Methodological extensions of meta-analysis with excess relative risk estimates: application to risk of second malignant neoplasms among childhood cancer survivors treated with radiotherapy.

Although radiotherapy is recognized as an established risk factor for second malignant neoplasms (SMNs), the dose response of SMNs following radiotherapy has not been well characterized. In our previous meta-analysis of the risks of SMNs occurring among children who have received radiotherapy, the small number of eligible studies precluded a detailed evaluation. Therefore, to increase the number of eligible studies, we developed a method of calculating excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy estimates from studies for which the relative risk estimates for several dose categories were available. Comparing the calculated ERR with that described in several original papers validated the proposed method. This enabled us to increase the number of studies, which we used to conduct a meta-analysis. The overall ERR per Gy estimate of radiotherapy over 26 relevant studies was 0.60 (95%CI: 0.30-1.20), which is smaller than the corresponding estimate for atomic bomb survivors exposed to radiation as young children (1.7; 95% CI: 1.1-2.5). A significant decrease in ERR per Gy with increase in age at exposure (0.85 times per annual increase) was observed in the meta-regression. Heterogeneity was suggested by Cochran's Q statistic (P < 0.001), which may be partly accounted for by age at exposure.

Future population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki.

The Nagasaki University Atomic Bomb Survivor Database, which was established in 1978 for elucidating the long-term health effects of the atomic bombing, has registered since 1970 about 120,000 atomic bomb survivors with a history of residence in Nagasaki city. Since the number of atomic bomb survivors has steadily been decreasing, prediction of future population is important for planning future epidemiologic studies, and we tried to predict the population of atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki city from 2008 to 2030. In addition, we evaluated our estimated population comparing with the actual number from 2008 to 2011.

Radiation risk of individual multifactorial diseases in offspring of the atomic-bomb survivors: a clinical health study.

There is no convincing evidence regarding radiation-induced heritable risks of adult-onset multifactorial diseases in humans, although it is important from the standpoint of protection and management of populations exposed to radiation. The objective of the present study was to examine whether parental exposure to atomic-bomb (A-bomb) radiation led to an increased risk of common polygenic, multifactorial diseases-hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, angina pectoris, myocardial infarction or stroke-in the first-generation (F1) offspring of A-bomb survivors. A total of 11,951 F1 offspring of survivors in Hiroshima or Nagasaki, conceived after the bombing, underwent health examinations to assess disease prevalence. We found no evidence that paternal or maternal A-bomb radiation dose, or the sum of their doses, was associated with an increased risk of any multifactorial diseases in either male or female offspring. None of the 18 radiation dose-response slopes, adjusted for other risk factors for the diseases, was statistically significantly elevated. However, the study population is still in mid-life (mean age 48.6 years), and will express much of its multifactorial disease incidence in the future, so ongoing longitudinal follow-up will provide increasingly informative risk estimates regarding hereditary genetic effects for incidence of adult-onset multifactorial disease.

The risk of childhood leukaemia following exposure to ionising radiation--a review.

Since the early years of follow-up of the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, it has been apparent that childhood leukaemia has a particular sensitivity to induction by ionising radiation, the excess relative risk (ERR) being expressed as a temporal wave with time since exposure. This pattern has been generally confirmed by studies of children treated with radiotherapy. Case-control studies of childhood leukaemia and antenatal exposure to diagnostic x-rays, a recent large cohort study of leukaemia following CT examinations of young people, and a recent large case-control study of natural background γ-radiation and childhood leukaemia have found evidence of raised risks following low-level exposure. These findings indicate that an ERR/Sv for childhood leukaemia of ~50, which may be derived from risk models based upon the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, is broadly applicable to low dose or low dose-rate exposure circumstances.

Radiation and cancer risk in atomic-bomb survivors.

With the aim of accurately assessing the effects of radiation exposure in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation has, over several decades, conducted studies of the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort, comprising 93 000 atomic-bomb survivors and 27 000 controls. Solid cancer: the recent report on solid cancer incidence found that at age 70 years following exposure at age 30 years, solid cancer rates increase by about 35%  Gy(-1) for men and 58% Gy(-1) for women. Age-at-exposure is an important risk modifier. In the case of lung cancer, cigarette smoking has been found to be an important risk modifier. Radiation has similar effects on first-primary and second-primary cancer risks. Finally, radiation-associated increases in cancer rates appear to persist throughout life. Leukaemia: the recent report on leukaemia mortality suggests that radiation effects on leukaemia mortality persisted for more than 50 years. Moreover, significant dose-response for myelodysplastic syndrome was observed in Nagasaki LSS members even 40-60 years after radiation exposure. Future perspective: given the continuing solid cancer increase in the survivor population, the LSS will likely continue to provide important new information on radiation exposure and solid cancer risks for another 15-20 years, especially for those exposed at a young age.

