Experiences in treatment of multiple sclerosis with natalizumab from a real-life cohort over 15 years.

Natalizumab (NTZ) has been used for treatment of highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). When stopping NTZ the risk of severe rebound phenomenon has to be considered. We aimed to investigate the use of NTZ in clinical routine and focused on identification of potential risk factors for disease reactivation after treatment discontinuation. At the Medical University of Innsbruck, Austria, we identified all MS patients who were treated with NTZ and performed a retrospective analysis on therapeutic decision making, disease course before, during and after treatment with NTZ and on risk factors for disease reactivation after NTZ discontinuation. 235 NTZ treated MS patients were included, of whom 105 had discontinued treatment. At NTZ start disease duration was 5.09 (IQR 2.09-10.57) years, average number of total relapses was 4 (IQR 3-6) and median EDSS 2.0 (range 0-6.5), whereby these values significantly decreased over time. Reduction of annualized relapse rate (ARR) on treatment was 93% and EDSS remained stable in 64%. In multivariate regression models only conversion to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) on treatment was significantly associated with lower risk of disease reactivation after NTZ, while ARR before treatment was associated with earlier disease reactivation. We could confirm the high therapeutic efficacy of NTZ which trends to be used earlier in the disease course nowadays. Discontinuation of NTZ seems safe only in patients who convert to SPMS during treatment, while higher ARR before NTZ increases the risk of disease reactivation after treatment discontinuation.

Comparison of Dimethyl Fumarate vs Fingolimod and Rituximab vs Natalizumab for Treatment of Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: As disease-modifying treatment options for multiple sclerosis increase, comparisons of the options based on real-world evidence may guide clinical decision-making. Objective: To compare the relapse outcomes between 2 pairs of disease-modifying treatments: dimethyl fumarate vs fingolimod and natalizumab vs rituximab. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study integrated data from a clinic-based multiple sclerosis research registry and its linked electronic health records (EHR) system between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2016, and built treatment groups for each pairwise disease-modifying treatment comparison according to both registry records and electronic prescriptions. Parallel analyses were conducted from October 11, 2019, to July 7, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were the 1-year and 2-year relapse rates as well as the time to relapse. To compare relapse outcomes, the study adjusted for covariates from 2 sources (registry and EHR) and corrected for confounding biases among the covariates by the doubly robust estimation. Results: The study included 4 treatment groups: dimethyl fumarate (n = 260; 198 women [76.2%]; 227 non-Hispanic White individuals [87.3%]; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 41.7 [10.4] years), fingolimod (n = 267; 190 women [71.2%]; 222 non-Hispanic White individuals [83.1%]; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 37.9 [9.9] years), natalizumab (n = 204; 160 women [78.4%]; 172 non-Hispanic White individuals [84.3%]; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 37.2 [10.6] years), and rituximab (n = 115; 83 women [72.2%]; 99 non-Hispanic White individuals [86.1%]; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 44.1 [11.1] years). No significant differences were found in the relapse outcomes between dimethyl fumarate and fingolimod after correcting for confounding biases and multiple testing (difference in 1-year relapse rate, 0.028 [95% CI, -0.031 to 0.084]; difference in 2-year relapse rate, 0.071 [95% CI, 0.008-0.128]; relative risk of 2-year non-relapse, 0.957 [95% CI, 0.884-1.035] with dimethyl fumarate as reference). When compared with rituximab, natalizumab was associated with a higher relapse rate for all 3 outcomes after bias correction and multiple testing (difference in 1-year relapse rate, 0.080 [95% CI, 0.013-0.137]; difference in 2-year relapse rate, 0.132 [95% CI, 0.043-0.189]; relative risk of 2-year non-relapse, 0.903 [95% CI, 0.822-0.944]). Confounders were identified from EHR data not recorded in the registry data through data-driven feature selection. Conclusions and Relevance: This study reports real-world evidence of equivalent relapse outcomes between dimethyl fumarate and fingolimod and relapse reduction in favor of rituximab relative to natalizumab. This approach illustrates the value of incorporating EHR data as high-dimensional covariates in real-world treatment comparison.

Do disease-modifying drugs (DMD) have a positive impact on the occurrence of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis? No.

