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1.
J Safety Res ; 89: 224-233, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38858046

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: In this study, we use the media-based database of Beterem-Safe Kids Israel, to provide a 15-year review of unintentional fatal childhood drowning in Israel, between 2008 and 2022. METHOD: It total, we identified 257 cases of child mortality due to drowning during this period. RESULTS: Our results demonstrate a gradual rise in childhood mortality due to drowning, from 72 cases in 2008-2012, to 85 cases in 2013-2017, and to 100 cases in 2018-2022. Especially worth noting is the increase in childhood drowning in domestic swimming pools. We point to a link between low socioeconomic status and cases of drowning, showing that the risk of drowning extends beyond a mere matter of caregiver inattention. We recommend a series of regulatory and legislative steps to reduce fatal childhood drowning, including fencing built around domestic swimming pools, extending lifeguard activity hours, adding declared beaches, forming programs of safe behavior in water environments for adolescents, and establishing swimming lessons during the 2nd grade, for all populations. We further recommend that a special focus will be put in municipalities situated at the bottom of the socioeconomic index.


Assuntos
Afogamento , Humanos , Afogamento/prevenção & controle , Afogamento/mortalidade , Israel/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Masculino , Lactente , Adolescente , Piscinas , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências
2.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 13480, 2024 06 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38866837

RESUMO

The long-term trends in maternal and child health (MCH) in China and the national-level factors that may be associated with these changes have been poorly explored. This study aimed to assess trends in MCH indicators nationally and separately in urban and rural areas and the impact of public policies over a 30‒year period. An ecological study was conducted using data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), under-five mortality rate (U5MR), and maternal mortality ratio (MMR) nationally and separately in urban and rural areas in China from 1991 to 2020. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and mortality differences between urban and rural areas. From 1991 to 2020, maternal and child mortalities in China gradually declined (national AAPC [95% CI]: NMRs - 7.7% [- 8.6%, - 6.8%], IMRs - 7.5% [- 8.4%, - 6.6%], U5MRs - 7.5% [- 8.5%, - 6.5%], MMRs - 5.0% [- 5.7%, - 4.4%]). However, the rate of decline nationally in child mortality slowed after 2005, and in maternal mortality after 2013. For all indicators, the decline in mortality was greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The AAPCs in rate differences between rural and urban areas were - 8.5% for NMRs, - 8.6% for IMRs, - 7.7% for U5MRs, and - 9.6% for MMRs. The AAPCs in rate ratios (rural vs. urban) were - 1.2 for NMRs, - 2.1 for IMRs, - 1.7 for U5MRs, and - 1.9 for MMRs. After 2010, urban‒rural disparity in MMR did not diminish and in NMR, IMR, and U5MR, it gradually narrowed but persisted. MCH indicators have declined at the national level as well as separately in urban and rural areas but may have reached a plateau. Urban‒rural disparities in MCH indicators have narrowed but still exist. Regular analyses of temporal trends in MCH are necessary to assess the effectiveness of measures for timely adjustments.


Assuntos
Saúde da Criança , Mortalidade da Criança , Mortalidade Infantil , Saúde Materna , Mortalidade Materna , População Rural , População Urbana , Humanos , China/epidemiologia , Saúde da Criança/tendências , Feminino , Lactente , Saúde Materna/tendências , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Pré-Escolar , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Mortalidade Materna/tendências , Criança , Recém-Nascido , Masculino
3.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 10: e53860, 2024 Jun 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38829691

