Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

This study analysed spatio-temporal fluctuations in rainfall to assess drought and wet spells in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Temporal changes in rainfall were assessed using a linear regression method, while aridity conditions at each meteorological station were measured using the United Nations Environment Programme climate aridity index. In this study, drought and wet spell patterns were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The Spearman's Rho (SR) test was applied to find trends in the temporal 1-month and 12-month SPEI data. Balakot, Dir, Kakul, Kalam, Malam Jabba, Parachinar, Patan and Saidu were humid whereas Cherat and Timergara were sub-humid meteorological stations while Bannu, Chitral, Drosh and Peshawar were semi-arid and D.I. Khan was found to be the only arid meteorological station in the study area. The regression results revealed that the amount of rainfall is decreasing at Balakot, Kakul and Dir, while in the southern part of the province the amount of rainfall is increasing, such as in Parachinar and Cherat. The SPEI results revealed distinct drought spells in 1971-1974, 1984-1989, 1998-2004 and recently in 2017-2018, in almost all met-stations results. The SR results indicated a significant wet trend at met-station Parachinar, located in the west, while a significant drying trend has been noted at Balakot in the north-eastern part of the study area. Detailed knowledge about rainfall variability can provide a foundation for the planning and use of water resources.

A new CUSUM control chart under uncertainty with applications in petroleum and meteorology.

In these last few decades, control charts have received a growing interest because of the important role they play by improving the quality of the products and services in industrial and non-industrial environments. Most of the existing control charts are based on the assumption of certainty and accuracy. However, in real-life applications, such as weather forecasting and stock prices, operators are not always certain about the accuracy of an observed data. To efficiently monitor such processes, this paper proposes a new cumulative sum (CUSUM) [Formula: see text] chart under the assumption of uncertainty using the neutrosophic statistic (NS). The performance of the new chart is investigated in terms of the neutrosophic run length properties using the Monte Carlo simulations approach. The efficiency of the proposed neutrosophic CUSUM (NCUSUM) [Formula: see text] chart is also compared to the one of the classical CUSUM [Formula: see text] chart. It is observed that the NCUSUM [Formula: see text] chart has very interesting properties compared to the classical CUSUM [Formula: see text] chart. The application and implementation of the NCUSUM [Formula: see text] chart are provided using simulated, petroleum and meteorological data.

Key Points in Air Pollution Meteorology.

Although emissions have a direct impact on air pollution, meteorological processes may influence inmission concentration, with the only way to control air pollution being through the rates emitted. This paper presents the close relationship between air pollution and meteorology following the scales of atmospheric motion. In macroscale, this review focuses on the synoptic pattern, since certain weather types are related to pollution episodes, with the determination of these weather types being the key point of these studies. The contrasting contribution of cold fronts is also presented, whilst mathematical models are seen to increase the analysis possibilities of pollution transport. In mesoscale, land-sea and mountain-valley breezes may reinforce certain pollution episodes, and recirculation processes are sometimes favoured by orographic features. The urban heat island is also considered, since the formation of mesovortices determines the entry of pollutants into the city. At the microscale, the influence of the boundary layer height and its evolution are evaluated; in particular, the contribution of the low-level jet to pollutant transport and dispersion. Local meteorological variables have a major influence on calculations with the Gaussian plume model, whilst some eddies are features exclusive to urban environments. Finally, the impact of air pollution on meteorology is briefly commented on.

Meta-analysis of urbanization impact on rainfall modification.

Even though it is known that urbanization affects rainfall, studies vary regarding the magnitude and location of rainfall change. To develop a comprehensive understanding of rainfall modification due to urbanization, a systematic meta-analysis is undertaken. The initial search identified over 2000 papers of which 489 were carefully analyzed. From these papers, 85 studies from 48 papers could be used in a quantitative meta-analysis assessment. Results were analyzed for case studies versus climatological assessments, observational versus modeling studies and for day versus night. Results highlight that urbanization modifies rainfall, such that mean precipitation is enhanced by 18% downwind of the city, 16% over the city, 2% on the left and 4% on the right with respect to the storm direction. The rainfall enhancement occurred approximately 20-50 km from the city center. Study results help develop a more complete picture of the role of urban processes in rainfall modification and highlight that rainfall increases not only downwind of the city but also over the city. These findings have implications for urban flooding as well as hydroclimatological studies. This meta-analysis highlights the need for standardizing how the results are presented in future studies to aid the generalization of findings.

Comparison of drought indices in the analysis of spatial and temporal changes of climatic drought events in a basin.

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on two different methods were calculated using monthly meteorological data from the Yangtze River Basin. According to the completeness and length of dataset, the monthly data of 35 meteorological stations from 1959 to 2017 were applied in this study. The results revealed that the SPEI calculated by the Penman-Monteith (PM) method performed better than the SPI and the SPEI based on the Thornthwaite (TH) method. Since SPEI_PM considered more meteorological factors and detailed physical processes, it obtained the most reasonable and accurate results of drought trends. Using the variations of SPEI_PM to analyze the decadal changes of drought characteristics in the basin, it could be found that 1980-1989 and 1990-1999 were the most humid periods in the basin, while the drought events became more frequent and severe in the recent decade. The spatial distributions of drought trend, duration and frequency indicated that the stations located in the midstream of the river were most prone to drought events, followed by the upper reaches. Our results provided more information for the regions where severe droughts occurred frequently and last longer, and more attention should be paid to these regions in future catchment management.