RR MS evolution has changed since the beginning of the availability of MS disease-modifying drugs (DMD). Before concluding a unique impact of the efficiency of DMD, careful analysis of long-term studies has to be conducted. Analysis of the literature points out a few bias in the long-term follow of MS patients under DMD: indication of DMD has changed since 20 years, diagnosis criteria are not the same (including the Will Rogers phenomen), and so far population are not homogeneous and comparable. Analysis criteria of the efficiency of the treatments are not the same, pending on the date of the publications. References concerning the long-term impact of DMD are in fact very limited. In addition, long-term efficiency of 2nd line treatments is not available. Another explanation of the change of MS evolution could be the lower evolutivity of MS patients since 2 decades. Analysis of placebo group in pivotal studies, argues to a decrease of the relapse annual rate and mean EDSS score in the more recent studies and recent MS diagnosed patients. To conclude, long-term evolution of MS patients is more favorable, influence of DMD is likely, but not unique.

Do disease-modifying drugs (DMD) have a positive impact on the occurrence of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis? Comment.

Very recent data from cohorts, such as that of the French Observatory of Multiple Sclerosis (OFSEP) and the MSBase cohort, are the subject of new statistical analyses using propensity scores that enable the matching of relapses frequency, EDSS, age, and sex ratio in patient populations for comparisons with each other, which reduces selection biases. The first data from these cohorts revealed a decline in transition to secondary progressive MS with the most effective disease-modifying drugs currently available, especially when these drugs were used early in the disease. However, these studies remain limited regarding the number of patients, the duration of follow-up, the use of imperfect methodologies, and the level of evidence remains low. The Gothenburg cohort in Sweden, which has been followed since the 1950s, found that 14% of benign non-progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) never evolved to secondary progression after more than 45 years of evolution. EDSS 7 was reached after 48 years of disease (median), and 50% evolved to secondary progressive MS after 15 years (consistent with data from the historic London, Ontario cohort). These data demonstrate that most people living with MS evolve without treatment to a significant long-term disability and that this evolution is closely linked to secondary progression (more than the relapse frequency). Benign forms appear as MS that never passes into secondary progressive MS. Recent data demonstrate that the delay until transition to secondary progression (more than 30 years in the MSBase cohort) and the delay in reaching EDSS 6 decreased since the introduction of disease-modifying drugs 20 years ago. However, randomized placebo-controlled trials do not last more than 2 or 3 years, and many biases may be involved in long-term follow-up studies: worsening patients who are lost to follow-up ("informative censoring" bias: only good responders to treatment remain primarily under the same long-term treatment and are followed); changes in the populations in the most recent studies with a lower rate of relapse and lower progression of disability at the beginning of the disease prior to initiating treatments; and environmental changes that remain largely misunderstood and may contribute to a natural evolution towards less severe disease.

Do disease-modifying drugs (DMD) have a positive impact on the occurrence of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis? Yes.

During the 20 past years, the management of multiple sclerosis (MS) has largely changed especially concerning therapeutical approach. Before 1996, treatments were restricted to corticosteroids for relapses, several symptomatic treatments and unselective immunosuppressive drugs (azathioprine, cyclophosphamide, methotrexate) with a low evidence of any efficacy. In the present review, we analyze the principal real-life cohorts of MS during several periods (before therapeutical modern area, first-generation treatment area and most recent period). Despite many methodological problems, we observe globally a delay of around 3-5 years between untreated cohorts and first-generation treatments for going to EDSS 6 which is probably the most robust score. This delay is clearly increase to at least 15 years with the most recent cohort treated first and second-line treatments confirming that early and more intensive treatment are necessary to have a long-term efficacy on disability progression and especially on severe disability represent by EDSS 6. Larger cohorts with longer follow-up is necessary to confirm these tendencies and OFSEP observatory or MS base will probably provide us the possibility to conclude in a couple of years.

