Development and validation of a Bayesian survival model for inclusion body myositis.

BACKGROUND: Associations between disease characteristics and payer-relevant outcomes can be difficult to establish for rare and progressive chronic diseases with sparse available data. We developed an exploratory bridging model to predict premature mortality from disease characteristics, and using inclusion body myositis (IBM) as a representative case study. METHODS: Candidate variables that may be potentially associated with premature mortality were identified by disease experts and from the IBM literature. Interdependency between candidate variables in IBM patients were assessed using existing patient-level data. A Bayesian survival model for the IBM population was developed with identified variables as predictors for premature mortality in the model. For model selection and external validation, model predictions were compared to published mortality data in IBM patient cohorts. After validation, the final model was used to simulate the increased risk of premature death in IBM patients. Baseline survival was based on age- and gender-specific survival curves for the general population in Western countries as reported by the World Health Organisation. RESULTS: Presence of dysphagia, aspiration pneumonia, falls, being wheelchair-bound and 6-min walking distance (6MWD in meters) were identified as candidate variables to be used as predictors for premature mortality based on inputs received from disease experts and literature. There was limited correlation between these functional performance measures, which were therefore treated as independent variables in the model. Based on the Bayesian survival model, among all candidate variables, presence of dysphagia and decrease in 6MWD [m] were associated with poorer survival with contributing hazard ratios (HR) 1.61 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.84-3.50) and 2.48 (95% CrI: 1.27-5.00) respectively. Excess mortality simulated in an IBM cohort vs. an age- and gender matched general-population cohort was 4.03 (95% prediction interval 1.37-10.61). CONCLUSIONS: For IBM patients, results suggest an increased risk of premature death compared with the general population of the same age and gender. In the absence of hard data, bridging modelling generated survival predictions by combining relevant information. The methodological principle would be applicable to the analysis of associations between disease characteristics and payer-relevant outcomes in progressive chronic and rare diseases. Studies with lifetime follow-up would be needed to confirm the modelling results.

Cytokine Profiling of Serum Allows Monitoring of Disease Progression in Inclusion Body Myositis.

BACKGROUND: Inclusion body myositis is a late onset inflammatory myopathy lacking reliable serum biomarkers for diagnosis and for disease progression. OBJECTIVE: To identify diagnostic and predictive biomarkers, cytokine profiling is used to assess the potential of cytokines to discriminate between cases and controls and to assess whether treatment with methotrexate can influence biomarkers associated with disease progression. METHODS: The diagnostic and follow-up potential of 48 cytokines was tested using Bioplex-assay and ELISA in sera of healthy individuals, IBM patients and patients with other neuromuscular disorders. RESULTS: Ten cytokines (TRAIL, IL-8, MIF, MCP-1, LIF, IP-10, IFN-α2, MIG, bNGF and IL-3) were identified to be good to excellent markers to discern IBM patients from healthy controls. Three cytokines (IP-10, Eotaxin and SDF1A) changed significantly upon methotrexate treatment as compared with the natural clinical course. Muscle strength loss was associated with changes in IL-8 and SDF1A levels. IFN-γ levels were only associated with survival of IBM patients before correction for multiple comparisons. DISCUSSION: Cytokine profiling can discriminate IBM patients from healthy controls and other neuromuscular disorders. Immunosuppression with methotrexate affects cytokine levels in IBM. IL-8 and SDF1A could serve as biomarkers for disease progression.

Mortality and Causes of Death in Patients with Sporadic Inclusion Body Myositis: Survey Study Based on the Clinical Experience of Specialists in Australia, Europe and the USA.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on mortality and causes of death (CoDs) in patients with sporadic inclusion body myositis (sIBM), a rare, progressive, degenerative, inflammatory myopathy that typically affects those aged over 50 years. OBJECTIVE: Based on patient records and expertise of clinical specialists, this study used questionnaires to evaluate physicians' views on clinical characteristics of sIBM that may impact on premature mortality and CoDs in these patients. METHODS: Thirteen physicians from seven countries completed two questionnaires online between December 20, 2012 and January 15, 2013. Responses to the first questionnaire were collated and presented in the second questionnaire to seek elaboration and identify consensus. RESULTS: All 13 physicians completed both questionnaires, providing responses based on 585 living and 149 deceased patients under their care. Patients were reported to have experienced dysphagia (60.2%) and injurious falls (44.3%) during their disease. Over half of physicians reported that a subset of their patients with sIBM had a shortened lifespan (8/13), and agreed that bulbar dysfunction/dysphagia/oropharyngeal involvement (12/13), early-onset disease (8/13), severe symptoms (8/13), and falls (7/13) impacted lifespan. Factors related to sIBM were reported as CoDs in 40% of deceased patients. Oropharyngeal muscle dysfunction was ranked as the leading feature of sIBM that could contribute to death. The risk of premature mortality was higher than the age-matched comparison population. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of data from traditional sources, this study suggests that features of sIBM may contribute to premature mortality and may be used to inform future studies.

