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1.
PLoS One ; 19(6): e0301785, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38870106

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 7.02 million deaths as of January 2024 and profoundly affected most countries' Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Here, we study the interaction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mortality, and economic output between January 2020 and December 2022 across 25 European countries. METHODS: We use a Bayesian mixed effects model with auto-regressive terms to estimate the temporal relationships between disease transmission, excess deaths, changes in economic output, transit mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) across countries. RESULTS: Disease transmission intensity (logRt) decreases GDP and increases excess deaths, where the latter association is longer-lasting. Changes in GDP as well as prior week transmission intensity are both negatively associated with each other (-0.241, 95% CrI: -0.295 - -0.189). We find evidence of risk-averse behaviour, as changes in transit and prior week transmission intensity are negatively associated (-0.055, 95% CrI: -0.074 to -0.036). Our results highlight a complex cost-benefit trade-off from individual NPIs. For example, banning international travel is associated with both increases in GDP (0.014, 0.002-0.025) and decreases in excess deaths (-0.014, 95% CrI: -0.028 - -0.001). Country-specific random effects, such as the poverty rate, are positively associated with excess deaths while the UN government effectiveness index is negatively associated with excess deaths. INTERPRETATION: The interplay between transmission intensity, excess deaths, population mobility and economic output is highly complex, and none of these factors can be considered in isolation. Our results reinforce the intuitive idea that significant economic activity arises from diverse person-to-person interactions. Our analysis quantifies and highlights that the impact of disease on a given country is complex and multifaceted. Long-term economic impairments are not fully captured by our model, as well as long-term disease effects (Long COVID).


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19 , Produto Interno Bruto , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/economia , Humanos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Viagem
3.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 18(6): e0012201, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38829895

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dengue is spreading in (sub)tropical areas, and half of the global population is at risk. The macroeconomic impact of dengue extends beyond healthcare costs. This study evaluated the impact of dengue on gross domestic product (GDP) based on approaches tailored to two dengue-endemic countries, Thailand and Brazil, from the tourism and workforce perspectives, respectively. FINDINGS: Because the tourism industry is a critical economic sector for Thailand, lost tourism revenues were estimated to analyze the impact of a dengue outbreak. An input-output model estimated that the direct effects (on international tourism) and indirect effects (on suppliers) of dengue on tourism reduced overall GDP by 1.43 billion US dollars (USD) (0.26%) in the outbreak year 2019. The induced effect (reduced employee income/spending) reduced Thailand's GDP by 375 million USD (0.07%). Overall, lost tourism revenues reduced Thailand's GDP by an estimated 1.81 billion USD (0.33%) in 2019 (3% of annual tourism revenue). An inoperability input-output model was used to analyze the effect of workforce absenteeism on GDP due to a dengue outbreak in Brazil. This model calculates the number of lost workdays associated with ambulatory and hospitalized dengue. Input was collected from state-level epidemiological and economic data for 2019. An estimated 22.4 million workdays were lost in the employed population; 39% associated with the informal sector. Lost workdays due to dengue reduced Brazil's GDP by 876 million USD (0.05%). CONCLUSIONS: The economic costs of dengue outbreaks far surpass the direct medical costs. Dengue reduces overall GDP and inflicts national economic losses. With a high proportion of the population lacking formal employment in both countries and low income being a barrier to seeking care, dengue also poses an equity challenge. A combination of public health measures, like vector control and vaccination, against dengue is recommended to mitigate the broader economic impact of dengue.


Assuntos
Dengue , Surtos de Doenças , Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/economia , Humanos , Brasil/epidemiologia , Tailândia/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/economia , Turismo , Produto Interno Bruto
4.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 24(1): 714, 2024 Jun 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38858705

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: This study examines the association between healthcare indicators and hospitalization rates in three high-income European countries, namely Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, from 2015 to 2020. METHOD: We used a sex-stratified generalized additive model (GAM) to investigate the impact of select healthcare indicators on hospitalization rates, adjusted by general economic status-i.e., gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. RESULTS: Our findings indicate a consistent decline in hospitalization rates over time for all three countries. The proportion of health expenditure spent on hospitals, the number of physicians and nurses, and hospital beds were not statistically significantly associated with hospitalization rates. However, changes in the number of employed medical doctors per 10,000 population were statistically significantly associated with changes of hospitalization rates in the same direction, with the effect being stronger for males. Additionally, higher GDP per capita was associated with increased hospitalization rates for both males and females in all three countries and in all models. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between healthcare spending and declining hospitalization rates was not statistically significant, suggesting that the healthcare systems may be shifting towards primary care, outpatient care, and on prevention efforts.