Intravenous immunoglobulins for the prevention of postpartum relapses in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) on prevention of postpartum relapses in women with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). METHODS: This was a retrospective study performed in Ljubljana, Slovenia where the practice for all pregnant women with RRMS is to receive IVIG after the delivery (10 g monthly, during first 6 months after delivery) and in Zagreb, Croatia where no such practice exists. The following data were collected: date of delivery, maternal age at delivery, year of the RRMS diagnosis, EDSS, disease modifying therapy prior to pregnancy, relapses in the year prior, during and in the period of one year after pregnancy. RESULTS: Data on 132 pregnancies from 112 women (mean age at delivery 31.70±4.10, average disease duration 6.34±4.33) were analyzed. There was no association between the IVIG treatment and annualized relapse rate one year after the delivery (0.27 vs 0.38, rate ratio 1.409, 95% CI 0.764-2.598, p = 0.272). No risk factors for the postpartum relapse were identified (age at delivery, duration of RRMS, EDSS prior pregnancy, disease modifying therapy prior pregnancy, relapses in the year prior pregnancy, IVIG). CONCLUSION: This study provides no evidence of benefit for postpartum administration of IVIG in women with RRMS.

Differentiating societal costs of disability worsening in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In multiple sclerosis (MS), confirmed disability progression (CDP) can be either the result of progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) or relapse-associated worsening (RAW). However, the economic effect of PIRA and RAW on societal economic costs in patients with MS is not well understood. OBJECTIVE: To determine societal economic costs of patients achieving disease activity free status (DAF) and compare them with those having PIRA and RAW events. METHODS: We used a roving EDSS score analysis to detect PIRA and RAW events with confirmation after at least 6 months. We estimated the age-, gender-, EDSS-adjusted effects of PIRA and RAW on total, direct medical, direct non-medical and indirect societal economic costs. Patients achieving DAF were assigned to as reference. RESULTS: Overall, 1959 patients were analyzed. Total mean quarterly societal economic costs including disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) were 6929€ (SD: 2886€) per patient averaged over a period of 2 years. Excluding DMTs, patients achieving DAF had total mean quarterly costs of 1703€ (SD: 2489€). PIRA caused 29% (IRR: 1.29; CI 1.06-1.50, p < 0.05) higher total costs compared to DAF. On the contrary, RAW increased total costs by factor 1.56 (CI 1.30-1.87, p < 0.001). The effect of PIRA and RAW was striking for direct medical costs which increased by factor 1.48 (95% CI 1.13-1.95, p < 0.01) and 2.25 (95% CI 1.72-2.94, p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSION: Disease progression increases societal economic costs significantly. Thus, delaying or even preventing disease progression in MS may reduce the societal economic burden of MS.

Postpartum Treatment With Immunoglobulin Does Not Prevent Relapses of Multiple Sclerosis in the Mother.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, neurological, immune-mediated disease that can worsen in the postpartum period. There is no consensus on the use of immunoglobulin for prevention of disease relapses after delivery. We have shown that the controversial beneficial effect of immunoglobulin given immediately after birth could not be observed in patients with MS.

A case study of modeling and exposure-response prediction for count data.

Even with two doses of an experimental drug in Phase III studies, with the commonly used approach for assessing treatment effects of individual doses, it may still be difficult to determine the final commercial dose. In such a scenario, with plasma concentration data collected in the studies, a modeling approach can be applied to predict treatment effects at different plasma concentration levels. Through an established relationship between plasma concentration and dose, the treatment effects of doses not studied in the Phase III studies can then be predicted. The results can further be applied to justify the final dose confirmation or selection. In this article, a Phase III program example with count data as the primary endpoint in the multiple sclerosis area is used to illustrate the application of such a technique for dose confirmation. Several models, such as the overdispersion Poisson model, negative binomial model, and recurrent event models, are considered. The negative binomial model is preferable due to better data fitting and the capability of within-treatment assessment and between-treatment comparison.

Advances in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

This article reviews and discusses the approved and emerging therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS). MS is a chronic and disabling immune-mediated disease of the central nervous system (CNS) that affects mainly young adults. MS imposes a huge economic burden on healthcare systems and the society. Although the last 20 years have brought a continuous expansion in therapeutic options, there are still unmet needs in MS management. Available MS drugs have varying degrees of efficacy in reducing relapse risk. The long-term term effects of these treatments are incompletely known. New therapies, along with variations of currently available treatments, may prove more effective and tolerable than the available drugs. Treatments for MS differ with respect to the mode of administration, tolerability and likelihood of treatment adherence, side effects, and risk of major toxicity. The armamentarium of approved disease-modifying therapies in MS and those in development include: (1) the first approved, moderately effective, injectable interferon-ß and glatiramer acetate; (2) oral drugs (fingolimod, laquinimod, teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate); (3) monoclonal antibodies (rituximab, ocrelizumab, ofatumumab, daclizumab, alemtuzumab); and (4) immunosuppressive agents (e.g. mitoxantrone). The place of each drug in the therapeutic algorithm is dependent on its specific risk-benefit profile. Patients' clinical and paraclinical phenotypes and biomarker profile may help to elucidate disease subtypes and response to therapy in the future, thus allowing treatment individualization.

Fingolimod after natalizumab and the risk of short-term relapse.

OBJECTIVE: To determine early risk of relapse after switch from natalizumab to fingolimod; to compare the switch experience to that in patients switching from interferon-ß/glatiramer acetate (IFN-ß/GA) and those previously treatment naive; and to determine predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod. METHODS: Data were obtained from the MSBase Registry. Relapse rates (RRs) for each patient group were compared using adjusted negative binomial regression. Survival analyses coupled with adjusted Cox regression were used to model predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod. RESULTS: A total of 536 patients (natalizumab-fingolimod [n = 89]; IFN-ß/GA-fingolimod [n = 350]; naive-fingolimod [n = 97]) were followed up for a median 10 months. In the natalizumab-fingolimod group, there was a small increase in RR on fingolimod (annualized RR [ARR] 0.38) relative to natalizumab (ARR 0.26; p = 0.002). RRs were generally low across all patient groups in the first 9 months on fingolimod (RR 0.001-0.13). However, 30% of patients with disease activity on natalizumab relapsed within the first 6 months on fingolimod. Independent predictors of time to first relapse on fingolimod were the number of relapses in the prior 6 months (hazard ratio [HR] 1.59 per relapse; p = 0.002) and a gap in treatment of 2-4 months compared to no gap (HR 2.10; p = 0.041). CONCLUSIONS: RRs after switch to fingolimod were low in all patient groups. The strongest predictor of relapse on fingolimod was prior relapse activity. Based on our data, we recommend a maximum 2-month treatment gap for switches to fingolimod to decrease the hazard of relapse. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that RRs are not higher in patients with multiple sclerosis switching to fingolimod from natalizumab compared to those patients switching to fingolimod from other therapies.

Alemtuzumab: a review of its use in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis.

Alemtuzumab (Lemtrada™) is a humanized therapeutic monoclonal antibody, which has been approved for use in patients with B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukaemia for several years, and has recently become approved in the EU and several other countries for use in adult patients with active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. This article reviews the available pharmacological properties of intravenous infusions of alemtuzumab and its clinical efficacy and tolerability in adult patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Alemtuzumab is an effective treatment for patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, and has a generally acceptable tolerability profile. In phase III trials, it was shown to be more effective than a current first-line treatment, subcutaneous interferon beta-1a, in decreasing relapse rate in treatment-naïve and previously treated patients and in decreasing disability progression in previously treated patients. Of note, these results appear to have extended into the long-term follow-up, despite no further treatment. There was an increased risk of autoimmunity and infection associated with alemtuzumab in these trials; while these adverse events were generally mild to moderate, some were severe. Alemtuzumab is a highly convenient treatment, requiring hospital attendance for an intravenous infusion for a handful of days on two consecutive years, with no treatment required in between; however, this convenience is counterbalanced by the need for regular monitoring for the increased risk of autoimmunity. More investigation is required before final conclusions can be drawn on the correct placement of alemtuzumab in multiple sclerosis treatment; however, it is of a certainty a welcome addition to the treatment options for these patients.

Natalizumab: a review of its use in the management of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Natalizumab (Tysabri®) is a humanized monoclonal antibody against the α4 chain of integrins and was the first targeted therapy to be approved for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Natalizumab acts as a selective adhesion molecule antagonist, which binds very late antigen (VLA)-4 and inhibits the translocation of activated VLA-4-expressing leukocytes across the blood-brain barrier into the CNS. In a pivotal phase III clinical trial, natalizumab 300 mg intravenously every 4 weeks for 2 years in adults with RRMS significantly reduced the annualized relapse rate and the risk of sustained progression of disability compared with placebo, as well as significantly increasing the proportion of relapse-free patients at 1 and 2 years. Natalizumab also significantly reduced the number of T2-hyperintense, gadolinium-enhancing and T1-hypointense lesions on magnetic resonance imaging, and significantly reduced the volume of T2-hyperintense and T1-hypointense lesions compared with placebo. Natalizumab recipients generally experienced improved health-related quality of life at 1-2 years. Natalizumab was generally well tolerated in pivotal trials. The only adverse events that were more frequent with natalizumab monotherapy than with placebo were fatigue and allergic reactions. The main safety and tolerability issue with natalizumab is the incidence of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). As long as the risk of PML is managed effectively, natalizumab is a valuable therapeutic option for adults with highly active relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis.

