Contribution of market value chain to the control of African swine fever in Zambia.

African swine fever (ASF) is a worldwide disease of pigs endemic in most sub-Saharan African countries. Zambia has been experiencing outbreaks of ASF for many years because the disease is endemic in the eastern part of the country, with incursion into the central part of Lusaka Province. The latest outbreaks of ASF in Lusaka occurred in 2013 with substantial pig mortalities, loss in trade, and cost of control measures and compensation of affected farmers. The aims of the study were to identify market value chain-related factors that were associated with ASF outbreaks and assess why these outbreaks are becoming frequent despite control measures being put in place. Using a mixed-method design, participants involved in the value chain were purposively sampled. Some pig farmers were included using a respondent-driven technique. Farmers came from Lusaka, Chilanga, Kafue, and Chongwe districts. Other participants included district veterinary officers, veterinary assistants, police officers, and veterinary staff manning veterinary checkpoints, abattoir and processing plant managers, meat inspectors, market chairpersons, and traders. Semi-structured questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and direct observations were used to collect data to come up with narrations, tables, and flow charts. In assessing the contribution of the value chain in ASF, aspects of ASF screening, market availability and procedures, knowledge on ASF transmission, occurrence of ASF outbreak, and regulation of pig movement were investigated. Despite government ASF control measures being applied, the following were noted: (1) low awareness levels of ASF transmission among pig farmers and traders; (2) only 50% of farmers had their animals screened for ASF before sale; (3) all the markets did not have the pork inspected; (4) laxity in enforcing livestock movement control because of inadequate police and veterinary staff manning checkpoints; (5) lack of enforcement of meat inspection and food safety regulations at pig markets; and (6) inadequate and bureaucratic ASF screening. Improving biosecurity; sensitizing farmers, traders, and all stakeholders in the pig value chain on ASF prevention and control; reinforcement of staff at checkpoints; and regulation of pig markets are some of the ways in which future outbreaks can be prevented.

Quantitative assessment of social and economic impact of African swine fever outbreaks in northern Uganda.

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important pig diseases, causing high case fatality rate and trade restrictions upon reported outbreaks. In Uganda, a low-income country with the largest pig population in East Africa, ASF is endemic. Animal disease impact is multidimensional and include social and economic impact along the value chain. In low-income settings, this impact keep people poor and push those that have managed to escape poverty back again. If the diseases can be controlled, their negative consequences can be mitigated. However, to successfully argue for investment in disease control, its cost-benefits need to be demonstrated. One part in the cost-benefit equations is disease impact quantification. The objective of this study was therefore to investigate the socio-economic impact of ASF outbreaks at household level in northern Uganda. In a longitudinal study, structured interviews with two hundred, randomly selected, pig-keeping households were undertaken three times with a six month interval. Questions related to family and pig herd demographics, pig trade and pig business. Associations between ASF outbreaks and economic and social impact variables were evaluated using linear regression models. The study showed that pigs were kept in extreme low-input-low-output farming systems involving only small monetary investments. Yearly incidence of ASF on household level was 19%. Increasing herd size was positively associated with higher economic output. The interaction between ASF outbreaks and the herd size showed that ASF outbreaks were negatively associated with economic output at the second interview occasion and with one out of two economic impact variables at the third interview occasion. No significant associations between the social impact variables included in the study and ASF outbreaks could be established. Trade and consumption of sick and dead pigs were coping strategies used to minimize losses of capital and animal protein. The results indicate that causality of social and economic impact of ASF outbreaks in smallholder systems is complex. Pigs are mostly kept as passive investments rather than active working capital, complicating economic analyses and further disqualifying disease control arguments based only on standard economic models.

Simulating the epidemiological and economic effects of an African swine fever epidemic in industrialized swine populations.

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable infectious disease with a considerable impact on animal health and is currently one of the most important emerging diseases of domestic pigs. ASF was introduced into Georgia in 2007 and subsequently spread to the Russian Federation and several Eastern European countries. Consequently, there is a non-negligible risk of ASF spread towards Western Europe. Therefore it is important to develop tools to improve our understanding of the spread and control of ASF for contingency planning. A stochastic and dynamic spatial spread model (DTU-DADS) was adjusted to simulate the spread of ASF virus between domestic swine herds exemplified by the Danish swine population. ASF was simulated to spread via animal movement, low- or medium-risk contacts and local spread. Each epidemic was initiated in a randomly selected herd - either in a nucleus herd, a sow herd, a randomly selected herd or in multiple herds simultaneously. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on input parameters. Given the inputs and assumptions of the model, epidemics of ASF in Denmark are predicted to be small, affecting about 14 herds in the worst-case scenario. The duration of an epidemic is predicted to vary from 1 to 76days. Substantial economic damages are predicted, with median direct costs and export losses of €12 and €349 million, respectively, when epidemics were initiated in multiple herds. Each infectious herd resulted in 0 to 2 new infected herds varying from 0 to 5 new infected herds, depending on the index herd type.