Assuntos
Gastos em Saúde , Hospitalização , Humanos , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Hospitalização/economia , Gastos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Gastos em Saúde/tendências , Masculino , Feminino , Produto Interno Bruto/estatística & dados numéricos , Países Bálticos , Letônia , Estônia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Lituânia
5.
J Environ Manage ; 363: 121376, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38852413

RESUMO

The jeopardizing of ecological security due to the detrimental effects of human activities necessitates the adoption of various actions to reduce ecological intensity. Though some studies have explored the moderating impact of financial development (FND) towards achieving ecological security, in Arab World it has not been thoroughly investigated. Against this backdrop, we investigate combined role of agricultural production (AFP), gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption, population, direct and moderating impacts of FND on ecological intensity for a panel of 12 Arab League member states from 1995 to 2021. The empirical outcomes unveiled that AFP and GDP have U-shaped nexus with ecological intensity. It posits that at early stages of AFP, ecological intensity is reduced to a certain level, beyond which higher AFPhinders ecological security supporting the evidence against the Borlaug hypothesis. Our findings further unfolded that environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis does not hold for the selected Arab League member states, denoting that real GDP has a U-shaped relationship with ecological intensity. Further findings confirm that energy consumption induces ecological deterioration in the absence of its interaction with FND, along with the interaction term. The causality results largely support these outcomes. Based on these findings, Arab League's climate-related policies should further explore FND to drive energy transition and environmentally friendly measures.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Ecologia , Produto Interno Bruto , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Humanos
6.
J Environ Manage ; 359: 121040, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38718609

RESUMO

This study aims to analyze comprehensively the impact of different economic and demographic factors, which affect economic development, on environmental performance. In this context, the study considers the Environmental Performance Index as the response variable, uses GDP per capita, tariff rate, tax burden, government expenditure, inflation, unemployment, population, income tax rate, public debt, FDI inflow, and corporate tax rate as the explanatory variables, examines 181 countries, performs a novel Super Learner (SL) algorithm, which includes a total of six machine learning (ML) algorithms, and uses data for the years 2018, 2020, and 2022. The results demonstrate that (i) the SL algorithm has a superior capacity with regard to other ML algorithms; (ii) gross domestic product per capita is the most crucial factor in the environmental performance followed by tariff rates, tax burden, government expenditure, and inflation, in order; (iii) among all, the corporate tax rate has the lowest importance on the environmental performance followed by also foreign direct investment, public debt, income tax rate, population, and unemployment; (iv) there are some critical thresholds, which imply that the impact of the factors on the environmental performance change according to these barriers. Overall, the study reveals the nonlinear impact of the variables on environmental performance as well as their relative importance and critical threshold. Thus, the study provides policymakers valuable insights in re-formulating their environmental policies to increase environmental performance. Accordingly, various policy options are discussed.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Aprendizado de Máquina , Meio Ambiente , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Produto Interno Bruto
7.
PLoS One ; 19(5): e0301764, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38728326

RESUMO

The current research project investigates the correlation between economic growth, government spending, and public revenue in seventeen Indian states spanning the years 1990 to 2020. An analysis of the relationship between key fiscal policy variables and economic growth was conducted utilising a panel data approach, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), and fully modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS & DOLS) estimation. In our investigation, we assessed the impacts of non-tax revenue, development plan expenditure, tax revenue, and development non-plan expenditure on (i) the net state domestic product (NSDP) and (ii) the NSDP per capita. The findings indicate that the selected fiscal variables are significantly related. The results indicate that expeditious expansion of the fiscal sector is obligatory to stimulate economic growth in India and advance the actual development of the economies of these states.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Índia , Humanos , Desenvolvimento Sustentável/economia , Governo , Produto Interno Bruto , Modelos Econômicos , Despesas Públicas
8.
PLoS One ; 19(5): e0301220, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38758823

RESUMO

This study investigates the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and economic growth at sectoral levels in Bangladesh, employing a panel study framework. Utilizing sectoral-level panel data spanning six sectors from 2007-08 to 2018-19, the analysis is conducted using Panel Vector Error Correction Model (Panel VECM). Results from panel unit root tests confirm that all variables are integrated of order one I (1), indicating stationarity. The Pedroni panel co-integration test further supports the presence of co-integration among the variables. Notably, the Panel VECM reveals evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship from Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) to Real Foreign Direct Investment (RFDI) across all six sectors of Bangladesh. The findings underscore the significance of formulating pragmatic policies and implementing them effectively to attract FDI across sectors, thereby contributing to the overall economic growth of Bangladesh.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Investimentos em Saúde , Bangladesh , Investimentos em Saúde/economia , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , Modelos Econômicos
9.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 462, 2024 May 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38698313

