A simplified model for assessing secondary loss impacts associated with oil and natural gas pipeline failures during earthquakes

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses the results of a preliminary study to estimate the secondary and regional impact of oil and natural gas system disruption during earthquakes. Simplified models have been developed which approximate order-of-magnitude secondary losses. In this study, secondary loss is defined as business interruption costs. To demonstrate the methodology, the models are applied to the New Madrid Seismic Zone. A comparison of the present results with those published in a recent Applied Technology Council report (ATC-25) indicate that the simplified models provide a reasonable approximation of business interruption losses associated with the disruption of oil and natural gas supply. This methodology can be used in cases where little or no data exists on the locations of critical lifeline systems, or where rapid evaluations of business interruption losses are needed. The results presented here represent findings from a previous Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) study and an ongoing study for the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER).(AU)