown between districts. Nanshan district, Longhua district, and Longgang district all demonstrated an upward trend in the first-year application of the mHealth app. Nanshan district and Longgang district both exhibited an upward trend in terms of sustained effects. CONCLUSIONS: There is a difference in the performance of the mHealth app across the ten districts. The results show that the three districts with better health resource allocation, Nanshan, Longgang, and Longhua districts, demonstrated more significant mHealth app improvements. The mHealth app's functions, management systems, and health resource allocation may be potential factors in the results. This suggests that when leveraging mHealth applications, the first step is to focus on macro-level area resource allocation measures. Secondly, there should be effective process design and strict regulatory measures. Finally, there should also be appropriate means of publicity.

Multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and antimicrobial stewardship on antimicrobial resistance in nosocomial infections: an interrupted time series analysis.

Objectives: The emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic may disrupt hospital management activities of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study aimed to determine the changing AMR trend over the period in China when stringent COVID-19 response measures were implemented. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted in a designated hospital for COVID-19 patients in Guangzhou, China from April 2018 to September 2021. The prevalence of 13 antimicrobial-resistant bacteria was compared before and after the COVID-19 responses through Chi-square tests. Interrupted time series (ITS) models on the weekly prevalence of AMR were established to determine the changing trend. Controlled ITS models were performed to compare the differences between subgroups. Results: A total of 10,134 isolates over 1,265 days were collected. And antimicrobial-resistant strains presented in 38.6% of the testing isolates. The weekly AMR prevalence decreased by 0.29 percentage point (95% CI [0.05-0.80]) after antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) policy, despite an increase in the prevalence of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (from 0/43 to 15/43, p < 0.001), carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli (from 20/1254 to 41/1184, p = 0.005), and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (from 93/889 to 114/828, p = 0.042). And the changing trend did not vary by gender (male vs. female), age (<65 vs. ≥65 years), service setting (outpatient vs. inpatient), care unit (ICU vs. non-ICU), the primary site of infection (Lung vs. others), and Gram type of bacteria (positive vs. negative). Conclusion: The response to COVID-19 did not lead to an increase in overall AMR; however, it appears that management strategy on the prudent use of antimicrobials likely contributed to a sizable long-term drop. The frequency of several multidrug-resistant bacteria continues to increase after the COVID-19 epidemic. It is crucial to continue to monitor AMR when COVID-19 cases have surged in China after the relaxation of restriction measures.

Buprenorphine Prescribing Characteristics Following Relaxation of X-Waiver Training Requirements.

Importance: Local-level data are needed to understand whether the relaxation of X-waiver training requirements for prescribing buprenorphine in April 2021 translated to increased buprenorphine treatment. Objective: To assess whether relaxation of X-waiver training requirements was associated with changes in the number of clinicians waivered to and who prescribe buprenorphine for opioid use disorder and the number of patients receiving treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: This serial cross-sectional study uses an interrupted time series analysis of 2020-2022 data from the HEALing Communities Study (HCS), a cluster-randomized, wait-list-controlled trial. Urban and rural communities in 4 states (Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio) with a high burden of opioid overdoses that had not yet received the HCS intervention were included. Exposure: Relaxation of X-waiver training requirements (ie, allowing training-exempt X-waivers) on April 28, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The monthly number of X-waivered clinicians, X-waivered buprenorphine prescribers, and patients receiving buprenorphine were each summed across communities within a state. Segmented linear regression models to estimate pre- and post-policy change by state were used. Results: The number of individuals in 33 participating HCS communities included 347 863 in Massachusetts, 815 794 in Kentucky, 971 490 in New York, and 1 623 958 in Ohio. The distribution of age (18-35 years: range, 29.4%-32.4%; 35-54 years: range, 29.9%-32.5%; ≥55 years: range, 35.7%-39.3%) and sex (female: range, 51.1%-52.6%) was similar across communities. There was a temporal increase in the number of X-waivered clinicians in the pre-policy change period in all states, which further increased in the post-policy change period in each state except Ohio, ranging from 5.2% (95% CI, 3.1%-7.3%) in Massachusetts communities to 8.4% (95% CI, 6.5%-10.3%) in Kentucky communities. Only communities in Kentucky showed an increase in the number of X-waivered clinicians prescribing buprenorphine associated with the policy change (relative increase, 3.2%; 95% CI, 1.5%-4.9%), while communities in other states showed no change or a decrease. Similarly, only communities in Massachusetts experienced an increase in patients receiving buprenorphine associated with the policy change (relative increase, 1.7%; 95% CI, 0.8%-2.6%), while communities in other states showed no change. Conclusions and Relevance: In this serial cross-sectional study, relaxation of X-waiver training requirements was associated with an increase in the number of X-waivered clinicians but was not consistently associated with an increase in the number of buprenorphine prescribers or patients receiving buprenorphine. These findings suggest that training requirements may not be the primary barrier to expanding buprenorphine treatment.

