SARS to novel coronavirus - old lessons and new lessons.

The response to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China suggests that many of the lessons from the 2003 SARS epidemic have been implemented and the response improved as a consequence. Nevertheless some questions remain and not all lessons have been successful. The national and international response demonstrates the complex link between public health, science and politics when an outbreak threatens to impact on global economies and reputations. The unprecedented measures implemented in China are a bold attempt to control the outbreak - we need to understand their effectiveness to balance costs and benefits for similar events in the future.

Economic Cost of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Associated to Influenza in Colombian Children: A Single Setting Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is considered a leading public health problem because its large economic burden of disease worldwide, especially in low-and middle-income countries, such as Colombia. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the economic costs of influenza-confirmed patients in a pediatric hospital in Cartagena, Colombia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective costing analysis. We estimated the direct (direct medical and out-of-pocket expenditures) and indirect costs for influenza-confirmed severe acute respiratory infection cases from a societal perspective. Total economic costs were calculated adding direct medical costs, out-of-pocket expenditures, and indirect costs owing to loss of productivity of caregivers. Mean, median, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and interquartile range (IQR) of costs were measured. All costs are reported in USD ($1.00 = COP$2000.7) RESULTS: Forty-four cases were included in the analysis: 30 had influenza B, 10 influenza A and B, and 4 influenza AH1N1. Thirty patients were hospitalized in the general ward, 14 went to the intensive care unit. The average duration of stay was ∼9 days (95% CI, 6.3-11.5). The median direct medical cost for hospitalized case in general ward was $743.50 (IQR $590.20-$1404.60) and in intensive care unit $4669.80 (IQR $1614.60-$7801.50). The economic cost per hospitalized case was $1826.10 (IQR $1343.30-$2376.50); direct medical costs represented 93.8% of this cost. The median indirect cost was $82.10 (IQR $41.10-$133.40) and the median out-of-pocket expenditure per case was $45.70 (IQR $29.50-$64.90). CONCLUSIONS: Severe acute respiratory infection is an important source of economic burden for the health system, families, and society in Colombia. Seasonal influenza vaccination should be strengthened to prevent more cases and save economic resources.

How change of public transportation usage reveals fear of the SARS virus in a city.

The outbreaks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003 resulted in unprecedented impacts on people's daily life. One of the most significant impacts to people is the fear of contacting the SARS virus while engaging daily routine activity. Here we use data from daily underground ridership in Taipei City and daily reported new SARS cases in Taiwan to model the dynamics of the public fear of the SARS virus during the wax and wane of the SARS period. We found that for each reported new SARS case there is an immediate loss of about 1200 underground ridership (the fresh fear). These daily loss rates dissipate to the following days with an e-folding time of about 28 days, reflecting the public perception on the risk of contacting SARS virus when traveling with the underground system (the residual fear). About 50% of daily ridership was lost during the peak of the 2003 SARS period, compared with the loss of 80% daily ridership during the closure of the underground system after Typhoon Nari, the loss of 50-70% ridership due to the closure of the governmental offices and schools during typhoon periods, and the loss of 60% daily ridership during Chinese New Year holidays.

The determinants of Chinese provincial government health expenditures: evidence from 2002-2006 data.

There is great divergence in provincial government health expenditures in China. Real per capita provincial government health expenditures (GHE) over the period 2002-2006 are examined using panel regression analysis. Key determinants of real per capita provincial GHE are real provincial per capita general budget revenue, real provincial per capita transfers from the central government, the proportion of provincial population under age 15, urban employee basic health insurance coverage, and proportion of urban population. Roughly equal and relatively low elasticities of budget revenue and transfers imply that the GHE is a necessity rather than a luxury good, and transfers have yet to become efficient instruments for the fair allocation of health resources by policy makers. Moreover, severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak has increased the GHE, but we find no statistical evidence that provincial GHE have fluctuated according to the public health status.

A cost-based comparison of quarantine strategies for new emerging diseases.

A classical epidemiological framework is used to provide a preliminary cost analysis of the effects of quarantine and isolation on the dynamics of infectious diseases for which no treatment or immediate diagnosis tools are available. Within this framework we consider the cost incurred from the implementation of three types of dynamic control strategies. Taking the context of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong as an example, we use a simple cost function to compare the total cost of each mixed (quarantine and isolation) control strategy from a public health resource allocation perspective. The goal is to extend existing epi-economics methodology by developing a theoretical framework of dynamic quarantine strategies aimed at emerging diseases, by drawing upon the large body of literature on the dynamics of infectious diseases. We find that the total cost decreases with increases in the quarantine rates past a critical value, regardless of the resource allocation strategy. In the case of a manageable outbreak resources must be used early to achieve the best results whereas in case of an unmanageable outbreak, a constant-effort strategy seems the best among our limited plausible sets.

The economic impact of SARS in Beijing, China.

OBJECTIVE: To document the impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Beijing on indicators of social and economic activity. METHODS: Associations between time series of daily and monthly SARS cases and deaths and volume of public train, airplane and cargo transport, tourism, household consumption patterns and gross domestic product growth in Beijing were investigated using the cross-correlation function. RESULTS: Significant correlation coefficients were found for all indicators except wholesale accounts and expenditures on necessities, with the most significant correlations occurring with a delay of 1 day to 1 month. CONCLUSIONS: Especially leisure activities, local and international transport and tourism were affected by SARS particularly in May 2003. Much of this consumption was merely postponed; but irrecoverable losses to the tourist sector alone were estimated at about US$ 1.4 bn, or 300 times the cost of treatment for SARS cases in Beijing.

