Modelling the number of quitters needed to achieve New Zealand's Smokefree 2025 goal for Maori and non-Maori.

AIM: To estimate the numbers of people required to quit smoking in New Zealand to achieve the Smokefree 2025 goal and to compare these with current levels of quitting. METHODS: We used the established BODE3 tobacco forecasting model to project smoking prevalence separately for Maori and non-Maori to 2025 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. We then determined by what factor current annual cessation rates would have to increase to achieve an adult smoking prevalence of under 5% by the year 2025, while annual smoking uptake rates continued to follow BAU patterns. Comparisons were also made in terms of estimated current long-term quitters arising from official reports of smoking cessation service use (Quitline and face-to-face support services). RESULTS: To achieve a below 5% smoking prevalence by 2025, there would need to be additional averages of 8,400 Maori long-term quitters per year (5.2 times the BAU level on average) and 8,800 extra non-Maori quitters per year during 2018 to 2025 (1.9 times the BAU level on average). We estimated that the Quitline and funded face-to-face smoking cessation services are generating 2,000 Maori and 6,100 non-Maori long-term quitters per year. But this represents only 19% of Maori and only 34% of the non-Maori quitters required. CONCLUSIONS: This modelling work suggests that to achieve the Smokefree 2025 goal, there would need to be very major increases in quit rates. To achieve this goal the New Zealand Government will need to massively increase investment in established interventions (smoking cessation support, mass media) while continuing with substantial tobacco tax increases, or else add substantive new strategies into the intervention mix.