Optimal age to discontinue long-term surveillance of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: comparative cost-effectiveness of surveillance by age.

OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines recommend long-term image-based surveillance for patients with low-risk intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). This simulation study aimed to examine the comparative cost-effectiveness of continued versus discontinued surveillance at different ages and define the optimal age to stop surveillance. DESIGN: We constructed a Markov model with a lifetime horizon to simulate the clinical course of patients with IPMNs receiving imaging-based surveillance. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for continued versus discontinued surveillance at different ages to stop surveillance, stratified by sex and IPMN types (branch-duct vs mixed-type). We determined the optimal age to stop surveillance as the lowest age at which the ICER exceeded the willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100 000 per quality-adjusted life year. To estimate model parameters, we used a clinical cohort of 3000 patients with IPMNs and a national database including 40 166 patients with pancreatic cancer receiving pancreatectomy as well as published data. RESULTS: In male patients, the optimal age to stop surveillance was 76-78 years irrespective of the IPMN types, compared with 70, 73, 81, and 84 years for female patients with branch-duct IPMNs <20 mm, =20-29 mm, ≥30 mm and mixed-type IPMNs, respectively. The suggested ages became younger according to an increasing level of comorbidities. In cases with high comorbidity burden, the ICERs were above the willingness-to-pay threshold irrespective of sex and the size of branch-duct IPMNs. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of long-term IPMN surveillance depended on sex, IPMN types, and comorbidity levels, suggesting the potential to personalise patient management from the health economic perspective.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas - a cost-effectiveness analysis of management strategies for the branch-duct subtype.

BACKGROUND: Branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) presents a clinical conundrum. Rigorous long-term surveillance or surgical resection is recommended. The economic consequences of the management have not been fully investigated. METHODS: A Markov decision model compared 4 strategies for low-risk BD-IPMN: I = upfront total pancreatectomy, II = upfront partial pancreatectomy, III = initial surveillance, IV = watchful waiting. Surveillance was based on the Swedish Guidelines for Pancreatic Cancer. Probabilities and costs were obtained from the participating unit and from the scientific literature. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and sensitivity analyses were performed by varying relevant parameters. Survival was reported in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: Strategy III was the most cost-effective strategy with an ICER of €31 682 compared to strategy IV. Strategy I was the most expensive but yielded the best QALY (9.32). Total number of years, annual risk of pancreatic cancer and annual risk of a low-risk BD-IPMN turning into a high-risk lesion had the greatest impact in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Initial surveillance seems to be the most cost-effective strategy in the management of low-risk asymptomatic BD-IPMN. However, the possibility of personalized approaches remains to be investigated.