Long-term ambient ozone exposure and incident cardiovascular diseases: National cohort evidence in China.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Long-term ozone (O3) exposure has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in mounting cohort evidence, yet its relationship with incident CVD was poorly understood, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experiencing high ambient air pollution. METHODS: We carried out a nationwide perspective cohort study from 2010 through 2018 by dynamically enrolling 36948 participants across Chinese mainland. Warm-season (April-September) O3 concentrations were estimated using satellite-based machine-learning models with national coverage. Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying exposures was employed to evaluate the association of long-term O3 exposure with incident CVD (overall CVD, hypertension, stroke, and coronary heart disease [CHD]). Assuming causality, a counterfactual framework was employed to estimate O3-attributable CVD burden based on the exposure-response (E-R) relationship obtained from this study. Decomposition analysis was utilized to quantify the contributions of four key direct driving factors (O3 exposure, population size, age structure, and incidence rate) to the net change of O3-related CVD cases between 2010 and 2018. RESULTS: A total of 4428 CVD, 2600 hypertension, 1174 stroke, and 337 CHD events were reported during 9-year follow-up. Each 10-µg/m³ increase in warm-season O3 was associated with an incident risk of 1.078 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.050-1.106) for overall CVD, 1.098 (95% CI 1.062-1.135) for hypertension, 1.073 (95% CI 1.019-1.131) for stroke, and 1.150 (95% CI 1.038-1.274) for CHD, respectively. We observed no departure from linear E-R relationships of O3 exposure with overall CVD (Pnonlinear= 0.22), hypertension (Pnonlinear= 0.19), stroke (Pnonlinear= 0.70), and CHD (Pnonlinear= 0.44) at a broad concentration range of 60-160 µg/m3. Compared with rural dwellers, those residing in urban areas were at significantly greater O3-associated incident risks of overall CVD, hypertension, and stroke. We estimated 1.22 million (10.6% of overall CVD in 2018) incident CVD cases could be attributable to ambient O3 pollution in 2018, representing an overall 40.9% growth (0.36 million) compared to 2010 (0.87 million, 9.7% of overall CVD in 2010). This remarkable rise in O3-attributable CVD cases was primary driven by population aging (+24.0%), followed by increase in O3 concentration (+10.5%) and population size (+6.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term O3 exposure was associated with an elevated risk and burden of incident CVD in Chinese adults, especially among urban dwellers. Our findings underscored policy priorities of implementing joint control measures for fine particulate matter and O3 in the context of accelerated urbanization and population aging in China.