Exploratory rasch analysis of a static-99R clinical cohort assessment.

Modern test theory supplements the more prevalent classic methods for assessing test properties. However, such an assessment of the commonly used sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, Static-99R, has yet to be attempted. This study evaluated the psychometric properties of said instrument using Rasch analysis. The clinical cohort assessed consisted of individuals with mental disorders convicted of a sexual offense (N = 146). Results showed that the original ten-item Static­99R did not meet the Rasch model requirements, and revisions of the instrument with seven and nine items each only marginally improved performance. More reliable results could likely have been obtained with a larger, non-clinical sample and a more randomized distribution of missing data. Despite the consistently poor performance of item 3 ("Index non-sexual violence") in all three analyses, reliability was slightly improved by dichotomizing the only two polytomous items in the Static-99R; items 1 ("Age at release from index offense") and 5 ("Prior sexual offenses"). These results may be of interest considering the significant change of splitting the formerly dichotomous item 1 into four different response categories in the revision of Static-99 to Static-99R.

The impact of testosterone-lowering medication on recidivism in individuals convicted of sexual offenses.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of individuals who have committed sexual offences with Testosterone-Lowering Medication (TLM) is a comparatively intrusive kind of intervention, which regularly takes place in coercive contexts. Thus, the question of efficacy, but also the question of who should be treated, when and for how long, are of great importance. METHODS: Recidivism rates of TLM-treated high-risk individuals (+TLM; n = 54) were compared with high-risk individuals treated with psychotherapy only in the same forensic outpatient clinic (-TLM; n = 79). RESULTS: Group differences suggested a higher initial risk of + TLM (e.g. higher ris-assessment, previous convictions). Despite the increased risk, after an average time at risk of six years, +TLM recidivated significantly less often and significantly later than - TLM (27.8% vs. 51.9%). Such an effect was also found for violent (1.9% vs. 15.2%), but not for sexual (5.6% vs. 10.1%) and serious recidivism (5.6% vs. 10.1%), which could be explained partly by the small number of cases. In the course of treatment, TLM proved to be a significant variable for a positive process, whereas a high risk-assessment score indicated a rather negative course. In total, n = 19 individuals had stopped their TLM treatment, of these 31.6% recidivated. CONCLUSION: The results support the efficacy of TLM, particularly in the group of high-risk offenders.

Association between socioeconomic and motherhood characteristics with receiving community-based treatment services among justice-involved young female drug users: a retrospective cohort study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Drug-involved individuals who contact treatment services in Taiwan are mostly driven by criminal justice systems either as an alternative or adjunct to criminal sanctions for a drug offence. With a focus on justice-involved young female drug users, the present study examines the extent to which socioeconomic and motherhood characteristics are associated with receiving deferred prosecution, a scheme diverting drug offenders to community-based addiction treatment. METHODS: We identified a cohort of 5869 women under the age of 30 arrested for using Schedule II drugs (primarily amphetamine-like stimulants) from the 2011-2017 National Police Criminal Records in Taiwan. Information concerning socioeconomic characteristics, pregnancy and live birth history, and deferred prosecution was obtained through linkage with the 2006-2019 National Health Insurance, birth registration, and deferred prosecution datasets. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate the association with stratification by recidivism status. RESULTS: Within six months of arrest, 21% of first-time offenders (n = 2645) received deferred prosecution and 23% received correction-based rehabilitation; the corresponding estimates for recidivists (n = 3224) were 6% and 15%, respectively. Among first-time offenders, low/unstable income was associated with lower odds of deferred prosecution (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.88). For recidivists, those with low/unstable income (aOR = 1.58) or unemployment (aOR = 1.58) had higher odds of correction-based rehabilitation; being pregnant at arrest was linked with reduced odds of deferred prosecution (aOR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.71) and correction-based rehabilitation (aOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: For the young women arrested for drug offences, disadvantaged socioeconomic conditions were generally unfavored by the diversion to treatment in the community. Childbearing upon arrest may lower not only the odds of receiving medical treatment but also correctional intervention. The criminal prosecution policy and process should be informed by female drug offenders' need for treatment and recovery.