Polymorphism in the TOMM40 gene modifies the risk of developing sporadic inclusion body myositis and the age of onset of symptoms.

A polyT repeat in an intronic polymorphism (rs10524523) in the TOMM40 gene, which encodes an outer mitochondrial membrane translocase involved in the transport of amyloid-ß and other proteins into mitochondria, has been implicated in Alzheimer's disease and APOE-TOMM40 genotypes have been shown to modify disease risk and age at onset of symptoms. Because of the similarities between Alzheimer's disease and sporadic inclusion body myositis (s-IBM), and the importance of amyloid-ß and mitochondrial changes in s-IBM, we investigated whether variation in poly-T repeat lengths in rs10524523 also influence susceptibility and age at onset in a cohort of 90 Caucasian s-IBM patients (55 males; age 69.1 ± 9.6). In carriers of APOE ε3/ε3 or ε3/ε4, genotypes with a very long (VL) poly-T repeat were under-represented in s-IBM compared to controls and were associated with a later age at symptom onset, suggesting that these genotypes may be protective. Our study is the first to suggest that polymorphisms in genes controlling mitochondrial function can influence susceptibility to s-IBM and have disease modifying effects. However, further studies in other s-IBM populations are needed to confirm these findings, as well as expression studies of different TOMM40 alleles in muscle tissue.

Genotype-phenotype studies of VCP-associated inclusion body myopathy with Paget disease of bone and/or frontotemporal dementia.

Valosin containing protein (VCP) disease associated with inclusion body myopathy, Paget disease of the bone and frontotemporal dementia is a progressive autosomal dominant disorder caused by mutations in Valosin containing protein gene. To establish genotype-phenotype correlations we analyzed clinical and biochemical markers from a database of 190 members in 27 families harboring 10 missense mutations. Individuals were grouped into three categories: symptomatic, presymptomatic carriers and noncarriers. The symptomatic families were further divided into ten groups based on their VCP mutations. There was marked intra and inter-familial variation; and significant genotype-phenotype correlations were difficult to establish because of small numbers. Nevertheless when comparing the two most common mutations, R155C mutation was found to be more severe, with an earlier onset of myopathy and Paget (p = 0.03). Survival analysis of all subjects revealed an average life span after diagnosis of myopathy and Paget of 18 and 19 years respectively, and after dementia only 6 years. R155C had a reduced survival compared to the R155H mutation (p = 0.03).We identified amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) was diagnosed in 13 individuals (8.9%) and Parkinson's disease in five individuals (3%); however, there was no genotypic correlation. This study represents the largest dataset of patients with VCP disease and expands our understanding of the natural history and provides genotype-phenotype correlations in this unique disease.

Sporadic inclusion body myositis: HLA-DRB1 allele interactions influence disease risk and clinical phenotype.

Susceptibility to sIBM is strongly associated with the HLA-DRB1*03 allele and the 8.1 MHC ancestral haplotype (HLA-A1, B8, DRB1*03) but little is known about the effects of allelic interactions at the DRB1 locus or disease-modifying effects of HLA alleles. HLA-A, B and DRB1 genotyping was performed in 80 Australian sIBM cases and the frequencies of different alleles and allele combinations were compared with those in a group of 190 healthy controls. Genotype-phenotype correlations were also investigated. Amongst carriers of the HLA-DRB1*03 allele, DRB1*03/*01 heterozygotes were over-represented in the sIBM group (p<0.003) while. DRB1*03/*04 heterozygotes were under-represented (p<0.008). The mean age-at-onset (AAO) was 6.5 years earlier in DRB1*03/*01 heterozygotes who also had more severe quadriceps muscle weakness than the rest of the cohort. The findings indicate that interactions between the HLA-DRB1*03 allele and other alleles at the DRB1 locus can influence disease susceptibility and the clinical phenotype in sIBM.