Modeling the impact of sea level rise on endangered deer habitat.

Numerous unique flora and fauna inhabit the Lower Florida Keys, including the endangered Florida Key deer, found nowhere else. In this vulnerable habitat of flat islands with low elevation, accelerated sea level rise poses a threat. Predicting the impact of sea level rise on vegetation and wildlife is crucial. This study used 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sea level rise scenarios to assess their effects on No Name Key, Florida. The goal was to estimate changes in the Florida Key deer population relative to sea level rise using a lidar-derived elevation data and a vegetation map. The method used 2 cases to model the sea level rise impact. In Case 1, total non-submerged area at current sea level was determined. Using 5 IPCC scenarios, a new total non-submerged land area was estimated, and deer numbers were predicted for each scenario. In Case 2, upward migration of coastal vegetation combined with the coastal squeeze process was modeled. A distinct elevation range for each vegetation type at the current sea level was determined. Vegetation ranges were redistributed based on respective elevation ranges in the sea level rise scenarios. Areas for each vegetation type were recalculated, and Key deer numbers were estimated for each sea level rise scenario. Results under the worst emission scenario showed the following: (1) for case 1, the land area was reduced to 30 % of the current land area, corresponding to having about 27 deer, and (2) for case 2, the land area was reduced to 70 % of the current land area, having about 54 deer on No Name Key. The results indicated reduced non-submerged land area and less upland vegetation, particularly hardwoods/hammocks, by the year 2100. As less land area is available, a decline in Key deer population is expected as sea levels rise. Since Key deer favor upland vegetation, habitat affected by sea level rise will likely support a smaller deer population. The findings emphasize the need for precise, timely predictions of sea level rise impacts and long-term conservation strategies. Specifically designed measures are required to protect and maintain endangered wildlife, such as the Florida Key deer, residing on these vulnerable islands.

Disappearing cities on US coasts.

The sea level along the US coastlines is projected to rise by 0.25-0.3 m by 2050, increasing the probability of more destructive flooding and inundation in major cities1-3. However, these impacts may be exacerbated by coastal subsidence-the sinking of coastal land areas4-a factor that is often underrepresented in coastal-management policies and long-term urban planning2,5. In this study, we combine high-resolution vertical land motion (that is, raising or lowering of land) and elevation datasets with projections of sea-level rise to quantify the potential inundated areas in 32 major US coastal cities. Here we show that, even when considering the current coastal-defence structures, further land area of between 1,006 and 1,389 km2 is threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to a population of 55,000-273,000 people and 31,000-171,000 properties. Our analysis shows that not accounting for spatially variable land subsidence within the cities may lead to inaccurate projections of expected exposure. These potential consequences show the scale of the adaptation challenge, which is not appreciated in most US coastal cities.

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

Incorporation of uncertainty to improve projections of tidal wetland elevation and carbon accumulation with sea-level rise.

Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework includes an improved calibration scheme that more accurately reconstructs soil profiles and incorporates parameter uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations. Using WARMER-2, we evaluated elevation change in three tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay Estuary, CA, USA along an estuarine tidal and salinity gradient with varying scenarios of SLR, salinization, and changes in sediment availability. We also tested the sensitivity of marsh elevation and carbon accumulation rates to different plant productivity functions. Wetland elevation at all three sites was sensitive to changes in sediment availability, but sites with greater initial elevations or space for upland transgression persisted longer under higher SLR rates than sites at lower elevations. Using a multi-species wetland vegetation transition model for organic matter contribution to accretion, WARMER-2 projected increased elevations relative to sea levels (resilience) and higher rates of carbon accumulation when compared with projections assuming no future change in vegetation with SLR. A threshold analysis revealed that all three wetland sites were likely to eventually transition to an unvegetated state with SLR rates above 7 mm/yr. Our results show the utility in incorporating additional estuary-specific parameters to bolster confidence in model projections. The new WARMER-2 modeling framework is widely applicable to other tidal wetland ecosystems and can assist in teasing apart important drivers of wetland elevation change under SLR.

Estuarine tidal range dynamics under rising sea levels.