Impact of opioid maintenance therapy in the community on re-incarceration in individuals with opioid use disorder-A linked cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Studies have found associations between Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment during incarceration and reduced recidivism among recently released formerly incarcerated persons. However, the role of community-based Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment in reducing recidivism post-release remains less explored. This study examines whether pre-release arranged, prison-to-rehabilitation Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment in the community following release is associated with reduced rates and lengths of re-incarceration among justice-involved individuals with Opioid Use Disorder. METHODS: A retrospective matched cohort study was conducted using linked records of 208 individuals with a history of Opioid Use Disorder and treatment during their incarceration. The primary predictor variable was the duration of Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment, with re-incarceration rates and lengths of stay after re-incarceration being the primary outcomes examined. RESULTS: Analysis showed a significant decrease in re-incarcerations and or lengths of stay in prison among those who have been re-incarcerated and have undergone Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment in the community for >24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment over 24 months may reduce re-incarcerations, and may be significantly associated with a reduction in the length of prison stay for re-incarcerated individuals. The effects were consistent across the overall population and the individuals receiving the treatment. Various other unmeasured factors, including judicial discretion, individual motivation, type of offense, and employment status, could influence this association.

The effectiveness of interventions for offending behaviours in adults with autism spectrum disorders (ASD): a systematic PRISMA review.

Previous research has suggested that the core features of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) may contribute to offending behaviours and increased vulnerability within the Criminal Justice System. To date, there is a paucity of evidence assessing the effectiveness of interventions for offending behaviour in adults with ASD but without co-occurring intellectual disability (ID) across a broad range of forensic settings. The lack of robust evidence is concerning, as limited effectiveness may contribute to an increased likelihood of prolonged incarceration, particularly in the most restrictive settings. A PRISMA systematic review was conducted with a narrative synthesis to: (a) evaluate the evidence of the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing recidivism, (b) assess whether the core features of ASD impact the effectiveness of these interventions, and (c) identify additional factors that may affect the effectiveness of interventions within this population. Seven studies involving ten male participants were identified. The findings suggest that interventions for offending behaviours in adults with ASD without intellectual disability (ID) are largely inadequate, and that core ASD features need to be considered. Additionally, a complex interplay of risk factors potentially impacting intervention effectiveness was suggested. Limitations include heterogeneity across intervention types, measures of effectiveness, and what constitutes effectiveness. Despite the limited number of studies and data quality, the review aligns with a growing body of literature highlighting vulnerability and a need for evidence-based interventions for people with ASD. The review also discusses the broader implications of ineffective interventions.

Immigrant background, incarceration history and recidivism among adults assessed for illicit substance use severity: Findings from a Swedish registry study.

BACKGROUND: In Sweden, as in other countries, individuals with immigrant backgrounds are disproportionately represented within the incarcerated population. This study examined the association between immigrant background and future incarceration for individuals assessed for illicit substance use severity, while considering their prior incarceration history. METHODS: Using data from Swedish Addiction Severity Index (ASI) assessments linked to register data from Statistics Sweden, we employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression models to analyse differences in incarceration histories within five years before and after ASI assessments based on immigrant backgrounds. Additionally, Cox proportional-hazard models were used to assess the likelihood of post-assessment incarceration among these groups. RESULTS: Immigrant background was positively associated with pre- and post-assessment incarceration. First- and second-generation immigrants from the Global South had longer periods of incarceration in the five years before assessments compared to native Swedes. Post-assessment, first-generation immigrants showed longer periods of incarceration. Survival analyses supported these findings, indicating a higher risk of prolonged post-assessment incarceration among all immigrant groups, particularly first-generation immigrants from the Global South. CONCLUSION: Among individuals assessed for illicit drug use within Swedish municipalities, those with immigrant backgrounds faced higher incarceration risks, even after controlling for substance use severity and prior incarceration. Tailored interventions and support systems are vital to prevent re-entry into the criminal justice system. Timely actions can break re-offending cycles, redirecting paths away from reoffending and towards legal reintegration, thereby reducing incarceration and recidivism rates.

The burden for clinical services of persons with an intellectual disability or mental disorder convicted of criminal offences: A birth cohort study of 14,605 persons followed to age 64.

