RESUMO
PURPOSE: To explore the potential of monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) at hospital admission for predicting acute traumatic intraparenchymal hematoma (tICH) expansion in patients with cerebral contusion. Patients and Methods. This multicenter, observational study included patients with available at-hospital admission (baseline) and follow-up computed tomography for volumetric analysis (retrospective development cohort: 1146 patients; prospective validation cohort: 207 patients). Semiautomated software assessed tICH expansion (defined as ≥33% or 5 mL absolute growth). MLR was acquired from routine blood tests upon admission. We constructed two predictive models: basic combined model of clinical and imaging variables and MLR combined model of both MLR and other variables in the basic model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to estimate the performance of MLR for predicting acute tICH expansion. RESULTS: MLR was significantly larger in patients with acute tICH expansion compared to those without acute tICH expansion (mean [SD], 1.08 [1.05] vs. 0.59 [0.37], P < 0.001). A nonlinear positive relationship between MLR and the incidence of acute tICH expansion was observed. Multivariate logistic regression indicated MLR as an independent risk factor for acute tICH expansion (odds ratio (OR), 5.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.02-8.61). The power of the multivariate model for predicting acute tICH expansion was substantially improved with the inclusion of MLR (AUC 0.86 vs. AUC 0.74, P < 0.001), as was also observed in an external validation cohort (AUC 0.83 vs. AUC 0.71, P < 0.001). The net benefit of MLR model was higher between threshold probabilities of 20-100% in DCA. For clinical application, a nomogram derived from the multivariate model with MLR was introduced. In addition, MLR was positively associated with 6-month unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSION: MLR is a novel predictor for traumatic parenchymatous hematoma expansion. A nomogram derived from the MLR model may provide an easy-to-use tool for predicting acute tICH expansion and promoting the individualized treatment of patients with hemorrhagic cerebral contusion. MLR is associated with long-term outcome after cerebral contusion.