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: As one of the leading causes of child mortality, deaths due to congenital anomalies (CAs) have been a prominent obstacle to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.2. OBJECTIVE: We conducted this study to understand the death burden and trend of under-5 CA mortality (CAMR) in Zhejiang, one of the provinces with the best medical services and public health foundations in Eastern China. METHODS: We used data retrieved from the under-5 mortality surveillance system in Zhejiang from 2012 to 2021. CAMR by sex, residence, and age group for each year was calculated and standardized according to 2020 National Population Census sex- and residence-specific live birth data in China. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the annual average change rate (AACR) of CAMR and to obtain the rate ratio between subgroups after adjusting for sex, residence, and age group when appropriate. RESULTS: From 2012 to 2021, a total of 1753 children died from CAs, and the standardized CAMR declined from 121.2 to 62.6 per 100,000 live births with an AACR of -9% (95% CI -10.7% to -7.2%; P<.001). The declining trend was also observed in female and male children, urban and rural children, and neonates and older infants, and the AACRs were -9.7%, -8.5%, -8.5%, -9.2%, -12%, and -6.3%, respectively (all P<.001). However, no significant reduction was observed in children aged 1-4 years (P=.22). Generally, the CAMR rate ratios for male versus female children, rural versus urban children, older infants versus neonates, and older children versus neonates were 1.18 (95% CI 1.08-1.30; P<.001), 1.20 (95% CI 1.08-1.32; P=.001), 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.73; P<.001), and 0.20 (95% CI 0.17-0.24; P<.001), respectively. Among all broad CA groups, circulatory system malformations, mainly deaths caused by congenital heart diseases, accounted for 49.4% (866/1753) of deaths and ranked first across all years, although it declined yearly with an AACR of -9.8% (P<.001). Deaths due to chromosomal abnormalities tended to grow in recent years, although the AACR was not significant (P=.90). CONCLUSIONS: CAMR reduced annually, with cardiovascular malformations ranking first across all years in Zhejiang, China. Future research and practices should focus more on the prevention, early detection, long-term management of CAs and comprehensive support for families with children with CAs to improve their survival chances.


Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Anormalidades Congênitas , Humanos , China/epidemiologia , Masculino , Anormalidades Congênitas/mortalidade , Anormalidades Congênitas/epidemiologia , Feminino , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Recém-Nascido , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Vigilância da População/métodos , Análise de Dados
5.
Cien Saude Colet ; 29(5): e08692023, 2024 May.
Artigo em Português, Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38747770

RESUMO

The study aimed to detect high-risk areas for deaths of children and adolescents 5 to 14 years of age in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, from 2009 to 2020. This was an exploratory ecological study with municipalities as the units of analysis. Considering mortality data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and demographic data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the study used multivariate statistics to identify space-time clusters of excess mortality risk in this age group. From 5 to 9 years of age, two clusters with high mortality risk were detected; the most likely located in the state's southern mesoregion (RR: 1.6; LRT: 8,53). Among the 5 clusters detected in the 10-14-year age group, the main cluster was in the state's northern mesoregion (RR: 2,26; LRT: 7,84). A reduction in mortality rates was observed in the younger age group and an increase in these rates in the older group. The identification of these clusters, whose analysis merits replication in other parts of Brazil, is the initial stage in the investigation of possible factors associated with morbidity and mortality in this group, still insufficiently explored, and for planning adequate interventions.


O objetivo deste estudo é detectar as áreas de maior risco para óbitos de crianças e adolescentes de 5 a 14 anos no estado de Mato Grosso entre os anos de 2009 e 2020. Estudo ecológico, tipo exploratório, cuja unidade de análise foram os municípios. Considerando dados de mortalidade do SIM e os demográficos do IBGE, o estudo utilizou a estatística multivariada para a identificação dos clusters espaço-temporais de sobrerrisco de mortalidade nesta faixa etária. Dos 5 aos 9 anos, dois clusters de alto risco de mortalidade foram detectados; o mais provável localizado na mesorregião sul (RR: 1,6; LRV: 8,53). Dentre os 5 clusters detectados na faixa etária dos 10 aos 14 anos, o principal foi localizado na mesorregião norte (RR: 2,26; LRV: 7,84). Foi identificada redução das taxas de mortalidade na faixa etária mais jovem e aumento destas taxas na faixa etária mais velha. A identificação destes clusters, cuja análise merece ser replicada a outras partes do território nacional, é a etapa inicial para a investigação de possíveis fatores associados à morbi-mortalidade deste grupo ainda pouco explorado e para o planejamento de intervenções adequadas.


Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Brasil/epidemiologia , Humanos , Criança , Adolescente , Pré-Escolar , Conglomerados Espaço-Temporais , Fatores Etários , Feminino , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Análise Multivariada , Análise por Conglomerados
6.
Health Promot Int ; 39(3)2024 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38742894

RESUMO

Zimbabwe has implemented universal antenatal care (ANC) policies since 1980 that have significantly contributed to improvements in ANC access and early childhood mortality rates. However, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), two of Zimbabwe's main sources of health data and evidence, often provide seemingly different estimates of ANC coverage and under-five mortality rates. This creates confusion that can result in disparate policies and practices, with potential negative impacts on mother and child health in Zimbabwe. We conducted a comparability analysis of multiple DHS and MICS datasets to enhance the understanding of point estimates, temporal changes, rural-urban differences and reliability of estimates of ANC coverage and neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates (NMR, IMR and U5MR, separately) from 2009 to 2019 in Zimbabwe. Our two samples z-tests revealed that both DHS and MICS indicated significant increases in ANC coverage and declines in IMR and U5MR but only from 2009 to 2015. NMR neither increased nor declined from 2009 to 2019. Rural-urban differences were significant for ANC coverage (2009-15 only) but not for NMR, IMR and U5MR. We found that there is a need for more precise DHS and MICS estimates of urban ANC coverage and all estimates of NMR, IMR and U5MR, and that shorter recall periods provide more reliable estimates of ANC coverage in Zimbabwe. Our findings represent new interpretations and clearer insights into progress and gaps around ANC coverage and under-five mortality rates that can inform the development, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policy and practice responses and further research in Zimbabwe.


Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Cuidado Pré-Natal , Humanos , Zimbábue/epidemiologia , Lactente , Cuidado Pré-Natal/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Pré-Escolar , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Recém-Nascido , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Adulto , Gravidez , População Rural , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos , Adolescente , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem
7.
Prim Health Care Res Dev ; 25: e27, 2024 May 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38721695

RESUMO

AIM: The study assessed mothers, children and adolescents' health (MCAH) outcomes in the context of a Primary Health Care (PHC) project and associated costs in two protracted long-term refugee camps, along the Thai-Myanmar border. BACKGROUND: Myanmar refugees settled in Thailand nearly 40 years ago, in a string of camps along the border, where they fully depend on external support for health and social services. Between 2000 and 2018, a single international NGO has been implementing an integrated PHC project. METHODS: This retrospective study looked at the trends of MCAH indicators of mortality and morbidity and compared them to the sustainable development goals (SDGs) indicators. A review of programme documents explored and triangulated the evolution and changing context of the PHC services, and associated project costs were analysed. To verify changes over time, interviews with 12 key informants were conducted. FINDINGS: While maternal mortality (SDG3.1) remained high at 126.5/100,000 live births, child mortality (SDG 3.2) and infectious diseases in children under 5 (SDG 3.3) fell by 69% and by up to 92%, respectively. Maternal anaemia decreased by 30%; and more than 90% of pregnant women attended four or more antenatal care visits, whereas 80% delivered by a skilled birth attendant; caesarean section rates rose but remained low at an average of 3.7%; the adolescent (15-19 years) birth rate peaked at 188 per 1000 in 2015 but declined to 89/1000 in 2018 (SDG 3.7). CONCLUSION: Comprehensive PHC delivery, with improved health provider competence in MCAH care, together with secured funding is an appropriate strategy to bring MCAH indicators to acceptable levels. However, inequities due to confinement in camps, fragmentation of specific health services, prevent fulfilment of the 2030 SDG Agenda to 'Leave no one behind'. Costs per birth was 115 EURO in 2018; however, MCAH expenditure requires further exploration over a longer period.


