Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Boletim mensal VigiAR: 03/2024: volume 67

O Programa em Saúde Ambiental relacionado a populações expostas à poluição do ar do Município de São Paulo (VIGIAR) tem por objetivo desenvolver ações de vigilância em saúde ambiental, para populações expostas aos poluentes atmosféricos, de forma a orientar medidas de prevenção, promoção da saúde e de atenção integral, conforme preconizado pelo Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

Boletim mensal VigiAR: 02/2024: volume 66

O Programa em Saúde Ambiental relacionado a populações expostas à poluição do ar do Município de São Paulo (VIGIAR) tem por objetivo desenvolver ações de vigilância em saúde ambiental, para populações expostas aos poluentes atmosféricos, de forma a orientar medidas de prevenção, promoção da saúde e de atenção integral, conforme preconizado pelo Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).

Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity.

Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperature exceeds realised species' thermal limits) and opportunity (when temperature at a previously unsuitable site becomes suitable) for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions. Thermal exposure increases later and occurs more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Assemblages tend to show either high exposure or high opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce exposure around 100-fold whereas reductions in opportunities are halved. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century when exposure increases more rapidly under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, across emissions and dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% of opportunities are projected to persist until 2100. These results indicate thermal opportunities could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. Our work provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts.

Forest carbon stocks increase with higher dominance of ectomycorrhizal trees in high latitude forests.

Understanding the mechanisms controlling forest carbon accumulation is crucial for predicting and mitigating future climate change. Yet, it remains unclear whether the dominance of ectomycorrhizal (EcM) trees influences the carbon accumulation of entire forests. In this study, we analyzed forest inventory data from over 4000 forest plots across Northeast China. We find that EcM tree dominance consistently exerts a positive effect on tree, soil, and forest carbon stocks. Moreover, we observe that these positive effects are more pronounced during unfavorable climate conditions, at lower tree species richness, and during early successional stages. This underscores the potential of increasing the dominance of native EcM tree species not only to enhance carbon stocks but also to bolster resilience against climate change in high-latitude forests. Here we show that forest managers can make informed decisions to optimize carbon accumulation by considering various factors such as mycorrhizal types, climate, successional stages, and species richness.

Climate change triggered planktonic cyanobacterial blooms in a regulated temperate river.

Harmful algae blooms are a rare phenomenon in rivers but seem to increase with climate change and river regulation. To understand the controlling factors of cyanobacteria blooms that occurred between 2017 and 2020 over long stretches (> 250 km) of the regulated Moselle River in Western Europe, we measured physico-chemical and biological variables and compared those with a long-term dataset (1997-2016). Cyanobacteria (Microcystis) dominated the phytoplankton community in the late summers of 2017-2020 (cyano-period) with up to 110 µg Chlorophyll-a/L, but had not been observed in the river in the previous 20 years. From June to September, the average discharge in the Moselle was reduced to 69-76% and water temperature was 0.9-1.8 °C higher compared to the reference period. Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) declined since 1997, albeit total nutrient concentrations remained above limiting conditions in the study period. Cyanobacterial blooms correlated best with low discharge, high water temperature and low nitrate. We conclude that the recent cyanobacteria blooms have been caused by dry and warm weather resulting in low flow conditions and warm water temperature in the regulated Moselle. Under current climate projections, the Moselle may serve as an example for the future of regulated temperate rivers.

The Central Paratethys Sea-rise and demise of a Miocene European marine biodiversity hotspot.

The Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO, ~ 17-14 Ma) was a time of extraordinary marine biodiversity in the Circum-Mediterranean Region. This boom is best recorded in the deposits of the vanished Central Paratethys Sea, which covered large parts of central to southeastern Europe. This sea harbored an extraordinary tropical to subtropical biotic diversity. Here, we present a georeferenced dataset of 859 gastropod species and discuss geodynamics and climate as the main drivers to explain the changes in diversity. The tectonic reorganization around the Early/Middle Miocene boundary resulted in the formation of an archipelago-like landscape and favorable conditions of the MCO allowed the establishment of coral reefs. Both factors increased habitat heterogeneity, which boosted species richness. The subsequent cooling during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (~ 14-13 Ma) caused a drastic decline in biodiversity of about 67%. Among the most severely hit groups were corallivorous gastropods, reflecting the loss of coral reefs. Deep-water faunas experienced a loss by 57% of the species due to changing patterns in circulation. The low sea level led to a biogeographic fragmentation reflected in higher turnover rates. The largest turnover occurred with the onset of the Sarmatian when bottom water dysoxia eradicated the deep-water fauna whilst surface waters-dwelling planktotrophic species underwent a crisis.

