Equilibration and analysis of first-principles molecular dynamics simulations of water.

First-principles molecular dynamics (FPMD) simulations based on density functional theory are becoming increasingly popular for the description of liquids. In view of the high computational cost of these simulations, the choice of an appropriate equilibration protocol is critical. We assess two methods of estimation of equilibration times using a large dataset of first-principles molecular dynamics simulations of water. The Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor [A. Gelman and D. B. Rubin, Stat. Sci. 7, 457 (1992)] and the marginal standard error rule heuristic proposed by White [Simulation 69, 323 (1997)] are evaluated on a set of 32 independent 64-molecule simulations of 58 ps each, amounting to a combined cumulative time of 1.85 ns. The availability of multiple independent simulations also allows for an estimation of the variance of averaged quantities, both within MD runs and between runs. We analyze atomic trajectories, focusing on correlations of the Kohn-Sham energy, pair correlation functions, number of hydrogen bonds, and diffusion coefficient. The observed variability across samples provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with these quantities, thus facilitating meaningful comparisons of different approximations used in the simulations. We find that the computed diffusion coefficient and average number of hydrogen bonds are affected by a significant uncertainty in spite of the large size of the dataset used. A comparison with classical simulations using the TIP4P/2005 model confirms that the variability of the diffusivity is also observed after long equilibration times. Complete atomic trajectories and simulation output files are available online for further analysis.