Prognostic factors in advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients-receiving second-line treatment: a single institution experience

ABSTRACT

Background Second-line (2L) treatments for advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) achieve a modest benefit at the expense of potential toxicity. In the absence of predictive factors of response, the identification of prognostic factors could help in the therapeutic decisions-making. The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic factors associated with shorter survival in patients with advanced PDAC who received 2L treatment. Methods We conducted a single institution retrospective study, which included all patients with advanced PDAC who received 2L treatment between September 2006 and February 2020 at La Paz University Hospital, Madrid (Spain). Significant variables in the logistic regression model were used to create a prognostic score. Results We included 108 patients. The median overall survival (OS) was 5.10 months (95%CI 4.02–6.17). In the multivariate analysis, time to progression (TTP) shorter than 4 months after first-line treatment (OR 4.53 [95%CI 1.28–16.00] p = 0.01), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) greater than 3 at the beginning of 2L (OR 9.07 [95%CI 1.82–45.16] p = 0.01) and CA-19.9 level higher than the upper limit of normal at the beginning of 2L (OR 7.83 [95%CI 1.30–49.97] p = 0.02) were independently associated with OS shorter than 3 months. The prognostic score classified patients into three prognostic groups (good, intermediate and poor) with significant differences in OS (p < 0.001). Conclusions TTP shorter than 4 months after first-line treatment, NLR greater than 3 and CA-19.9 level higher than the upper limit of normal at the beginning of 2L were associated with shorter overall survival. We developed a prognostic score that classifies patients with advanced PDAC into three prognostic groups after progression to the first-line. This score could help in the decision-making for 2L treatment (AU)