Ionizing radiation and leukemia mortality among Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1950-2000.

This paper provides the first comprehensive report on mortality by type of leukemia among the Japanese atomic bomb survivors in the Life Span Study (LSS). Analyses include 310 deaths due to leukemia during the period 1950-2000 among 86,611 people in the LSS. Poisson regression methods were used to evaluate associations between estimated bone marrow dose and leukemia mortality. Attention was given to variation in the radiation dose-leukemia mortality association by time since exposure, age at exposure, city and sex. The excess relative rate per gray of acute myeloid leukemia was best described by a quadratic dose-response function that peaked approximately 10 years after exposure. Acute lymphatic leukemia and chronic myeloid leukemia mortality were best described by a linear dose-response function that did not vary with time since exposure. Adult T-cell leukemia was not associated with estimated bone marrow dose. Overall, 103 of the 310 observed leukemia deaths were estimated to be excess deaths due to radiation exposure. In the most recent decade of observation (1991-2000), the estimated attributable fraction of leukemia deaths among those survivors exposed to >0.005 Gy was 0.34, suggesting that the effect of the atomic bombings on leukemia mortality has persisted in this cohort for more than five decades.

Factors that elevate the internal radionuclide and chemical retention, dose and health risks to infants and children in a radiological-nuclear emergency.

The factors that influence the dose and risk to vulnerable population groups from exposure and internal uptake of chemicals are examined and, in particular, the radionuclides released in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive events. The paper seeks to identify the areas that would benefit from further research. The intake and body burdens of carbon and calcium were assessed as surrogates for contaminants that either act like or bind to hydrocarbons (e.g. tritium and (14)C) or bone-seeking radionuclides (e.g. (90)Sr and (239)Pu). The shortest turnover times for such materials in the whole body were evaluated for the newborn: 11 d and 0.5 y for carbon and calcium, respectively. However, their biokinetic behaviour is complicated by a particularly high percentage of the gut-absorbed dietary intake of carbon (approximately 16%) and calcium (approximately 100%) that is incorporated into the soft tissue and skeleton of the growing neonate. The International Commission on Radiological Protection dose coefficients (Sv Bq(-1)) were examined for 14 radionuclides, including 9 of concern because of their potential use in radiological dispersal devices. The dose coefficients for a 3-month-old are greater than those for adults (2-56 times more for ingestion and 2-12 times for inhalation). The age-dependent dose and exposure assessment of contaminant intakes would improve by accounting for gender and growth where it is currently neglected. Health risk is evaluated as the product of the exposure and hazard factors, the latter being about 10-fold greater in infants than in adults. The exposure factor is also approximately 10-fold higher for ingestion by infants than by adults, and unity for inhalation varying with the contaminant. Qualitative and quantitative physiological and epidemiological evidence supports infants being more vulnerable to cancer and neurological deficit than older children.

Positive associations between ionizing radiation and lymphoma mortality among men.

The authors investigated the relation between ionizing radiation and lymphoma mortality in 2 cohorts: 1) 20,940 men in the Life Span Study, a study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors who were aged 15-64 years at the time of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and 2) 15,264 male nuclear weapons workers who were hired at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina between 1950 and 1986. Radiation dose-mortality trends were evaluated for all malignant lymphomas and for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Positive associations between lymphoma mortality and radiation dose under a 5-year lag assumption were observed in both cohorts (excess relative rates per sievert were 0.79 (90% confidence interval: 0.10, 1.88) and 6.99 (90% confidence interval: 0.96, 18.39), respectively). Exclusion of deaths due to Hodgkin's disease led to small changes in the estimates of association. In each cohort, evidence of a dose-response association was primarily observed more than 35 years after irradiation. These findings suggest a protracted induction and latency period for radiation-induced lymphoma mortality.

Leukaemia following childhood radiation exposure in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in medically exposed groups.

