Evaluation of international population projections: lessons and experiences.

Global and regional population projections produced by the United Nations are evaluated and compared with actual population estimates. While general observations pertaining to the global level are made, the focus is on Latin America for selected years from 1950 to 1980. It is found that "the quality of population projections improved since 1950. In addition, short-term projections are found to be relatively more accurate than those for the long-term.... In the medium- or long-term projections, at least in the Latin American case, the assumptions regarding mortality were far from the real situation. The important factors in the projections are found to be in the order of base population, fertility and mortality."