Genetic admixture drives climate adaptation in the bank vole.

Genetic admixture introduces new variants at relatively high frequencies, potentially aiding rapid responses to environmental changes. Here, we evaluate its role in adaptive variation related to climatic conditions in bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) in Britain, using whole-genome data. Our results reveal loci showing excess ancestry from one of the two postglacial colonist populations inconsistent with overall admixture patterns. Notably, loci associated with climate adaptation exhibit disproportionate amounts of excess ancestry, highlighting the impact of admixture between colonist populations on local adaptation. The results suggest strong and localized selection on climate-adaptive loci, as indicated by steep clines and/or shifted cline centres, during population replacement. A subset, including a haemoglobin gene, is associated with oxidative stress responses, underscoring a role of oxidative stress in local adaptation. Our study highlights the important contribution of admixture during secondary contact between populations from distinct climatic refugia enriching adaptive diversity. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for predicting future adaptive capacity to anthropogenic climate change.

Metagenomic insights into microbial community structure and metabolism in alpine permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau.

Permafrost, characterized by its frozen soil, serves as a unique habitat for diverse microorganisms. Understanding these microbial communities is crucial for predicting the response of permafrost ecosystems to climate change. However, large-scale evidence regarding stratigraphic variations in microbial profiles remains limited. Here, we analyze microbial community structure and functional potential based on 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and metagenomic data obtained from an ∼1000 km permafrost transect on the Tibetan Plateau. We find that microbial alpha diversity declines but beta diversity increases down the soil profile. Microbial assemblages are primarily governed by dispersal limitation and drift, with the importance of drift decreasing but that of dispersal limitation increasing with soil depth. Moreover, genes related to reduction reactions (e.g., ferric iron reduction, dissimilatory nitrate reduction, and denitrification) are enriched in the subsurface and permafrost layers. In addition, microbial groups involved in alternative electron accepting processes are more diverse and contribute highly to community-level metabolic profiles in the subsurface and permafrost layers, likely reflecting the lower redox potential and more complicated trophic strategies for microorganisms in deeper soils. Overall, these findings provide comprehensive insights into large-scale stratigraphic profiles of microbial community structure and functional potentials in permafrost regions.

Enhancing Human Health and Wellbeing through Sustainably and Equitably Unlocking a Healthy Ocean's Potential.

A healthy ocean is essential for human health, and yet the links between the ocean and human health are often overlooked. By providing new medicines, technologies, energy, foods, recreation, and inspiration, the ocean has the potential to enhance human health and wellbeing. However, climate change, pollution, biodiversity loss, and inequity threaten both ocean and human health. Sustainable realisation of the ocean's health benefits will require overcoming these challenges through equitable partnerships, enforcement of laws and treaties, robust monitoring, and use of metrics that assess both the ocean's natural capital and human wellbeing. Achieving this will require an explicit focus on human rights, equity, sustainability, and social justice. In addition to highlighting the potential unique role of the healthcare sector, we offer science-based recommendations to protect both ocean health and human health, and we highlight the unique potential of the healthcare sector tolead this effort.

Climate impacts of alternative beef production systems depend on the functional unit used: Weight or monetary value.