BACKGROUND: Intellectual disability (ID), schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD), bipolar disorder (BD), substance use disorder (SUD), and other mental disorders (OMDs) are associated with increased risks of criminality relative to sex-matched individuals without these conditions (NOIDMD). To resource psychiatric, addiction, and social services so as to provide effective treatments, further information is needed about the size of sub-groups convicted of crimes, recidivism, timing of offending, antecedents, and correlates. Stigma of persons with mental disorders could potentially be dramatically reduced if violence was prevented. METHODS: A birth cohort of 14,605 persons was followed to age 64 using data from Swedish national health, criminal, and social registers. RESULTS: Percentages of group members convicted of violence differed significantly: males NOIDMD, 7.3%, ID 29.2%, SSD 38.6%, BD 30.7%; SUD 44.0%, and OMD 19.3%; females NOIDMD 0.8%, ID 7.7%, SSD 11.2%, BD 2.4%, SD 17.0%, and OMD 2.1%. Violent recidivism was high. Most violent offenders in the diagnostic groups were also convicted of non-violent crimes. Prior to first diagnosis, convictions (violent or non-violent) had been acquired by over 90% of the male offenders and two-thirds of the female offenders. Physical victimization, adult comorbid SUD, childhood conduct problems, and adolescent substance misuse were each associated with increased risks of offending. CONCLUSION: Sub-groups of cohort members with ID or mental disorders were convicted of violent and non-violent crimes to age 64 suggesting the need for treatment of primary disorders and for antisocial/aggressive behavior. Many patients engaging in violence could be identified at first contact with clinical services.

A pilot study regarding the feasibility and efficacy of an outpatient treatment program for young adult high-risk offenders (YAHOP).

This pilot study examines whether the Young Adult Habitual Offender Program (YAHOP), an intensive and outpatient program, is related to a reduction in the general risk of recidivism, common forensic symptomology as well as cognitive distortions. The program integrity (PI) was assessed, with the intent to explore the relationship between the level of PI and any changes in several outcome variables. Additionally, the study examines whether participants with a migration background benefitted equally from YAHOP compared to participants with a native Dutch background. The sample comprised n = 90 high-risk young adult offenders. Results show a decrease in general risk of recidivism. The dynamic risk factors delinquent social network, insufficient impulse control, and dysfunctional problem-solving skills also show a decrease, as well as the forensic symptoms of aggression and anger. Effect sizes are small, except for anger, which has a medium effect size. We found no change in cognitive distortions and problematic substance use. YAHOP shows to be responsive and culturally sensitive, as the participants with a migration background show a significant decrease in general risk of recidivism. No moderator analysis was conducted due to an overall low level of program integrity. After improving program integrity, full-scale quantitative research is needed as YAHOP has the potential as a promising desistance program for high-risk offenders, as in this study the 56 non-completers were also included.

Reoffending after convictions related to child sexual exploitation material: Data from the German Federal Central Criminal Register.

BACKGROUND: As digitalization has made it easier to produce, copy, and distribute child sexual exploitation material (CSEM), the possession and distribution of child sexual abuse images has become more widespread. Thus, the need to assess the risk of subsequent sex offenses - above all, sexual abuse of children by individuals who have been convicted of CSEM offenses - becomes more and more important. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the respective size of two groups of offenders: first, offenders who commit CSEM offenses without ever crossing the line to sexual abuse of children, and second, so-called crossover offenders, that is, individuals who commit CSEM offenses and engage in child sexual abuse. Identification of differences between these two groups facilitates analyzing the risk that someone convicted of a CSEM offense might in the future sexually assault children. METHOD: We used data from the German Federal Central Criminal Register (Bundeszentralregister), a data set that includes information about all persons convicted of any criminal offense, including "child pornography" offenses, by a court in Germany. RESULTS: For persons convicted of CSEM offenses only, with no additional concurring sex offenses, the rate of subsequent convictions for child sexual abuse is very low (1.1 % after a six-year follow-up period, adult offenders). This risk is even lower if offenders are older than 30 years of age, and it is slightly higher for offenders with previous offense-specific convictions (i.e., previous sex offenses). CONCLUSIONS: The mere existence of a conviction for a CSEM offense is not an indication that the convicted person poses a significant risk of committing child sexual abuse. To pinpoint such a risk more accurately, the following factors should be examined: the existence of offense-specific prior records, the presence of crossover-offending in the form of concurring offenses, and the age of the offender.

Validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in a community sexual offense outpatient setting.

