[Elements of analysis of the demographic processes in the Northeast (Brazil].

PIP: Demographic trends in Northeast Brazil over the last 100 years are presented and analyzed. The most important finding is a constant decline in the population of the Northeast relative to the rest of the country (46.70% of the population of Brazil lived in the Northeast in 1872, 30.34% in 1970; the population growth rates in 1872 and 1960 were 1.41 and 2.49% for the Northeast and 2.50 and 3.09% for the rest of the country). This trend appears to be continuing and, in the absence of concious policy decisions to the contrary, there will be further depopulation of the Northeast before a situation of equilibrium is reached, with a uniform growth rate for the entire country. The inaccuracies found in the older census data and the lack of some demographic statistics in the present records are discussed and measures are suggested to improve data collection, in order to provide a sound basis for demographic policy. Population changes resulting from migration and differential natural growth, and the direct and indirect contributions of migration from the Northeast to the rest of the country, are analyzed. The trend toward urbanization is also discussed: a smaller percentage of the population lives in cities of 20,000 or more in the Northeast than in the rest of the country, but recently that percentage has been growing at a faster rate.^ieng