Assuntos
Campos de Refugiados , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tailândia , Feminino , Mianmar , Adolescente , Criança , Gravidez , Pré-Escolar , Adulto , Refugiados/estatística & dados numéricos , Lactente , Masculino , Saúde da Criança , Atenção Primária à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem , Saúde do Adolescente , Recém-Nascido , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , População do Sudeste Asiático
8.
Lancet Glob Health ; 12(6): e938-e946, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38762296

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Latin American and Caribbean countries are dealing with the combined challenges of pandemic-induced socicoeconomic stress and increasing public debt, potentially leading to reductions in welfare and health-care services, including primary care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of primary health-care coverage on child mortality in Latin America over the past two decades and to forecast the potential effects of primary health-care mitigation during the current economic crisis. METHODS: This multicountry study integrated retrospective impact evaluations in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico from 2000 to 2019 with forecasting models covering up to 2030. We estimated the impact of coverage of primary health care on mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality) across different age groups and causes of death, adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care factors, with fixed-effects multivariable negative binomial models in 5647 municipalities with an adequate quality of vital statistics. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses. We integrated previous longitudinal datasets with validated dynamic microsimulation models and projected trends in under-5 mortality rates under alternative policy response scenarios until 2030. FINDINGS: High primary health-care coverage was associated with substantial reductions in post-neonatal mortality rates (rate ratio [RR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·71-0·74), toddler (ie, aged between 1 year and <5 years) mortality rates (0·75, 0·73-0·76), and under-5 mortality rates (0·81, 0·80-0·82), preventing 305 890 (95% CI 251 826-360 517) deaths of children younger than 5 years over the period 2000-19. High primary health-care coverage was also associated with lower under-5 mortality rates from nutritional deficiencies (RR 0·55, 95% CI 0·52-0·58), anaemia (0·64, 0·57-0·72), vaccine-preventable and vaccine-sensitive conditions (0·70, 0·68-0·72), and infectious gastroenteritis (0·78, 0·73-0·84). Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation response strategy implemented in the period 2020-30 that increases primary health-care coverage could reduce the under-5 mortality rate by up to 23% (RR 0·77, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) when compared with a fiscal austerity response, and this strategy would avoid 142 285 (95% CI 120 217-164 378) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. INTERPRETATION: The improvement in primary health-care coverage in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico over the past two decades has substantially contributed to improving child survival. Expansion of primary health-care coverage should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health effects of the current economic crisis and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals related to child health. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.


Assuntos
Saúde da Criança , Mortalidade da Criança , Previsões , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Humanos , Pré-Escolar , Atenção Primária à Saúde/economia , Lactente , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , América Latina/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Recém-Nascido , Recessão Econômica , Masculino , Feminino
9.
Demography ; 61(3): 643-664, 2024 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38779973

RESUMO

The average age of infant deaths, a10, and the average number of years lived-in the age interval-by those dying between ages 1 and 5, a41, are important quantities allowing the construction of any life table including these ages. In many applications, the direct calculation of these parameters is not possible, so they are estimated using the infant mortality rate-or the death rate from 0 to 1-as a predictor. Existing methods are general approximations that do not consider the full variability in the age patterns of mortality below the age of 5. However, at the same level of mortality, under-five deaths can be more or less concentrated during the first weeks and months of life, thus resulting in very different values of a10 and a41. This article proposes an indirect estimation of these parameters by using a recently developed model of under-five mortality and taking advantage of a new, comprehensive database by detailed age-which is used for validation. The model adapts to a variety of inputs (e.g., rates, probabilities, or the proportion of deaths by sex or for both sexes combined), providing more flexibility for the users and increasing the precision of the estimates. This fresh perspective consolidates a new method that outperforms all previous approaches.


Assuntos
Mortalidade Infantil , Tábuas de Vida , Humanos , Lactente , Feminino , Masculino , Pré-Escolar , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Modelos Estatísticos , Recém-Nascido , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Fatores Etários
10.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1431, 2024 May 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38807078