Federal opioid agonist therapy policy: interrupted time series analysis of the impact of the methadone exemption removal across eight provinces in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Federal deregulation of opioid agonist therapies are an attractive policy option to improve access to opioid use disorder care and achieve widespread beneficial impacts on growing opioid-related harms. There have been few evaluations of such policy interventions and understanding effects can help policy planning across jurisdictions. METHODS: Using health administrative data from eight of ten Canadian provinces, this study evaluated the impacts of Health Canada's decision in May 2018 to rescind the requirement for Canadian health professionals to obtain an exemption from the Canadian Drugs and Substance Act to prescribe methadone for opioid use disorder. Over the study period of June 2017 to May 2019, we used descriptive statistics to capture overall trends in the number of agonist therapy prescribers across provinces and we used interrupted time series analysis to determine the effect of this decision on the trajectories of the agonist therapy prescribing workforces. RESULTS: There were important baseline differences in the numbers of agonist therapy prescribers. The province with the highest concentration of prescribers had 7.5 more prescribers per 100,000 residents compared to the province with the lowest. All provinces showed encouraging growth in the number of prescribers through the study period, though the fastest growing province grew 4.5 times more than the slowest. Interrupted time series analyses demonstrated a range of effects of the federal policy intervention on the provinces, from clearly positive changes to possibly negative effects. CONCLUSIONS: Federal drug regulation policy change interacted in complex ways with provincial health professional regulation and healthcare delivery, kaleidoscoping the effects of federal policy intervention. For Canada and other health systems such as the US, federal policy must account for significant subnational variation in OUD epidemiology and drug regulation to maximize intended beneficial effects and mitigate the risks of negative effects.

A Bayesian Interrupted Time Series framework for evaluating policy change on mental well-being: An application to England's welfare reform.

Factors contributing to social inequalities are associated with negative mental health outcomes and disparities in mental well-being. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical controlled interrupted time series to evaluate the impact of policies on population well-being whilst accounting for spatial and temporal patterns. Using data from the UKs Household Longitudinal Study, we apply this framework to evaluate the impact of the UKs welfare reform implemented in the 2010s on the mental health of the participants, measured using the GHQ-12 index. Our findings indicate that the reform led to a 2.36% (95% CrI: 0.57%-4.37%) increase in the national GHQ-12 index in the exposed group, after adjustment for the control group. Moreover, the geographical areas that experienced the largest increase in the GHQ-12 index are from more disadvantage backgrounds than affluent backgrounds.

The effect of Montreal's supervised consumption sites on injection-related infections among people who inject drugs: An interrupted time series.

