Potenciales biomarcadores predictores de mortalidad en pacientes COVID-19 en el Servicio de Urgencias / Potential biomarkers predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients in the Emergency Department

RESUMEN

OBJETIVO: Identificar qué biomarcadores realizados en la primera analítica de urgencias ayudan a estratificar según riesgo de mortalidad a pacientes COVID 19. MÉTODO: Estudio observacional descriptivo y transversal realizado con datos recogidos de los pacientes con sospecha de COVID-19 en el Servicio de Urgencias del 24 de febrero al 16 de marzo del 2020. Se realizó el estudio univariante y multivariante para encontrar los marcadores independientes de mortalidad y calcular el riesgo mediante la construcción de una escala de gravedad. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 163 pacientes de los que fallecieron 33 y 29 de ellos resultaron positivos para la prueba PCR COVID-19. Obtuvimos como posibles factores para conformar el score de riesgo de mortalidad edad>75 años ((OR ajustada=12,347, IC95%: 4,138-36,845 p = 0.001), leucocitos totales> 11.000 cel/mm3 (OR ajustada=2,649, IC95%: 0,879-7,981 p = 0,083), glucosa> 126 mg/dL (OR ajustada=3,716, IC95%: 1,247-11,074 p = 0,018) y creatinina>1,1 mg/dL (OR ajustada= 2,566, IC95%: 0,889-7,403, p = 0,081). Este score se denominó COVEB (COVID, Edad, perfil Básico analítico) con un AUC 0,874 (IC95%: 0,816-0,933, p < 0.001; punto de corte= 1 (sensibilidad= 89,66% (IC95%: 72,6%-97,8%), especificidad= 75,59% (IC95%: 67,2%-82,8%). Un score < 1 posee un valor predictivo negativo = 100% (IC95%: 93,51%-100%) y un valor predictivo positivo = 18,59% (IC95%: 12,82%-25,59%). CONCLUSIONES: Las escalas clínicas de gravedad, los biomarcadores de función renal, los parámetros del recuento leucocitario, el ratio neutrófilos totales/linfocitos y procalcitonina son factores de riesgo tempranos de mortalidad. Destacan las variables edad, glucosa, creatinina y leucocitos totales como mejores predictores de mortalidad. Un score COVEB< 1 indica con un 100% de probabilidad, que el paciente con sospecha de COVID-19 no va a fallecer en los próximos 30 días

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Identify which biomarkers performed in the first emergency analysis help to stratify COVID-19 patients according to mortality risk. METHOD: Observational, descriptive and cross-sectional study performed with data collected from patients with suspected COVID-19 in the Emergency Department from February 24 to March 16, 2020. The univariate and multivariate study was performed to find independent mortality markers and calculate risk by building a severity score. RESULTS: A total of 163 patients were included, of whom 33 died and 29 of them were positive for the COVID-19 PCR test. We obtained as possible factors to conform the Mortality Risk Score age> 75 years ((adjusted OR = 12,347, 95% CI: 4,138-36,845 p = 0.001), total leukocytes> 11,000 cells / mm3 (adjusted OR = 2,649, 95% CI: 0.879-7.981 p = 0.083), glucose> 126 mg / dL (adjusted OR = 3.716, 95% CI: 1.247-11.074 p = 0.018) and creatinine> 1.1 mg / dL (adjusted OR = 2.566, 95% CI: 0.889- 7.403, p = 0.081) This score was called COVEB (COVID, Age, Basic analytical profile) with an AUC 0.874 (95% CI: 0.816-0.933, p <0.001; Cut-off point = 1 (sensitivity = 89.66 % (95% CI: 72.6% -97.8%), specificity = 75.59% (95% CI: 67.2% -82.8%). A score <1 has a negative predictive value = 100% (95% CI: 93.51% -100%) and a positive predictive value = 18.59% (95% CI: 12.82% -25.59%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical severity scales, kidney function biomarkers, white blood cell count parameters, the total neutrophils / total lymphocytes ratio and procalcitonin are early risk factors for mortality. The variables age, glucose, creatinine and total leukocytes stand out as the best predictors of mortality. A COVEB score <1 indicates with a 100% probability that the patient with suspected COVID-19 will not die in the next 30 days