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The United Nations' Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals both underscore the critical need to reduce the under-five mortality rate globally. China has made remarkable progress in decreasing the mortality rate of children under five. This study aims to examine the trends in child mortality rates from 2002 to 2022 and the causes of deaths among neonates, infants, and children under 5 years of age from 2013 to 2022 in Huangshi. METHODS: The data resource was supported and provided by the Huangshi Health Commission, Huangshi Maternal and Child Health Hospital, and the Huangshi Statistics Bureau. Figures were drawn using Origin 2021. RESULTS: The mortality rate among children under 5 years old significantly decreased, from 21.38 per 1,000 live births in 2002 to 3.53 per 1,000 live births in 2022. The infant mortality rate also saw a significant decline, to 15.06 per 1,000 live births. Among the 1,929 recorded child deaths from 2013 to 2022, the top three causes were: F2 (Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight), accounting for 17.26% (333 deaths); I1 (Accidental drowning and submersion), for 14.83% (286 deaths); and I3 (Other accidental threats to breathing), for 12.29% (237 deaths). Of the 1,929 deaths, 1,117 were male children, representing 57.91%. The gender disparity in the Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) was calculated to be 1.38 (boys to girls). The leading causes of death under the age of five shifted from F2 (Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight) to I1 (Accidental drowning and submersion) as children aged, highlighting the need for policymakers and parents to intensify care and vigilance for children. CONCLUSIONS: Huangshi has achieved significant progress in lowering child mortality rates over the past two decades. The study calls for policymakers to enact more effective measures to further reduce the mortality rate among children under 5 years of age in Huangshi. Furthermore, it advises parents to dedicate more time and effort to supervising and nurturing their children, promoting a safer and healthier development.


Assuntos
Causas de Morte , Mortalidade da Criança , Mortalidade Infantil , Humanos , China/epidemiologia , Lactente , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Causas de Morte/tendências
11.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 10649, 2024 05 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38724642

RESUMO

During the twentieth century, childhood mortality was dramatically reduced globally, falling by more than 90% in the United States and much of Europe. Total fertility also fell, with the combined result that many parents who otherwise would have experienced the loss of a child were spared the trauma and negative health consequences that accompany such a loss. Here I use mathematical modeling to argue that the reduction in the frequency of child death that occurred in the twentieth century indirectly led to a substantial reduction in female mortality, resulting in an extension of female lifespan. I estimate that the reduction in maternal bereavement in the US during the twentieth century indirectly increased mean female lifespan after age 15 by approximately 1 year. I discuss implications for our understanding of the persistence of the sex gap in longevity and approaches to improving maternal health outcomes in countries that still face high levels of childhood mortality.


Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Mães , Humanos , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Feminino , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Lactente , Adulto , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Luto , Masculino , Longevidade , Modelos Teóricos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Recém-Nascido
12.
JAMA Netw Open ; 7(5): e2410046, 2024 May 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38728034

RESUMO

Importance: The global success of the child survival agenda depends on how rapidly mortality at early ages after birth declines in India, and changes need to be monitored to evaluate the status. Objective: To understand the disaggregated patterns of decrease in early-life mortality across states and union territories (UTs) of India. Design, Setting, and Participants: Repeated cross-sectional data from the 5 rounds of the National Family Health Survey conducted in 1992-1993, 1998-1999, 2005-2006, 2015-2016, and 2019-2021 were used in a representative population-based study. The study was based on data of children born in the past 5 years with complete information on date of birth and age at death. The analysis was conducted in February 2024. Exposure: Time and geographic units. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality rates were computed for 4 early-life periods: early-neonatal (first 7 days), late-neonatal (8-28 days), postneonatal (29 days to 11 months), and child (12-59 months). For early and late neonatal periods, the rates are expressed as deaths per 1000 live births, for postneonatal, as deaths per 1000 children aged at least 29 days and for child, deaths per 1000 children aged at least 1 year. These are collectively mentioned as deaths per 1000 for all mortalities. The relative burden of each of the age-specific mortalities to total mortality in children younger than 5 years was also computed. Results: The final analytical sample included 33 667 (1993), 29 549 (1999), 23 020 (2006), 82 294 (2016), and 64 242 (2021) children who died before their fifth birthday in the past 5 years of each survey. Mortality rates were lowest for the late-neonatal and child periods; early-neonatal was the highest in 2021. Child mortality experienced the most substantial decrease between 1993 and 2021, from 33.5 to 6.9 deaths per 1000, accompanied by a substantial reduction in interstate inequalities. While early-neonatal (from 33.5 to 20.3 deaths per 1000), late-neonatal (from 14.1 to 4.1 deaths per 1000), and postneonatal (from 31.0 to 10.8 deaths per 1000) mortality also decreased, interstate inequalities remained notable. The mortality burden shifted over time and is now concentrated during the early-neonatal (48.3% of total deaths in children younger than 5 years) and postneonatal (25.6%) periods. A stagnation or worsening for certain states and UTs was observed from 2016 to 2021 for early-neonatal, late-neonatal, and postneonatal mortality. If this pattern continues, these states and UTs will not meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets related to child survival. Conclusions and Relevance: In this repeated cross-sectional study of 5 time periods, the decrease in mortality during early-neonatal and postneonatal phases of mortality was relatively slower, with notable variations across states and UTs. The findings suggest that policies pertaining to early-neonatal and postneonatal mortalities need to be prioritized and targeting of policies and interventions needs to be context-specific.


Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Mortalidade Infantil , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Estudos Transversais , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Masculino , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos
13.
Lancet ; 403(10441): 2307-2316, 2024 May 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38705159

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.


Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Programas de Imunização , Vacinação , Humanos , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Criança , Saúde Global , Recém-Nascido , Adulto , Adolescente , História do Século XX , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Saúde Pública , Adulto Jovem
14.
JAMA Netw Open ; 7(4): e248510, 2024 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38669020

RESUMO

Importance: Armed conflicts are directly and indirectly associated with morbidity and mortality due to destruction of health infrastructure and diversion of resources, forced displacement, environmental damage, and erosion of social and economic security. Colombia's conflict began in the 1940s and has been uniquely long-lasting and geographically dynamic. Objective: To estimate the proportion of infant and child mortality associated with armed conflict exposure from 1998 to 2019 in Colombia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This ecological cohort study includes data from all 1122 municipalities in Colombia from 1998 to 2019. Statistical analysis was conducted from February 2022 to June 2023. Exposure: Armed conflict exposure was measured dichotomously by the occurrence of conflict-related events in each municipality-year, enumerated and reported by the Colombian National Center for Historic Memory. Main Outcomes and Measures: Deaths among children younger than 5 years and deaths among infants younger than 1 year, offset by the number of births in that municipality-year, enumerated by Colombia's national vital statistics. Results: The analytical sample included 24 157 municipality-years and 223 101 conflict events covering the period from 1998 to 2019. Overall, the presence of armed conflict in a municipality was associated with a 52% increased risk of death for children younger than 5 years of age (relative risk, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.34-1.72]), with similar results for 1- and 5-year lagged analyses. Armed conflict was associated with a 61% increased risk in infant (aged <1 year) death (relative risk, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.43-1.82]). On the absolute scale, this translates to a risk difference of 3.7 excess child deaths per 1000 births (95% CI, 2.7-4.7 per 1000 births) and 3.0 excess infant deaths per 1000 births (95% CI, 2.3-3.6 per 1000 births) per year, beyond what would be expected in the absence of armed conflict. Across the 22-year study period, the population attributable risk was 31.7% (95% CI, 23.5%-39.1%) for child deaths and 35.3% (95% CI, 27.8%-42.0%) for infant deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: This ecological cohort study of Colombia's spatiotemporally dynamic armed conflict suggests that municipal exposure to armed conflict was associated with excess child and infant deaths. With a record number of children living near active conflict zones in 2020, policy makers and health professionals should understand the magnitude of and manner in which armed conflicts directly and indirectly undermine child health.


