Investigating how perceived risk and availability of marijuana relate to marijuana use among adolescents in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay over time.

AIMS: Amid changing marijuana policies in the Southern Cone, we examined relationships between marijuana-related risk factors and marijuana use among adolescents in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay from 2001 to 2016. METHODS: Using cross-sectional surveys from 8th, 10th, and 12th graders and weighted time-varying effect models, we estimated associations between perceived risk (no/low risk versus moderate/great risk) and perceived availability (easy/very easy versus difficult/very difficult/not able to obtain) of marijuana, and any past-month marijuana use. RESULTS: In all countries, marijuana use increased over time and adolescents who perceived no/low risk and easy availability had higher odds of use. In Argentina, the bivariate risk/use association weakened from 2001 (OR = 15.24, 95%CI = 9.63, 24.12) to 2004 [OR = 3.86 (2.72, 5.48)] and strengthened until 2011 [OR = 8.22 (7.56, 10.30)]; the availability/use association strengthened from 2005 [OR = 5.32 (4.05, 6.98)] to 2009 [OR = 20.77 (15.57, 27.70)] and weakened until 2014 [OR = 11.00 (9.11, 13.27)]. In Chile, the risk/use association weakened from 2001 [OR = 7.22 (6.57, 7.95)] to 2015 [OR = 5.58 (4.82, 6.48)]; the availability/use association weakened from 2001 [OR = 5.92 (4.96, 7.06)] to 2015 [OR = 4.10 (3.15, 5.34)]. In Uruguay, the risk/use association weakened from 2003 [OR = 34.22 (22.76, 51.46)] to 2016 [OR = 6.23 (4.96, 7.83)]; the availability/use association weakened from 2005 [OR = 29.13 (13.39, 63.39) to 2007 [OR = 9.42 (3.85, 23.07)], and strengthened until 2016 [OR = 22.68 (12.03, 42.76)]. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the association between risk and use weakened in all countries, suggesting risk perceptions became a weaker determinant of marijuana use. Perceived availability remained strongly associated with use and may become an increasingly important driver of use (particularly in Uruguay and Argentina).