Riesgo de contagio de sarampion para un viajero chileno en 2017 / Calculating the risk of acquiring measles of chileans traveling abroad

ABSTRACT

Background: There is always a risk of importing infectious diseases when travelling abroad. Aim: To estimate the effective risk of a Chilean of acquiring measles during a travel by countries where measles outbreaks have been reported, considering the present level of immunity in the country. Material and Methods: Previously established mathematical models using differential equations were applied to calculate the risk of acquiring measles of people traveling to endemic areas. Results: The probability of acquiring measles of a voyager is 8.11 x 10-8. Conclusions: These estimations help decision making about preventive measures for travelers to endemic measles areas.