Estimation of indirect losses caused by disruption of lifeline service : A pilot study of the Memphis light, gas and water system

ABSTRACT

A general methodology for estimating the indirect losses caused by a disruption of lifeline service is presented. This methodology is different from previous approaches in that it attempts to incorporate local data on lifeline usage patterns and detailed information on regional economics into the analysis. Although the analysis is presented using natural gas as the pilot system, the methodology is general enough to have application for other lifeline systems. Since the conduct of this study is part of a large National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER) effort that involves multiple investigators, parts of the analysis are still being perfomed. Therefore, what is presented in this paper is a snapshot of the analysis with particular focus on model development. Models for natural gas usage, economic productivity and natural gas outage are presented. In order to provide the reader with some understanding of how the results of the analysis will feed into the overall loss assessment procedure, a general discussion of the methodology is presented along with a discussion of future activities. This study is part of the Urban Seismic Risk Project that is being sponsored in whole by the NCEER.(AU)