Predicting effectiveness of the V114 vaccine against invasive pneumococcal disease in children.

BACKGROUND: The potential impact of new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) is assessed by using immune responses to predict their effectiveness against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). This analysis predicted the serotype-specific effectiveness against IPD of a new 15-valent PCV (V114) for the serotypes shared with a 13-valent PCV (PCV13), in a US pediatric population given a 3 + 1 dosing regimen. METHODS: Beginning with the known serotype-specific antibody concentrations after vaccination with placebo, 7-valent PCV (PCV7) and PCV13, reverse cumulative distribution curves were used, along with published serotype-specific vaccine effectiveness of PCV7 and PCV13, to derive a protective antibody concentration (Cp) for each PCV13 serotype in V114. Serotype-specific effectiveness was predicted using the Cp estimates and the respective serotype-specific antibody concentrations of placebo and V114 recipients in recent pediatric clinical trials. RESULTS: Predicted serotype-specific V114 effectiveness values ranged from 86% to 99% for PCV7 serotypes and from 59% to 97% for (non-PCV7) PCV13 serotypes. CONCLUSIONS: V114 serotype-specific effectiveness against IPD in a US pediatric population was predicted to be largely comparable to that of PCV7 and PCV13 for shared serotypes, with models suggesting likelihood of high overall benefit gained from increased serotype 3 effectiveness, and additional protection against serotypes 22 F and 33 F.