Evaluating meteorological data from weather stations, and from satellites and global models for a multi-site epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal and time series analyses are needed to characterize the associations between hydrometeorological parameters and health outcomes. Earth Observation (EO) climate data products derived from satellites and global model-based reanalysis have the potential to be used as surrogates in situations and locations where weather-station based observations are inadequate or incomplete. However, these products often lack direct evaluation at specific sites of epidemiological interest. METHODS: Standard evaluation metrics of correlation, agreement, bias and error were applied to a set of ten hydrometeorological variables extracted from two quasi-global, commonly used climate data products - the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) - to evaluate their performance relative to weather-station derived estimates at the specific geographic locations of the eight sites in a multi-site cohort study. These metrics were calculated for both daily estimates and 7-day averages and for a rotavirus-peak-season subset. Then the variables from the two sources were each used as predictors in longitudinal regression models to test their association with rotavirus infection in the cohort after adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: The availability and completeness of station-based validation data varied depending on the variable and study site. The performance of the two gridded climate models varied considerably within the same location and for the same variable across locations, according to different evaluation criteria and for the peak-season compared to the full dataset in ways that showed no obvious pattern. They also differed in the statistical significance of their association with the rotavirus outcome. For some variables, the station-based records showed a strong association while the EO-derived estimates showed none, while for others, the opposite was true. CONCLUSION: Researchers wishing to utilize publicly available climate data - whether EO-derived or station based - are advised to recognize their specific limitations both in the analysis and the interpretation of the results. Epidemiologists engaged in prospective research into environmentally driven diseases should install their own weather monitoring stations at their study sites whenever possible, in order to circumvent the constraints of choosing between distant or incomplete station data or unverified EO estimates.

Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science.

I propose a distinct type of robustness, which I suggest can support a confirmatory role in scientific reasoning, contrary to the usual philosophical claims. In model robustness, repeated production of the empirically successful model prediction or retrodiction against a background of independently-supported and varying model constructions, within a group of models containing a shared causal factor, may suggest how confident we can be in the causal factor and predictions/retrodictions, especially once supported by a variety of evidence framework. I present climate models of greenhouse gas global warming of the 20th Century as an example, and emphasize climate scientists' discussions of robust models and causal aspects. The account is intended as applicable to a broad array of sciences that use complex modeling techniques.

Accountability and values in radically collaborative research.

This paper discusses a crisis of accountability that arises when scientific collaborations are massively epistemically distributed. We argue that social models of epistemic collaboration, which are social analogs to what Patrick Suppes called a "model of the experiment," must play a role in creating accountability in these contexts. We also argue that these social models must accommodate the fact that the various agents in a collaborative project often have ineliminable, messy, and conflicting interests and values; any story about accountability in a massively distributed collaboration must therefore involve models of such interests and values and their methodological and epistemic effects.

A proposal for a worldwide definition of health resort medicine, balneology, medical hydrology and climatology.

Health Resort Medicine, Balneology, Medical Hydrology and Climatology are not fully recognised as independent medical specialties at a global international level. Analysing the reasons, we can identify both external (from outside the field) and internal (from inside the field) factors. External arguments include, e.g. the lack of scientific evidence, the fact that Balneotherapy and Climatotherapy is not used in all countries, and the fact that Health Resort Medicine, Balneology, Medical Hydrology and Climatology focus only on single methods and do not have a comprehensive concept. Implicit barriers are the lack of international accepted terms in the field, the restriction of being allowed to practice the activities only in specific settings, and the trend to use Balneotherapy mainly for wellness concepts. Especially the implicit barriers should be subject to intense discussions among scientists and specialists. This paper suggests one option to tackle the problem of implicit barriers by making a proposal for a structure and description of the medical field, and to provide some commonly acceptable descriptions of content and terminology. The medical area can be defined as "medicine in health resorts" (or "health resort medicine"). Health resort medicine includes "all medical activities originated and derived in health resorts based on scientific evidence aiming at health promotion, prevention, therapy and rehabilitation". Core elements of health resort interventions in health resorts are balneotherapy, hydrotherapy, and climatotherapy. Health resort medicine can be used for health promotion, prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation. The use of natural mineral waters, gases and peloids in many countries is called balneotherapy, but other (equivalent) terms exist. Substances used for balneotherapy are medical mineral waters, medical peloids, and natural gases (bathing, drinking, inhalation, etc.). The use of plain water (tap water) for therapy is called hydrotherapy, and the use of climatic factors for therapy is called climatotherapy. Reflecting the effects of health resort medicine, it is important to take other environmental factors into account. These can be classified within the framework of the ICF (International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health). Examples include receiving health care by specialised doctors, being well educated (ICF-domain: e355), having an environment supporting social contacts (family, peer groups) (cf. ICF-domains: d740, d760), facilities for recreation, cultural activities, leisure and sports (cf. ICF-domain: d920), access to a health-promoting atmosphere and an environment close to nature (cf. ICF-domain: e210). The scientific field dealing with health resort medicine is called health resort sciences. It includes the medical sciences, psychology, social sciences, technical sciences, chemistry, physics, geography, jurisprudence, etc. Finally, this paper proposes a systematic international discussion of descriptions in the field of Health Resort Medicine, Balneology, Medical Hydrology and Climatology, and discusses short descriptive terms with the goal of achieving internationally accepted distinct terms. This task should be done via a structured consensus process and is of major importance for the publication of scientific results as well as for systematic reviews and meta-analyses.