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Effects of climate change on forest plantation productivity in Chile.
Carrasco, Gonzalo; Almeida, Auro C; Falvey, Mark; Olmedo, Guillermo Federico; Taylor, Peter; Santibañez, Fernando; Coops, Nicholas C.
Affiliation
  • Carrasco G; Investigaciones Forestales Bioforest S.A., Concepción, Chile.
  • Almeida AC; Land and Water, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
  • Falvey M; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, and Meteodata Ltd., Santiago, Chile.
  • Olmedo GF; Investigaciones Forestales Bioforest S.A., Concepción, Chile.
  • Taylor P; Land and Water, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
  • Santibañez F; Departamento de Ingeniería y Suelos, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
  • Coops NC; Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Glob Chang Biol ; 28(24): 7391-7409, 2022 12.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36059096
Forest plantations in Chile occupy more than 2.2 million ha and are responsible for 2.1% of the GDP of the country's economy. The ability to accurately predictions of plantations productivity under current and future climate has an impact can enhance on forest management and industrial wood production. The use of process-based models to predict forest growth has been instrumental in improving the understanding and quantifying the effects of climate variability, climate change, and the impact of atmospheric CO2 concentration and management practices on forest growth. This study uses the 3-PG model to predict future forest productivity Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus radiata. The study integrates climate data from global circulation models used in CMIP5 for scenarios RCP26 and RCP85, digital soil maps for physical and chemical variables. Temporal and spatial tree growth inventories were used to compare with the 3-PG predictions. The results indicated that forest productivity is predicted to potentially increase stand volume (SV) over the next 50 years by 26% and 24% for the RCP26 scenario and between 73% and 62% for the RCP85 scenario for E. globulus and P. radiata, respectively. The predicted increases can be explained by a combination of higher level of atmospheric CO2 , air temperatures closer to optimum than current, and increases in tree water use efficiency. If the effect of CO2 is not considered, the predicted differences of SV for 2070 are 16% and 14% for the RCP26 scenario and 22% and 14% for RCP85 for the two species. While shifts in climate and increasing CO2 are likely to benefit promote higher productivity, other factors such as lack insufficient availability of soil nutrients, events such as increasing frequency and duration of droughts, longer periods of extreme temperatures, competing vegetation, and occurrence of new pests and diseases may compromise these potential gains.
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Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Climate Change / Carbon Dioxide Type of study: Prognostic_studies Country/Region as subject: America do sul / Chile Language: En Journal: Glob Chang Biol Year: 2022 Document type: Article Affiliation country: Chile Country of publication: United kingdom

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Climate Change / Carbon Dioxide Type of study: Prognostic_studies Country/Region as subject: America do sul / Chile Language: En Journal: Glob Chang Biol Year: 2022 Document type: Article Affiliation country: Chile Country of publication: United kingdom