Validation of the CoVID-TE model as a tool to predict thrombosis, bleeding, and mortality in the oncology patient with Sars-Cov-2 infection: a study by the SEOM cancer and thrombosis group

ABSTRACT

Purpose The CoVID-TE model was developed with the aim of predicting venous thrombotic events (VTE) in cancer patients with Sars-Cov-2 infection. Moreover, it was capable of predicting hemorrhage and mortality 30 days following infection diagnosis. The model is pending validation. Methods/patients Multicenter retrospective study (10 centers). Adult patients with active oncologic disease/ antineoplastic therapy with Sars-Cov-2 infection hospitalized between March 1, 2020 and March 1. 2022 were recruited. The primary endpoint was to study the association between the risk categories of the CoVID-TE model and the occurrence of thrombosis using the Chi-Square test. Secondary endpoints were to demonstrate the association between these categories and the occurrence of post-diagnostic Sars-Cov-2 bleeding/ death events. The Kaplan–Meier method was also used to compare mortality by stratification. Results 263 patients were enrolled. 59.3% were men with a median age of 67 years. 73.8% had stage IV disease and lung cancer was the most prevalent tumor (24%). A total of 86.7% had an ECOG 0–2 and 77.9% were receiving active antineoplastic therapy. After a median follow-up of 6.83 months, the incidence of VTE, bleeding, and death 90 days after Sars-Cov-2 diagnosis in the low-risk group was 3.9% (95% CI 1.9–7.9), 4.5% (95% CI 2.3–8.6), and 52.5% (95% CI 45.2–59.7), respectively. For the high-risk group it was 6% (95% CI 2.6–13.2), 9.6% (95% CI 5.0–17.9), and 58.0% (95% CI 45.3–66.1). The Chi-square test for trends detected no statistically significant association between these variables (p > 0.05). Median survival in the low-risk group was 10.15 months (95% CI 3.84–16.46), while in the high-risk group it was 3.68 months (95% CI 0.0–7.79). The differences detected were not statistically significant (p = 0.375) (AU)