Assuntos
Conflitos Armados , Mortalidade da Criança , Mortalidade Infantil , Humanos , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Lactente , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Masculino , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Recém-Nascido , Estudos de Coortes , Criança
15.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 24(1): 326, 2024 Apr 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38671364

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal - 3.2 aims to eliminate all preventable under-five mortality rate (U5MR). In China, government have made efforts to provide maternal health services and reduce U5MR. Hence, we aimed to explore maternal health service utilization in relation to U5MR in China and its provinces in 1990-2017. METHODS: We obtained data from Global Burden of Disease 2017, China Health Statistics Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook, and Human Development Report China Special Edition. The trend of U5MR in each province of China from 1990 to 2017 was analyzed using Joinpoint Regression model. We measured the inequities in maternal health services using HEAT Plus, a health inequity measurement tool developed by the UN. The generalized estimating equation model was used to explore the association between maternal health service utilization (including prenatal screening, hospital delivery and postpartum visits) and U5MR. RESULTS: First, in China, the U5MR per 1000 live births decreased from 50 in 1990 to 12 in 2017 and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was - 5.2 (p < 0.05). Secondly, China had a high maternal health service utilization in 2017, with 96.5% for prenatal visits, 99.9% for hospital delivery, and 94% for postnatal visits. Inequity in maternal health services between provinces is declining, with hospital delivery rate showing the greatest decrease (SII, 14.01 to 1.87, 2010 to 2017). Third, an increase in the rate of hospital delivery rate can significantly reduce U5MR (OR 0.991, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.995). Postpartum visits rate with a one-year lag can reduce U5MR (OR 0.993, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.999). However, prenatal screening rate did not have a significant effect on U5MR. CONCLUSION: The decline in U5MR in China was associated with hospital delivery and postpartum visits. The design and implementation of maternal health services may provide references to other low-income and middle-income countries.


Assuntos
Serviços de Saúde Materna , Humanos , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Serviços de Saúde Materna/estatística & dados numéricos , Gravidez , Recém-Nascido , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Lactente , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Cuidado Pré-Natal/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade Materna/tendências
16.
JAMA ; 331(6): 482-490, 2024 02 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38349371

RESUMO

Importance: Repeated mass distribution of azithromycin has been shown to reduce childhood mortality by 14% in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the estimated effect varied by location, suggesting that the intervention may not be effective in different geographical areas, time periods, or conditions. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of twice-yearly azithromycin to reduce mortality in children in the presence of seasonal malaria chemoprevention. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cluster randomized placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of single-dose azithromycin for prevention of all-cause childhood mortality included 341 communities in the Nouna district in rural northwestern Burkina Faso. Participants were children aged 1 to 59 months living in the study communities. Interventions: Communities were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral azithromycin or placebo distribution. Children aged 1 to 59 months were offered single-dose treatment twice yearly for 3 years (6 distributions) from August 2019 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause childhood mortality, measured during a twice-yearly enumerative census. Results: A total of 34 399 children (mean [SD] age, 25.2 [18] months) in the azithromycin group and 33 847 children (mean [SD] age, 25.6 [18] months) in the placebo group were included. A mean (SD) of 90.1% (16.0%) of the censused children received the scheduled study drug in the azithromycin group and 89.8% (17.1%) received the scheduled study drug in the placebo group. In the azithromycin group, 498 deaths were recorded over 60 592 person-years (8.2 deaths/1000 person-years). In the placebo group, 588 deaths were recorded over 58 547 person-years (10.0 deaths/1000 person-years). The incidence rate ratio for mortality was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67-1.02; P = .07) in the azithromycin group compared with the placebo group. The incidence rate ratio was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.72-1.36) in those aged 1 to 11 months, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.67-1.27) in those aged 12 to 23 months, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.57-0.94) in those aged 24 to 59 months. Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality in children (aged 1-59 months) was lower with biannual mass azithromycin distribution in a setting in which seasonal malaria chemoprevention was also being distributed, but the difference was not statistically significant. The study may have been underpowered to detect a clinically relevant difference. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03676764.