Beef production has been identified as a significant source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the agricultural sector. United States and Canada account for about a quarter of the world's beef supply. To compare the GHG emission contributions of alternative beef production systems, we conducted a meta-analysis of 32 studies that were conducted between 2001 and 2023. Results indicated that GHG emissions from beef production in North America varied almost fourfold from 10.2 to 37.6 with an average of 21.4 kg CO2e/kg carcass weight (CW). Studies that considered soil C sequestration (C-seq) reported the highest mitigation potential in GHG emissions (80%), followed by growth enhancement technology (16%), diet modification (6%), and grazing management improvement (7%). Our study highlights the implications of using carbon intensity per economic activity (i.e., GHG emissions per monetary unit), compared to the more common metric of intensity on per weight of product basis (GHG emissions per kg CW) for comparisons across differentiated beef cattle products. While a positive association was found between the proportion of lifespan on grassland and the conventional weight-based indicator, grass-finished beef was found to have lower carbon intensity per economic activity than feedlot-finished beef. Our study emphasizes the need to incorporate land use and management effects and soil C-seq as fundamental aspects of beef GHG emissions and mitigation assessments.

Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes.

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.

Perspectives on climate action and the changing burden of infectious diseases among young Italian doctors and students: a national survey.

Background: The eco-climatic crisis has been defined by the World Health Organization as the "single biggest health threat facing humanity," influencing both the emergence of zoonoses and the spread of vector-borne and water-borne diseases. The aim of this survey was to explore knowledge, eco-anxiety and attitudes toward the ecological and climate crisis among young Italian doctors and medical students. Methods: A cross-sectional, multicenter survey was conducted from November 2022 to June 2023, by administering an anonymous questionnaire to Italian doctors and students of medicine. Endpoint of the study was a Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) score on ecological and climate crisis (0-20 points). Association between variables and KAP score was assessed by Kruskal-Wallis' or Spearman's test, as appropriate, and significant variables were included into ordinal regression model and reported as adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Both KAP and eco-anxiety scores showed acceptable levels of consistency with Cronbach's alpha. A total of 605 medical doctors and students living in 19 Italian regions were included in the study. Median age [Q1-Q3] was 27.6 [24.1-31.3] and females were 352 (58.2%). Despite showing good attitudes toward climate action, knowledge gap were found, with 42.5% (n = 257) of the respondents not knowing the temperature limits set by the Paris Agreements and 45.5% (n = 275) believing that climate change is caused by sunspots. Fears suggestive for eco-anxiety were common. At multivariable ordinal regression, high levels of eco-anxiety (aOR 1.29, p = 0.001) and low trust in government action (aOR 1.96, p = 0.003) were associated with a higher KAP score. Only one Italian medical school offered an educational module on climate change. Conclusion: Young Italian doctors and medical students are concerned about the climate crisis but show poor knowledge of these topics. The Italian academic system should urgently respond to this need.

Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches.

Although climate change is expected to drive tree species toward colder and wetter regions of their distribution, broadscale empirical evidence is lacking. One possibility is that past and present human activities in forests obscure or alter the effects of climate. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species density within their climatic niches across Northern Hemisphere forests. We observe a reduction in mean density across species, coupled with a tendency toward increasing tree size. However, the direction and magnitude of changes in density exhibit considerable variability between species, influenced by stand development that results from previous stand-level disturbances. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a significant change in density toward cold and wet climatic conditions for 43% of the species, compared to only 14% of species significantly changing their density toward warm and arid conditions in both early- and late-development stands. The observed changes in climate-driven density showed no clear association with species traits related to drought tolerance, recruitment and dispersal capacity, or resource use, nor with the temperature or aridity affiliation of the species, leaving the underlying mechanism uncertain. Forest conservation policies and associated management strategies might want to consider anticipated long-term species range shifts alongside the integration of contemporary within-distribution density changes.

Climate change can disproportionately reduce habitats of stream fishes with restricted ranges in southern South America.

Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa worldwide owing to changes in land use, species introductions, and climate change. Although more than half of the freshwater fishes in the Chilean Mediterranean ecoregion are considered vulnerable or endangered, still little is known about their biogeography. Fishes of the family Perciliidae are endemic of this region and ideal cases to study potential implications of global warming given their endangered conservation status, small size, restricted range, and limited dispersal capacity in fragmented habitats. Here, we model the spatial distribution of habitats for Percilia irwini and P. gillissi under current (1970-2000) and future (2050-2080) climatic scenarios (SSP245, SSP585). We implement maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models adapted for stream networks using high-resolution datasets of selected geophysical and climatic variables. At present, both species inhabit relatively low-quality habitats. In the future (SSP585), suitable habitats for P. irwini are predicted to be reduced drastically (99%) with potential local extirpations in its northern range. Similarly, up to 62% of suitable habitats for P. gillissi would also be reduced in the future. Our study provides insights about assessing future threats and vulnerability of endemic, endangered, range-restricted, and small-bodied freshwater species in this region and elsewhere.

Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change.

The global food system is a key driver of land-use and climate change which in turn drive biodiversity change. Developing sustainable food systems is therefore critical to reversing biodiversity loss. We use the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE to estimate the biodiversity impacts embedded within the global food system in 2011. Using models that capture regional variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity both to land use and climate change, we calculate the land-driven and greenhouse gas-driven footprints of food using two metrics of biodiversity: local species richness and rarity-weighted species richness. We show that the footprint of land area underestimates biodiversity impact in more species-rich regions and that our metric of rarity-weighted richness places a greater emphasis on biodiversity costs in Central and South America. We find that methane emissions are responsible for 70% of the overall greenhouse gas-driven biodiversity footprint and that, in several regions, emissions from a single year's food production are associated with global biodiversity loss equivalent to 2% or more of that region's total land-driven biodiversity loss. The measures we present are relatively simple to calculate and could be incorporated into decision-making and environmental impact assessments by governments and businesses.

Interannual site fidelity by Svalbard walruses.

The Arctic is experiencing rapid reductions in sea ice, affecting all ice-dependant species. In the present study we examine interannual seasonal movements and habitat use in relation to sea ice coverage for one of the Arctic endemic marine mammals. We tagged 40 male walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) in the Svalbard Archipelago with custom-designed tusk-mounted GPS loggers. Twelve of these animals provided tracks that lasted 1-6 years. Eleven of the walruses displayed clear seasonal migratory behaviour between summer foraging areas and winter breeding areas. Individuals showed high inter-individual variation, but clear site fidelity, using the same areas in consecutive years despite variable sea ice conditions. The walruses swam 5225-10,406 km per year and travelled remarkably similar distances between years on an individual basis. The phenology of migration was not impacted by sea ice concentrations or daylight length but was consistent at the individual level, suggesting endogenous drivers. Sea ice concentrations influenced movement behaviour with animals showing more tortuous paths when in areas with heavy sea ice, possibly searching for polynyas where females reside. Ongoing climate change is expected to drastically change walrus habitat, and it remains to be seen if walruses will be able to shift from their fixed seasonal migratory routines.

Understanding the physiological and biological response to ambient heat exposure in pregnancy: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change increases not only the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme heat events but also annual temperatures globally, resulting in many negative health effects, including harmful effects on pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes. As temperatures continue to increase precipitously, there is a growing need to understand the underlying biological pathways of this association. This systematic review will focus on maternal, placental and fetal changes that occur in pregnancy due to environmental heat stress exposure, in order to identify the evidence-based pathways that play a role in this association. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We will search PubMed and Ovid Embase databases from inception using tested and validated search algorithms. Inclusion of any studies that involve pregnant women and have measured environmental heat stress exposure and either maternal, placental or fetal physiological or biochemical changes and are available in English. Modelling studies or those with only animals will be excluded. The risk of bias will be assessed using the Office of Health Assessment and Translation tool. Abstract screening, data extraction and risk of bias assessment will be conducted by two independent reviewers.Environmental parameters will be reported for each study and where possible these will be combined to calculate a heat stress indicator to allow comparison of exposure between studies. A narrative synthesis will be presented following standard guidelines. Where outcome measures have at least two levels of exposure, we will conduct a dose-response meta-analysis should there be at least three studies with the same outcome. A random effects meta-analysis will be conducted where at least three studies give the same outcome. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This systematic review and meta-analysis does not require ethical approval. Dissemination will be through peer-reviewed journal publication and presentation at international conferences/interest groups. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42024511153.