Incidence and mortality risks of radiation-associated leukaemia are surveyed in the Japanese atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors exposed in early childhood and in utero. Leukaemia incidence and mortality risks are also surveyed in 16 other studies of persons who received appreciable doses of ionizing radiation in the course of treatment in childhood and for whom there is adequate dosimetry and cancer incidence or mortality follow-up. Relative risks tend to be lower in the medical series than in the Japanese A-bomb survivors. The relative risks in the medical studies tend to diminish with increasing average therapy dose. After taking account of cell sterilisation and dose fractionation, the apparent differences between the relative risks for leukaemia in the Japanese A-bomb survivors and in the medical series largely disappear. This suggests that cell sterilisation largely accounts for the discrepancy between the relative risks in the Japanese data and the medical studies. Excess absolute risk has also been assessed in four studies, and there is found to be more variability in this measure than in excess relative risk. In particular, there is a substantial difference between the absolute risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivor data and those in three other (European) populations. In summary, the relative risks of leukaemia in studies of persons exposed to appreciable doses of ionizing radiation in the course of treatment for a variety of malignant and non-malignant conditions in childhood are generally less than those in the Japanese A-bomb survivor data. The effects of cell sterilisation can largely explain the discrepancy between the Japanese and the medical series.

Cardiovascular disease risk among atomic bomb survivors exposed in utero, 1978-2003.

Given the well-documented association of in utero radiation exposure with childhood cancer and developmental impairments, the possibility of effects on adult onset diseases is an important issue. The objectives of the present study were to examine the effects of atomic bomb radiation dose on the incidence of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction and stroke) among survivors exposed in utero and to compare their risk estimates with those of survivors exposed in childhood (<10 years old) at the time of the bombing. A total of 506 participants exposed in utero and 1,053 participants exposed in childhood were followed during 1978-2003 with biennial clinical examinations. There were no significant radiation dose effects for any diseases in the entire in utero-exposed cohort or in trimester-of-exposure subgroups, though there was a suggestion of an increased risk when fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease cases were combined. Positive radiation dose effects were found for hypertension and cardiovascular disease in the childhood-exposure cohort, but there were no statistically significant differences in the relative risks when we compared the two cohorts. Since the in utero cohort was under age 60 at the latest examination, continued follow-up is needed to document cardiovascular disease risk more fully.

Systolic blood pressure and systolic hypertension in adolescence of atomic bomb survivors exposed in utero.

Annual medical examinations were conducted during adolescence for the in utero clinical study sample subjects exposed prenatally to the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Systolic blood pressure and several anthropometric measurements were recorded during these examinations. For 1014 persons exposed in utero, two types of longitudinal analyses were performed, for a total of 7029 observations (6.93 observations per subject) of systolic blood pressure (continuous data) and systolic hypertension (binary data) for persons aged 9 to 19 years. Body mass index (BMI) and/or body weight were considered in the analyses as potential confounders. For the measurements of systolic blood pressure, the common dose effect was 2.09 mmHg per Gy and was significant (P = 0.017). The dose by trimester interaction was suggestive (P = 0.060). A significant radiation dose effect was found in the second trimester (P = 0.001), with an estimated 4.17 mmHg per Gy, but in the first and third trimesters, radiation dose effects were not significant (P > 0.50). For prevalence of systolic hypertension, the radiation dose effect was significant (P = 0.009); the odds ratio at 1 Gy was 2.23 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.23, 4.04], and the dose by trimester interaction was not significant (P = 0.778). The dose response of systolic hypertension had no dose threshold, with a threshold point estimate of 0 Gy (95% CI: <0.0, 1.1 Gy). The dose response for systolic blood pressure was most pronounced in the second trimester, the most active organogenesis period for the organs relevant to blood pressure.

Sex ratio in the offspring of parents with chronic radiation exposure from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan.

The former Soviet Union conducted a nuclear test program in the Semipalatinsk region of northeastern Kazakhstan in 1949-1989. The population in the vicinity of the test site was chronically exposed to radiation fallout, especially from above-ground tests during 1949-1956. Male:female sex ratio has been proposed as a measure of reproductive health, with some reports suggesting an alteration in the sex ratio of offspring of parents exposed to radiation. We investigated the impact of radiation exposure and other factors on the sex ratio in the population inhabiting the exposed region. A total of 11,464 singleton births of 3,992 mothers exposed to radiation during 1949-1956 were analyzed. The overall sex ratio was 1.07, similar to the current sex ratio in Kazakhstan (1.06). The sex ratio increased from 1.04 where mothers received <20.0 cSv to 1.12 where mothers received > or =60.0 cSv. However, the linear trend across exposures was not significant (P = 0.42). No consistent association was found between the sex ratio and the time since parental radiation exposure, parental age at exposure, or year of birth. Sex ratio was significantly associated with maternal age, birth order and possibly ethnicity but not with paternal age, parental educational level or season. In conclusion, no significant association was found between radiation exposure level and sex ratio, but some previously suggested demographic factors were positively associated with sex ratio.