Predictive factors of psychological disorder development during recovery following SARS outbreak.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate strategies for broad mass isolation during outbreaks of infectious diseases. DESIGN: A survey using a self-administered questionnaire was conducted on 300 printing company workers in Beijing, China, which was under mass isolation following the 2003 SARS outbreak, in the 7-8 months after the isolation was lifted. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Individuals with psychological disorders were classified on the basis of scores on the 30-item General Health Questionnaire during the recovery period. Psychological disorders were observed in 49 of 187 respondents (26.2%; 95% CI = 20.2, 32.7). RESULTS: The predicting factor with the highest correlation was income reduction, with an odds ratio of 25.0. Other items obtained were gender, range of activities, eating restrictions, restrictions in going out, disinfection of clothing, and infection control, with odds ratios of 3.2, 5.5, 3.9, 3.2, 0.2, and 0.1, respectively, and the contribution ratio was 87.7%. CONCLUSION: Securing income is suggested to be important in future strategies.

The economic impact of SARS: how does the reality match the predictions?

OBJECTIVES: To perform a retrospective analysis of the macro-economic impact of the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. METHODS: As several years have now passed, it is possible to interrogate national statistics that have become available since the outbreak to provide a more accurate estimate of the actual macro-economic impact of SARS. National statistics were examined for anomalies that corresponded to the timing of the SARS outbreak and, where possible, the size of any gain or loss found estimated. RESULTS: Estimates and models produced at the time of the outbreak suggested that SARS could have a catastrophic effect on the global economy. Our analysis suggests that the scale of the SARS impact on affected economies was far smaller than suggested by contemporary media reports and model estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise holds important lessons for estimating the economic impact of future outbreaks -- such as pandemic influenza -- and measures to control or prevent them. We suggest that further work is needed to develop a more comprehensive macro-economic model able to more accurately estimate the relative cost and effect of a global response to outbreaks of international concern. The implications of our findings are discussed in the light of a prospective influenza pandemic.

Stigmatized ethnicity, public health, and globalization.

The prejudicial linking of infection with ethnic minority status has a long-established history, but in some ways this association may have intensified under the contemporary circumstances of the "new public health" and globalization. This study analyzes this conflation of ethnicity and disease victimization by considering the stigmatization process that occurred during the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Toronto. The attribution of stigma during the SARS outbreak occurred in multiple and overlapping ways informed by: (i) the depiction of images of individuals donning respiratory masks; (ii) employment status in the health sector; and (iii) Asian-Canadian and Chinese-Canadian ethnicity. In turn, stigmatization during the SARS crisis facilitated a moral panic of sorts in which racism at a cultural level was expressed and rationalized on the basis of a rhetoric of the new public health and anti-globalization sentiments. With the former, an emphasis on individualized self-protection, in the health sense, justified the generalized avoidance of those stigmatized. In relation to the latter, in the post-9/11 era, avoidance of the stigmatized other was legitimized on the basis of perceiving the SARS threat as a consequence of the mixing of different people predicated by economic and cultural globalization.

Perception of benefits and costs during SARS outbreak: An 18-month prospective study.

In this study, the authors examined perceived benefits and costs of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Mixed accounts of benefits and costs, rather than exclusive accounts of only benefits or costs, were proposed to be characterized by nondefensiveness and enduring changes in psychosocial resources. Participants were 70 SARS recoverers, 59 family members of SARS recoverers, and 172 healthy adults residing in Hong Kong--a SARS-affected region. Results show that participants giving an exclusive account of benefits had higher levels of defensiveness than those giving a mixed account and those giving an exclusive account of costs. Only the perceived impact of benefits given in mixed accounts were related to future accruements in personal and social resources over an 18-month period.

A loophole in international quarantine procedures disclosed during the SARS crisis.

This study describes a loophole in the international quarantine system during the recent Asian severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. Specifically, that of travelers disguising symptoms of respiratory tract infection at international airports, in order to board aircraft to return to their home countries-notwithstanding the infection risks this involves to others. High medical fees for treatment to non-residents in epidemic areas were found to be the main cause for this behaviour. This phenomenon revealed a loophole in the control mechanisms of international quarantine procedures, letting travelers carrying a highly contagious virus slip by undetected and causing possible multi-country outbreaks of communicable diseases. Clinical evidence collected from medical records at medical centers can highlight this oversight.

Managing febrile respiratory illnesses during a hypothetical SARS outbreak.

Since the World Health Organization declared the global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) contained in July 2003, new cases have periodically reemerged in Asia. This situation has placed hospitals and health officials worldwide on heightened alert. In a future outbreak, rapidly and accurately distinguishing SARS from other common febrile respiratory illnesses (FRIs) could be difficult. We constructed a decision-analysis model to identify the most efficient strategies for managing undifferentiated FRIs within a hypothetical SARS outbreak in New York City during the season of respiratory infections. If establishing reliable epidemiologic links were not possible, societal costs would exceed 2.0 billion US dollars per month. SARS testing with existing polymerase chain reaction assays would have harmful public health and economic consequences if SARS made up <0.1% of circulating FRIs. Increasing influenza vaccination rates among the general population before the onset of respiratory season would save both money and lives.