Laquinimod for multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic immune-mediated, inflammatory, demyelinating, neurodegenerative disorder of the central nervous system, and it causes major socioeconomic burden for the individual patient and for society. An inflammatory pathology occurs during the early relapsing stage of MS and a neurodegenerative pathology dominates the later progressive stage of the disease. Not all MS patients respond adequately to currently available disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). Alternative MS treatments with new modes of action are required to expand the current options for disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) and to aim for freedom from relapses, inflammatory lesions, disability progression and neurodegeneration. Laquinimod has dual properties of immunomodulation and neuroprotection and is a potentially promising new oral DMD in the treatment of relapsing MS. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and safety profile of laquinimod as monotherapy or combination therapy versus placebo or approved DMDs (interferon-ß, glatiramer acetate, natalizumab, mitoxantrone, fingolimod, teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate) for modifying the disease course in patients with MS. SEARCH METHODS: The Review Group Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the Cochrane Multiple Sclerosis and Rare Diseases of the Central Nervous System Group Specialised Register which, among other sources, contains trials from CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2013, Issue 2), MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, LILACS, PEDro and Clinical trials registries (29 April 2013). We checked references in identified trials and manually searched the reports (2004 to March 2013) from neurological associations and MS societies. We also communicated with researchers participating in trials on laquinimod and contacted Teva Pharmaceutical Industries. SELECTION CRITERIA: All randomised, double-blind, controlled, parallel group clinical trials (RCTs) with a length of follow-up of at least one year evaluating laquinimod, as monotherapy or combination therapy, versus placebo or approved DMDs for patients with MS. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed trial quality. Disagreements were discussed and resolved by consensus among review authors. Principal investigators of included studies were contacted for additional data or confirmation of information. MAIN RESULTS: Only one study met our inclusion criteria, involving 1106 adult patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and an entry Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of ≤ 5.5 and an entry disease duration of ≥ 6 months. Five hundred and fifty patients treated with laquinimod at a dose of 0.6 mg orally administered once daily in a capsule were compared with 556 patients treated with a matching placebo capsule. The study had a high risk for attrition bias (21.9%). Laquinimod had potential benefits in reducing relapse rates and was safe for most patients with RRMS in the short term. The most common adverse events included headache, back pain, arthralgia, diarrhoea, cough, urinary tract infection, elevated alanine aminotransferase, insomnia, nausea, abdominal pain and sinusitis. One ongoing trial was identified. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found low-level evidence for the use of laquinimod as a disease-modifying therapy for MS because only one study with limited quality (high risk of attrition bias) was included. The published study suggests that laquinimod at a dose of 0.6 mg orally administered once daily may be safe and have potential benefits for most patients with RRMS in the short term. We are waiting for the publication of ongoing trials.