BACKGROUND: Between June and November 2017, four supervised consumption sites (SCS) began operating in Montreal, Quebec. Earlier studies on SCS focused on examining their effects on blood-borne viral infections and overdose mortality. Our objective was to examine the effect of Montreal's SCS on the incidence, health service use and outcomes of injection-related infections (IRI) in people who inject drugs. METHODS: We used Quebec's provincial administrative health data to identify people who inject drugs in Montreal and calculated the incidence of IRI in this population between December 2014 and December 2019. We conducted a retrospective, population-based interrupted time series to estimate the effect of Montreal's four SCS on the monthly incidence rates of IRI-related hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, physician visits, and mortality. We also examined the effects of SCS on average length of IRI-related hospitalizations and incidence of hospitalizations involving surgery. RESULTS: The average age of Montreal's people who inject drugs was 41.84 years, and 66.41% were male. After the implementation of SCS, there was a positive level change in the incidence of hospitalizations (0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.26, 1.68) for IRI. There was also a significant post-intervention decline in hospitalization trends (-0.05; 95% CI: -0.08, -0.02), with modest trend changes in ED visits (-0.02; 95% CI: -0.05, 0.02). However, post-intervention changes in level (0.72; 95% CI: -3.85, 5.29) and trend (0.06; 95% CI: -0.23, 0.34) for physician visits remained limited. SCS had no effect on the average length of hospitalizations, but there was a decreasing post-intervention trend in hospitalizations involving surgery (-0.03; 95% CI: -0.06, 0.00). CONCLUSION: Following the opening of the SCS, there was a moderate decline in the rate of hospitalizations to treat IRI, but the impact of the sites on the rate of physician visits remained limited. These findings suggest that SCS may mitigate the incidence of more serious and complicated IRI over time.

Impact of COVID-19 and Public Health Measures on Positive Suicide Screens Among Emergency Department Children.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the association between prolonged time in the COVID-19 pandemic and rates of positive routine suicide screens among youth accessing healthcare in the pediatric emergency department. METHODS: Participants were English- and Spanish-speaking youth aged 10-18 years presenting without an acute mental/behavioral health concern to the emergency department or urgent care of a large hospital system, serving a 7-state region, who completed routine screening for suicide risk. Visits between March 1, 2019 and December 31, 2021 were included. We conducted a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis and categorized visits into the prepandemic year, COVID-19 year 1 (Y1), and COVID-19 year 2 (Y2). The primary outcome measure was rate of positive suicide screen. RESULTS: A total of 33,504 children completed routine suicide screening; 2689 children had a positive screen. The overall rate of positive suicide screens increased throughout the pandemic compared with baseline (7.5% prepandemic, 8.4% Y1, 9.3% Y2; P < 0.01). Rates of positive suicide screens in Y1 increased 0.04% per week and surpassed prepandemic rates, then decreased 0.1% per week throughout Y2 ( P < 0.01), during a time when social distancing mitigation efforts decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative time in the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased positive suicide screens in children. School reopening and normalization of social routines preceded an observed negative trend in rates of positive suicide screens in Y2 of the pandemic. This study demonstrates fluctuating trends in suicide screen positivity, potentially influenced by social distancing and public health measures. Our study may support that maintaining social connectedness and access to school-based or community resources may be a protective factor for youth suicide risk during a pandemic or other natural occurrence.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric emergency department use: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022.

Background: The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic is debated. Understanding the consequences these measures may have on vulnerable populations including children and adolescents is important. Methods: This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study involving 12 hospitals of the North Italian Emilia-Romagna Region, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (SC) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase (MM) with milder restrictions. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was used to calculate PED Standardized Incidence Rate Ratios (SIRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest frequency and/or variation. Results: In the 60 months of the study there were 765,215 PED visits. Compared to the pre-pandemic rate, overall PED presentations dropped by 58 and 39% during SC and MM, respectively. "Symptoms, signs and Ill-defined conditions," "Injury and poisoning" and "Diseases of the Respiratory System" accounted for 74% of the reduction. A different pattern was instead seen for "Mental Disorders," which exhibited the smallest decrease during SC, and is the only category which rose already at the end of SC. ITS analysis confirmed the strong decrease during SC (level change, IRR 0.17, 95%CI 0.12-0.27) and a significant increase in MM (slope change, IRR 1.23, 95%CI 1.13-1.33), with the sharpest decline (-94%) and rise (+36%) observed in the "Diseases of the Respiratory System" category. Mental Disorders showed a significant increasing trend of 1% monthly over the whole study period exceeding pre-pandemic levels at the end of MM. Females and adolescents showed higher increasing rates both in SC and MM. Conclusion: NPIs appear to have influenced PED attendance in different ways according to diagnostic categories, mirroring different mechanisms of action. These effects are beneficial in some cases and harmful in others, and establishing a clear balance between pros and cons is a difficult task for public health decision makers. The role of NPIs on PED use appropriateness deserves investigation. The rise in pediatric mental disorders independent of the pandemic makes interventions addressing these issues urgent.