Proliferation of nuclear weapons: opportunities for control and abolition.

Nuclear weapons pose a particularly destructive threat. Prevention of the proliferation and use of nuclear weapons is urgently important to public health. "Horizontal" proliferation refers to nation-states or nonstate entities that do not have, but are acquiring, nuclear weapons or developing the capability and materials for producing them. "Vertical" proliferation refers to nation-states that do possess nuclear weapons and are increasing their stockpiles of these weapons, improving the technical sophistication or reliability of their weapons, or developing new weapons. Because nation-states or other entities that wish to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons need methods for delivering those weapons, proliferation of delivery mechanisms must also be prevented. Controlling proliferation--and ultimately abolishing nuclear weapons--involves national governments, intergovernmental organizations, nongovernmental and professional organizations, and society at large.

Are cancer risks associated with exposures to ionising radiation from internal emitters greater than those in the Japanese A-bomb survivors?

After ingestion or inhalation of radionuclides, internal organs of the human body will be exposed to ionising radiation. Current risk estimates of radiation-associated cancer from internal emitters are largely based on extrapolation of risk from high-dose externally exposed groups. Concerns have been expressed that extrapolated risk estimates from internal emitters are greatly underestimated, by factors of ten or more, thus implying a severe underestimation of the true risks. Therefore, data on cancer mortality and incidence in a number of groups who received exposure predominantly from internal emitters are examined and excess relative risks per Sv are compared with comparable (age at exposure, time since exposure, gender) matched subsets of the Japanese atomic bomb survivor cohort. Risks are examined separately for low LET and high LET internal emitters. There are eight studies informative for the effects of internal low LET radiation exposure and 12 studies informative for the effects of internal high LET radiation. For 11 of the 20 cancer endpoints (subgroups of particular study cohorts) examined in the low LET internal emitter studies, the best estimate of the excess relative risk is greater than the corresponding estimate in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and for the other nine it is less. For four of these 20 studies, the relative risk is significantly (2-sided P < 0.05) different from that in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, in three cases greater than the atomic bomb survivor relative risk and in one case less. Considering only those six low LET studies/endpoints with 100 or more deaths or cases, for four out of six studies/endpoints the internal emitter risk is greater than that in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. For seven of the 24 cancer endpoints examined in the high LET internal emitter studies the best estimate of the ERR in the internal emitter study is greater than the corresponding estimate in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and for the other 17 it is less. For six studies, the relative risk is significantly (2-sided P < 0.05) different from that in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, in one case greater than the atomic bomb survivor relative risk and in five cases less. Considering only those eight high LET studies/endpoints with 100 or more deaths or cases, for five out of eight studies/endpoints the internal emitter risk is greater than that in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. These results suggest that excess relative risks in the internal emitter studies do not appreciably differ from those in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. However, there are substantial uncertainties in estimates of risks in the internal emitter studies, particularly in relation to lung cancer associated with radon daughter (alpha particle) exposure, so a measure of caution should be exercised in these conclusions.

Selection bias in cancer risk estimation from A-bomb survivors.

We consider the possible bias in cancer risk estimation from A-bomb survivors due to selection of the cohort by survival. The paper considers both relevant information from the data and basic theoretical issues involved. The most direct information from the data comes from making various restrictions on the dose-distance range, partly to reduce differential selection and partly just to reduce the magnitude of the selection. These analyses suggest that there are no serious biases, but they are not conclusive. Theoretical considerations include laying out more explicitly than usual just how biases could result from the selection. This involves heterogeneities in the ability to survive acute effects, in baseline and radiogenic cancer rates, and most importantly the correlation between survival-related and cancer-related heterogeneities. Following on this, idealized modeling is used to quantify the extent of possible bias in terms of the assumed values of the magnitude of these heterogeneities and their correlation. It is indicated that these values would need to be very large to introduce substantial bias. Based on all these considerations, it seems unlikely that the bias in cancer risk estimation could be large in relation to other uncertainties in generalizing from what is seen among A-bomb survivors; in particular, indications are that the bias in relative risks is unlikely to be as large as 0.05 to 0.07. For solid cancer this would correspond to bias in the excess relative risk at 1 Sv of at most about 15-20%.