How an estuary responds to sea level rise (SLR) is complex and depends on energy drivers (e.g., tides and river inflows), estuarine geometry (e.g., length and depth), intrinsic fluid properties (e.g., density), and bed/bank roughness. While changes to the tidal range under SLR can impact estuarine sediment transport, water quality, and vegetation communities, studies on the altered tidal range under SLR are often based on case studies with outcomes applicable to a specific site. As such, this study produced a large ensemble of estuarine hydrodynamic models (>1800) to provide a systematic understanding of how tidal range dynamics within different estuary types may change under various SLR and river inflow scenarios. The results indicated that SLR often amplifies the tidal range of different estuary types, except for short estuaries with a low tidal range at the mouth where SLR attenuates the tides. SLR alters the location of the points with minimum tidal range and overall tidal range patterns in an estuary. Variations in tidal range were more evident in converging estuaries, shallower systems, or in estuaries with strong river inflows. These findings provide an indication of how different estuary types may respond to estuaries and may assist estuarine managers and decision makers.

Past, present, and future nuisance flooding on the Charleston peninsula.

A forecast of nuisance flooding of Charleston peninsula is presented, based on an analysis of tide records from Charleston Harbor, SC. The forecast was based on past trends in local sea level and tidal harmonics, including the 18.6-yr lunar nodal and annual cycles. The data document an exponential rise in mean sea level. Extrapolating to year 2060 shows that the sea-level trend already is equivalent to the RCP4.5 scenario and on track to exceed NOAA's intermediate low sea-level rise scenario of 0.5 m this century. If the trend continues, MSL will have risen by 0.22 m in 50 yr at an annual rate of 0.5 cm/yr in 2069. Simulations to 2064-2068, based on an empirical relationship between the annual number of flood events, defined as a water level exceeding 1.17 m NAVD (North American Vertical Datum of 1988), and the annual sum of monthly mean high water (r2 = 0.84), predict annual flood events will rise to the 60 to 75 range. Application of the hourly tidal harmonics to the long-term sea-level trend provided estimates of total land area flooded and duration of flooding. Flood duration is expected to rise to 6.5% by 2046-2050 and 8.2% of time by 2064-2068. The area exposed to flooding will be 4.23 km2 in 2046-2050 and 4.46 km2 in 2064-2068, corresponding to about 20-21% of peninsular area on what was formerly marshland and creeks, filled in earlier centuries. Finally, the estimated cost of defending the city and a proposal for a climate tax are discussed.

Global-scale human impact on delta morphology has led to net land area gain.

River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. Even in the absence of sea-level rise, deltas are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards as declining sediment supply and climate change alter their sediment budget, affecting delta morphology and possibly leading to erosion1-3. However, the relationship between deltaic sediment budgets, oceanographic forces of waves and tides, and delta morphology has remained poorly quantified. Here we show how the morphology of about 11,000 coastal deltas worldwide, ranging from small bayhead deltas to mega-deltas, has been affected by river damming and deforestation. We introduce a model that shows that present-day delta morphology varies across a continuum between wave (about 80 per cent), tide (around 10 per cent) and river (about 10 per cent) dominance, but that most large deltas are tide- and river-dominated. Over the past 30 years, despite sea-level rise, deltas globally have experienced a net land gain of 54 ± 12 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations), with the largest 1 per cent of deltas being responsible for 30 per cent of all net land area gains. Humans are a considerable driver of these net land gains-25 per cent of delta growth can be attributed to deforestation-induced increases in fluvial sediment supply. Yet for nearly 1,000 deltas, river damming4 has resulted in a severe (more than 50 per cent) reduction in anthropogenic sediment flux, forcing a collective loss of 12 ± 3.5 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations) of deltaic land. Not all deltas lose land in response to river damming: deltas transitioning towards tide dominance are currently gaining land, probably through channel infilling. With expected accelerated sea-level rise5, however, recent land gains are unlikely to be sustained throughout the twenty-first century. Understanding the redistribution of sediments by waves and tides will be critical for successfully predicting human-driven change to deltas, both locally and globally.