Evaluating the impact of the 2010 Swedish choice reform in primary health care on avoidable hospitalization and socioeconomic inequities: an interrupted time series analysis using register data.

BACKGROUND: The Swedish Primary Health Care (PHC) system has, like in other European countries, undergone a gradual transition towards marketization and privatization, most distinctly through a 2010 choice reform. The reform led to an overall but regionally heterogenous expansion of private PHC providers in Sweden, and with evidence also pointing to possible inequities in various aspects of PHC provision. Evidence on the reform's impact on population-level primary health care performance and equity in performance remains scarce. The present study therefore aimed to examine whether the increase in private provision after the reform impacted on population-average rates of avoidable hospitalizations, as well as on corresponding socioeconomic inequities. METHODS: This register-based study used a multiple-group interrupted time-series design for the study period 2001-2017, with the study population (N = 51 million observations) randomly drawn from the total Swedish population aged 18-85 years. High, medium, and low implementing comparison groups were classified by tertiles of increase in private PHC providers after the reform. PHC performance was measured by avoidable hospitalizations, and socioeconomic position by education and income. Interrupted time series analysis based on individual-level data was used to estimate the reform impact on avoidable hospitalization risk, and on inequities through the Relative Index of Inequality (RII). RESULTS: All three comparisons groups displayed decreasing risk of avoidable hospitalizations but increasing socioeconomic inequities across the study period. Compared to regions with little change in provision after the reform, regions with large increase in private provision saw a steeper decrease in avoidable hospitalizations after the reform (relative risk (95%): 1.6% (1.1; 2.1)), but at the same time steeper increase in inequities (by education: 2.0% (0.1%; 4.0); by income: 2.2% (-0.1; 4.3)). CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that the increase in private health care centers, enabled by the choice reform, contributed to a small improvement when it comes to overall PHC performance, but simultaneously to increased socioeconomic inequities in PHC performance. This duality in the impact of the Swedish reform also reflects the arguments in the European health policy debate on patient choice PHC models, with hopes of improved performance but fears of increased inequities.

The performance of interrupted time series designs with a limited number of time points: Learning losses due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Interrupted time series (ITS) designs are increasingly used for estimating the effect of shocks in natural experiments. Currently, ITS designs are often used in scenarios with many time points and simple data structures. This research investigates the performance of ITS designs when the number of time points is limited and with complex data structures. Using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we empirically derive the performance-in terms of power, bias and precision- of the ITS design. Scenarios are considered with multiple interventions, a low number of time points and different effect sizes based on a motivating example of the learning loss due to COVID school closures. The results of the simulation study show the power of the step change depends mostly on the sample size, while the power of the slope change depends on the number of time points. In the basic scenario, with both a step and a slope change and an effect size of 30% of the pre-intervention slope, the required sample size for detecting a step change is 1,100 with a minimum of twelve time points. For detecting a slope change the required sample size decreases to 500 with eight time points. To decide if there is enough power researchers should inspect their data, hypothesize about effect sizes and consider an appropriate model before applying an ITS design to their research. This paper contributes to the field of methodology in two ways. Firstly, the motivation example showcases the difficulty of employing ITS designs in cases which do not adhere to a single intervention. Secondly, models are proposed for more difficult ITS designs and their performance is tested.