Applying participatory approaches in the evaluation of surveillance systems: A pilot study on African swine fever surveillance in Corsica.

The implementation of regular and relevant evaluations of surveillance systems is critical in improving their effectiveness and their relevance whilst limiting their cost. The complex nature of these systems and the variable contexts in which they are implemented call for the development of flexible evaluation tools. Within this scope, participatory tools have been developed and implemented for the African swine fever (ASF) surveillance system in Corsica (France). The objectives of this pilot study were, firstly, to assess the applicability of participatory approaches within a developed environment involving various stakeholders and, secondly, to define and test methods developed to assess evaluation attributes. Two evaluation attributes were targeted: the acceptability of the surveillance system and its the non-monetary benefits. Individual semi-structured interviews and focus groups were implemented with representatives from every level of the system. Diagramming and scoring tools were used to assess the different elements that compose the definition of acceptability. A contingent valuation method, associated with proportional piling, was used to assess the non-monetary benefits, i.e., the value of sanitary information. Sixteen stakeholders were involved in the process, through 3 focus groups and 8 individual semi-structured interviews. Stakeholders were selected according to their role in the system and to their availability. Results highlighted a moderate acceptability of the system for farmers and hunters and a high acceptability for other representatives (e.g., private veterinarians, local laboratories). Out of the 5 farmers involved in assessing the non-monetary benefits, 3 were interested in sanitary information on ASF. The data collected via participatory approaches enable relevant recommendations to be made, based on the Corsican context, to improve the current surveillance system.

Cost implications of African swine fever in smallholder farrow-to-finish units: economic benefits of disease prevention through biosecurity.

African swine fever remains the greatest limitation to the development of the pig industry in Africa, and parts of Asia and Europe. It is especially important in West and Central African countries where the disease has become endemic. Biosecurity is the implementation of a set of measures that reduce the risk of infection through segregation, cleaning and disinfection. Using a 122-sow piggery unit, a financial model and costing were used to estimate the economic benefits of effective biosecurity against African swine fever. The outcomes suggest that pig production is a profitable venture that can generate a profit of approximately US$109,637.40 per annum and that an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) has the potential to cause losses of up to US$910,836.70 in a single year. The implementation of biosecurity and its effective monitoring can prevent losses owing to ASF and is calculated to give a benefit-cost ratio of 29. A full implementation of biosecurity will result in a 9.70% reduction in total annual profit, but is justified in view of the substantial costs incurred in the event of an ASF outbreak. Biosecurity implementation is robust and capable of withstanding changes in input costs including moderate feed price increases, higher management costs and marginal reductions in total outputs. It is concluded that biosecurity is a key to successful pig production in an endemic situation.

Analysis and evaluation of mortality losses of the 2001 African swine fever outbreak, Ibadan, Nigeria.

The mortality losses of pigs of various age groups affected by the 2001 African swine fever outbreak in Ibadan Nigeria were analyzed and evaluated. Thirty one thousand nine hundred and sixteen (31,916) pigs on three hundred and six (306) farms reported by the Pig Farmers Association of Nigeria and the State Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources were involved. Gross mortality was ninety one percent (91%), while age group mortality ranged from 75.9% (growers), 83.1% (weaners), 91.2% (finishers) and 99.8% (piglets); to 100.0% in gilts, sow and boars. Losses were estimated to worth nine hundred and forty one thousand, four hundred and ninety one dollars, sixty seven cents (US $941, 491.67). Highest financial loss was from sows (29.5% of total loss), followed by gilts (16.6%), finishers (15.2%), weaners (10.7%), boars (10.6%), growers (10.6%) and piglets (8.2%). Average mortality loss per farm of $3076.77 was of great financial and socioeconomic consequences for a developing country like Nigeria with a low Gross Domestic Product figures. In conclusion, the need to immediately revisit and take recommended actions on the 1998 Report of the FAO Consultancy Mission to Nigeria on Control and Eradication of an Outbreak of African swine fever in Western Nigeria is stressed.

African swine fever in Zambia: potential financial and production consequences for the commercial sector.

The first officially recorded outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Zambia was in Eastern province in 1965. The disease now covers almost the whole province and is endemic in the indigenous breeds. In 1989, an outbreak of ASF occurred on a commercial property in central Zambia for the first time and was eradicated by depopulation. In order to examine the justification of the drastic control measures and the continued ban on the export of pigs and their products, the impact of the outbreak on the affected property as well as the potential consequences on the commercial pig sector in the district was assessed in the present study. The affected property lost 421,238 Zambian Kwacha (ZK) (USf439,965) as a result of the outbreak and control measures. However, the cost to the district could have been at least ZK14,917,500 (US$1,415,323) if the measures had not been effected. Furthermore, not taking such measures would have increased the risk to the entire commercial pig sector along the line of rail in urban centers.