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) such as leprosy, lymphatic filariasis (LF), schistosomiasis and onchocerciasis are endemic in several African countries. These diseases can lead to severe pain and permanent disability, which can negatively affect the economic productivity of the affected person(s), and hence resulting into low economic performance at the macrolevel. Nonetheless, empirical evidence of the effects of these NTDs on economic performance at the macrolevel is sparse. This study therefore investigates the effects of the above-mentioned NTDs on economic performance at the macrolevel in Africa. METHODS: The study employs a panel design with data comprising 24 to 45 African countries depending on the NTD in question, over the period, 2002 to 2019. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as the proxy for economic performance (Dependent variable) and the prevalence of the above-mentioned NTDs are used as the main independent variables. The random effects (RE), fixed effects (FE) and the instrumental variable fixed effects (IVFE) panel data regressions are used as estimation techniques. RESULTS: We find that, an increase in the prevalence of the selected NTDs is associated with a fall in economic performance in the selected African countries, irrespective of the estimation technique used. Specifically, using the IVFE regression estimates, we find that a percentage increase in the prevalence of leprosy, LF, schistosomiasis and onchocerciasis is associated with a reduction in economic performance by 0.43%, 0.24%, 0.28% and 0.36% respectively, at either 1% or 5% level of significance. CONCLUSION: The findings highlight the need to increase attention and bolster integrated efforts or measures towards tackling these diseases in order to curb their deleterious effects on economic performance. Such measures can include effective mass drug administration (MDA), enhancing access to basic drinking water and sanitation among others.


Assuntos
Doenças Negligenciadas , Medicina Tropical , Doenças Negligenciadas/epidemiologia , Doenças Negligenciadas/economia , Humanos , África/epidemiologia , Medicina Tropical/economia , Esquistossomose/epidemiologia , Esquistossomose/economia , Hanseníase/epidemiologia , Hanseníase/economia , Prevalência , Oncocercose/epidemiologia , Oncocercose/economia , Produto Interno Bruto , Filariose Linfática/epidemiologia , Filariose Linfática/economia
10.
Glob Public Health ; 19(1): 2341403, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38659107

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted China's economic and social development. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of the epidemic on the economy is vital for formulating scientifically grounded epidemic management policies. This study assesses the economic losses and influence paths of a large-scale epidemic in China. We proposed three COVID-19 scenarios - serious, normal, and mild - to evaluate the direct economic impact on China's GDP from a demand perspective. An input-output model was used to estimate the indirect impact. Our findings show that China's GDP could lose 94,206, 75,365, and 56,524 hundred million yuan under serious, normal, and mild scenarios, respectively, with corresponding GDP decline rates of 9.27%, 7.42%, and 5.56%. Under the normal scenario, indirect economic loss and total loss are projected at 75,364 and 489,386 hundred million yuan, respectively. Additionally, the pandemic led to a reduction in carbon emissions: direct emissions decreased by 1,218.69 million tons, indirect emissions by 9,594.32 million tons, and total emissions by 10,813.01 million tons across various industries. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic and environmental impacts of the pandemic.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , China/epidemiologia , Pandemias/economia , Produto Interno Bruto
11.
Inquiry ; 61: 469580241248101, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38685826

RESUMO

In Ghana, malaria remains the number 1 reason for outpatient department visits, making it a major public health problem. Thus, there could be significant lost productivity days as a result of malaria morbidity and mortality, which could negatively affect economic output at the macrolevel. Nonetheless, there is a dearth of empirical evidence of the effect of malaria on macroeconomic output in Ghana. This study therefore aims to provide the foremost empirical evidence regarding the effect of malaria prevalence on macroeconomic output in Ghana using a time series design with data spanning the period 1990 to 2019. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), serving as a proxy for macroeconomic output, is the dependent variable, while the prevalence of malaria (overall, among only males and among only females) serves as the main independent variable. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression is used as the baseline estimation technique and the Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least Square (IV2SLS) regression is employed as the robustness check estimator due to its ability to deal with endogeneity. The IV2SLS regression results show that a percentage increase in the overall prevalence of malaria is associated with a 1.16% decrease in macroeconomic output at 1% significance level. We also find that the effect of malaria in males on macroeconomic output is slightly higher relative to females. The findings from the OLS regression are not qualitatively different from the IV2SLS regression estimates. There is therefore the need to strengthen efforts such as quality case management, larval source management, mass distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets, social behavior change, surveillance (both epidemiological and entomological), intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy, research among others, which are important toward eliminating malaria.


Assuntos
Malária , Humanos , Gana/epidemiologia , Malária/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Feminino , Masculino , Produto Interno Bruto/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Sexuais
12.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0299657, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38452027

RESUMO

Recently, the economy in Guangdong province has ranked first in the country, maintaining a good growth momentum. The prediction of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Guangdong province is an important issue. Through predicting the GDP, it is possible to analyze whether the economy in Guangdong province can maintain high-quality growth. Hence, to accurately forecast the economy in Guangdong, this paper proposed an Elman neural network combining with wavelet function. The wavelet function not only stimulates the forecast ability of Elman neural network, but also improves the convergence speed of Elman neural network. Experimental results indicate that our model has good forecast ability of regional economy, and the forecast accuracy reach 0.971. In terms of forecast precision and errors, our model defeats the competitors. Moreover, our model gains advanced forecast results to both individual economic indicator and multiple economic indicators. This means that our model is independently of specific scenarios in regional economic forecast. We also find that the investment in education has a major positive impact on regional economic development in Guangdong province, and the both surges positive correlation. Experimental results also show that our model does not exhibit exponential training time with the augmenting of data volume. Consequently, we propose that our model is suitable for the prediction of large-scale datasets. Additionally, we demonstrate that using wavelet function gains more profits than using complex network architectures in forecast accuracy and training cost. Moreover, using wavelet function can simplify the designs of complexity network architectures, reducing the training parameter of neural networks.


Assuntos
Investimentos em Saúde , Redes Neurais de Computação , Escolaridade , Previsões , Produto Interno Bruto
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(11): e2318365121, 2024 Mar 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38451950

RESUMO

To construct a stochastic version of [R. J. Barro, J. Polit. Econ. 87, 940-971 (1979)] normative model of tax rates and debt/GDP dynamics, we add risks and markets for trading them along lines suggested by [K. J. Arrow, Rev. Econ. Stud. 31, 91-96 (1964)] and [R. J. Shiller, Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks (OUP, Oxford, 1994)]. These modifications preserve Barro's prescriptions that a government should keep its debt-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and tax rate constant over time and also prescribe that the government insure its primary surplus risk by selling or buying the same number of shares of a Shiller macro security each period.


Assuntos
Governo , Produto Interno Bruto
14.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0300799, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38527046

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In developing countries such as Kenya, minimal attention has been directed towards population based studies on uncorrected refractive error (URE). However, the absence of population based studies, warrants utilization of other avenues to showcase to the stakeholders in eye health the worth of addressing URE. Hence this study estimated the lost productivity to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a result of URE and the national cost required to address visual impairment from URE in Kenya. METHODS: The lost productivity to the GDP for the population aged 16-60 years was calculated. Thereafter the productivity loss of the caregivers of severe visual impaired individuals was computed as a product of the average annual productivity for each caregiver and a 5% productivity loss due to visual impairment. The productivity benefit of correcting refractive error was estimated based on the minimum wage for individuals aged between 16-60 years with URE. Estimation of the national cost of addressing URE was based on spectacle provision cost, cost of training functional clinical refractionists and the cost of establishing vision centres. A cost benefit analysis was undertaken based on the national cost estimates and a factor of 3.5 times. RESULTS: The estimated lost productivity to the GDP due to URE in in Kenya is approximately US$ 671,455,575 -US$ 1,044,486,450 annually for population aged between 16-60 years. The productivity loss of caregivers for the severe visually impaired is approximately US$ 13,882,899 annually. Approximately US$ 246,750,000 is required to provide corrective devices, US$ 413,280- US$ 108,262,300 to train clinical refractionists and US$ 39,800,000 to establish vision centres. The productivity benefit of correcting visual impairment is approximately US$ 41,126,400 annually. Finally, a cost benefit analysis showed a return of US$ 378,918,050 for human resources, US$ 863,625,000 for corrective devices and US$ 139,300,000 for establishment of vision centres. CONCLUSION: The magnitude of productivity loss due to URE in Kenya is significant warranting prioritization of refractive error services by the government and all stakeholders since any investment directed towards addressing URE has the potential to contribute a positive return.