The present study examined the convergent, structural, and predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) scores in a sample of 200 men on community supervision for sexual offenses, attending forensic community outpatient services and followed up an average 8.6 years. The VRS-SO and two additional dynamic sexual recidivism risk measures-STABLE 2007 and Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS)-were coded archivally from clinic files; Static-99R ratings were extracted. Recidivism data were captured from Royal Canadian Mounted Police records. VRS-SO static, dynamic, and total scores demonstrated expected patterns of convergence with total and subscale scores of the risk measures. Moreover, a confirmatory factor analysis of the VRS-SO dynamic item scores demonstrated acceptable model fit for a correlated three-factor solution consistent with prior confirmatory factor analyses. Discrimination analyses demonstrated that VRS-SO dynamic and total scores and STABLE 2007 scores had large prediction effects for 5-year sexual recidivism (area under the curves [AUCs] = .71-.72) while SOTIPS had a medium effect for this outcome (AUC = .67); the measures yielded medium to large effects for nonsexual recidivism. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that VRS-SO dynamic, Sexual Deviance factor, and SOTIPS scores each incrementally predicted sexual recidivism controlling for Static-99R or VRS-SO static factor scores. VRS-SO calibration analyses demonstrated that expected or predicted 5-year sexual recidivism rates showed generally close correspondence to the rates predicted or observed in the present community sample. Results support the psychometric properties of the VRS-SO, a sexual violence risk assessment and treatment planning measure, to a community outpatient sample. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Investigating racial disparities in violence risk assessment using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3 (SARA-V3): Structured professional judgment ratings and recidivism among Indigenous and non-Indigenous individuals.

Racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes are widely observed. In Canada, such disparities are particularly evident between Indigenous and non-Indigenous persons. The role of formal risk assessment in contributing to such disparities remains a topic of interest to many, but critical analysis has almost exclusively focused on actuarial or statistical risk measures. Recent research suggests that ratings from other common tools, based on the structured professional judgment model, can also demonstrate racial disparities. This study examined risk assessments produced using a widely used structured professional judgment tool, the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3, among a sample of 190 individuals with histories of intimate partner violence. We examined the relationships among race, risk factors, summary risk ratings, and recidivism while also investigating whether participants' racial identity influenced the likelihood of incurring formal sanctions for reported violence. Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3 risk factor totals and summary risk ratings were associated with new violent charges. Indigenous individuals were assessed as demonstrating more risk factors and were more likely to be rated as high risk, even after controlling for summed risk factor totals and prior convictions. They were also more likely to recidivate and to have a history of at least one reported act of violence that did not result in formal sanctions. The results suggest that structured professional judgment guidelines can produce disparate results across racial groups. The disparities observed may reflect genuine differences in the likelihood of recidivism, driven by psychologically meaningful risk factors which have origins in deep-rooted systemic and contextual factors. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Too risky to use, or too risky not to? Lessons learned from over 30 years of research on forensic risk assessment with Indigenous persons.

Indigenous peoples are overrepresented in correctional systems internationally, reflecting a history of systemic racism and colonial oppression, and the practice of risk assessment with this population has been a focus of legal and sociopolitical controversy. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk assessment literature comparing Indigenous and non-Indigenous (White majority) groups. We retrieved 91 studies featuring 22 risk tools and 15 risk/need/cultural domains (N = 59,693, Indigenous; N = 237,729, non-Indigenous/White) and four documents identifying culturally relevant factors. Most measures demonstrated moderate predictive validity but often had significant ethnoracial differences, particularly for static measures. The Service Planning Instrument/Youth Assessment Screening Inventory, Level of Service Inventory youth variants, Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and Youth Version, and the Violence Risk Scale and its Sexual Offense version had the strongest predictive validity and least ethnoracial discrepancy. The Static Factors Assessment and Dynamic Factors Identification and Analysis-Revised had the weakest predictive validity. For Indigenous persons, the strongest individual predictors of recidivism were low education/employment, substance abuse, antisocial pattern, and poor community functioning, while mitigating factors that predicted decreased recidivism were measures of risk change (i.e., from culturally integrated programs combining mainstream and traditional healing approaches), cultural engagement/connectedness, and protective factors. In practice, static measures need to be supplemented with dynamic ones, and assessors should select measures with at least moderate predictive validity and ideally the least ethnoracial bias. These conclusions are tempered by the quantity and quality of the literature coupled with the circumstance that some study authors have coauthored tools in this review. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Psychopathy Scores Predict Recidivism in High-risk Youth: A Five-year Follow-up Study.

Psychopathic traits have been associated with rearrest in adolescents involved in the criminal legal system. Much of the prior work has focused on White samples, short follow-up windows, and relatively low-risk youth. The current study aimed to evaluate the utility of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) for predicting general and violent felony recidivism in a large sample of high-risk, predominantly Hispanic/Latino, male adolescents (n = 254) with a five-year follow-up period. Results indicated higher PCL:YV scores and lower full-scale estimated IQ scores were significantly associated with a shorter time to felony and violent felony rearrest. These effects generalized to Hispanic/Latino adolescents (n = 193)-a group that faces disproportionate risk of being detained or committed to juvenile correctional facilities in the U.S. These results suggest that expert-rated measures of psychopathic traits and IQ are reliable predictors of subsequent felony and violent felony rearrest among high-risk male adolescents.