Teriflunomide reduces relapse-related neurological sequelae, hospitalizations and steroid use.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses impose a substantial clinical and economic burden. Teriflunomide is a new oral disease-modifying therapy approved for the treatment of relapsing MS. We evaluated the effects of teriflunomide treatment on relapse-related neurological sequelae and healthcare resource use in a post hoc analysis of the Phase III TEMSO study. Confirmed relapses associated with neurological sequelae [defined by an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale/Functional System (sequelae-EDSS/FS) ≥ 30 days post relapse or by the investigator (sequelae-investigator)] were analyzed in the modified intention-to-treat population (n = 1086). Relapses requiring hospitalization or intravenous (IV) corticosteroids, all hospitalizations, emergency medical facility visits (EMFV), and hospitalized nights for relapse were also assessed. Annualized rates were derived using a Poisson model with treatment, baseline EDSS strata, and region as covariates. Risks of sequelae and hospitalization per relapse were calculated as percentages and groups were compared with a χ(2) test. Compared with placebo, teriflunomide reduced annualized rates of relapses with sequelae-EDSS/FS [7 mg by 32 % (p = 0.0019); 14 mg by 36 % (p = 0.0011)] and sequelae-investigator [25 % (p = 0.071); 53 % (p < 0.0001)], relapses leading to hospitalization [36 % (p = 0.015); 59 % (p < 0.0001)], and relapses requiring IV corticosteroids [29 % (p = 0.001); 34 % (p = 0.0003)]. Teriflunomide-treated patients spent fewer nights in hospital for relapse (p < 0.01). Teriflunomide 14 mg also decreased annualized rates of all hospitalizations (p = 0.01) and EMFV (p = 0.004). The impact of teriflunomide on relapse-related neurological sequelae and relapses requiring healthcare resources may translate into reduced healthcare costs.

Comparative effectiveness of early natalizumab treatment in JC virus-negative relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the long-term comparative effectiveness of first-line treatment in patients negative for anti-JC virus (JCV) antibodies with glatiramer acetate (GA), fingolimod, or natalizumab for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). STUDY DESIGN: We developed a simulation model to estimate the average 20-year clinical risks and benefits of GA, fingolimod, and natalizumab for RRMS patients initially negative for anti-JCV antibodies. METHODS: Model inputs included published natural history progressions of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), treatment effects from randomized controlled trials on slowing disease progression and reducing relapse rates, risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), and utility preference scores. Outputs were long-term risks (PML risk and other non-PML risks), benefits (average relapse rate and time to disability [EDSS >7]), and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: Compared with GA, natalizumab resulted in 4.6 fewer relapses, 0.6 more years of disability free time, 0.0165 more cases of PML per treated patient, and an incremental 1.2 QALYs gained. Compared with fingolimod, natalizumab resulted in 1.7 fewer relapses, 0.1 more years of disability free time, 0.0165 more cases of PML per treated patient, and an incremental 0.4 QALYs gained. The probability that incremental QALYs favored natalizumab over GA was 0.963 and natalizumab over fingolimod was 0.720. CONCLUSIONS: Average QALYs, a measure that aggregates across risks and benefits, favored natalizumab, suggesting more aggressive early intervention with natalizumab in the negative anti-JCV population. For certain decision makers, more evidence may be needed to further reduce the uncertainty in these comparative projections prior to making population-based adoption decisions.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of subcutaneous interferon beta-1a 44mcg 3-times a week vs no treatment for patients with clinically isolated syndrome in Sweden.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of subcutaneous interferon (sc IFN) beta-1a 44 mcg 3-times weekly (tiw) vs no treatment at reducing the risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS) in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) in Sweden. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to simulate the clinical course of patients with CIS treated with sc IFN beta-1a 44 mcg tiw or no treatment over a 40-year time horizon. Costs were estimated from a societal perspective in 2012 Swedish kronor (SEK). Treatment efficacy data were derived from the REFLEX trial; resource use and quality-of-life (QoL) data were obtained from the literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%. Sensitivity analyses explored whether results were robust to changes in input values and use of Poser criteria. RESULTS: Using McDonald criteria sc IFN beta-1a was cost-saving and more effective (i.e., dominant) vs no treatment. Gains in progression free life years (PFLYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 1.63 and 0.53, respectively. Projected cost savings were 270,263 SEK. For Poser criteria cost savings of 823,459 SEK were estimated, with PFLY and QALY gains of 4.12 and 1.38, respectively. Subcutaneous IFN beta-1a remained dominant from a payer perspective. Results were insensitive to key input variation. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis estimated a 99.9% likelihood of cost-effectiveness at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 500,000 SEK/QALY. CONCLUSION: Subcutaneous IFN beta-1a is a cost-effective option for the treatment of patients at high risk of MS conversion. It is associated with lower costs, greater QALY gains, and more time free of MS. LIMITATIONS: The risk of conversion from CIS to MS was extrapolated from 2-year trial data. Treatment benefit was assumed to persist over the model duration, although long-term data to support this are unavailable. Cost and QoL data from MS patients were assumed applicable to CIS patients.