Assuntos
Erros de Refração , Baixa Visão , Pessoas com Deficiência Visual , Humanos , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Produto Interno Bruto , Quênia , Erros de Refração/epidemiologia , Baixa Visão/epidemiologia , Transtornos da Visão , Prevalência
15.
PLoS One ; 19(2): e0296997, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38330030

RESUMO

A dynamic STIRPAT model used in the current study is based on panel data from the eight most populous countries from 1975 to 2020, revealing the nonlinear effects of urbanization routes (percentage of total urbanization, percentage of small cities and percentage of large cities) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Using "Dynamic Display Unrelated Regression (DSUR)" and "Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS)" regressions, the outcomes reflect that percentage of total urbanization and percentage of small cities have an incremental influence on carbon dioxide emissions. However, square percentage of small cities and square percentage of total urbanization have significant adverse effects on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The positive relationship between the percentage of small cities, percentage of total urbanization and CO2 emissions and the negative relationship between the square percentage of small cities, square percentage of total urbanization and CO2 emissions legitimize the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis. The impact of the percentage of large cities on carbon dioxide emissions is significantly negative, while the impact of the square percentage of large cities on carbon dioxide emissions is significantly positive, validating a U-shaped EKC hypothesis. The incremental effect of percentage of small cities and percentage of total urbanization on long-term environmental degradation can provide support for ecological modernization theory. Energy intensity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial growth and transport infrastructure stimulate long-term CO2 emissions. Country-level findings from the AMG estimator support a U-shaped link between the percentage of small cities and CO2 emissions for each country in the entire panel except the United States. In addition, the Dumitrescu and Hulin causality tests yield a two-way causality between emission of carbon dioxide and squared percentage of total urbanization, between the percentage of the large cities and emission of carbon dioxide, and between energy intensity and emission of carbon dioxide. This study proposes renewable energy options and green city-friendly technologies to improve the environmental quality of urban areas.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Urbanização , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Cidades , Produto Interno Bruto , Análise dos Mínimos Quadrados , Desenvolvimento Econômico
16.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 4880, 2024 02 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38418566

RESUMO

Human brucellosis has reemerged in China, with a distinct change in its geographical distribution. The incidence of human brucellosis has significantly risen in inland regions of China. To gain insights into epidemic characteristics and identify factors influencing the geographic spread of human brucellosis, our study utilized the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and interpretable machine learning techniques. The results showed a consistent upward trend in the incidence of human brucellosis, with a significant increase of 8.20% from 2004 to 2021 (95% CI: 1.70, 15.10). The northern region continued to face a serious human situation, with a gradual upward trend. Meanwhile, the western and southern regions have experienced a gradual spread of human brucellosis, encompassing all regions of China over the past decade. Further analysis using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) demonstrated that higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and increased funding for education have the potential to reduce the spread. Conversely, the expansion of human brucellosis showed a positive correlation with bed availability per 1000 individuals, humidity, railway mileage, and GDP. These findings strongly suggest that socioeconomic factors play a more significant role in the spread of human brucellosis than other factors.


Assuntos
Brucelose , Humanos , Brucelose/epidemiologia , Umidade , Produto Interno Bruto , China/epidemiologia , Incidência , Análise Espaço-Temporal
17.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 31(14): 21488-21508, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38393554

RESUMO

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of gross domestic product, energy consumption, and trade openness on carbon emission in Asia. Among the 48 countries in Asia, 42 were included in the analysis, spanning a period of 20 years. Given that Asia is the predominant contributor, accounting for 53% of global emissions as of 2019, a comprehensive examination at both continental and individual country levels becomes imperative. Such an approach aligns with local, regional, and global development agendas, contributing directly and indirectly to climate change mitigation. The analytical techniques employed in this study encompassed panel regression and multiple linear regression, illuminating the specific contributions of each country to the study variables and their impact on carbon emissions. The findings suggest that gross domestic product (13 out of 42 countries), energy consumption (21 out of 42 countries), and trade openness (eight out of 42 countries) have a highly significant impact (p < 0.01) on carbon emissions in Asia. Energy consumption plays a vital role in increasing carbon emissions in Asia, driven by rising populations, urbanisation, and oil and gas production. Policymakers can take several actions such as adopting a carbon pricing system, using sustainable transportation, renewable energy development, and international cooperation within Asia to reach the goal of being carbon neutral by 2050.


Assuntos
Carbono , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Produto Interno Bruto , Carbono/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Ásia
18.
PLoS One ; 19(2): e0291999, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38381771

RESUMO

In Sub Saharan Africa, agriculture's contribution to employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to be higher than other sectors. Policies designed and implemented for the agricultural sector could be an influencing factor to the variations in the contributions of agriculture to the annual national GDP. These policies are believed to have shaped and (some) still shaping the landscape of agriculture and national economy. The study analysed agriculture's GDP contribution during the implementation of various national agricultural policies, and the potential of the policies to foster agrobusiness development in Nigeria between 2000 and 2021. The study adopted mixed-method approach. Primary data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered on 29 purposively sampled state Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) directors across Nigeria. The questionnaire was face-validated by three experts. Reliability test was carryout using Cronbach Alpha approach, which yielded an index of 0.89. Copies of the questionnaire were administered on the respondents through direct contact. Secondary data were collected from the Nigeria's Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, National Bureau of Statistics, and World Bank. Data was analysed with mean, standard deviation, percentages and ANOVA. Findings of the study revealed that the performance of implemented agricultural policies had influence on agricultural sector's percentage contribution to national GDP, and changes in agriculture's GDP contribution had significant impact on national GDP growth. The duration of active life of the policies did not influence their performance, like the Root and Tuber Expansion Programme which lasted longer yet performed less than the National Special Programme on Food Security in terms of improvement in agriculture's GDP contributions. All the policies implemented had several limitations in their ability to foster agribusinesses in Nigeria. The study recommends that future policies should focus on providing sustainable frameworks for developing the business in agriculture through value chain optimisation and the use of the teeming, young, and affordable labour force like China and India did to become global food producers.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Políticas , Nigéria , Produto Interno Bruto , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
19.
PLoS One ; 19(2): e0297180, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38394105

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Gross domestic product (GDP) serves as a crucial economic indicator for measuring a country's economic growth, exhibiting both linear and non-linear trends. This study aims to analyze and propose an efficient and accurate time series approach for modeling and forecasting the GDP annual growth rate (%) of Saudi Arabia, a key financial indicator of the country. METHODOLOGY: Stochastic linear and non-linear time series modeling, along with hybrid approaches, are employed and their results are compared. Initially, conventional linear and nonlinear methods such as ARIMA, Exponential smoothing, TBATS, and NNAR are applied. Subsequently, hybrid models combining these individual time series approaches are utilized. Model diagnostics, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are employed as criteria for model selection to identify the best-performing model. RESULTS: The findings demonstrated that the neural network autoregressive (NNAR) model, as a non-linear approach, outperformed all other models, exhibiting the lowest values of MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The NNAR(5,3) projected the GDP of 1.3% which is close to the projection of IMF benchmark (1.9) for the year 2023. CONCLUSION: The selected model can be employed by economists and policymakers to formulate appropriate policies and plans. This quantitative study provides policymakers with a basis for monitoring fluctuations in GDP growth from 2022 to 2029 and ensuring the sustained progression of GDP beyond 2029. Additionally, this study serves as a guide for researchers to test these approaches in different economic dynamics.


Assuntos
Modelos Estatísticos , Redes Neurais de Computação , Produto Interno Bruto , Fatores de Tempo , Incidência , Previsões
20.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 31(8): 11698-11715, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38224441

RESUMO

Renewable energy has gained significant attention due to the growing concern for environmental sustainability and the high reliance on energy imports in European countries. In this study, we use a two- stage approach to assess renewable energy efficiency (REEF) of European countries. Initially, we employ the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to quantify the efficiency of renewable energy. Subsequently, we investigate the factors influencing REEF between 2005 and 2020. Our findings reveal a generally high level of REEF across European countries, but some countries have become worse in this regard (e.g., France, Ukraine, Russia, Belgium, Germany, Norway, and Serbia). In order to find the causes of these changes, we considered the explanatory variables of gross domestic product (GDP), energy price, renewable energy consumption, information and communications technology (ICT), and industrial value added in a spatial system generalized method of moments (spatial SYS-GMM) model. The findings provide confirmation of the spatial spillover effects of REEF within European countries. The strongest positive effect is related to energy prices. In simpler terms, as energy prices rise, the efficiency of renewable energy has increased in European countries. Additionally, ICT and renewable energy consumption have positive impacts, too. But GDP and industrial value added, have decreasing effects. Based on these findings, we put forth several policy suggestions aimed at enhancing the efficiency of renewable energy in European countries.


Assuntos
Conservação de Recursos Energéticos , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Energia Renovável , Produto Interno Bruto , Sérvia , Dióxido de Carbono/análise
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