Pharmacological interventions for alcohol misuse in correctional settings: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of alcohol use disorder (AUD) is estimated to be 10 times higher amongst individuals in the criminal justice system than the general population. Alcohol use is also one of the strongest modifiable risk factors for recidivism. One intervention that has been shown to be effective in reducing alcohol consumption in the general population is medication-assisted treatment (MAT), and this systematic review synthesized the existing evidence on MAT for AUD in correctional settings. METHODS: Empirical, peer-reviewed studies on approved medications for AUD in correctional populations were searched in major databases. One hundred sixty-two articles were initially screened and 14 eligible articles were included in the final review. Four articles examined disulfiram, and 10 articles examined naltrexone. RESULTS: The studies on disulfiram were considerably older than those on naltrexone, predating contemporary scientific standards. Disulfiram in combination with substantial contingencies in a supervised setting significantly reduced alcohol-related measures of consumption and recidivism and had acceptable safety and tolerability. All naltrexone studies showed significant reductions in alcohol-related measures, but effects on recidivism were mixed. The naltrexone studies indicated that it was highly acceptable and well tolerated. In addition, offenders receiving naltrexone had significantly greater medication adherence, treatment attendance, and treatment duration than with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: A small number of studies on pharmacological interventions for AUD in the correctional population suggest that MAT is effective in reducing alcohol consumption, although results on recidivism are mixed. On balance, the evidence was more supportive of naltrexone in reducing alcohol-related outcomes than disulfiram and it may also be a more feasible intervention in correctional settings. Further research on MAT to address AUD in correctional populations with larger sample sizes, longer duration, and in combination with behavioral interventions is warranted.

People underestimate the errors made by algorithms for credit scoring and recidivism prediction but accept even fewer errors.

This study provides the first representative analysis of error estimations and willingness to accept errors in a Western country (Germany) with regards to algorithmic decision-making systems (ADM). We examine people's expectations about the accuracy of algorithms that predict credit default, recidivism of an offender, suitability of a job applicant, and health behavior. Also, we ask whether expectations about algorithm errors vary between these domains and how they differ from expectations about errors made by human experts. In a nationwide representative study (N = 3086) we find that most respondents underestimated the actual errors made by algorithms and are willing to accept even fewer errors than estimated. Error estimates and error acceptance did not differ consistently for predictions made by algorithms or human experts, but people's living conditions (e.g. unemployment, household income) affected domain-specific acceptance (job suitability, credit defaulting) of misses and false alarms. We conclude that people have unwarranted expectations about the performance of ADM systems and evaluate errors in terms of potential personal consequences. Given the general public's low willingness to accept errors, we further conclude that acceptance of ADM appears to be conditional to strict accuracy requirements.

Comparing recidivism rates among domestically violent men enrolled in ACTV versus Duluth/CBT.

Objective: The goal of the present study was to replicate and extend published preliminary evidence demonstrating that a relatively new treatment (Achieving Change through Value-Based Behavior [ACTV]) for men convicted of domestic violence significantly reduces recidivism compared to the standard treatment offered across the United States (the Duluth Model and/or cognitive-behavioral approaches). Method: Men convicted of domestic assault (DA) and court-mandated to a Batterers Intervention Program [N = 725; Mage = 34.9 years (SDage = 10.37 years)] were assigned to attend ACTV or treatment-as-usual (TAU). Participants were predominantly Black (63.3%). Recidivism, defined as any new convictions, any violent convictions, and any DA convictions, was examined up to 5 years posttreatment. Only men classified as medium or high risk were included. Results: Men in TAU were more likely to receive any conviction (95% CI [1.61, 4.40]), a violent conviction (95% CI [1.67, 9.60]), and a DA conviction (95% CI [1.36, 4.90]) compared to men in ACTV. Time to new conviction posttreatment was shorter for men in TAU versus ACTV (95% CI [2.16, 4.11]). Finally, the risk of receiving any new conviction (95% CI [1.46, 7.11]) was more strongly associated with noncompletion for TAU than ACTV participants. Conclusions: ACTV shows great promise for reducing recidivism compared to TAU. The present study represents the first time this intervention has been implemented in a state other than where it was developed and provides initial evidence for its generalizability and robustness. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Preventing school-based arrest and recidivism through prearrest diversion: Outcomes of the Philadelphia police school diversion program.