Assuntos
Antibacterianos , Azitromicina , Mortalidade da Criança , Malária , Humanos , Azitromicina/provisão & distribuição , Azitromicina/uso terapêutico , Burkina Faso/epidemiologia , Quimioprevenção/métodos , Quimioprevenção/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Malária/epidemiologia , Malária/mortalidade , Malária/prevenção & controle , Antibacterianos/provisão & distribuição , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Estações do Ano , Lactente , Pré-Escolar
18.
J Natl Med Assoc ; 116(1): 56-69, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38151422

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Racial/ethnic inequities for inpatient mortality in children at a national level in the U.S. have not been explored. The objective of this study was to evaluate differences in inpatient mortality rate among different racial/ethnic groups, using the Kids' Inpatient Database. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of children of ages greater than 28 days and less than 21 years discharged during 2012 and 2016. Racial/ethnic groups - White, Black, Hispanic, Asian and Pacific Islander and Native Americans were analyzed in two cohorts, Cohort A (all discharges) and Cohort B (ventilated children). RESULTS: A total of 4,247,604 and 79,116 discharges were included in cohorts A and B, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that the inpatient mortality rate was highest among Asian and Pacific Islander children for both cohorts: A (0.47% [0.42-0.51]), B (10.9% [9.8-12.1]). Regression analysis showed that Asian and Pacific Islander and Black children had increased odds of inpatient mortality compared to White children: A (1.319 [1.162-1.496], 1.178 [1.105-1.257], respectively) and B (1.391 [1.199-1.613], 1.163 [1.079-1.255], respectively). Population-based hospital mortality was highest in Black children (1.17 per 10,000 children). CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient mortality rates are significantly higher in U.S. children of Asian and Pacific Islander and Black races compared to White children. U.S. population-based metrics such as hospitalization rate, ventilation rate, and hospital mortality rate are highest in Black children. Our data suggest that lower median household income alone may not account for a higher inpatient mortality rate. The causes and prevention of racial and ethnic inequities in hospitalized children need to be explored further.


Assuntos
Criança Hospitalizada , Etnicidade , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Mortalidade , Grupos Raciais , Criança , Humanos , Criança Hospitalizada/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Transversais , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Hispânico ou Latino/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupos Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/etnologia , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade da Criança/etnologia , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Mortalidade/etnologia , Mortalidade/tendências , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Negro ou Afro-Americano/estatística & dados numéricos , Brancos/estatística & dados numéricos , Asiático/estatística & dados numéricos , População das Ilhas do Pacífico/estatística & dados numéricos , Indígena Americano ou Nativo do Alasca/estatística & dados numéricos
19.
J Nurs Scholarsh ; 56(3): 455-465, 2024 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38108526

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: As the largest profession within the healthcare industry, nursing and midwifery workforce (NMW) provides comprehensive healthcare to children and their families. This study quantified the independent role of NMW in reducing under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) worldwide. DESIGN: A retrospective, observational and correlational study to examine the independent role of NMW in protecting against U5MR. METHODS: Within 266 "countries", the cross-sectional correlations between NMW and U5MR were examined with scatter plots, Pearson's r, nonparametric, partial correlation and multiple regression. The affluence, education and urban advantages were considered as the potential competing factors for the NMW-U5MR relationship. The NMW-U5MR correlations in both developing and developed countries were explored and compared. RESULTS: Bivariate correlations revealed that NMW negatively and significantly correlated to U5MR worldwide. When the contributing effects of economic affluence, urbanization and education were removed, the independent NMW role in reducing U5MR remained significant. NMW independently explained 9.36% U5MR variance. Multilinear regression selected NMW as a significant factor contributing an extra 3% of explanation to U5MR variance when NMW, affluence, education and urban advantage were incorporated as the predicting variables. NMW correlated with U5MR significantly more strongly in developing countries than in developed countries. CONCLUSION: NMW, indexing nursing and midwifery service, was a significant factor for reducing U5MR worldwide. This beneficial effect explained 9.36% of U5MR variance which was independent of economic affluence, urbanization and education. The NMW may be a more significant risk factor for protecting children from dying under 5 years old in developing countries. As a strategic response to the advocacy of the United Nations to reduce child mortality, it is worthy for health authorities to consider a further extension of nurses and midwives' practice scope to enable communities to have more access to NMW healthcare services.


Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Humanos , Estudos Transversais , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , Lactente , Saúde da Criança/estatística & dados numéricos , Papel do Profissional de Enfermagem , Tocologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Países em Desenvolvimento/estatística & dados numéricos , Recém-Nascido , Enfermeiros Obstétricos/estatística & dados numéricos , Criança , Masculino
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