OBJECTIVES: Created to combat the school-to-prison pipeline, the Philadelphia Police School Diversion Program offers voluntary community-based services to eligible youth accused of minor school-based offeses in lieu of arrest. This study evaluated program effectiveness in accomplishing goals related to reductions in school-based arrests, serious behavioral incidents, and recidivism. HYPOTHESES: We expected the annual number of school-based arrests in Philadelphia schools to decrease over the program's first 5 years and predicted that the annual number of serious behavioral incidents would not increase. Further, we expected that diverted youth-compared to youth arrested in schools the year before Diversion Program implementation-would have significantly lower rates of recidivism arrests in the 2 years following their school-based incidents. METHOD: Using a quasi-experimental design, we examined data from 2,302 public school students (67.0% male; 76.1% Black; age range: 10-22 years) who were either diverted from arrest through the Diversion Program or arrested in Philadelphia schools in the year prior to Diversion Program implementation. We compared rate of recidivism arrest, number of arrests, and time to arrest between diverted and arrested youth. We also used district-wide descriptive statistics to examine 5-year trends in school-based arrests and serious behavioral incidents. RESULTS: Since program implementation, the annual number of school-based arrests in Philadelphia has declined by 84% and the number of serious behavioral incidents has declined by 34%. Diverted youth demonstrated less recidivism than arrested youth in the 2 years following their initial incident; however, after propensity score matching, we no longer observed significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate that a prearrest diversion program can safely reduce school-based arrests and suggest a need for future research regarding the role of demographic and incident-related characteristics in recidivism outcomes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Updated 5-year and new 10-year sexual recidivism rate norms for Static-99R with routine/complete samples.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop new 10-year recidivism rate norms as well as to update 5-year norms for the Static-99R risk tool for routine/complete samples. We also present the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates from these new 10-year norms for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. Hypotheses: We hypothesized that absolute-recidivism base rates (B02; i.e., the intercept centered on the median score of 2) would vary; however, the relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination; B1) would be stable across samples. In addition, compared with the estimated sexual recidivism rates with a fixed 5-year follow-up time, the estimated rates with a fixed 10-year follow-up time would be expected to be consistently higher across the Static-99R scores. Method: The current study included 12 independent samples (N = 7,224 for the 5-year recidivism rate norms; N = 1,599 [k = 6] for the 10-year norms) classified as routine/complete samples, that is, relatively random samples from a correctional system. Logistic regression parameters (B02 and B1) across the studies were aggregated using fixed-effect meta-analyses. Results: There was statistically significant variability in the base rates (B02), whereas the between-sample variability in the relative-risk parameters (B1) was no more than would be expected by chance. As expected, the 10-year base rates were approximately 1.5 times higher than the 5-year base rates (7.20% vs. 4.58%), and the extrapolated 20-year sexual recidivism rates were approximately double the observed 5-year sexual recidivism rates. Conclusions: The current study provides empirical evidence to estimate 5- and 10-year sexual recidivism rates based on Static-99R total scores. Evaluators who are especially concerned about long-term sexual recidivism risk (e.g., civil commitment) can report the expected sexual recidivism risk based on the new 10-year norms and the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

A scalable empathic supervision intervention to mitigate recidivism from probation and parole.

Incarceration is a pervasive issue in the United States that is enormously costly to families, communities, and society at large. The path from prison back to prison may depend on the relationship a person has with their probation or parole officer (PPO). If the relationship lacks appropriate care and trust, violations and recidivism (return to jail or prison) may be more likely to occur. Here, we test whether an "empathic supervision" intervention with PPOs-that aims to reduce collective blame against and promote empathy for the perspectives of adults on probation or parole (APPs)-can reduce rates of violations and recidivism. The intervention highlights the unreasonable expectation that all APPs will reoffend (collective blame) and the benefits of empathy-valuing APPs' perspectives. Using both within-subject (monthly official records for 10 mo) and between-subject (treatment versus control) comparisons in a longitudinal study with PPOs in a large US city (NPPOs = 216; NAPPs =∼20,478), we find that the empathic supervision intervention reduced collective blame against APPs 10 mo postintervention and reduced between-subject violations and recidivism, a 13% reduction that would translate to less taxpayer costs if scaled. Together, these findings illustrate that very low-cost psychological interventions that target empathy in relationships can be cost effective and combat important societal outcomes in a lasting manner.

Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications.

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime.